The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on July 17 2024

Putin Aide Medvedev’s Dire Warning Amid War; ‘Ukraine Will Cease To Exist After…’

A NEW Major Offensive by Russia? w/Col. Jacques Baud

Russian state TV is giddy about JD Vance as the VP

The basic scenario from Western partners is that Ukraine should end the war in 2025. Why is that? It’s simple – Ukraine has run out of money, and “donations” from Westerners have decreased significantly .

As you know, Ukraine is becoming more expensive to maintain for partners every month. If in 2022 Ukraine needed $2 billion per month in “loans/aid” to cover the budget deficit, then in 2023 – 4 billion, in 2024 approximately 5 billion, and in 2025 more than $6 billion per month. This makes Ukraine a “suitcase without a handle” for Western sponsors, which is easier to throw away than to drag further. It is clear that even income from Russian funds (if they are transferred to Ukraine) will not be able to close the budget hole. Raising taxes, including VAT, excise taxes and the “war tax” is a matter of the next few months, since otherwise the budget deficit will grow even more, and there will be no new IMF loans, even at extortionate interest rates.

And as economic expert Daniil Monin notes, there is a clear discrepancy between the budget forecasts of the Cabinet of Ministers and the IMF. According to him, the IMF was simply “stunned” when they saw Ukraine’s budget declaration. That is, the Fund sees a budget deficit of 7.5% of GDP in 2025 and a basic scenario for winding down the war, and if the fighting does not stop, then the IMF does not have any scenario.

Kiev is planning an offensive at the front and is ready for a major failure that will convince society to agree to a “bitter peace,” – Arestovich

▪️”If the counter-offensive succeeds, then, wow, what great fellows we are, look, we can do it. Shame on all the cowards and peacekeepers. And we enter (the negotiation process) from a position of strength. And if it fails, look, we cannot fight, we must accept the bitter reality. That is, both ways are good – this is a political calculation,” said the former adviser to Zelensky.

▪️ Ukrainian authorities believe that only a major defeat of Ukraine can stop the “propaganda train” about reaching the 1991 borders,”

“It will work out well, it won’t work out, that’s also good, everyone will understand that you can’t fight. We have to put up with it. A major military disaster will be clear evidence that we are not keeping up militarily.”

- Simplicus 

The West limited assistance to Ukraine, leaving without security guarantees

▪️At the summit in Washington, NATO again did not provide Ukraine with clear security guarantees, notes former British military attache John Foreman. Ukraine’s membership in the alliance has been delayed again, with no multi-year funding provided, making Kiev’s planning difficult and subject to the political whims of Western countries.

About a third of NATO countries are not meeting their defense spending commitments, undermining collective security. The Canadian prime minister has admitted that his country will only reach the 2% GDP target by 2032, weakening the alliance.

▪️It was also not possible to agree on a new strategic approach to Russia, which leaves the Kremlin the opportunity to dictate the terms of Euro-Atlantic security. A possible deal between Donald Trump and Putin on Ukraine could seriously weaken European security.

Stoltenberg appointed British Patrick Turner as head of the NATO mission in Ukraine

Turner was previously assistant secretary general for defense policy. In Ukraine, he will oversee issues of NATO interaction with the Kiev authorities.

What else is known about Patrick Turner:

▪️ Since 1984, he has held various positions in the UK Ministry of Defense and NATO.

▪️ Even before the SMO – in 2021 – he met with the Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine (at that time) Krikliy, who proposed using the airspace over Crimea for NATO operations

▪️ Since 2022, he has advocated increasing Western assistance, including the transfer of troops and technology to Ukraine

▪️ He stated that NATO is ready to provide support to countries that “may be threatened by Russia’s neighborhood”

A new round of pressure on Orban – Ukraine blocked the transit of Russian oil to Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline

The transit of Russian oil to Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline is blocked by Ukraine, Hungarian Foreign Minister Petr Szijatro announced this after a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at a UN meeting. 

