Could clearance rates be key to addressing criminal justice failures?

Introduction

There is a poorly understood criminal justice metric that might just be a key component of fixing a faltering system that has gotten more expensive and, arguably, less effective at protecting public safety over decades. Clearance rates are the closest metric we have to evaluating how well the criminal justice system does at catching people who commit crimes. Clearance rates measure the percentage of reported crimes that result in a suspect being arrested, in an attempt to approximate the effectiveness of police agencies at that critical job. This brief is particularly interested in how effective the police are at solving violent crimes, a top concern of the public.

The effectiveness of the U.S. criminal enforcement system in solving violent crimes—as reflected by clearance rates—has been flat with a slightly downward trend over time. When focusing just on homicides, those rates have suffered a decades-long slide since the mid-1960s, with an even more pronounced decline in the years since 2019. Even as crime rates have trended down fairly consistently since 1993, and even though police spending has dramatically increased, not declined, since 1982, the percentage of violent crimes reported that get “cleared” (solved) has been stagnant at best since about the mid-1960s.

To put a finer point on the increased spending on police, the Urban Institute concluded from analyzing census data that “[f]rom 1977 to 2021, in 2021 inflation-adjusted dollars, state and local government spending on police increased from $47 billion to $135 billion, an increase of 189%.” In addition, a study by ABC-owned television stations examining budgets of more than 100 cities and counties determined that 83% spent at least 2% more on police in 2022 than they spent in 2019.

Early indications suggest that some of the steeper declines in clearance rates that were experienced after 2019 bounced back somewhat in 2023 and 2024, but there is no conclusive data yet, and the long-term trend since the 1980s remains in place. The chaos of the pandemic years likely plays an outsize role in the data for those years so, looking back in hindsight, the accelerated decline in rates may prove those years to be outliers. Even so, the long-term trends demonstrate that vast improvement can be had in clearance rates across the criminal system.

In the mid-1960s, more than 90% of murders were solved nationally (Figure 1). By 1990, that percentage had dropped into the 60s. In 2022, only 37% of violent crimes were cleared, and just over half of murders, according to FBI data. These are historic lows for a statistic that has been collected using the same methodology since at least 1960. Meanwhile, peer nations in Western Europe and Asia reportedly performed as well as the U.S. did in the 1960s, and their numbers have remained much higher than the figures for the U.S. Note that though clearance rates for property crimes and lower-level offenses are typically much worse than those for violent crimes, they have also remained more stable over time (Figure 2). As an example, in 2022, 36.7% of violent crimes reported to police were cleared, compared with 12.1% of property crimes.

When violent crimes are not prosecuted, or perpetrators don’t face punishment, it harms public safety and causes fear in the community; if left unchecked, this can lead to rampant disrespect for the law and eventually produce chaos. The perpetrator remains unidentified and loose in the community, able to commit further crimes.

Allowing cases to languish unsolved has additional implications for deterrence. According to the U.S. Department of Justice, “Research shows clearly that the chance of being caught is a vastly more effective deterrent than even draconian punishment.” So even as our prisons and jails are bursting with people being confined for ever-longer time periods, there is evidence that our policy choices are not yielding effective deterrence, let alone crafted to achieve optimal results. Indeed, the evidence is well-established that long sentences are not the only or even best way to address crime. When roughly half of murderers can expect to get away with it, the deterrent effect of amping penalties without increasing the likelihood of being caught will be limited. With property crime, those incentives are even worse since those are less likely to be cleared.

Failing to solve cases is also a severe disservice to victims, who are rarely healed or compensated by our present system. In fact, surveys show that victims of violent crime prefer prevention strategies to long prison sentences.

So why aren’t clearance rates the most important criminal justice metric we have? Why have many members of the public not even heard of them? This brief will discuss clearance rates, their merits, and their decades-long downward trajectory. Why do clearance rates matter? How can the abysmal rates seen today be improved? Can public awareness of this crisis lead to action? What are the solutions?

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Source: https://reason.org/policy-brief/could-clearance-rates-be-key-to-addressing-criminal-justice-failures/