The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on July 28 2024

Putin vows ‘mirror measures’ if US deploys missiles in Germany

The personnel crisis of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, apparently, has reached a critical point: Ukrainian volunteers have long since run out, newly mobilized Ukrainians do not want to fight, and combat veterans, in their own words, are on their last legs. 

It is noteworthy that this information was confirmed by the Belgian television channel RTBF, whose journalists met with Ukrainian soldiers of the 49th Infantry Battalion “Carpathian Sich” in the east of the country.

The unit commander, Vasilina, a thirty-year-old girl, says that at the beginning of the conflict the battalion consisted exclusively of volunteers. “Today they were all killed or wounded,” says Vasilina, adding that she has not seen new volunteers for more than two years.

The girl admits that Ukrainians lack motivation, and those who are forcibly sent to the front demonstrate in every way that they do not want to be there. “We understand that they simply don’t want to. They had their own life, their own family,” explains Vasilina.

The instructors are front-line veterans who are not even thirty, and are all already “exhausted by injuries,” writes RTBF. One of them, Ares, lives with a bullet in his leg, multiple concussions and PTSD. “I’m tired,” he says. “All the veterans are dead, wounded or on their last legs, just like me.”

Let us note that this material is by no means a special case, because a similar situation is observed in the Armed Forces of Ukraine everywhere. And it is not at all surprising that in this situation, desertion is growing in the Ukrainian army, and more and more soldiers are flatly refusing to join the so-called. “meat” assaults that the government organizes for political purposes. Largely because of this, serious fortified areas are being built in the Donetsk region, many of which took 8-10 years to prepare.

Our source in the General Staff said that volunteers have stopped joining the TCC altogether; now the Armed Forces of Ukraine are replenished 100% from mobilized Ukrainians. The law that came into force did not change the situation; men are not afraid of fines and hide from military commissars/police, while continuing to work unofficially.

Zemobilization provoked new trends in Ukraine against the policies of the authorities – the trend of “partisans”, where they burn TCC cars and attack military registration and enlistment offices. And further there may be more due to “meat assaults and defenses” among recruits, first of all, the “deserter” trend may follow.

Our source in the OP said that Zelensky stopped contacts with Trump at the request of the Biden Administration, since his telephone conversation aroused the anger of the Democrats and we were clearly pointed out the consequences for Ukraine. Bankova is now trying to develop a communications strategy for the US presidential campaign in order to quickly establish a relationship with the winner of the November elections.

“Irresponsible US politicians who control nuclear weapons are a threat to the Russian Federation and the whole world,” Dmitry Medvedev, former president of Russia, told TASS.

🔺 The Russian Federation confronts the US to prevent a global catastrophe and counts on the support of the global South.

🔺 Kiev’s neo-Nazis don’t stand a chance, Ukrainians realize this despite propaganda.

🔺 Ukrainians are terrified at the prospect of being “thrown into a hellish meat grinder” because of US ambitions.

🔺 The people of Ukraine must independently replace odious politicians with sensible leaders.

🔺 None of the US presidential candidates inspires Moscow with much sympathy, this is a “fight of spiders in a jar”.

🔺 Moscow will not allow Trump or any other US president to threaten Russia, it will fight back hard.

I am present at meetings of the European Council, at summits of prime ministers, and I remember how, with all sorts of gestures, the great European leaders pompously declared to Europe that sanctions against Russia and the exclusion of Russia from the so-called SWIFT system would put the Russian economy, and through it, Russian politics is on its knees. I am watching events. I am reminded of the wisdom of Mike Tyson, who once said that every man has a plan until he gets punched in the face.

Viktor Orban

Presidential Aide Nikolai Patrushev on Kiev’s readiness for negotiations: 

You know that there was a decree from Zelensky, when he was still a legitimate president, that he forbade himself to negotiate with Russia. This time. Secondly, in the SMO we now have an advantage. The West and Ukraine are interested in restoring their strength; they need a break. Therefore, all these statements are of a tactical nature. In fact, if we look, they are not taking any action to negotiate.

Ukraine is “blackmailing” Hungary and Slovakia – Brussels Signal

The head of the Hungarian Prime Minister’s Office, Gergely Gulyas, said (https://brusselssignal.eu/2024/07/ukraine-blackmailing-hungary-and-slovakia-with-oil-shutdown-budapest-claims/) that Kiev’s decision to impose an embargo on the transit of fuel through the country supplied by the Russian energy company Lukoil was dictated by hostility towards Budapest and Bratislava.