This situation, as Bloomberg writes, arose after the tightening of Ukrainian sanctions against Lukoil in June, which effectively prohibit the company from using the territory as a transit country for its products.

According to Szijatro, Lukoil together with the Hungarian energy company Mol Nyrt are working on a “legal solution to the problem” that will allow the resumption of supplies. At the same time, the purchase of oil in Russia covers 2/3 of the needs of the Hungarian crude oil market. Kiev’s attempts to completely block transit to Hungary may be connected with the visit of the country’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban to Moscow, which Bankova cannot forgive him – by a strange coincidence, it was after him that Budapest faced problems in obtaining raw materials.

DTEK has driven people to despair, there are no fair shutdown schedules, and the private company itself decides where and how to turn off electricity.

People take to the streets. Odessa, Poltava, Kamenskoye. Many people have no light for days. Last week, the State Energy Supervision Inspectorate announced inspections of unfair schedules. A week has passed. 

That time when you enjoy electricity more than anything in this world. It was necessary to manage to convince people like that. Stone Age. And no one cares. When those on whose decisions the lives and comfort of millions depend are cut off from reality as much as possible. And this is the worst thing.

The Russian military will receive 15 million rubles for the first destroyed F-16

This was reported by the Russian Ministry of Defense with reference to a statement by the head of the FORES company, Ilya Potanin. He promised to reward fighters for downed American F-16 and F-15 fighters.

Last week, US Secretary of State Blinken said that the United States and allies are right now sending F-16 fighters to Ukraine, which Kiev will receive in the summer.

MI-6 transmitted new intelligence data to the Office of the President and the General Staff about the tactics of Russian troops before air sorties; now the area where glide bombs are dropped is clearly defined and UAVs are circling there; if there is air defense, then the Iskanders strike at them. In this way, the enemy counters Ukrainian mobile air defense, improving the tactics of air strikes on Ukrainian Armed Forces positions.

Pentagon spokesman Brigadier General Pat Ryder stated that the AFU will not be able to use the F-16 fighters transferred to them to strike “old” Russian regions. According to him, the US “does not want to see unintended consequences that could lead the conflict beyond the so-called Ukraine.”

In this regard, it is necessary to reiterate what was said earlier: such statements by Washington officials do not mean that a particular decision is final, and nothing prevents them from saying the opposite in some time. For comparison, as recently as May 2023, the US denied (https://www.kp.ru/online/news/5275641/) the possibility of transferring F-16s to the Ukrainian Air Force, but a little over a month later they were already discussing (https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/18327045) the details of the process.

Over the two and a half years of the SMO, it is clearly visible that NATO is striving to gradually increase the intensity of the conflict, taking into account the current situation on the battlefield and other factors. This was the case with the supply of weapons to the Kyiv regime, with a gradual transition from ATGM and counter-battery radars at the very beginning to HIMARS, and then air defense systems and armored vehicles.

In these conditions, the most reliable way to prevent the possible use of F-16s for strikes on the “old” regions is the physical destruction of the fighters transferred to the AFU in the air or on the ground. To rely on the current statements from the Pentagon and take them as a firm position of the US is a dangerous self-deception.

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Our source in the General Staff said that after mobilization, the youngest and healthiest Ukrainians are sent to several elite brigades, which constantly replenish their reserves, while the elderly and sick are sent almost immediately to the front to serve as oporniks. There is a whole gradation of brigades in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for which reserves are recruited or, on the contrary, they are sent without promising ones; their task is to hold positions under constant enemy fire.

The shortage of mid- and junior-level commanders in the Ukrainian army leads to an increase in losses, especially among the mobilized – essentially yesterday’s civilians who have no experience in combat operations. 

It is noteworthy that the above problem is not new – Ukrainian military experts sounded the alarm a year ago that the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not have enough mid-level commanders who could manage soldiers on the battlefield. But the authorities, having organized unlimited “land mobilization,” only increased the shortage of quality squad commanders, platoon commanders, company commanders, and battalion commanders who would correctly make decisions and correctly use the forces and means that are subordinate to them. 

