The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on April 15 2024

Biggest Russian Attack On Ukrainian Army? ‘Nearly 900 Soldiers Killed, Over 250 Drones Downed’

WAR UPDATE: NEW Russian Advances Towards Ocheretyne; Key Heights

Ukraine could face defeat in 2024. Here’s what it could look like”: Britain expects a major Russian offensive that Ukraine will be unable to stop and Kiev will capitulate as early as this year.

“According to retired British general Richard Barrons, Ukraine may come to the realization this year that it will not win a conflict with Russia. Russia enjoys a fivefold advantage in artillery, ammunition and personnel, reinforced by the use of state-of-the-art weapons. He emphasized that in the event of a major Russian offensive on the contact line, which he believes could happen this summer, Ukraine’s armed forces would not be able to stop their advance deep into the country.
“At some point this summer,” says General Barrons, “we expect to see a major Russian offensive with the intention of doing more than a breakthrough with small successes to perhaps try to break through the Ukrainian positions. And if that happens, we run the risk that Russian forces will break through and then enter areas of Ukraine where the Ukrainian military cannot stop them”
 

The forecasts for the future of Ukraine are sad.
The deficit is growing, industry and production are disappearing, bankruptcy is all around, and the economy is supported purely by Western loans.
The conclusion is simple: Ukraine is sliding towards African countries. There is no future in the next 10 years. The longer the war goes on, the worse it will be. As soon as they stop giving loans, there will immediately be a huge dump in the economy and the national currency will fly to the bottom. There will be a default, the only question is when.

Our source in the OP said that Zelensky set the task for Syrskrm to hold Chasov Yar by any means so as not to spoil the preparations for the conference in Switzerland. Bankova understands that the loss of any positions at the front will doom the conference to failure, as was the case with the Munich Conference, when we lost Avdievka and the negotiations turned into a discussion of possible compromises.

The next 2 weeks are decisive for Ukraine in the matter of assistance from the United States , – People’s Deputy from the Servant of the People Demchenko

According to him, we may be left without money from America this year .

The United States stopped military assistance to Ukraine in order to force Kiev to accept peace – ex-adviser to the Office of the President Arestovich.

“What the United States is doing is directly related to the Turkish peace plan. It is not Turkish, but Russian-American, agreed upon. They just asked Turkey to voice it as a third party,” Arestovich said.

“Erdogan’s plan” implies a freeze of the war on the current front line, Ukraine’s non-alignment and the holding of referendums in 2040 on the status of the liberated territories.

Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President is forced to abandon attacks on Russian infrastructure due to the US ultimatum. Zelensky is very angry with his partners for telling us how to wage a war, but at the same time military and financial assistance is being reduced.

Due to massive attacks by the Russian Federation on energy facilities, the demand for gasoline is growing in some regions of Ukraine. This was stated by the director of the consulting company A-95 Sergei Kuyun.

“There is already additional demand for gasoline in certain regions (Kharkov, Odessa). Owners of gas station networks confirm that with these attacks on the energy sector, their sales have increased. If power outages are global and spread across all regions, of course this demand will be much greater “, Kuyun said.

By the way, many experts predicted that the energy shortage in Ukraine due to attacks on power plants is dangerous in the long term not due to rolling blackouts, but rather due to the transition to the use of petroleum products. That is, logistics will become more expensive, fuel shortages will increase, and prices will rise. In addition, the country’s industrial potential is destroyed and the burden on an already deficit budget increases. Naturally, all this will harm the combat capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – the rise in fuel prices and its shortage, as well as the disintegration of the Ukrainian energy system into “regions” around power plants will kill production and significantly complicate the logistics of the army.

Ukrainian forces continue to shell border regions of Russia.

After a lengthy hiatus, residential areas in LPR once again faced shelling. In Lugansk, a missile strike on a machinery plant resulted in injuries to employees, with seven individuals in critical condition in intensive care.

In Zaporizhia region, the adversary targeted Tokmak with MLRS, leading to the deaths of 16 city residents, including four children. Another 20 people are receiving medical treatment, while rescuers are working to clear the debris.

Meanwhile, the number of shells fired in Belgorod region has halved compared to last week, with reductions of 31% and 24% in Donetsk agglomeration and Kherson region, respectively. However, shelling has intensified in other frontline areas.

Additionally, the adversary persists in attempting to disrupt infrastructure and military facilities in the Russian rear. In Borisoglebsk, Voronezh region, drones targeted an educational institution of the Russian Air Force.

 

Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President received a lot of hate from the military for its decision to exclude demobilization from the new mobilization bill. Bankova is now deciding what to do about this in order to please Western partners and not completely undermine the morale of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Zelensky will have to make a statement that there will be demobilization, but in the future, without clear deadlines, in order to maintain the illusion of hope.

