Is Turkey a Major Threat to Middle East Stability?

By Sohrab ChamamAra and MG Paul Vallely US Army (Ret)

There was an article in the U.S.-funded Radio Farda in Persian/English, stating that Turkey is a more dangerous enemy to Israel than Iran, and it prompted to write this note: https://www.radiofarda.com/a/israel-and-turkey-long-term-turmoil/33520892.html

For years, we in Cyrus Force have been telling American policymakers that Turkey represents a more dangerous and immediate threat to Israel than the Ayatollahs’ regime in Iran. While the Islamic Republic is hostile in rhetoric and policy, its internal contradictions and the potential for peaceful change through civil society and smart sanctions make it vulnerable to non-military pressure.

By contrast, Turkey under Erdogan has combined military power, NATO cover, expansionist ideology, and open hostility toward Israel. This makes Ankara a far more unpredictable and destabilizing actor in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East. The irony is that while much of Washington’s establishment remains locked on Tehran, respected analysts in the U.S., Europe, and Israel are now recognizing the Turkish danger that we have been highlighting for years.

Our Road Map book shows clearly that the Iranian regime can be replaced without arms or military conflict. But ignoring Turkey’s aggressive trajectory would be a grave strategic error for both Israel and the West.

Contacts: Co-Directors Cyrus Force Iran: Sohrab at sohrab@chamco.net and MG Paul Vallely at suaus1961@gmail.com; www.cyrusforce.org

References:

Michael Rubin, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (Washington, D.C.), has repeatedly warned that Ankara’s ambitions pose a strategic danger, sometimes even greater than Iran’s.

Amine Ayoub, Fellow at the Middle East Forum, wrote in Ynet (Israel’s leading daily) that “Turkey is more dangerous to Israel than Iran,” pointing to Erdoğan’s growing hostility and support for Hamas.

Alper Coşkun, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Washington, D.C. and Brussels), has analyzed the escalating Turkey–Israel rivalry, stressing that Turkey’s policies destabilize the entire Eastern Mediterranean.

The Nagel Committee (Israeli government panel), as reported in Middle East Eye (UK), warned that Israel must prepare for the possibility of direct confrontation with Turkey—an unprecedented acknowledgment from within Israel’s own security establishment.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, argues for “maximum support for the Iranian people” and targeted sanctions—demonstrating that peaceful regime change in Tehran is possible without military conflict.

Suzanne Maloney, Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution, has consistently warned against military solutions with Iran and emphasized diplomacy, economic pressure, and civil society as the only sustainable path forward.

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