This is a good time to be optimistic. I certainly am.

Sovereign Man provides actionable intelligence and rational solutions for personal liberty and financial prosperity. Read more at www.sovereignman.com

It started with the Antonine Plague in the late 160s AD, most likely a really bad smallpox epidemic that killed 8 million people across the Roman Empire.

Then came the barbarian invasions… a tidal wave of migrants pouring across Rome’s northern border and plundering the countryside.

The Roman government also bizarrely spent a fortune doling out vast sums of money to adversary nations– a sort of bribe (they called it ‘tribute’) to make sure that foreigner powers wouldn’t attack Rome.

But instead, those adversary nations smelled weakness and used the money to build up their own military capabilities and menace the Empire… all courtesy of Roman taxpayers.

Crime rose and general security deteriorated; while merchants had once been able to travel across the empire quickly and safely to trade their wares, the rise in brazen crime and looting caused major disruptions to Roman trade.

Climate change and extreme weather events also became major problems, and agricultural productivity plummeted as a result. Famine was not uncommon.

Naturally the imperial government stepped in with one bonehead policy after another. They distracted the population with free bread and circuses. They vastly increased the size of the government– especially soldiers who would enforce imperil edicts and taxation at the point of a sword.

They spent way more money than they collected in tax revenue… so the jacked up taxes and confiscated people’s assets to pay for their bloated budget.

They also routinely debased the currency, sparking widespread inflation across the empire.

One of the clear lessons from history is that human beings have a breaking point. And Romans reached theirs. After decades of instability, crisis, humiliating foreign policy blunders, and economic stagnation, peasant rebellions began to tear the empire apart.

By the late 200s AD, various regions of the Roman Empire had broken away and declared independence; the northern provinces became known as the Gallic Empire, while the eastern provinces became the Palmyrene Empire. The original Roman Empire had essentially disintegrated… and the rest of the world couldn’t believe what they were seeing.

But in the year 270, a new emperor came to power– former general Lucius Domitus Aurelianus, known to history as Aurelian.

Aurelian’s success as emperor was nothing short of astonishing. In just five years, he managed to retake all the breakaway provinces and reintegrate the empire… and his swift military successes struck fear in the hearts of Rome’s foreign adversaries.

Aurelian also made much needed changes in the Roman government and economy. He prosecuted corruption, terminated incompetent officials, reformed the currency, and eliminated the outrageously expensive alimenta welfare program.

He was far from perfect and made plenty of mistakes. But given that Aurelian inherited an empire that was dying and disintegrated, it’s pretty miraculous how quickly he managed to turn things around and put Rome back on the right track.

America has a laundry list of its own challenges these days… most of which have grown worse each year.

The national debt is out of control and will most likely reach $36 trillion within the next couple of weeks. Total interest payments on that gigantic pile of debt reached $1.1 trillion in the last fiscal year and will almost certainly be even higher in this current fiscal year.

The nation’s largest entitlement programs– Social Security and Medicare– are in critical need of reform, given that the programs’ trust funds are set to run out of money in less than a decade.

Prices are still way too high, the inflation problem hasn’t gone away, and America’s standing around the world has taken a nosedive.

Like ancient Rome, the US federal government has bizarrely doled out countless billions to adversary nations. Afghanistan received tens of billions of dollars of military equipment in 2021, courtesy of the US taxpayer. Iran has received tens of billions more… which they have used to develop weapons technology to strike the US.

You can’t make up this level of incompetence.

But as I’ve argued several times before, these problems are still fixable. And there is, right now, a very limited window of opportunity to fix them.

At least 73 million people in the United States recognized this. They might not understand all the details, but they at least see that the country is headed in the wrong direction and needs to be fixed. Now.

Turning things around is not rocket science. And America already has the playbook: it’s called capitalism, i.e. the economic system that made the United States the wealthiest country in the history of the world.

It’s not hard. All the government needs to do is get the hell out of the way and let the private economy do its thing: create, innovate, and grow.

This means slashing stupid, productivity-killing regulations. And I can’t think of anyone better to head up that effort than Elon Musk… who at this very moment is already working on it.

Growth also means finally liberating America’s energy sector (and regulatory agencies allowing oil and gas companies to drill and produce again). It also means the government taking its boot off the throats of American businesses.

Combined with the coming productivity boom of AI, there’s a good chance that US GDP growth could reach a sustained 3%, then 4% very soon. This was the norm in the 1990s, and there’s no reason why the economy couldn’t achieve that again.

Higher growth means more tax revenue, lower deficits, and (eventually) a lower debt. The problem can slowly melt away.

It’s going to take serious effort. It’s going to take focus. It’s going to take a little bit of luck. But it is possible.

Personally, I’ve been writing for more than 15 years that America is in trouble; back in 2009 I described the effect of logarithmic decay, i.e., thanks to excessive government spending, the US would decline gradually, then suddenly.

This was an incredibly controversial idea back then, and a lot of people thought I was crazy.

But then it happened… and we’ve all witnessed the gradual– then sudden– decline, culminating in the breakneck pace of face-palming humiliation, chaos, and crisis over the past few years.

I’m a West Point graduate and Army veteran, so I take no joy in having been right about America’s decline. But at this point, right now, today, I hope to become wrong. I’m rooting desperately to become wrong.

And I have hope and confidence that the new administration can make me wrong.

I’m not saying that Donald Trump is Aurelian. But I am saying that America has a chance. I would even say it’s a very good chance. So, this is a great time to be optimistic. I certainly am.

But as we used to say in the military, “hope is not a course of action”. So, despite the positive things that may happen on the road ahead, it absolutely 100% still makes sense to have a Plan B.

Source

Sovereign Man provides actionable intelligence and rational solutions for personal liberty and financial prosperity. Read more at www.sovereignman.com

Source: https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/this-is-a-good-time-to-be-optimistic-i-certainly-am-151712/