Canada banned flavored vapes. Cigarette sales surged.

New research has added to the already substantial body of evidence showing that banning flavored e-cigarettes increases traditional combustible cigarette sales. Policymakers should reconsider flavor restrictions in light of mounting evidence that such policies generate unintended consequences that undermine their public health objectives.

A November 2025 study by economists Brad Davis, Abigail Friedman, and Michael Pesko, analyzing Canadian sales data from 2018 to 2023, finds that provincial e-cigarette flavor restrictions increased cigarette sales by nearly 10 percent. Of the six provinces analyzed, three banned all flavored e-cigarettes, with the other three limited flavored vape sales to adult-only vape shops. Two provinces, Ontario and Saskatchewan, also had exemptions for mint/menthol flavors.

When provinces eliminated flavored e-cigarettes from convenience stores and gas stations— which accounted for 98 percent of vape sales in the study sample—flavored vape sales fell by more than 96 percent for menthol products and 99.9 percent for other flavored varieties. Some vapers switched to tobacco-flavored or unflavored vapes, which saw sales rise by 123 percent. But many others returned to traditional cigarettes, the most dangerous way to consume nicotine.

Canada has some of the world’s strictest tobacco regulations. Unlike the United States, Canada bans menthol cigarettes nationwide, restricts flavored cigars, mandates plain packaging for combustible tobacco, and caps nicotine levels in vaping products. If flavor bans were going to work anywhere without triggering substitution back to cigarettes, Canada would be a leading candidate.

“These findings suggest that policymakers should proceed with caution in restricting NVP [nicotine vaping products] flavors: Harm due to these policies’ unintended effects on cigarette consumption may outweigh the public health benefits from their impact on NVP use,” the study’s authors write in their conclusion.

Previous studies of U.S. sales data also found that e-cigarette flavor restrictions increased cigarette purchases, with approximately 12 additional cigarettes sold for every e-cigarette pod no longer sold due to flavor bans. Research examining young adults aged 18-29 found that flavor bans reduced daily vaping by 3.6 percentage points while increasing daily cigarette smoking by 2.2 percentage points. There are now multiple studies using different methodologies and datasets reaching the same conclusion: When you ban e-cigarette flavors, a large portion of vapers don’t quit nicotine—they switch to cigarettes.

E-cigarettes, though not risk-free, are safer than combustible cigarettes, according to the Food and Drug Administration and Canada’s own public health agency, Health Canada. Smoking is the leading cause of preventable death in the U.S., with approximately 480,000 Americans dying annually from smoking-related disease. The same is true for Canada, with about 48,000 deaths per year due to tobacco use. When people substitute cigarettes for e-cigarettes, they’re trading a significantly less harmful alternative for a far more dangerous one.

Seven U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and over 185 U.S. localities have already implemented some kind of e-cigarette flavor restrictions. This year, we could see more states considering the same policies. The trap policymakers often fall prey to when considering how to regulate e-cigarettes is treating vaping primarily as a youth initiation problem while ignoring its role in harm reduction for adult smokers. Flavors surely appeal to some youth, but they also appeal to adult smokers who switch away from cigarettes. Banning flavors removes a tool that helps people quit the most dangerous form of nicotine consumption.

Furthermore, banning flavors isn’t necessary to curb youth vaping. In the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and many other jurisdictions where flavors are widely available, youth vaping is minimal. In 2019, the federal government raised the tobacco age to 21 to address concerns around youth vaping. Continued enforcement of laws already on the statute books, as well as education to prevent youth from starting any nicotine use, can protect youth without taking away safer alternatives from adult smokers.  Policies that drive people from vaping back to smoking don’t protect public health—they endanger it. Under current patterns of e-cigarette use, vaping is estimated to avoid 1.8 million premature deaths between 2013 and 2060, with 38.9 million life years gained. State legislatures considering e-cigarette flavor bans should learn from the mistakes in Canada and other U.S. jurisdictions that opted for the blunt tool of prohibition over harm reduction.

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