The impact of declining fertility rates on public schools already struggling with significant enrollment decreases

Earlier this month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released provisional data for 2025, showing that the nation’s nearly two-decade baby bust continued, with U.S. fertility rates hitting a historic low. Since 2007, when the so-called birth dearth began, the number of births in the U.S. has dropped by 18%. This means that nearly 718,000 fewer children were born in 2025 than in 2007.

In the long term, this significantly affects public schools because their funding is based on enrollment. And fewer students means less money. 

Public schools are already feeling the squeeze of reduced enrollment. Since 2020, national enrollment numbers have dropped to 49,516,361 students — a loss of almost 1.3 million students, or -2.5% — as of 2024, the most recent year with complete data available. 

According to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), public school enrollment is projected to decline by another 2.6 million students by 2031, which would mean a loss of four million public school students since 2020. (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: Public school enrollment and projections 2020-31

NCES only anticipates that nine states–Alabama, Florida, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Utah–will increase their number of public school students between 2022 and 2031. Enrollments in two states, Iowa and Nebraska, are projected to remain the same. Overall, NCES predicts that 36 states will lose students by 2031, including California, Texas, Georgia, Ohio, Virginia, New York, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. On average, states are expected to lose 4.7% of their public school student counts nationwide. 

Figure 2 shows how public school enrollment may fluctuate in the coming years.

Figure 2: Estimated percent change in public school enrollment by state as of 2031

New York and California’s combined trajectories alone–losses of about 347,000 and 931,000 students, respectively–would account for 47% of the nation’s projected enrollment losses in 2031. 

Bigger picture, NCES’ projections may underestimate upcoming enrollment declines due to a variety of evolving factors. Seventeen states have launched universal private school choice programs, likely accelerating enrollment losses.  

In 2025, Gallup polling showed that public schools have yet to fully regain parents’ trust to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels, with 74% of parents–eight percentage points less than in 2019–saying they were satisfied with their public school. 

With forecasts of fewer students in the years to come, school districts can’t keep doing the same things they’ve been doing if they want to successfully compete in a more robust education marketplace. 

Strong K-12 open enrollment laws, which let families choose the best public school for them, combined with funding mechanisms that let dollars follow students to other school districts, can make schools more appealing. help pad student departures by creating greater flexibility within the public school system. But flexibility alone isn’t enough. If school districts want to attract and retain students, they have to give students a reason to stay or choose them. 

Additionally, public schools should get back to basics: teaching kids how to read and do math. The 2024 National Assessment of Educational Progress results showed that one in three 12th graders’ reading level scored below basic, and 45% of them scored at the same level in math, the worst results in two decades.

Addressing academic shortcomings can help districts attract and retain students. But many schools and districts will still have to rightsize as they face shrinking K-12 populations and increased competition. 

Instead of ignoring school closures, school districts should face them head-on, as Colorado did when it permanently closed 51 schools after enrollments dropped by more than 5% following the pandemic. These closures are difficult for districts, communities and families, but taxpayers shouldn’t have to pay for half-empty school buildings.

Additionally, state policymakers should take steps to identify underutilized school buildings to help districts and taxpayers reduce costs. For instance, Indiana state law requires school districts to prepare for school closures when local enrollment drops by 10% within a five-year period. 

Lawmakers should also consider more comprehensive reforms, such as eliminating hold-harmless provisions that fund schools based on outdated enrollment counts, effectively funding ghost students. Basing per-pupil funding on recent enrollment counts incentivizes school districts to rightsize.

Overall, school districts face fiscal challenges in the near future as student counts shrink and competition with private schools, homeschooling, and microschools intensifies. In this new education landscape, traditional public schools must adapt, innovating and seriously considering students’ and parents’ learning priorities.

From the states

School choice proposals advance in New Hampshire, Tennessee, and Oklahoma, while the Kentucky and Kansas legislatures override their governors’ vetoes to opt into the federal tax-credit scholarship program.

In New Hampshire, Senate Bill 101-FN, which would expand the state’s open enrollment policy to allow students to transfer to any public school with open seats, was approved by the House Education Policy and Administration Committee and must be approved by the House chamber before proceeding to the House Education Finance Committee. If codified, New Hampshire would receive an A+ rather than an F grade in Reason Foundation’s annual analysis of every state’s open enrollment laws.

The Tennessee Senate passed House Bill 2532, which would expand the state’s private school scholarship program. If signed into law, 35,000 students could receive a scholarship valued at about $7,500 per student, instead of just 15,000 as the current law permits. The bill awaits Gov. Bill Lee’s signature to become law.

