The Re-Introduction of Ranged Ballistic Missiles

Russian ICBM and IRBM Missile Systems

The War in Ukraine has done more to deplete Cold War military stockpiles than any other event during and since the Cold War, including weather and rust. The dwindling numbers of tanks, troop carriers and artillery pieces litter the woods and fields of Ukraine, being disabled and destroyed by new simple drones and old artillery shells. If the war will not end by negotiation and diplomacy, it will likely be mired in more bloodshed from using ally equipment and a small number of newly made modern equipment, still costing many more lives than either side is willing to admit. With conventional land forces and sea forces reaching their limits, air forces being deterred by modern air defense systems, and missile systems being altered for purposes they are not designed for, the remaining strength of Russian forces are still preserved in their long range tactical missile forces.

A recent strike by an unconfirmed ballistic missile system by Russian forces in Ukraine appeared to use a type of SS-27 or SS-29 ICBM in the strike. While it was not a nuclear armed version of those types of missiles, it performed as a Multiple Launch Warhead missile, or MIRV, hitting the target with multiple warheads from one missile system. While it appears to be a smaller RS-26 Rubezh type Regional ranged missile version, or IRBM, it was likely one based on the SS-27 MIRV type. This non-nuclear version was altered to send a message to Ukraine’s allies without escalating tensions past a point of no return by using nuclear warheads in the field.

The rationale Russia used in deploying the SS-27 type missile was a response to ever increasing allowances by Ukraine’s allies in using longer range artillery against targets in Russia. Russian air defenses do not seem capable of stopping many of these munitions, and Russia has suffered internal losses due to these systems. Russia’s intact long range ballistic missile forces have rarely been used in a war, and is a fully equipped nuclear deterrent maintained over generations. With few options available with conventional arms, and a message of strength wanted to be demonstrated by Russia, the mystery ballistic missile has been re-introduced onto the battlefield. While inventory and a show of strength enabled the use of the SS-27 variant, diplomacy is likely still the best option by both sides over the future use of any ballistic IRBM systems.

New conflicts in the Middle East might bring another situation where these regional missiles may be used by Russia. With Russia’s most important ally in the Middle East being on their last legs recently, Russia may decide to use whatever systems they have left in helping maintain their ally’s regime. In the most recent scenario, the opposing forces do not have any modern systems to respond to Russia, and it is likely the case that adversaries in the Middle East may ignore the use of such weapons in certain circumstance as long as it is not nuclear armed, and does not create a big disadvantage to the US or their allies in the region. Diplomacy may make for strange bedfellows, and could alter the power dynamic in the region in ways previously unheard of due to the recent crisis. Diplomacy in one area may also provide the opportunity to end the conflict in Ukraine, and refocus on common threats to both the East and West. Only time will tell, but these days things seem to always escalate quickly and unpredictably.