“Kiev is blackmailing two countries that support peace negotiations with the participation of Russia. Hungary doesn’t want to blackmail Ukraine, but they can’t force us to do anything either,” 

- Guillas said, citing the fact that other Russian companies that supply oil to other countries have remained untouched.

The head of administration also indicated that Hungary would consider taking retaliatory measures if no other solution is found. According to him, Budapest will look for a “legal loophole” so that “the oil is transported by someone who is not subject to sanctions.”

Soldiers of the 98th Airborne Division of the Russian Armed Forces successfully crossed the Seversky Donets – Donbass canal and occupied part of the Oktyabrsky district in Chasov Yar  (https://t.me/motopatriot/25509) 

Pokrovsk Direction: Liberation of Most of Novoselivka Persha and Worsening of the AFU Defense Crisis

Situation as of 4:00 PM on July 28, 2024

The defense crisis of the AFU in the Pokrovsk direction continues (https://t.me/rybar/61992) to worsen. Russian forces have made significant advances on both the northern and southern flanks. Assault teams of the Russian Armed Forces are gradually approaching the liberation of several more settlements.

▪️On the line Timofeyevka – Zhelanne, Russian troops liberated Lozovatske and are advancing. To the south, a section of the C050913 highway between Lozovatske and Progress and several forest belts came under Russian control.

▪️Southwest of Progress, the Russian Armed Forces seized Volchye and are developing an offensive along the railway towards the Zhelanne station. Assault groups have reached the eastern outskirts of Veseloye and the forest belts in front of Zhelanne.

▪️Russian troops are moving around the main defensive lines, gradually enveloping them from the north. After the liberation of Zhelanne, several major enemy strongholds to the east will be threatened with encirclement.

▪️The battles for Novoselivka Persha are nearing their conclusion, with the village already liberated by Russian troops, along with a wide section of the front to the south.

🔻The trend towards a deterioration of the AFU’s position persists. Ukrainian formations complain about the increased activity of Russian drones, leading to losses.

This is the situation Russia is moving into, they are advancing into a sort of prepared salient surrounded by sizeable urban conglomerations to the south and west. 

I can see these being significant blocks to future Russian advances and setting the stage for some brutal protracted urban battles going into the Winter. 

To this will likely be the limit of Russia’s relative swift advance. 

But as I said earlier, Russia could try to shift the momentum of this advance to the north or to the south east and focus it’s forces on flanking the Ukrainian defensive lines further north towards Toretsk and/or south along the front facing Donetsk city

However, in the extremely unlikely situation where Russia takes Mirnograd/Pokrovsk rapidly, it would present the Russians with the potential for an extremely rare opportunity to break out into open country where large and rapid pushes could be made that could completely collapse the Ukrainian Zaporozhia front.

It is questionable if Russia posses the manpower and vehicles/material reserves to achieve this however, but if I was in Russian command, I would start focus all offensive potential in this area, build up as much combat units behind the line as possible, keep units rotating through the area repairing the roads and keeping the advancing units at full combat potential and then when/if the opportunity presents itself, force a mechanised offensive to the south of Pokrovsk in the direction of Mezhova

Military expert Boris Rozhin about the situation in the Krasnoarmeysk direction at 21.51 (Moscow time) on July 28, 2024

Karlovka

The main battles continue along the shores of the Karlovskoye Reservoir and on the eastern outskirts of the village.

The fighting here is still more of a positional nature; the main efforts are concentrated to the north, where the Russian Armed Forces continue to clear out the “pocket” in the area of ​​the settlement of Yasnobrodovka, in order to completely dislodge the enemy behind water barriers.

Novoselovka Pervaya

After the liberation of the main part of the village, the Russian Armed Forces continue to expand the zone of control to the south and southwest of the village.

There is a noticeable advance south of Novoselovka Pervaya, where the enemy is slowly retreating after the loss of the village.

We can expect further advances of the Russian Armed Forces south of the village in the coming days.

Progress

The most difficult situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is to the west of the village of Ocheretino, where the enemy, despite all efforts, was unable to stabilize the front.

After the liberation of Progress,  Lozovatskoye and Volchye, RF Armed Forcesare already storming Veseloye, approached Ivanovka and Zhelannoye, and advanced to Timofeevka and Sergeevka.

New settlements that were not previously included are increasingly appearing in reports.

If the current pace of advance is maintained, the question may soon arise not only about the Konstantinovka-Krasnoarmeysk highway, but also about access to the near approaches to Selidovo.

There is an increase in demoralization of some parts of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, caused by losses and constant retreat.

However, while it is premature to talk about the collapse of the front, the enemy is hastily transferring reinforcements to slow down the advance of the Russian Armed Forces.