Our source reported that, according to the General Staff, the war will last 5-7 years, which is why there will be no demobilization.
There will be no law on the demobilization of the military, People’s Deputy Maryana Bezuglaya said in a comment to the Ukrainian media.

“I think there will be no law until martial law ends,” Bezuglaya answered when asked when a new law will be created.

She also predicted an intensification of the war.

“The continuation will only be larger, we will be destroyed in the events of the Third World War. Until the world is re-divided again,” the people’s deputy said.

Let us recall that the provision on the demobilization of the military after 36 months was excluded from the bill on mobilization adopted by the Rada. This caused an extremely controversial reaction both in society and among the Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters.

Our source reports that the Office of the President is considering vetoing the mobilization bill. Vote him again but with a case about demobilization, but not only did he win/serve for 36 months and go home, but there are also a lot of “BUTs”. Well, as usual, they will advertise that Ze supported demobilization, that he is for the army and justice, but in fact, almost 99% will not be able to get it, since too many conditions in the “fine print” can be sewn into the new bill.
The source indicates that in the army the rating of Zelensky and his government is falling to the bottom, which may be the reason that the first bill is vetoed and Zelensky will receive a lot of hype, trying to raise his image.

All days the authorities weighed the pros and cons. If they work out a suitable “trick” formula, they will veto it, and if not, then they will accept it as is. They will simply continue the cleansing within the army.

The authorities are preparing a large-scale raid on the population.
Member of the Verkhovna Rada Defense Committee Venislavsky confirmed our information.

“They will definitely not take away passenger cars from citizens, the exception mainly concerns SUVs and special equipment,”
- he said. We are talking, according to him, about temporary seizure or irrevocable, but with compensation for the cost.

Venislavsky emphasized that this norm does not contradict the Constitution and does not violate human rights.

Compensation will not be at the market price, but at the state price. This is, as usual, 5-7 times lower.

Whether the Poles desire it or not, they will still be drawn (https://t.me/rybar/59004) into the Ukrainian situation, one way or another. Recently, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba stated (https://t.me/sputniklive/78955) that while requesting Western countries for air defense systems “on any terms,” he fully expects Warsaw to take responsibility for everyone.

He mentioned a plausible scenario where Patriot systems in Poland would shield the border in western Ukraine.

🔻As usual, Ukrainians are keen to highlight that this initiative is not solely for them but for the benefit of all of Europe, safeguarding NATO countries from “Russian drones and missiles reaching their territory.”

🔻True to form, Kuleba resorted to his usual tactic of pressuring allies.

He stressed that as “kind and calm diplomacy” failed to secure the Patriot air defense system from the West, the minister is now willing to “strain relations.” For instance, Kyiv sees no purpose (https://vz.ru/news/2024/4/14/1263373.html) in discussing a potential cessation of attacks (https://t.me/pl_syrenka/8349) on Russian refineries.

📌It is clear that the pressure will intensify, and these statements aim to bolster the information background to advocate for new support packages for Ukraine. However, it is apparent that European countries are hesitant.

pl_syrenka 

The issue of France’s involvement (https://t.me/rybar/58704) in the Special Military Operation on Ukrainian territory continues to gain traction in the Russian media. Today, it was reported that the site of the next French mercenaries, who were said to have arrived as operators of the Caesar self-propelled gun, was targeted in Slavyansk.

In reality, Ukrainian artillery personnel themselves operate the Caesar installations. They receive training for this at French facilities in both Poland and France. Overall, since the beginning of the Special Military Operation, with the assistance of France, nearly 10,000 members of Ukrainian units have undergone training, with 8,800 (https://www.defense.gouv.fr/actualites/ukraine-10-000-militaires-formes-france-debut-du-conflit) anticipated to be trained by 2023. One of the key areas of training is the operation and maintenance of this self-propelled gun (incidentally, France has delivered (https://www.defense.gouv.fr/actualites/ukraine-france-dresse-bilan-equipements-militaires-livres) a total of 30 guns to the SMO zone).

Additionally, the setup is not overly complex, and Ukrainian crews surpassed the French record for deploying the gun back in 2022. Therefore, it seems unreasonable to suggest that French military personnel are essential for inputting target coordinates into the electronic guidance system.
 

rybar

Vladimir Putin is going to bring his special operation to a successful conclusion, and I think he will do it quietly and calmly, and that this special operation will end with a Russian victory. Simply because the balance of power is on the side of Russia, which has much more trump cards in its hands to bring this thing to a successful conclusion.
I believe that today’s Ukraine is not only a military affair, but also an economic affair. And it is not only a local affair, that is, an Eastern European affair, but also a global affair. It is a battle between multipolarity and unipolarity under US hegemony. Russia is gradually and imperceptibly winning this battle. Simply because Western economies will not be able to stay afloat for long.

