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Moscow’s Last Bastion in the South Caucasus Crumbles

Wednesday, September 10, 2025 16:25

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Moscow’s centuries-long ambition to dominate the South Caucasus is collapsing. Armenia’s defiance, Azerbaijan’s sharp responses, and the West’s growing involvement have shattered the Kremlin’s “backyard” myth. The region no longer bows to imperial dictates — a new era is unfolding.

Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus is rapidly shrinking. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s open rejection of Moscow’s “divide and rule” policies became a symbolic turning point. Once considered a loyal ally, Yerevan now openly questions the value of its ties with the Kremlin.

Baku and Tbilisi, for their part, had long voiced frustration with Moscow’s imperialist posture. Russia’s tactic of exploiting ethnic divisions to maintain dominance has lost its previous force. Georgia’s experience with Abkhazia and South Ossetia proves that separatism as an instrument of control is unsustainable.

At the funeral of an Azerbaijani soldier who died in the war in Ukraine, the presence of his Armenian comrade and his words to the grieving mother — “From now on, you are also my mother” — struck a deep emotional chord across the region. This humane gesture stood in stark contrast to the hostility cultivated by Moscow and resonated as a powerful call for peace and reconciliation.

In late 2024, a civilian Azerbaijani plane was shot down by a Russian Pantsir-S1 missile, killing 38 people. The incident marked a watershed moment in Baku-Moscow relations, with President Aliyev openly threatening international legal action against Russia.

The arrest of Russian citizens, including Sputnik staff, in Azerbaijan further eroded the Kremlin’s image. These developments exposed Moscow’s declining status as an “untouchable” power in the region.

The Washington summit created a framework for Armenian-Azerbaijani understanding and effectively sidelined Russia’s role as mediator. The United States’ assertive diplomacy has accelerated the emergence of a new political order in the South Caucasus, underscoring the collapse of Moscow’s last bastions of influence.

Analysts highlight that a generation has grown up in the South Caucasus independent of Russia. The Russian language and cultural presence are steadily declining in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. Instead, ties with the West, Turkey, and regional initiatives are taking precedence.

Moscow is losing its grip on a region it long considered its unquestioned “backyard.”

— Armenia is openly resisting.

— Azerbaijan is holding the Kremlin accountable through legal and political measures.

— Georgia is pursuing its sovereign course.

— The United States and other Western actors are shaping a new geopolitical reality.

The South Caucasus is no longer Russia’s domain. A new chapter is being written — one that rises from the ashes of imperial illusions, toward independence and freedom.

Source: https://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2025/09/10/moscows-last-bastion-in-the-south-caucasus-crumbles/

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