Tesla Q3 deliveries could exceed expectations: Wolfe Research
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) could deliver a stronger-than-expected third quarter, as per Wolfe Research, which stated that the EV maker’s vehicle deliveries could reach between 465,000 and 470,000 units this Q3 2025.
Such results would represent a 22% increase from Q2, topping consensus estimates of 445,000. “Q3 is poised to be a strong quarter,” the firm noted.
U.S. and China demand
In the U.S., Wolfe attributed part of the volume lift to consumers accelerating purchases ahead of the expiration of a $7,500 federal EV tax credit. Wolfe is also optimistic about China deliveries, which the firm noted are trending above prior expectations. Wolfe estimated 165,000–170,000 deliveries in China, or about 10,000 more than its earlier forecast, as noted n a Yahoo Finance report.
The firm noted that these figures do not yet include meaningful contributions from the newly launched Model Y L. “We estimate 165-170k deliveries in Q3, or ~10k above our prior est,” Wolfe stated, though these volumes “largely do not reflect the recent launch of the Model Y L.”
Wolfe Research: Q3 is poised to be a strong quarter for Tesla
Deliveries seen at 465k–470k vs. 445k consensus, boosted by US tax credit rush + solid China demand.
“We estimate 165-170k deliveries in Q3, or ~10k above our prior est,” Wolfe said, adding that volumes “largely… pic.twitter.com/RQTV4NgD6j
— Herbert Ong (@herbertong) September 24, 2025
Earnings outlook
Wolfe noted that it expects Tesla’s Q3 earnings per share to fall between $0.55 and $0.60, which is above the current consensus of $0.49 per share. The firm forecasts automotive gross margins, excluding regulatory credits, of about 16.5% to 17%.
Looking ahead, Wolfe warned that Q4 could prove more challenging due to U.S. demand being pulled forward by tax incentives. Still, Wolfe suggested that factors like stronger seasonal demand in China and Europe could become tailwinds that could help the company’s volumes in the fourth quarter. The ramp and rollout of the Model Y L and upcoming affordable models could also help bolster the company’s Q4 volumes.
The post Tesla Q3 deliveries could exceed expectations: Wolfe Research appeared first on TESLARATI.
Source: https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-q3-deliveries-could-exceed-expectations-wolfe-research/
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