For President Trump, To Fordow Or Not to Fordow, That is the Question

Just to be clear, Israel never wanted American boots on the ground. Ever.

They have always been crystal clear about that.

No American blood shed.

Militaria. Weapons. Ammo. Firepower. Yes.

Only the United States has the 30,000-pound “bunker-busting” bombs necessary to shatter Iranian nuclear ambitions.

Would Churchill or FDR balk at taking out Hitler’s nukes?

Watch What Happens at Fordow

That is Iran’s most-heavily fortified and deepest nuclear facility.

Seth Cropsey: the crown jewel in Iran’s nuclear program, the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, remains. Housing several thousand centrifuges and buried 80 to 100 yards underground, the facility would allow Iran to reconstitute a fissile material stockpile even if other elements of its nuclear infrastructure are badly damaged. Israel has two options to destroy Fordow. It can drop a large number of 1,000-pound and 5,000-pound bunker-busters, using its understanding of the facility’s design to maximize damage and dig through layers of soil, rock and concrete. This would take several strike waves, increasing the risk that Iran’s remaining air defenses might “trap” Israeli fighters. Alternatively, Israel could stage a commando raid, physically sabotaging the site, with profound risks to personnel. The most natural option is, instead, an American strike on Fordow. The U.S. developed the GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator, or MOP, a 30,000-pound bunker-buster. Depending on facility design and penetration angle, it would likely take between three and eight MOPs to cripple Fordow. Each B-2 stealth bomber can carry two MOPs. The U.S. could conceivably mix MOPs and lighter weapons to use B-52s, B-1s, or stealth fighters, in the strike package. The point, putting aside the technical specifics, is that the U.S. has a one-shot opportunity to finish Iran’s nuclear ambitions, one that would take no more than a few airstrikes. This would also trigger regime destabilization (Wall Street Journal).

Trump Faces a Churchillian Choice on Fordow

Historian Andrew Roberts makes a parallel with Churchill’s decision to destroy the French Vichy fleet as it sat at Oran in Algeria—preventing it from falling into the hands of the Germans:

Preemptive action sometimes works, but it requires remarkable leadership qualities. Does President Trump have them? Only the United States has the 30,000-pound “bunker-busting” bombs necessary to shatter Iranian nuclear ambitions. For if Iran’s centrifuges are still spinning in its nuclear facility 300 feet underground at Fordow, then Israel will have only scored a tactical win, rather than the strategic victory she needed. The successes against the upper echelons of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, military high command, and nuclear scientists are commendable, but nothing like enough. Only the United States has the 30,000-pound “bunker-busting” bombs necessary to shatter Iranian nuclear ambitions. So what does Trump do then? The point, putting aside the technical specifics, is that the U.S. has a one-shot opportunity to finish Iran’s nuclear ambitions, one that would take no more than a few airstrikes. This would also trigger regime destabilization… Counterintuitively, perhaps, President Trump would never deserve the Nobel Peace Prize more than if he destroyed Iran’s capacity for nuclear blackmail…. Donald Trump today has it in his power to act with Churchillian ruthlessness and wreck Iran’s nuclear—and thus regionally strategic—ambitions for a generation. I fear he will not do this, however, for as his constant tergiversations over tariffs have shown, his bark tends to be much worse than his bite. If he does not, he ought to remove Winston Churchill’s bust from the Oval Office….” (Free Press).