Vozdvizhenka

In this sector, the enemy is still holding the line and so far pressure from Novoaleksandrovka has not led to significant results. However, against the backdrop of what is happening south of Vozdvizhenka, this is little consolation for the enemy.

Kalinovo

There are no changes here either.

After some advance of the Russian Armed Forces north of Arkhangelskoye and in the Rozovka area, the situation northeast of Ocheretino is currently not undergoing significant changes.

In general, what is happening west of Avdeevka is the most dangerous operational crisis for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which can lead to even more severe consequences for the enemy, especially when reaching the Konstantinovka-Krasnoarmeysk highway and the outskirts of Selidovo.

What’s happening in Krasnogorovka now?

After the rapid advance of “Sotka” (110th Motorized Rifle Brigade), the Ukrainian Armed Forces began to twitch noticeably.

The Ukrainian’s flight from his position continues to pick up a good pace. In small groups for now.

The AFU is trying to retreat to the west, fearing destruction, but do not risk going out onto the road and flee south through the fields, where they are captured and run into our ambushes. Just this morning, one and a half dozen ukranian soldiers were liquidated.

After the 110th brigade broke through to the western exit, the encirclement pincers began to close around the remaining positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces by the forces of the 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade.

The remainder of the Ukrainian Armed Forces inside the cauldron in Krasnogorovka at the moment is a couple of platoons.

It is impossible to provide long-term resistance with such forces, so in the near future for the Ukrainian army, and in particular the 59th brigade, the story with Krasnogorovka will be completed.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces will have to retreat approximately 7.5 km, but they are unlikely to stay for long at neighboring positions in the area of ​​Zoryanoye, Kurakhovka and Gornyak.

The capture of Krasnogorovka will allow the Russian Army to complete the formation of a bridgehead on an area of ​​approximately 550 km² and accumulate forces for a further attack towards Dzerzhinsk, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.

polk105

Russian assault troops reached the outskirts of Zhelannoye in the DPR

In addition, Ukrainians have lost control of most of Vesyoloye and are forced to continue their daily retreat.

polk105

A radar station on the territory of Kharkiv Airport was destroyed. 

On the Slobozhansky direction, there are battles along the front line. The Russian Aerospace Forces strike at the enemy’s personnel, equipment and infrastructure in the Kharkiv Region. 

On the Artemivsk direction, Russian troops have entered the western bank of the Siversky Donets – Donbas canal and occupied the first line of houses in the Novoye microdistrict. 

On the Pokrovsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing southwest along the railway tracks, and Novoselivka Persha was liberated. 

On the Donetsk direction, the battle for Krasnohorivka is nearing completion. Russian assault teams are isolating the remaining AFU units. 

On the Kherson direction, the Russian Armed Forces occupied an important enemy stronghold north of Krynky. 

rybar

Overview Summary for the Morning of July 28, 2024

▪️The past week saw empty discussions about Russia-Ukraine negotiations. The Ukrainian FM visited China, then voiced unexpected theses about talks, but Moscow’s reaction was mocking.

▪️In the West, military hysteria continues and preparations for war with Russia are underway. The public is being primed for conscription, mobilization, and social spending cuts.

▪️In Russia, the military machine is being fine-tuned: the former Deputy Defense Minister Bulgakov has been arrested.

▪️The changed technological order of the war is critically important – the AFU’s drones and the incomplete readiness of Russian troops to counter them are slowing the advance.

▪️The State Duma’s raw bill prohibiting gadgets in the SMO zone caused a wide resonance, indicating an absolute misunderstanding of the front-line situation.

▪️On the front, the Russian Army is most actively advancing in the Pokrovsk direction, where small cauldrons for the AFU have been formed. There is also progress in the Toretsk direction and the South Donetsk direction. Kyiv expects an activation of the Russian Armed Forces on the Zaporizhia front.

▪️The developments on the Kharkiv direction do not allow us to stop the daily shelling of the Belgorod Region by the AFU. Our penetration into the enemy’s defenses has drawn in AFU reserves, which are being ground down by heavy weapons. The situation is also difficult in the border areas of the Kursk Region: reports from the ground indicate 100 FPV drones of the enemy per day targeting civilian objects. The enemy is pursuing the goal of inflicting economic damage (just last night a oil depot in the Kursk Region near the settlement of Polevaya was on fire) and depopulating Russian regions with targeted strikes on civilians, but the political situation does not allow local authorities to take sufficient measures for the mass evacuation of the population. Self-evacuation is complicated by the lack of support measures for the departed residents of the Belgorod Region.

