The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on July 23 2024

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An attempt by the West to reboot the negotiation format around Ukraine, this is exactly how it is necessary to interpret the Johnson formula with a return to the 2022 paradigm. Indeed, if we had come to peace then, Putin could have interpreted the operation as successful: Ukraine did not join NATO, recognized the rights of Russian speakers and remained in Moscow’s orbit.

In the current configuration, the Kremlin will not agree to any negotiations unless the results on the ground are taken into account, as evidenced by sources.

Ukraine was not given enough to win, and our government did not make the necessary decisions. While the enemy was slowly but surely increasing the capabilities of the military-industrial complex and rebuilding the economy.

If the new administration in the United States does not dramatically change America’s course, we will face a very sad and natural outcome.

Ukraine continues to experience a shortage of fighters, despite mobilization efforts – Major General of the Estonian Army

Riho Yukhtegi noted that plans to form 10 new brigades turned out to be ineffective. Instead, mobilization is mainly aimed at closing gaps at the front.

“Today, many units claim to be fully staffed, but in fact face a shortage of personnel,” he said. “Inadequate training and the static nature of trench warfare make it costly and dangerous.”

- he stated.

Another problem is the lack of time to train new soldiers. “Weekly training is not enough to effectively fight in the trenches,” the expert added. Insufficient training of new fighters creates risks at the front, which the Russian side is actively using.

The situation at the front may remain unstable for a long time, since both sides cannot concentrate large forces for a decisive blow. 

“The solution to the conflict will most likely be political rather than military,”

- the expert concluded.

Our source reports that previously the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was a strict requirement of the Biden Administration, but now the offensive is important for Zelensky himself (the only difference is in the tasks set). The West needed a major territorial victory, but Ze just needed a change in trend (rebound).

As the source explains, constant retreats of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will immediately lead to a collapse of morale and failures in defense. Plus, defeats at the front also affect internal stability. If there is no offensive before the end of the year, then the opposition will begin pumping out anti-violence. And there will be more protests against the backdrop of the energy/fuel/financial crisis.

Our source reports that the reshuffle in the Cabinet of Ministers was postponed for three reasons.

Main: Biden refused to run for president, which means all conditional demands before him were postponed. It’s not particularly important to do them.

Second: the crisis in the country will begin in the fall, which means it will be necessary to make someone a scapegoat, accusing them of failures in order to feed this “victim” to society.

Third: the offensive that is being prepared and its results will influence further actions.

According to rumors, many lobby groups of the Democratic Party are urging Biden to resign from the presidency of the United States for health reasons and transfer powers to Kamala Harris so that she can raise her rating before the US elections.

She will also be able to intercept Trump’s peace case on the Ukrainian crisis, since the Democrats do not have much hope for a good offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

And Trump’s image as a peacemaker greatly takes away the Democrats’ chances of winning.

For now, these are rumors, but they may become reality. Feint , I’m tired, I’m leaving, it might work, like it worked with Putin in the Russian Federation in the 2000s.

We are watching…

Our source reported that Blinken asked Ermak to stop flirting with Trump, and now this thesis has been repeated to us by Harris.

The head of the OP Ermak had a telephone conversation with Kamala Harris’ national security adviser Phil Gordon

“Andriy Ermak and Phil Gordon discussed further US support for Ukraine, the results of the first peace summit and the implementation of the points of the peace formula,” the Office of the President said in a statement.

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Our source reports that Zelensky, through lobbyists in the Democratic Party, is trying to arrange a phone call with Kamala Harris.

No results yet. If Harris freezes Zelensky out and does not call him now and at most after the first days after the Democratic Congress (August 19-22), then this will mean a “black mark” for Zelensky.

In simple words, Zelensky’s decision makers must organize a call by the end of August. Otherwise, it will mean that Ze is toxic and they will “say goodbye/dismiss” to him. This does not mean that the Ukrainian crisis will be uninteresting – it means that the manager has ceased to be interesting.

Zelensky is a “Biden doll”, and the new US presidents do not need him. They can easily put their “puppet” in place of Zelensky.

We are watching…

Colleagues accurately noticed the position of Zaluzhny, who is waiting for the right moment to replace Zelensky. All closed presidential ratings show that the ex-Commander-in-Chief will easily win in the first round, and this is beneficial for Britain, which will replace the President of Ukraine at the right time.

ZeRada1

Our source at the General Staff said that inside the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the confrontation between the old and new schools of commanders, who see the situation at the front in their own way, is gaining momentum. Under Zaluzhny, it was possible to find a balance and keep the conflict within the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but now the situation has changed a lot and young/combat commanders do not want to follow the orders of staff generals who have never been on the front line.