In South Carolina, the Senate Education Committee passed a bill that would expand the number of private school scholarships to 15,000, but would now exclude homeschool students from participating in the program. Legislators claim they didn’t intend to include homeschools in their original proposal, which was passed last year.

The Oklahoma House passed House Bill 3705, which would increase the funding for the state’s tax-credit scholarship program from $250 million to $275 million. Individual scholarships are valued between $5,000 to $7,500 per student, paying for private school tuition.

State legislatures overrode Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly’s vetoes of school choice bills, opting the states into the federal tax-credit scholarship program. 

Meanwhile, Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs and Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers vetoed proposals, Senate Bill 1142 and Assembly Bill 602, respectively, which would have opted their states into the new federal tax-credit scholarship program. Each state’s executive cited different reasons for rejecting the proposals. Gov. Hobbs rejected the bill because federal guidance has not yet been issued. Meanwhile, Gov. Evers criticized the program due to its lack of school accountability. While governors’ decisions to opt their states out of participation prevent students in those states from receiving scholarships, residents can still donate to scholarship funds in other states.

To date, 29 states have announced intentions to participate in the federal tax-credit scholarship program. The governors of Arizona and Wisconsin vetoed legislation to opt in. 

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz announced that opting into the federal tax-credit scholarship was “never going to happen,” MPRnews reported in March. Set to launch in 2027, the new law allows individual taxpayers to contribute up to $1,700 annually to an approved scholarship-granting organization. Scholarship recipients may use these funds to cover approved education expenses, such as private school tuition, tutoring, or school uniforms. The map below shows the states that have announced decisions to participate in the program.

Figure 3: States that have announced decisions to participate in the federal tax-credit scholarship program

What to watch

Two more states opted into the federal tax-credit scholarship program; a Missouri County Judge struck down a lawsuit against the state’s private school scholarship program. 

A lawsuit claiming that Missouri’s private school scholarship program was unconstitutional was thrown out by Cole County Judge Brian Stumpe. He ruled that state law does not prohibit the legislature from funding private school choice programs. Moreover, the judge also “dismissed the plaintiff’s petition with prejudice, meaning the plaintiffs cannot refile the lawsuit,” KOMU reported.

The latest from Reason Foundation

The impact of K-12 open enrollment on student achievement 

Students with disabilities account for more than one in 10 open enrollment participants.

The case for open enrollment

Open enrollment: ‘Wrecking ball of chaos’ or a ‘release valve of opportunity’ for New Hampshire?

Open enrollment funding is straightforward for states and schools

A teacher strike would hurt kids, but LAUSD can’t afford to give in to the union’s demands

Senate Bill 101 would strengthen New Hampshire’s cross-district open enrollment program

Recommended reading 

The Five Evasions in Education
Steven F. Wilson at National Affairs

“America pays a fearsome price for the evasions of its K–12 system. Underestimated and undereducated children cannot realize their full potential. The most marginalized suffer the greatest harm. Advocates of social-justice education proclaim high purposes — to democratize education, to redress the wrongs of racism, to advance equity. In truth, they deepen exclusion and ignorance. Instruction languishes, students continue to fall further and further behind each day, and racial and economic disparities widen.”

The Graduation Gap: When Students Earn a High School Diploma But Still Can’t Do Math
Chad Aldeman at The74

“Because states define high school math proficiency differently, the precise gaps are not perfectly comparable across states. But in many places, the disparities are shockingly large. In California, for example, 86% of high school students are graduating within four years, yet just 30% of 11th graders pass the state math test. Florida reports a 90% graduation rate while 44% of students reached only level 3 out of 5 on end-of-course exams in algebra and geometry.”

The Battle Hymn of the Refugee Teacher
Annika Hernandez and Robert Pondiscio at Education Next

“While it is common to hear laments about teacher pay, hours, or burnout, the teachers we interviewed don’t fit these familiar narratives. They spoke of a slow erosion of purpose, the sense that their craft was being hollowed out by incoherent curricula, ineffective instructional orthodoxies, politicization, and ever-shifting priorities and pedagogical fads.

Teachers who once imagined themselves as stewards of literature, history, science, and mathematics described feeling instead like troubleshooters, counselors, compliance officers, or test-prep technicians. Many still loved children—fiercely—but increasingly questioned whether their schools still loved learning.”

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Source: https://reason.org/education-newsletter/the-impact-of-declining-fertility-rates-on-public-schools-already-struggling-with-significant-enrollment-decreases/