Weekly Commentary: Smotrich's Major Annexation Trumps Abraham Accords Allies

Weekly Commentary: Smotrich’s Major Annexation Trumps Abraham Accords Allies
Dr. Aaron Lerner 12 September 2025

With insider Amit Segal saying today that Dubai is more important than
annexation, it would appear that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has
decided to give a very strong kick sending the annexation “can” far down the
road (once again).

And while I also highly value and appreciate our relations with our Abraham
Accords allies, I am compelled to strongly differ with his conclusion.

I also appreciate that there is absolutely no certainty whatsoever who will
be in power in the Abraham Accord countries in a few years, let alone
decades, and their attitude towards the Jewish State.

Back in late August 1998 I spoke with Shimon Peres as he was making his way
out of the hall where he spoke:

“Mr. Peres,” I asked, “I understand your hypothesis which relates peace to
economic prosperity which, in turn, keeps the fundamentalists at bay. But
what happens if, after Israel gives up strategic positions which it would
certainly need if it faced fundamentalist neighbors, through no fault of
Israel – there is some external economic shock and there is a recession in
the region. By your theory, the recession could very well bring the
fundamentalists to power?”

Peres replied with a smile: “I don’t give answers to questions which I don’t
have answers for.”

We cannot afford to ignore this question.

We absolutely must not make policy decisions based on a perilously reckless
” ceteris paribus ” assumption.

Things can change.

And that change can be dramatic.

And we may very well be unable to prevent it.

So, while it may be argued that the Abraham Accords and future diplomatic
advances which follow from it might somehow reduce the possibility of a
terrible development, it would be profoundly foolhardy to assume that it
would take this scenario off the table.

I believe that these concerns trump the potential damage which annexation
does to the Abraham Accords relationship.

Let me put this in the simplest of terms:

As long as a piece of territory isn’t annexed, it is in the prime minister’s
power to effectively cede Israeli control to that territory.

In sharp contrast, relinquishing annexed territory requires either the
support of 80 MKs or a national referendum.

The world can pressure Prime Minister Netanyahu and those who follow in his
position, to make snap moves relating to areas that have not been annexed.

Annexation, by effectively moving the decision from the prime minster to the
People, dramatically reduces the expectations of the world.

It is, in effect, a “backbone strengthening” our prime minister may very
well need one day.
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