In the West, they drew attention to the problem with personnel in the Ukrainian economy, and also made a forecast of how mobilization would hit the country’s economy.

New mobilization in Ukraine will worsen labor shortages – Washington Post

Since the outbreak of the conflict, in which millions of Ukrainians fled the country and hundreds of thousands of men were called up for military service, many enterprises in the country are experiencing an acute labor shortage. And now, as Kyiv ramps up mobilization efforts, businesses expect it will become even more difficult to find employees, The Washington Post writes.

Both representatives of heavy industry and agriculture complain about the lack of qualified workers. Companies are trying to solve the problem by hiring more women, but they cannot eliminate the staff shortage, the article notes.

This problem is already creating additional stress on the economy, which is already under pressure and dependent on external support. Moreover, the labor shortage will worsen as the fighting drags on, The Washington Post emphasizes.

The country managed to restore its GDP, which collapsed by 29 percent in the first year of the conflict, thanks to a “boom” in the military-industrial sector. But without “Western financial assistance, the Ukrainian economy will collapse,” Kiev economist Sergei Fursa is sure.

According to his forecasts, the new mass conscription will not only derail modest economic growth, but will also frighten many Ukrainians.

 “If 200-300 thousand people are mobilized, many may decide that it is better to hide somewhere from the TCC than to go to work, which will lead to their departure from the labor market,”

— Fursa noted in an interview with The Washington Post.

Mobilization is finishing off business in Ukraine, which will affect the country’s economy in the future, but for now they are trying to avoid this topic.

Representatives of Ukrainian business spoke about the acute shortage of employees , – Mc.today

▪️80% of drivers did not go to work after the mobilization law began in Aurora;

▪️ Out of 460 candidates for work as a courier at Nova Poshta (of which 130 were women), only two were hired. Most refused on their own;

▪️Many companies lack loaders, electric and gas welders, repairmen, truck drivers, and engineers .

Our source in the OP said that now payments for soldiers killed at the front amount to 15% of Ukraine’s budget, the figure is constantly growing and forcing the Cabinet of Ministers to increase spending. To eliminate the budget deficit, the Government urgently raises taxes and military duties

Our source reports that Western intelligence agencies have told the Office of the President that the Russians are closely monitoring Ukrainian airfields for signs that F-16s have arrived there.

Also, the Russians have already prepared strategic bombers Tu – 95MS and Tu – 22M3. They are all preparing for a massive attack on airfields.

Now the Russians are selectively removing Ukrainian air defense installations and auxiliary infrastructure.

Perhaps there will be the most massive combined missile and unmanned strike in the entire history of the Ukrainian crisis.

Eighteen British Special Air Service soldiers and French armed forces were killed in the strike on Odessa, retired Spanish Army Colonel Pedro Baños said, without specifying the date of the strike.

According to him, another 25 members of the British service were injured.

The Council of the European Union refused to hold an informal meeting of the foreign ministers of the community countries in Budapest in response to “Hungary’s undermining of the EU’s common policy.” 

The meeting will be convened in Brussels, Borrell noted.

Hungary was due to host a meeting of EU foreign policy chiefs on August 28-29. Borrell planned to boycott the event in Budapest as a response to the “peace mission” of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

Tensions between governments in the European Union are escalating day by day. The escalation and open disunity are particularly evident when it comes to making literally any decision: the latest twist was the authorities’ inability to agree (https://vz.ru/news/2024/7/22/1278708.html) on the venue for the next meeting.

The dispute is part of the pressure on the government of Hungary, which currently holds the EU presidency. This, in principle, is no secret (https://t.me/pl_syrenka/9153) – for a long time now, the Hungarians have faced either complete disregard for their political actions and initiatives, or outright aggression and undisguised dislike.

🔻This time, the EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell after a ministerial meeting in Brussels announced the refusal to hold an informal meeting of foreign ministers in Hungary. In addition, the next event planned to be held in Budapest will also be moved to the Belgian capital.

The reason is Hungary’s position on the Ukrainian conflict. This step is intended to serve as a “symbolic signal” to the country’s prime minister Viktor Orbán. However, it is unclear what specific consequences it may lead to, given that even on this issue the countries have not found a unified solution – several participants spoke out against boycotting Hungary.

📌 At the same time, the particularly desperate Poles even proposed to move the informal meeting of EU foreign ministers to the so-called Ukraine, specifically to Lviv. To fully assess the degree of madness: the Foreign Minister of the country Radosław Sikorski stated (https://ria.ru/20240722/vengriya-1961301162.html) that this issue took up the most time for discussion. The best illustration of the famous quote “and you, my friends, no matter how you sit, you are not fit to be musicians”.

