Yahya Sinwar’s Bloody Gambit Changed the Middle East But Not As He Planned

The Wall Street Journal is reporting on how Yahya Sinwar’s bloody gambit changed the Middle East, but not  in the ways he imagined.

“Iran is clearly on the back foot. Israel has neutralized some of the strategic threats that it faced, but in doing so may have also created new ones,” said Emile Hokayem, director of regional security and the Middle East at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. “Despite the defeat of the resistance movements, the resistance mindset has not been neutralized—also because now there is more to resist against.”

Before his death, the Hamas leader hoped that the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel would start a decisive battle ending in the Jewish state’s demise. Today, the region has indeed transformed, with Israel’s response resulting in tens of thousands of deaths in Gaza and Lebanon and the first direct conflict between Israel and Iran in history. But in the short term, Sinwar’s strike has only showcased Israel’s military strength, defanged the Iran-led “axis of resistance,” and made the aspirations of Palestinian self-determination more remote than ever, reports WSJ’s Yaroslav Trofimov.

BREAKING: Hundreds of Hamas terrorists have chosen to SURRENDER to the IDF.

We’re winning. pic.twitter.com/36bjvf4Zpm

— Vivid. (@VividProwess) October 19, 2024

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar sought to remake the Middle East with last year’s attack on Israel, dragging Iran, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and much of the region into what he foresaw as a decisive battle ending in the Jewish state’s demise.

The region, and the world’s balance of power, have indeed been decisively altered in the aftermath of that carnage, which killed some 1,200 Israelis.

The Israeli response since then has caused tens of thousands of deaths in Gaza and Lebanon, including of Sinwar and Hezbollah’s chief, Hassan Nasrallah, along with countless Palestinian and Lebanese civilians. For the first time in its history, Israel now is involved in a direct military conflict with Iran.

But, like the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks—in which Osama bin Laden aimed to destroy American power in the Middle East and spearhead an Islamist takeover of the region—Sinwar’s bloody gambit didn’t quite go according to plan. In the short term, it has showcased Israel’s military strength, defanged the Iranian-led “axis of resistance” and made the aspirations of Palestinian self-determination more remote than ever.

In part, that is because, instead of facing a concerted attack from its foes, Israel has managed to go after them sequentially.

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