Is Israel Rolling the Dice Again?
From Vox Day:
The US government appears to be bracing for another Israeli attack on Iran:
The US has begun evacuating non-essential personnel and family members from its embassies and military bases in the Middle East in light of escalating tensions with Iran. The move follows President Donald Trump’s accusation that Tehran is “slow-walking” negotiations.
“Based on our latest analysis, we decided to reduce the footprint of our Mission in Iraq,” the State Department said in an emailed statement to the media on Wednesday. Reuters cited a US official as saying that voluntary departures had also been authorized at the embassies in Kuwait and Bahrain.
The Pentagon has likewise approved the departure of family members from military installations in the region. “CENTCOM is working in close coordination with our Department of State counterparts, as well as our allies and partners in the region, to maintain a constant state of readiness to support any number of missions around the world at any time,” a defense official told reporters.
According to the Washington Post, American intelligence officials are concerned that Israel may strike Iranian nuclear facilities without US consent.
Well, Netanyahu has gotten away with invading Gaza and committing any number of atrocities there and managed to remove the Assad regime from Syria. So, it’s probably to be expected that the more aggressive elements of the Israeli government are in the ascendance and thinking that a) it’s not going to get any easier over time, b) they’ve gotten away with everything so far, and c) it’s easier to get forgiveness than permission.
I expect they’re also counting on their Israeli-flag-waving senators and congressmen to pressure the US military to bail them out if they get in over their heads with Iran. That’s the only part of their projected analysis with which I disagree, because I’m fairly certain that both the Israelis and the US politicians are significantly overestimating the Israeli-US capabilities vis-a-vis the Iranian-Russian-Chinese capabilities. We’ve seen that with regards to Ukraine, NATO, and Russia, we’ve seen it with regards to Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and the Red Sea, and so it would be a surprise if it wasn’t happening again.
Underestimation of enemy forces and capabilities is absolutely normal in wartime. It’s observable going back to Athens and the failed Sicilian Expedition. Which is why the first question you should ask yourself whenever looking at a military conflict is this: which side appears to be overestimating its own capabilities and/or underestimating the capabilities of its enemy?
Source: https://ncrenegade.com/is-israel-rolling-the-dice-again/
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