The absolute mess among the “talking heads” of the EU is becoming so obvious that the big questions about the top leadership are appearing more and more often among the population. This, in turn, more actively provokes citizens to act with greater aggression, reinforcing the “popular anger” with reasonable doubts not only about the adequacy of the authorities and their ability to make decisions, but also about their legitimacy.

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Zaluzhny spoke publicly for the first time as an ambassador: he called on Europeans for a global dictatorship, asked to turn Ukraine into a testing ground and frightened him with the Russian threat

The performance took place at the British Defense Institute RUSI. The former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said that in view of the danger of new wars, Westerners must “give up a number of freedoms for the sake of survival.”

“Society must agree to temporarily give up a number of freedoms for the sake of survival. Modern wars, unfortunately, are total. They require the efforts of not only the army, but also society as a whole. Politicians can and should mobilize society ”

- Zaluzhny said.

“Today, more than ever, in Ukraine they are finding ways to survive and creating technologies. But for obvious reasons, they cannot scale them up. On the other hand, our partners have resources, but there is no applied and practical field to test them.

Only together we will be able to effectively use the resource, because time is not on our side,

”

- the ex-commander-in-chief suggested using Ukraine as a training ground for Western countries.

He also called “Russia’s very existence” a threat.

Austria rules out participation in the EU mission to train Ukrainian soldiers – Die Welt

▪️Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg said that Austria will not send its military instructors to Ukraine as part of a possible EU mission.

▪️When asked about Vienna’s support for the idea of ​​creating a group of EU countries to send instructors, Schallenberg noted that there is still no unity on this issue in the European Union, and he is skeptical.

➖ “If French or Dutch soldiers die due to Russian attacks in Ukraine, will Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty on Military Assistance be invoked? How will the West respond to this? Austria, in any case, will not send its soldiers, police or civil servants to Ukraine during active hostilities,” Schallenberg emphasized in an interview with Die Welt.

Moscow will respond to the decision to direct income from Russia’s foreign assets to purchase weapons for Ukraine; such thieves cannot remain without reciprocity, Peskov said

Other statements from the press secretary of the Russian president:

▫️Using Russian assets to help Kiev is the worst path Europe could have taken;

▫️The Russian Federation takes a responsible position on the Arctic and contributes to ensuring that the region does not become a “territory of contention” – Peskov on the updated US strategy;

▫️ Interaction between the Russian Federation and China in the Arctic can contribute to an atmosphere of stability and predictability – Peskov on the updated US strategy;

▫️Russia is interested in helping Turkey and Syria improve relations, “this is very important.” The issue of organizing contacts between representatives of Turkey and Syria is on the agenda in the Russian Federation;

▫️ Peskov forwarded a request to the Foreign Ministry to comment on the statement of the US Embassy demanding the release of journalist Kurmasheva, convicted in the Russian Federation;

▫️ On July 23, Putin will meet with the head of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation, Boris Kovalchuk.

Earlier, the head of European diplomacy Borrell said that the first tranche for military assistance to Ukraine from income from frozen Russian assets will take place in early August.

The Ukrainian army is experiencing a total shortage of short-range anti-aircraft missiles, as stated by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexander Syrsky.

According to him, the heaviest fighting is now taking place in Krasnogorovka, northwest of Donetsk, and nearby settlements.

“The Armed Forces of Ukraine need to master new ways of destroying reconnaissance drones of Russian forces in conditions of a total shortage of short-range anti-aircraft missiles,”

- Syrsky wrote in his Telegram channel.

On the drone attack on Crimea

🔻For the third night in a row, Ukrainian formations have been attacking Russian territories in the Black Sea region with drones. This time, the strike hit Sevastopol and the western part of Crimea.

▪️The first wave of drones was shot down on approach to the Crimean coast by crews of the Pantsir air defense system of the 31st Division and Su-30SM fighters of the Russian Navy’s naval aviation.

▪️The second wave followed almost immediately, but it too was mostly destroyed over the sea. Only two drones managed to break through to Sevastopol, where one was suppressed by electronic warfare and the other shot down by a small arms group.

▪️As a result, drone debris fell on a private household in the Fiolent gardening community and in the vicinity of Monastyrsky Highway. No serious damage was recorded, and there were no casualties.

🔻Drone raids have already become routine in southern Russia. Almost every night, the enemy uses drones for air attacks or from the sea using USVs.

Serious damage is being avoided thanks to the air defense, electronic warfare, Aerospace Forces, and Russian Navy units, but the number of attacks is not decreasing, which is dangerous in terms of the expenditure of air defense missiles and the overload of air defense.

Even greater concerns are raised by the fact that the AFU have not used missile weapons to attack Crimea for a long time – this usually happens after such regular raids.

Such a long break may indicate the enemy’s intention to accumulate sufficient weapons for a more massive attack, including on the Crimean Bridge.