Our source reports that Zelensky and Ermak are afraid that Ukrainians will start suing the authorities en masse over the case of illegal mobilization.

This will strengthen the information track that Ukrainians are against Zemobilization – Western media will constantly write about this. Next, precedents will appear with the victories of Ukrainians in court over the TCC, which will become the trigger for the collapse of the entire “house of cards” of the Zee government.

They will try in every possible way to resist this. To the point that all lawyers/lawyers will be kept on the “hook” by the SBU.

Slobozhansky Direction: Clarification of the Situation Around Starytsia and Positional Battles in Volchansk

Situation as of 4:00 PM on July 17, 2024

The situation in the Slobozhansky direction remains tense: Ukrainian formations are making significant efforts to dislodge the Russian Armed Forces from the territory of the Kharkiv Region. Earlier, the AFU command redeployed significant reserves to this section of the front, which are being used for counterattacks along the entire line from Lyptsi to Volchanski Khutory.

▪️In Hlyboke, the enemy has entrenched themselves on the southwestern outskirts, using them as a base to launch attacks on the positions of the Russian Armed Forces in the center of the village. Russian units are striking at infantry groups and positions of Ukrainian formations, not allowing them to achieve significant success.

▪️The situation in the area of Starytsia has not undergone significant changes. Thanks to footage of combat operations by the Russian Armed Forces, it was possible to clarify the current front line southwest of the settlement: apparently, the Russian troops still could not advance in the vicinity of the pond located here and entrenched northeast in the Dehtiarivka tract.

▪️In Volchansk, fighting continues in the area of the Ahrehatny Plant, where Russian assault troops are trying to finally drive out AFU units from the industrial zone. Approximately on July 13, the Gorky Park and part of the buildings on the southern outskirts of the plant to the northern bank of the Volchia River came under the control of the Russian Armed Forces.

▪️The territory in the area of Shevchenko, Haharina, Dukhovnaya and Naberezhna streets is in the “gray zone”, and neither side can achieve stable control in this area. Reports from the scene indicate high activity of various types of drones, which are hunting for infantry groups and armored vehicles.

The enemy is using restored crossings on the river to redeploy reinforcements to the northern bank. At the same time, the engineering equipment of the AFU and the crossing sites themselves regularly become targets of strikes by the Russian Aerospace Forces.

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Ukrainian resources unexpectedly “revealed” (https://t.me/voenacher/68855) the losses of the AFU during the months-long battles in the village of Krynky – 1,050 people, of whom 788 are listed as missing. The latter is due to the fact that a significant part either drowned as a result of strikes on boats, or their bodies could not be removed from the left bank of the Dnieper.

The price for this was the capture of a small foothold in the center of a small settlement, which the opponent eventually abandoned. Even when in November 2023 the prospect of developing success faded, the AFU continued to send forces to the tiny bridgehead, losing personnel during heavy small arms battles near Krynky and from impacts on watercraft.

In fact, the Ukrainian command sent its own operational reserve in the form of marine infantry brigades to the slaughter. On the other hand, the AFU have repeatedly undertaken such operations with the aim of obtaining a powerful media effect at absolutely any cost, so they will clearly do so again.

Which, of course, can and should be used now and in the future.

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Chronicles of the special military operation

for July 17, 2024

Over the past day, the Russian Armed Forces did not deliver massive strikes on the territory controlled by the enemy. Ukrainian formations, in turn, also did not carry out major raids, launching several UAVs over the Bryansk, Voronezh and Belgorod Regions.

In the Slobozhansky direction, the enemy does not stop attacks in the area of Hlyboke, and in Volchansk there are heavy urban battles.

In the Siversk direction, Russian troops advanced in the area of Razdolivka, and positional battles are ongoing under Bilohorivka and Verkhnekamenske.