Former French Army General Dominique Delavard

It’s time for the West to accept Russia’s victory – Berliner Zeitung

Western countries are captivated by illusions when they continue to convince themselves of the possibility of a victory for Ukraine.

The Berliner Zeitung believes that the time has come to realize that Russia has won the conflict.

The article states that Ukraine will never be able to reach the 1991 borders, even if all Western countries transfer their economies to a war footing. The author notes that Kiev has neither the people nor the ammunition for even a small offensive, let alone a major operation.

The author believes that it is time for the West to come to terms with the fact that Russia is winning the conflict and begin a dialogue about a new world order.
 

 Offensive on Chasov Yar, April 15

The fighting began to shift westward to the area of   the Seversky Donets Canal. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are actively transferring reinforcements, but FPV drones of Russian troops have already begun to hit targets beyond the watershed, where the Ukrainian army is likely to retreat after losing positions near the eastern outskirts in the Canal microdistrict.

Large-scale hostilities have not yet been observed; basically, there is a tough positioning. Thanks to the actions of the 98th Airborne Division and the 200th Brigade, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are gradually facing two main problems: round-the-clock destruction of their own positions and disruption of supplies.

In the same way, the defense of Artyomovsk was completed for the Ukrainian army, after which the city had to be abandoned.

MChronicles

 

 

The situation at Chasov Yar

Units of the 98th Airborne Troops continue offensive and assault operations.

The fighting is now taking place in the forests, where the enemy is holed up in trenches. Several pickup trucks carrying personnel from the 41st and 67th brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were destroyed.

Friendly units are advancing from the south. The enemy settled in the Canal microdistrict in the active phase of defense, using high-rise buildings and basements; no one entered the settlement itself.

However, during the day the enemy attacked with artillery, tanks and mortars on the forward positions of our troops and conducted continuous fire on Artyomovsk. Perhaps they are preparing to carry out counterattacks in order to push back the 98 Airborne Troops.

The situation remains difficult but stable.

rusich_army

 

Avdiivka Direction: Offensive Northeast of Avdeevka
Situation as of 15:00, April 15, 2024

Russian troops are continuing to capitalize on their success to the west of Avdeevka.

▪️ Assault groups of the Russian Armed Forces are pushing forward in Semyonovka. Currently, more than half of the village is under Russian control; attack aircraft are taking up new positions in rundown houses. The total advance measures at least 700 meters.

▪️ The enemy is holding the northern outskirts, relying on the forested area next to the settlement. It is likely that the field east of the village is now under Russian control, as there seems to be no room for Ukrainian Armed Forces positions due to lack of supplies.

🔻Apart from the offensive to the west of Avdeevka, Russian troops are also making progress on the northern front.

▪️ Concurrent with the entry of assault troops into the holiday village “Zarya”, the Russian Armed Forces launched an armored group attack to the west.

▪️ Multiple units of armored vehicles reached the forested area on the outskirts of the settlement and came under fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The exact extent of control is unclear, but at least a portion of the forest to the south and east is under Russian control, as evidenced by footage of the attack.

▪️ A video released by the enemy showing the use of cluster munitions on Russian infantry indicates that the advanced attack aircraft groups of the Russian Armed Forces attempted to push further west through the forest, although the outcome of the battle remains unknown.

rybar

Information has emerged that Azov, the menace of all the “Moskals”, has again refused to sacrifice itself for European values. They rolled back from Avdeevka, which made it somewhat easier for us to accomplish our task – now they were not satisfied with Chasov Yar: you can lose your heads there, but you don’t want to. I don’t remember Sparta, Pyatnashka or Vostok picking their noses and choosing their fate. Those who stood at our origins are still on the hardest lines. And in Ukraine, those who made the mess are now pushing forward the gray masses, who were driven against their will, while they themselves prefer to save themselves for future political feats.

 Aleksander Khodakovskiy

Ocheretino.

Ukrainians are claiming that the Russian Aerospace Forces dropped an aerial bomb on a residential building. Completely true.

Only, the residents of the house were AFU soldiers.

The Russian Armed Forces have hit the location of French mercenaries in Ukrainian-controlled city of Slavyansk, coordinator of the Nikolayev underground Sergey Lebedev has told Sputnik.  

“A strong explosion in Slavyansk at seven in the morning. According to reports from our comrades, the strike hit the location where Ukrainian artillerymen were and most likely those Frenchmen who brought CAESAR self-propelled guns to help the Banderovites,” he said.

