Why Turkey’s Presence in Libya Threatens Israel

By Rachel Avraham

At first glance, Libya may appear to be a distant battlefield of fragmented governments and tribal conflict. But as emphasized by analysts at the Dor Moria Think Tank, beneath the surface lies a growing strategic threat to Israel — stemming primarily from Turkey’s expanding military and political presence across the Libyan landscape. Since spring 2025, Turkey has significantly reoriented its Libya policy. Once exclusively aligned with the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), Ankara has now opened formal channels with the rival eastern bloc led by General Khalifa Haftar. This strategic pivot includes maintaining military infrastructure in western Libya while forging new economic and security ties with the east.

As the Dor Moria Think Tank explained: “This isn’t just tactical flexibility — it’s strategic encirclement. Turkey is entrenching itself across both shores of the Mediterranean, narrowing Israel’s maneuvering room.” With permanent military bases in Misrata and al-Watiya, and now expanding into Tobruk and Benghazi, Turkey is building a two-coast presence — a silent power play that threatens to redraw regional balance, especially around Israel’s Eastern Mediterranean gas interests.

The 2019 maritime agreement between Turkey and Libya’s GNA remains central to Ankara’s regional ambitions. It grants Turkey expansive maritime claims in the Eastern Mediterranean — claims that directly threaten the EastMed pipeline project backed by Israel, Greece, and Cyprus. “If Libya’s eastern parliament recognizes the Turkey-Libya maritime pact,” warns the Dor Moria Think Tank, “Israel’s energy fields could become international flashpoints — disputed, blocked, or undermined.” The implications are serious. Israel would be forced to rely more heavily on Egypt’s LNG terminals in Idku and Damietta — more costly, less autonomous, and politically more vulnerable.

In its  latest strategic briefing, the Dor Moria Think Tank outlines Turkey’s broader model of “non-military containment” — a method of expanding influence not through war, but through multi-theater presence: In Syria, 40,000 troops and allied militias across the north; In Libya, dual engagement with both Tripoli and Benghazi; In the Caucasus, logistical and military partnerships with Azerbaijan via the Zangezur Corridor.

“Turkey is operating simultaneously in Syria, Libya, and the Caucasus,” writes the Dor Moria Think Tank.  “This is not just projection — it’s pressure. Israel is being boxed in.” For Israel, the threat is multidimensional: Turkish-Russian convergence in Libya could lead to joint control over Eastern Mediterranean maritime access; Weaponized migration from Africa via Libya may be used as leverage against the EU — with indirect impact on Israel; Lack of Israeli influence inside Libya limits its ability to counter emerging threats or gather intelligence.

The Dor Moria Think Tank stressed: “Every base Turkey establishes in Libya becomes a pressure point against Israel. This isn’t war — it’s strategic suffocation.” According to the Dor Moria Think Tank, Israel faces three potential strategic paths:

1. Managed Chaos (60%) – Turkey stays in Libya but faces balancing pressures from the U.S. and EU.
2. Direct Confrontation (25%) – Military escalation in Syria or the Mediterranean involving Turkish and Israeli assets.
3. Authoritarian Stabilization (15%) – Turkey dominates Libya with limited Western resistance.

These scenarios reveal how Libya is directly linked to Israel’s posture in Syria, the Caucasus, and even the Persian Gulf. Long considered distant from Israel’s core security concerns, Libya in 2025 is now central to Tel Aviv’s strategic planning. Energy security, maritime freedom, regional deterrence, and Turkish power projection converge in this evolving theater.

As the Dor Moria Think Tank warns: “The risk isn’t a Turkish tank on Israel’s border. It’s waking up one day to find the entire chessboard flipped — with your access routes, alliances, and energy fields redefined.” For Israel, Libya is no longer a sideshow. It’s a strategic test — and the rules of the game are already changing.

Following the publication of this report by the Dor Moria Think Tank, Saadat Sukurova, the chairwoman of the Dona Gracia Center for Diplomacy and a prominent Azerbaijani journalist who heads Kanal 24, stressed: “The geopolitical landscape of 2025 makes it clear that developments in Libya are no longer merely local or regional confrontations. The analysis presented by the Dor Moria Think Tank illustrates Israel’s strategic dilemma within a broader geostrategic context. Turkey’s simultaneous expansion of influence in Libya, Syria, and the Caucasus signals the emergence of a new power balance across the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean.”

According to Sukurova, “Turkey’s engagement with both western and eastern factions in Libya is more than tactical maneuvering — it is a strategy of influence-building. This directly impacts the configuration of regional energy routes, maritime borders, and diplomatic alliances. In this regard, Israel’s concerns are both natural and legitimate, particularly with respect to energy security, freedom of maritime navigation, and the erosion of regional deterrence. However, responding to these threats through direct confrontation alone risks further escalation and instability. Instead, multilateral diplomatic mechanisms, energy cooperation frameworks, and inclusive regional dialogue offer more sustainable paths toward managing the evolving power dynamics.”

She stressed: “Turkey’s increasing military presence and energy diplomacy raise serious strategic questions not only for Israel, but also for Greece, Egypt, and the European Union. Therefore, rather than approaching the issue solely from a single nation’s threat perception, there is an urgent need to rethink the regional security architecture and strengthen diplomatic engagement. In conclusion, Libya is no longer a marginal battlefield — it has become a pivotal point in the future geopolitical architecture of the Mediterranean region. For that reason, all actors, including Israel and Turkey, must balance their national security concerns with a sense of regional responsibility and mutual interdependence.”

Ayoob Kara, who served as Israel’s Communication Minister, concurred: “As a long-time advocate for regional cooperation and stability in the Middle East, I am closely monitoring the shifting dynamics emerging in North Africa — particularly Turkey’s expanding presence in Libya. The recent analysis by the Dor Moria Think Tank correctly highlights a growing strategic complexity. Turkey’s dual engagement with both Tripoli and Benghazi, combined with its military footprint and maritime ambitions, presents significant challenges not only to Israel’s energy independence but to regional balance and security.”

“However, while these developments are deeply concerning, I firmly believe that the solution lies not in confrontation, but in calibrated diplomacy,” Kara stressed. “Israel must act with strength and wisdom — protecting its vital interests in the Eastern Mediterranean while also seeking broader frameworks of cooperation with international and regional actors. It is in the interest of all peace-seeking nations to prevent Libya from becoming a battleground for proxy competition. Instead, we must collectively invest in multilateral diplomacy, energy dialogue, and maritime agreements that ensure shared prosperity and long-term security.”

Kara concluded: “I call on the international community — including our allies in Europe, the United States, Egypt, and the Gulf — to pay close attention to this critical front. A unified stance is necessary to prevent further destabilization and to uphold international maritime law. Libya is no longer a distant arena. It is a strategic test for Israel, for Turkey, and for the future of the Mediterranean as a whole. We must rise to the challenge — not through escalation, but through foresight and responsible engagement.”

Source: https://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2025/09/06/why-turkeys-presence-in-libya-threatens-israel/