The Regent

An Iranian F-14 Tomcat, similar to the one stolen by Mavrick and Miles Teller in the latest Top Gun 2 movie, meets it’s fate soon after this image was taken by a targeting camera.

The pending change of the game in the Middle East has often depended on who rules in Iran, and the type of Government and allies it wishes to pursue as one of the oldest cultures in the region. With the collapse of the old Regent in Iran in 1979, and the massive assaults on some of the other oldest cultures in the region since 2014, a change in Government might show that old cultures in the region may still have a path to a future in their indigenous homelands. The question remains however, will this pending change actually take place, and who has the right and ability to rule the country once it takes shape?

The voice of the Government in exile from Iran is a descendant of the former Shah of Iran, and he has actively promoted freeing Iran from the current regime with a great deal of support from international opposition to the regime and his people abroad. An example of a Regent reforming a country from one party rule towards a democratic system came about in the late 70s in Spain. Spain was controlled by General Franco since before the Second World War, and was almost frozen in tyranny apart from the rest of Europe under his dictatorship. When General Franco of Spain was on his last years, he apparently had asked that King Juan Carlos I of Spain continue his regime by passing the mantle of leadership to a new one party ruler, to which the King decided to free Spain from one party rule and guide the country into an elected and democratic government. While King Juan Carlos I was present inside the country for many years and was not in direct conflict with the former regime, he decided to guide his nation away from Franco’s regime towards a democratic future. While Spain is now considered one of the most free countries in the world, reforming a nation from decades of one party rule is no simple act.

Questions in how to handle former victims of regimes was a major societal discussion in Spain, as a change in Government may not remove all those with state secrets, with embedded unearned wealth, or even those who committed atrocities against their own citizens in the decades long control of the state. Countries in Latin America, who also suffered under one party rule or rule by military Government in the Cold War period, almost all moved away from their military Governments. Despite this major reformation, they were hard pressed to remove the agents of chaos still present in their democratically elected Governments post dictatorial rule. The hindrance in building a democracy was always plagued by enshrined interests linked to former regimes, especially ones connected to former “Disappeared” victims of the military junta, with those having knowledge of the crimes never properly facing justice. Regime change is always difficult when attempting it from abroad, but can be just as complex if done internally with local interest groups leading the charge.

Spain fell under its own weight, but the cause of change really came about from the death of the one man running the entire country. Change in Iran, if it comes, will come from decisions from those running the decades long regime to engage in conflict it was not able to win or manage from within the country. It could be the case that any type of one person or one party regime has a shelf life, as they tend of often unravel after 60 to 70s years of internal chaos if not directly challenged from abroad. When they do not collapse from the passing of Dear Leader, they often commit to self fulfilling conclusions by challenging their neighbours while in a cocoon of corruption and blind, uninformed ambition. When those in power are at the end of their days due to age or illness, the only value they really are satiated by is one of legacy and reputation. This is often why their loss is most effective with a demonstration of weakness and shattering of ego. A show of strength is often as powerful as strength itself if it continues to maintain their control over an oppressed population. It is why chaos and anarchy is used by regimes as their main weapon of dictatorship….especially by the weakest of regimes. It is why weakness fears the truth, and will do everything against an army of words and letters.