Trump's Trade War Caused a $15 Billion Decline in U.S. Farm Sales to China

When President Donald Trump announced broad and arbitrary import taxes last April—tariffs that the Supreme Court would later determine were illegal—he said they would uplift domestic producers, even though many economists predicted the opposite. More than a year later, Americans can safely say that the economists were right.

Trump’s tariffs have not only failed in their central aim—to bring manufacturing jobs back to America—they’ve also hurt Americans across a range of economic sectors, including agriculture.

That’s the latest analysis from the North Dakota State University (NDSU) Agricultural Trade Monitor, which recently found that between March 2025 and February 2026, annualized U.S. agricultural exports to China dropped by nearly $15 billion. This is almost $5 billion more in lost trade to China than what American farmers saw during the first Trump administration.

The market for soybeans was especially hard-hit. In 2024, more than $12 billion worth of American soybeans were sent to China. In 2025, that figure declined by three-quarters to just $3 billion. The Trade Monitor estimates that $6.8 billion worth of the drop was caused directly by Trump’s trade war, which saw tariffs on Chinese goods rise from 20 percent to 135 percent, before falling to around 50 percent last year. China retaliated in kind, levying a 147 percent, and later a 32 percent tariff, on American agricultural exports. 

While most American farmers have suffered under Trump’s tariff regime, the study found that the trade war’s effects were especially concentrated “in the Corn Belt, Great Plains, California, and Texas.” Iowa farmers took the biggest hit: $1.2 billion worth of China-bound exports were impacted.

The study’s authors caution that their “estimates measure lost exports to China, not lost exports overall.” Some of the corn, wheat, soy, and pork that would have otherwise been sold to Chinese customers was probably redirected to Mexico, Canada, or Japan instead, where the farmers made some of their money back. But certainly not all of it: In December, Trump authorized an $11 billion farm bailout, a tacit admission that his economic policies—largely defined by the trade war with China—have failed to make American farmers better off.

We may soon know precisely how many billions of dollars Trump’s trade war has cost them: “A companion analysis…is in preparation,” the NDSU authors write, which will take redirected trade outflows into account.

Despite the losses that farmers suffered in 2025, some hope remains. The study’s authors write that if the framework produced at a recent summit in Beijing is implemented, agricultural exports could rebound quickly and even “exceed the 2024 export level by approximately $4 to $5 billion.” But the Chinese government has not confirmed its commitment to the scheme, and farmers are unsure if it will ever come to fruition.

Their fears are understandable. As the last year has shown, Trump’s trade agreements often come with empty promises, while his ability to execute plans beneficial to the American economy cannot be counted upon.

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