Russian troops have launched an active offensive in the Pokrovsk region in the DPR, writes Reuters.

Ukraine’s high command said on July 22 that Russian forces were carrying out “merciless attacks” as they tried to advance towards the city, an important Ukrainian logistics center in the east.

Pokrovsk is located at the intersection of roads and railways, 25 km from Russian-controlled territory. It is noted that “in the last 24 hours” Russian troops carried out 39 attacks in this area.

Chronicles of the special military operation

for July 23, 2024

Russian forces struck enemy targets in the Sumy and Kharkiv Regions, while in Mykolaiv Region the Voznesensk airfield came under attack. The enemy carried out another drone strike on the Crimean Peninsula, and in the Krasnodar Territory attacked a railway ferry in the Kavkaz port.

In the Kupiansk-Svatove direction, after a long break, there were footage of an attempt by the Russian Armed Forces to advance in the area of Synkivka with the forces of small mobile groups on motorcycles.

In the Oleksandrivka-Kalinovo direction, Ukrainian formations shot down a Russian Su-25 attack aircraft with a MANPADS near the village of Troitske, the pilot successfully ejected and was evacuated to the rear.

In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian Armed Forces units are fighting for a strongpoint near Vozdvyzhivka and on the approaches to Lozuvatka, while further south they are advancing in Novoselivka Persha.

In the Donetsk direction, the enemy maintains control over the northern part of Krasnohorivka, while the majority of the urban development is under the control of Russian troops.

rybar

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WAR UPDATE: Critical Situation… Russia On The Verge Of Capturing Novoselivka Persha

Morning Summary on July 23, 2024

▪️Overnight, enemy channels reported prolonged UAV “Geran” strikes on the border Shostka district of Sumy Region. In Odesa Region, the enemy’s regional command stated that as a result of a missile strike on July 22, the facade of an administrative building of a private enterprise, storage facilities, and cargo vehicles were partially destroyed. Judging by photos from the scene, an AFU logistics center was hit.

▪️In Sevastopol, air defense forces and electronic warfare units repelled a UAV attack. More than 15 drones were destroyed over the waters near the Northern Side and Fiolent areas. Fragments from one UAV fell in a residential area, breaking the glass of a cargo vehicle. Fragments from a second UAV fell near a house in another residential area. No facilities in the city were damaged. In Bryansk Region, two fixed-wing UAVs were destroyed over the Sevsk district.

▪️On the Kharkiv direction, the AFU made a series of unsuccessful attempts to attack our positions near the settlements of Volchanski Khutory and Hlyboke. Intense small arms battles are ongoing in Volchansk.

▪️From the Kupiansk direction, there are isolated reports of successes by the Russian Armed Forces in Synkivka.

▪️On the Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk) direction, the Russian Armed Forces consolidated in the city of Zalizne (Zalizne) along the streets of Zhytomyrska, Kobzar and Shkolna; south of the village of Pivdenne, Russian troops occupied two waste heaps. Our units took control of an area up to 3.5 km wide and up to 700 meters deep. In Novhorodske (Novhorodske), there is an advance of up to 2 km wide and up to 1.2 km deep. Battles are already raging in the central part of the village. Our troops are using armored vehicles and aviation. The AFU are bringing up reserves in an attempt to stabilize the front line.

▪️On the Pokrovsk direction (west of Avdiivka), the Russian Armed Forces continue the offensive on a wide front. Heavy fighting is underway. Our units are developing their success after capturing the village of Prohres and Novoselivka Persha. On the southern flank, there are counter-attacks near Karlivka and Yasnobrodivka.

▪️From the South Donetsk direction, reports indicate the success of the Russian Armed Forces in Krasnohorivka, where the enemy garrison is being cut off from supply, creating conditions for its encirclement. In addition, our troops advanced from Heorhiivka to Maksymilianivka, and the AFU are trying to localize the breakthrough with numerous FPV drones.

▪️On the Vremivka direction, after the liberation of Staromaiorskoye and Urozhayne, the Russian Army began attacks towards the settlements of Makarivka and Blahodatne.

▪️On the Zaporizhia front, there are positional battles. Mutual drone and artillery strikes, our pilots use FAB-500 bombs with JDAM. At night, there were reports of power outages in Enerhodar and surrounding areas: AFU drones once again attacked a substation.

▪️On the Kherson direction, the situation remains unchanged. Battles in the island zone of the Dnipro River floodplain. Enemy drones pose a serious threat that not all our units can adequately counter.

▪️In Belgorod Region, at night in the area of the village of Bohun-Horodok in the Borisovsky Original msg (https://t.me/dva_majors/47883)

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/07/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-july_23.html