Tesla (TSLA) bull Gene Munster shares Q3 2024 delivery estimates

Longtime Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) bull Gene Munster has shared his insights on the electric vehicle maker’s third-quarter vehicle delivery results. Munster expects a slight miss from Tesla, but investors will likely be satisfied as long as the company exhibits growth once more. 

Tesla is expected to release its Q3 2024 vehicle delivery and production report around Wednesday. And as per a Benzinga report, most Wall Street analysts on the sell-side are optimistic about the electric car maker beating expectations. 

The Street is estimating that Tesla will deliver 465,000 vehicles in the third quarter, a 7% year-over-year increase. Munster noted that his personal estimate is 452,000 vehicle deliveries, which is below consensus but still represents a 4% year-over-year growth.

$TSLA September quarter deliveries should be out on Tuesday.

Big Picture: This should be a heads Tesla wins, tails they don’t lose number because deliveries should return to growth.

Expectations: The Street expects deliveries at 465k, up 7% y/y. I’m looking for a slight miss,…

— Gene Munster (@munster_gene) September 29, 2024

Munster noted that if Tesla meets the Street’s estimates, investors would likely take it as a double positive, as it would suggest that the company has turned things around from a 9% decline in Q1 and a 5% decline in Q2. It would also suggest that Tesla is growing once more regardless of how much more polarizing CEO Elon Musk has become due to his political social media posts on X. 

“This should be a ‘heads Tesla wins, tails they don’t lose number’ because deliveries should return to growth,” Munster noted. And in a post on X, he also noted that “I still believe if deliveries return to growth (anything above 436k) it will be viewed as a positive.”

Final check on $TSLA delivery estimates:

• Street’s now at 462k, up 6% y/y. This is down fractionally from last week’s 465k estimate.
• I’m at 452k, up 4% y/y.

I still believe if deliveries return to growth (anything above 436k) it will be viewed as a positive.

— Gene Munster (@munster_gene) September 30, 2024

Tesla bulls are quite optimistic about the Q3 2024 results thanks to the company’s strength in China. As per fellow TSLA bull Gary Black, through 12 weeks, Tesla China’s third-quarter deliveries were up 18.5% year-over-year and 19.9% higher than Q2 2024. Black also noted that Tesla China is on track to deliver its best quarter to date. 

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