Why Pashinyan Does Not Want to Support Vardanyan Anymore

In a recent news conference, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was asked whether he is pressing Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to free Vardanyan and other Armenians remaining in Azerbaijani captivity.

“How did it happen so that Ruben Vardanyan renounced his Russian citizenship?” he replied. “Who advised or instructed him to take that step? Who sent him to Armenia, Nagorno Karabakh and for what purpose and with what promises?”

Vardanyan, who held the second-highest post in Karabakh’s leadership from November 2022 to February 2023, was arrested at an Azerbaijani checkpoint in the Lachin corridor as he fled the region along with tens of thousands of its ordinary residents following an Azerbaijani military offensive. He was charged with “financing terrorism,” illegally entering Karabakh and supplying its armed forces with military equipment.  

Today, Azerbaijan is imprisoning him for these crimes, yet this does not seem to bother Armenia’s Prime Minister.   The question is, why?   The Armenian government under Pashinyan recently faced a Russian coup attempt and has accused a group of people of training ethnic Armenians at a military base in Russia in order to oust the democratically elected sitting Armenian prime minister from power.  

This is the same Armenian Prime Minister who has been distancing himself from Moscow in recent times, culminating in Armenia’s withdrawal from the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization.  Armenia’s Investigative Committee recently announced the arrest of three people and the inclusion of four others on a wanted list for their desire to help Putin oust Armenia’s democratically elected leader. They stated that the seven suspects are Armenian citizens and Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians with close ties to Moscow, exactly like Vardanyan. They have been charged with usurping power, and if found guilty, face up to 15 years imprisonment.

Over the course of 2024, one year after the Russian oligarch Vardanyan was imprisoned, this group recruited an undisclosed number of Armenian citizens and former residents of Nagorno-Karabakh under the pretext of undergoing training sessions in Russia, along with a monthly stipend of ₽220,000 ($2,400). The recruits were told that these trainings would teach them how to use heavy weaponry, and that upon returning to Armenia, they would be able to utilize their new skills in carrying out combat duty, as well as in training others. 

According to Armenian authorities, once the recruits were transferred to Russia, they underwent preliminary checks, including a polygraph test, ‘in order to find out their personal characteristics and political views, the relationship with the Armenian law enforcement bodies’, etc. If they passed this initial test, the recruits were then deployed at the Russian Arbat Battalion’s military base to undergo combat training. It was only at this point that the recruits were told the actual goal of the training sessions — ‘to return to the Republic of Armenia and remove the current authority’.

An Armenian fact-checking outlet, Fip.am, reported that the Arbat Battalion was established in 2022, the very same year Vardanyan ruled the Karabakh separatist enclave, and that it primarily consisted of ethnic Armenians. They added that the battalion had signed an agreement with the Russian Defense Ministry. They also noted that the unit has been fighting in Ukraine.  The uncovering of this battalion makes Pashinyan ponder, what role did Vardanyan have in implementing Moscow’s sinister intentions for his country?    Did Vardanyan denounce his Russian citizenship and come to Karabakh only in order to weaken me at the expense of Moscow?   And if Vardanyan had any role in helping Russia to overthrow his rule, why would he want to help Vardanyan go anywhere outside of his Azerbaijani jail cell?   

Thus, Moscow, by attempting to topple the Pashinyan government, has now helped the Pashinyan government to turn against the Russian oligarch Vardanyan, who like the group that was recently arrested was very close to Putin.   Indeed, these days, the Armenian leadership prefers Iran, France and America to Russia.   In fact, in the wake of the coup attempt, they have grown weary of having a conflict with Baku, who does respect Armenia’s right to rule in Armenia proper, unlike Moscow.     This greatly enhances the prospects for peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.   Thus, given the turn of events, Pashinyan has become an ally of Baku when it comes to possessing a desire to keep Vardanyan behind bars.   

On the other side of the coin, in the wake of Putin’s recent visit to Azerbaijan, the Armenians look with apprehension at the idea of Russia getting closer to Azerbaijan.   They view it as a threat to their interest to distance themselves from Moscow, especially in light of the recent coup attempt.   Therefore, they are hostile to Azerbaijan’s anti-vector policy, which seeks to have a balanced relationship where Baku supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sends them humanitarian aid while helping the West to wean off Russian oil and gas by offering itself as a viable alternative, while at the same time doing so in a way that will not antagonize Putin.  The Azerbaijanis see how much Ukraine has suffered for wanting to be part of NATO and has chosen to be smart over right.

However, the Armenian leadership has not chosen to be smart over right.   Despite their dependency on the Russian economy as a land-locked former Soviet bloc country, they have taken actions hostile to Moscow in retribution for their lack of assertiveness in helping Armenia in recent years. And for this reason, when Moscow gets closer to Baku, they grow even more hostile to Moscow, as their successful weening off of Moscow depends squarely on Armenia making peace with Azerbaijan and the Armenians do not want the Russians to sabotage this for them.   For this reason, they are hostile towards any rapprochement between Baku and Moscow, and are highly critical of Azerbaijan taking any steps in this direction.