=?utf-8?Q?Weekly_Commentary:_Operation_Lig?=

Weekly Commentary: Operation Lightning Strike =E2=80=93 Squandered =
Opportunity To Prevent October 7th?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 14 May 2026

Let=E2=80=99s set the scene with this excerpt of an article based on =
documents seized by Israel:

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Guardian of the Walls constituted a watershed conflict, with formative =
and multi-faceted effects on Hamas=E2=80=99s calculations. It remains =
key to understanding the strategic conditions that produced the October =
7, 2023, offensive and to understanding Israel=E2=80=99s inability to =
grasp the conflict=E2=80=99s trajectory.

=E2=80=A6During the conflict, Israel came under sporadic rocket fire =
from Lebanon and Syria; Israel twice thwarted Lebanese activists from =
infiltrating its border, and an armed drone launched from Iraq was =
intercepted by Israel.

=E2=80=A6For Hamas, Guardian of the Walls was an inflection point in the =
conflict. Over the next few months, this would be represented in its =
leaders=E2=80=99 public statements. Days into the cease-fire, Al-Sinwar =
stated, =E2=80=9CThere already exists a prepared scenario, and we just =
conducted a dress rehearsal for it. Gaza will come out in all its force =
and its resistance. And the West Bank will explode in all its force. And =
our brethren in the occupied lands inside [Israel] will uprise.=E2=80=9D

Daniel Sobelman (12 Jan 2026): The Strategic Origins of Hamas=E2=80=99s =
October 7 Attack, Studies in Con=EF=AC=82ict & Terrorism
###
=20
Operation Guardian of the Walls took place 10 – 21 May 2021

Operation Lightning Strike was designed, based on intensive intelligence =
activity, to map out Hamas tunnels near the border and determine how to =
effectively destroy them in an IAF bombing attack.=20

Under Operation Lightning Strike, Hamas was expected to respond to the =
launching of an IDF ground force invasion of the Gaza Strip with a =
massive deployment of their best troops in those targeted Hamas tunnels. =
IAF attacks on the tunnels were expected to wipe out the Hamas forces =
in the tunnels. A stunning game changing loss for Hamas was anticipated.

But on 14 May 2021, when we launched Operation Lightning Strike, the =
news broadcasts said we were invading the Gaza Strip but the Hamas =
commanders saw that our forces didn=E2=80=99t actually move. =20

So Hamas didn=E2=80=99t fill the tunnels with troops.

The result was a massive IAF bombing attack on basically empty tunnels.

So we have two dramatically different outcomes of plans which had the =
potential to be game changers:

14 May 2021 Operation Lightning Strike: Stripped of its potential due to =
the failure to implement the actual plan.

17-18 September 2024 Beepers and walkie -talkies in Lebanon against =
Hezbollah: Thousands out of Hezbollah fighters out of action and the =
communication network for Hezbollah’s command structure crippled.
________________________________________
IMRA – Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus =
on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Source: https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74448