Shall We Play A Game…

The escalation of the War in Ukraine came about in a significant manner recently when several Iranian designed attack drones entered Polish airspace from Belarus and Russia. While Ukraine has been the front lines in defending itself and access points into NATO territory, the border between NATO and the East is the Polish border. Poland has been equipping itself and readying its people to defend the nation from any possible threats to its integrity and sovereignty. Poland has been the strongest ally in NATO against threats from Russia, and has taken a generational approach to its own defense and that of NATO as a whole. Not only did Poland rapidly displace its old Warsaw Pact equipment with more modern NATO tanks and systems, but Poland has taken to establishing South Korean military equipment production in Poland, producing some of the best weapons systems in the world in local facilities. Poland is due to become one of the strongest militaries in the world, and it has now faced its first direct assault from Russia.

While the attack was significant as an act of war, it was not a serious threat to the integrity of Poland, its defenses, or its people. The reasoning behind the drone incursion into Poland is not known, but there are many suspected reasons behind it, none accepting the act as one taken in error. The debate currently going on in Poland and NATO is whether a strong response is required, and what proportional act of force is reasonable, if any at all. Suspected reasons for the incursion could be a show of force by Russia soon after China revealed its new missile force to the world. This might not be the case as Russia has its own significant missile force, and it has not been used against Poland and has been challenged in Ukraine. Drone usage often is accompanied by a swarm tactic using such systems mixed with higher end ballistic missiles, but that did not take place in the attack. Beyond a show of force against Poland, the drones could have been used to reveal the defensive capabilities of Poland against Russian weapons, as Polish defenses and NATO support all scrambled in response from the Netherlands, Italy, France, and local neighbours. What is clear however is that another possible escalation in the future is probable.

The lingering response of NATO and its allies to possible future threats has done nothing but made the conflict more robust and more likely to spiral out of control. The lack of solid coordination in displacing the purchase of Russian oil and gas until 2025, and those funds not only propping up the Rouble, but funding Russian war production does nothing more but extend the war and drain funds. The dedication to the war effort was ever diminishing when public funds in the billions from Ukraine’s allies contradict national energy policies in many of those same nations. It is suspect that since 2022, North American energy policy did not move to assist Europe in their fight, and in 2025 Canada has yet to adjust its energy policy towards assisting its allies currently in conflict in Europe. To add to these policies, the complete avoidance of targeting or eliminating the production of terror weapons, namely the drone production facilities in Iran, allowed those civilian murdering weapons to spring up in Kurdish lands, Poland and Venezuela. To end the war, it is best to start by actively preventing further conflict.

It is not known if the acts against Poland will trigger a wider conflict between NATO and Russia, but the manner the West and NATO treats its natural allies is as much of a challenge in this policy environment as Russian incursions. Rewarding Russian allies and Russian acts does more to turn the tide against NATO and its allies than to end the war with acceptable results. The narrative of a united front will never succeed as simple prose, as actions are needed in this wider war to end a Third World War. Responses in 2025 is the junction point between the end of war in Europe, or the spread of this war globally. It is that significant, and will start in the skies over Poland.