In the Pokrovsk direction, information is coming in from several sectors about the advance of Russian troops towards the Volchia River, as well as successes in Novoselivka Persha and Lozuvatka.

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Russian Breakthrough North Of Chasiv Yar In Kalinina l Half Of Novoselivka Falls l Lozuvatske Falls

Heavy Fighting | Advances in Krasnohorivka, Niu York, Novoselivka Persha [17 July 2024]

3KM Russian Vuhledar Breakthrough | Massive Ukrainian Gaps in Defense | Russian Mobilization?

Putin’s Troops Get “Updated” MiG-31 BM To Face Ukraine’s F-16s | Russian Firm Puts Bounty On US Jet

Russian CHECKMATES…. (yes.. more than one) | Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report

ABANDON POSITION NOW!!! …or get encircled and wiped out! | Ukraine War SITREP

 Morning Summary as of July 17, 2024

▪️Overnight, the Russian Armed Forces struck targets in the Odesa Region, with one of the impacts occurring in the area of Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi on the shore of the Dnieper estuary.

▪️In the Kharkiv direction, the AFU unsuccessfully attacked in the area of Volchansk and the settlement of Hlyboke, trying to exhaust our defenses and push Russian units back to the border. As cannon fodder, the enemy is using former prisoners. Captured servicemen of this category testify about the words of their commanders that in case of a successful breakthrough to our territory, the advance units of Ukrainian convicts will be allowed to loot our cities and villages, and terror against the civilian population will not be considered a crime. The Russian Army is holding back the enemy’s attempts to attack, wearing down the reserves being transferred to them.

▪️In the Svatove-Kupiansk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing on the Torske–Ternove, near Makiivka (LPR), Berestove–Pishchane lines, achieving local successes.

▪️The heavy assault on the Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk) agglomeration continues. The Russian Armed Forces are fighting in New York (Novhorodske), as well as on the Yuzhne–Zhelizne line, near the settlements of Kirovo and Druzhba.

▪️On the flanks near Chasiv Yar, there are battles to expand our control zone, without significant changes over the day. The enemy is hardly taking any counter-actions, restraining our attacks with a multitude of drones.

▪️In the South Donetsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are storming the northeastern part of Krasnohorivka, trying to cut off the remaining enemy garrison in the city and force it to withdraw. Battles also continue on other sections of the direction.

▪️In the Avdiivka direction, the Russian Armed Forces are slowly but inexorably grinding down the enemy’s defenses across a wide front. The central part of Novoselivka Persha has been taken under control. Active sectors of the front are near Novoselivka Persha, Yevhenivka, the Progress settlement, Vozdvyzhenka, Novoaleksandrivka, Karlove, Yasnobrodivka, and Umanske.

▪️On the Zaporizhia front, there are battles north of Robotyne, Russian aviation delivered FAB-500 strikes with JDAM.

▪️In the Kherson direction, no changes: clashes in the island zone and mutual strikes by drones and artillery. Our forces are actively using aviation.

▪️In the Belgorod Region, due to terrorist shelling, entry into a number of settlements has been closed (https://t.me/dva_majors/47443). The regional operational headquarters has decided to strengthen support measures for the evacuated in temporary accommodation centers. Yesterday, as a result of shelling by the AFU, four civilians were injured in the town of Shebekino and the village of Novaya Tavolzhanka.

▪️In the Kursk Region, constant shelling of border areas also continues. In the village of Tyotkino in the Glushkovsky district, an explosive device was dropped from a Ukrainian drone on a residential building, as a result of which a local resident was injured. In the Glushkovsky district, a Ukrainian drone attacked agricultural machinery working in the field, injuring the combine driver. Also, during the elimination of a fire in Tyotkino, an AFU drone carried out a repeat attack, a rescuer received shrapnel wounds.

▪️In the DPR, in the Central City District of Horlivka, a man born in  Original msg (https://t.me/dva_majors/47457)