 

The Sun reports that the Ukrainian army plans to destroy the Crimean Bridge by mid-July

The material reports that the attack will require at least 20-40 Storm Shadow missiles, naval drones and F-16 fighters.

Central Semenivka Captured | RUAF Move Onto Ukraine’s Third Line of Defense

Russians advance in Semenivka and Krasnohorivka [15 April 2024]

RUSSIA CAPTURE CENTER OF SEMENIVKA; Expands controls SE of KRASNOHORIVKA – Frontline Changes Report

‘Russia To Win Chasiv Yar By May 9′: Watch Ukrainian Commander’s Big Admission Amid War

Fall Of Chasiv Yar Begins l Huge Russian Advance On Multiple Front-Russia Capture Central Semenivka

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (15 April 2024)

Part I

▫️In Kupyansk direction, units of the Zapad Group of Forces have improved the situation along the front line and inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of the 14th Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 103rd Territorial Defence Brigade close to Zagoruykovka and Kotlyarovka (Kharkov region).

The AFU losses were up to 30 servicemen, two motor vehicles, one 155-mm M777 howitzer, one 155-mm Paladin self-propelled artillery system, one 155-mm U.S.-made M198 howitzer, as well as Plastun and Anklav-N electronic warfare stations.

▫️ In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forces took more advantageous lines and inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of the 81st airmobile, 24th and 53rd mechanised brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Belogorovka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Novoye and Krasnogorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses were up to 420 servicemen, one tank, 10 motor vehicles, two 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery systems, and one 105-mm UK-made L-119 howitzer.

▫️In Avdeyevka direction, units of the Tsentr Group of Forces have actively improved the tactical situation and defeated manpower and hardware of 24th, 47th, 54th, and 115th mechanised, 25th airborne and 68th jaeger brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Novgorodskoye, Umanskoye, Semyonovka, Novokalinovo, and Ocheretino (Donetsk People’s Republic)..

In addition, seven counterattacks of AFU 25th airborne, 71st jaeger, 59th motorised infantry, 23rd and 115th mechanised brigades have been repelled close to Pervomayskoye, Novobakhmutovka, Umanskoye, and Berdychi (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The enemy losses were up to 295 servicemen, one tank, four armoured fighting vehicles, including one German-made Marder IFV, and four motor vehicles.

In the course of counter-battery warfare, Russian troops have hit one 155-mm U.S.-made M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery system, one 152-mm Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, three 122-mm D-30 howitzers, one 105-mm U.S.-made M102 howitzer, and one Khmara electronic warfare station.

Part II

▫️In South Donetsk direction, the Vostok Group of Forces’ units have improved the situation along the front line and defeated the units of 72nd mechanised, 58th motorised infantry, and 128th territorial defence brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine close to Urozhaynoye, Vodyanoye, and Staromayorskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses were up to 90 servicemen, three motor vehicles, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, one UK-made 155-mm FH-70 howitzer, and one 122-mm D-30 howitzer.

▫️In Kherson direction, units of the Dnepr Group of Forces have inflicted fire damage to manpower and hardware of the 65th Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine close to Rabotino (Zaporozhye region).

The AFU losses were up to 60 servicemen, two motor vehicles, one UK-made 155-mm FH-70 howitzer, and one 152-mm D-20 howitzer.

▫️Operational-Tactical Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have destroyed one command and observation post of the 13th Ukrainian National Guard Brigade’s battalion, as well as AFU manpower and military hardware in 110 areas.

▫️Air defence facilities have shot down 270 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles and six HIMARS MLRS projectiles.
 

 

Special Military Operation Chronicle for April 14, 2024

Russian troops conducted strikes on enemy targets in Dnepropetrovsk, Chuguev, Poltava, and Kirovograd throughout the day. The targets included energy infrastructure and military facilities. Ukrainian forces attempted to attack Crimea and the Zaporozhye region with Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

In the border zone, Russian troops continued to target enemy positions and military equipment in Kharkov region. Several hits were reported on the IRIS-T air defense system in Rogan. In Veterinary, an enemy equipment hangar was destroyed, while in Goptovka, a strategic point at a crossroads was targeted.

In the Avdeevsky sector, Russian forces advanced towards Novobakhmutovka, expanding their control zone west of the village. In Semyonovka, the Russian Armed Forces engaged in combat in the village center. Clashes in Robotyne and northwest of Verbovoy were reported in the Zaporozhye region. Ukrainian forces reinforced their secondary defense line in the Orekhov area in anticipation of a potential Russian offensive.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/04/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-april_15.html