Elon Musk: Grok 5 now has a 10% chance of becoming world’s first real AGI
Elon Musk has shared his most optimistic forecast about Grok 5’s capabilities yet. In a recent post on X, Musk stated that he now believes that the upcoming update to xAI’s large language model has a 10% chance of achieving artificial general intelligence.
If his prediction comes to pass, xAI could very well become yet another world-changing company from Elon Musk.
Musk’s previous Grok 5 estimate
Just last month, Elon Musk estimated that xAI might have a chance at achieving artificial general intelligence with Grok 5. Musk’s comments at the time already made headlines, considering that no company in the world today has achieved AGI yet, though numerous AI startups today are actively pursuing artificial general intelligence.
In a recent post on X, Musk noted that his “estimate of the probability of Grok 5 achieving AGI is now at 10% and rising.” In another post, he also noted that “Grok 5 will be AGI or something indistinguishable from AGI.” Grok 5 is yet to be released, though Musk’s comments about the update are definitely setting expectations.
My estimate of the probability of Grok 5 achieving AGI is now at 10% and rising
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 18, 2025
Grok 5 will be AGI or something indistinguishable from AGI
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 18, 2025
AGI will be world changing
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to an AI system that is capable of matching or surpassing human-level intelligence across tasks such as thinking, reasoning, and other domains by a notable margin, as noted in a previous report from Benzinga. With AGI achieved, industries from robotics to manufacturing would likely see a notable boost.
As per a report from the Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD), AGI could eventually pave the way for artificial super intelligence (ASI), which would be more intelligent than AGI and likely more intelligent than all of humanity combined.
The post Elon Musk: Grok 5 now has a 10% chance of becoming world’s first real AGI appeared first on TESLARATI.
Source: https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-grok-5-now-has-a-10-chance-of-becoming-worlds-first-real-agi/
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