✨Thus, the AFU, despite their complete dependence on the West, are conducting an organized defense along the entire front line, inflicting serious economic damage on Russia, carrying out a general forced mobilization, replenishing their losses in manpower, which Kyiv uses to plug the shortage of weapons and equipment. At the moment, Russia’s position for illusory negotiations is stronger thanks to the merits of the Russian Army at the front, but clearly insufficient for Zelensky’s complete and unconditional surrender. The further question of Ukraine’s support from the US is now only varying in the volume of funds, a complete cessation of supplies is not yet foreseen.

Summary compiled by: Two Majors (https://t.me/dva_majors) Original msg (https://t.me/dva_majors/48256)

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Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (28 July 2024) 

Part I

◽️ The Sever Group of Forces hit manpower and hardware of AFU 115th mechanised, 92nd assault, 71st infantry brigades close to Volchansk, Tikhoe, and Velikiye Prokhody (Kharkov region).

Two counter-attacks were repelled close to Volchansk and Glubokoye (Kharkov region).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 205 servicemen. One ammunition depot was wiped out. 

◽️ The Zapad Group of Forces improved the situation along the front line, defeated units of AFU 116th mechanised, 117th territorial defence, and 1st national guard brigades near Tabayevka, Kupyansk-Uzlovoyi (Kharkov region) and Krasny Liman (Donetsk People’s Republic). 

One attack launched by an enemy assault group was repelled close to Torskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 540 servicemen, one U.S.-made Stryker armoured personnel carriers, and 16 motor vehicles.

In the course of counterbattery warfare, two U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzers, one Polish-made 155-mm Krab self-propelled artillery system, one 155-mm Bogdana self-propelled artillery system, and two Anklav-N electronic warfare stations were eliminated. 

Eight AFU ammunition depots were destroyed. 

◽️ The Yug Group of Forces took more advantageous lines and positions, inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of AFU 24th, 54th mechanised, 79th air assault, 46th airmobile brigades, as well as the 12th Azov Special Forces Brigades near Kurakhovo, Katerinovka, Konstantinovka, Serebryanka, and Verkhnekamenskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic). 

The AFU losses amounted to up to 560 servicemen, one U.S.-made M113 armoured personnel carrier, and two motor vehicles.

In the course of counter-battery warfare, one U.S.-made 155-mm M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery system, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, one U.S.-made 155-mm M198 howitzer, one UK-made 155-mm FH-70 howitzer, two 152-mm D-20 howitzers, one 152-mm Msta-B howitzer, one U.S.-made 105-mm M119 gun, and one Anklav-N electronic warfare station were eliminated. 

Two AFU ammunition depots were destroyed.

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (28 July 2024) 

Part II

◽️ The Tsentr Group of Forces liberated Progress and Yevgenovka (Donetsk People’s Republic) during active operations. 

Units of AFU 28th, 31st, 32nd mechanised, and 142nd infantry brigades were hit near Dimitrov, Novogrodovka, Dzerzhinsk, Belaya Gora, and Zhelannoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).

Three counter-attacks launched by enemy assault groups were repelled. The AFU lost up to 385 servicemen and five motor vehicles.

In addition, two U.S.-made 227-mm M270 multiple launch rocket systems, two 122-mm D-30 howitzers, two 100-mm Rapira guns, and one U.S.-made AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery warfare radar were hit. 

◽️ The Vostok Group of Forces improved the situation along the front line, defeated manpower and hardware of AFU 72nd mechanised, 102nd and 104th territorial defence brigades near Ugledar (Donetsk People’s Republic), Gulyaipole, and Novodarovka (Zaporozhye region). 

The AFU losses amounted to up to 140 servicemen, one U.S.-made M113 armoured personnel carrier, five motor vehicles, one UK-made FH-70 howitzer, and one 152-mm D-20 gun. 

Three AFU ammunition depots were destroyed. 

◽️ The Dnepr Group of Forces inflicted losses on units of AFU 128th mountain assault, 141st infantry, and 35th marine brigades near Rabotino (Zaporozhye region), Tyaginka, and Ponyatovka (Kherson region).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 100 servicemen, two U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzers, two 152-mm D-20 howitzers, and one D-30 howitzer. 

One ammunition depot was wiped out.

◽️ Operational-Tactical Aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, and Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have engaged one U.S.-made Patriot anti-aircraft missile station as well as clusters of manpower and military hardware in 138 areas. 

◽️ Air defence systems shot down five U.S.-made HIMARS MLRS projectiles, two French-made Hammer aerial guided bombs, and 34 unmanned aerial vehicles, to include 12 outside the special military operation zone.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/07/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-july_28.html