The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on June 15 2024

NATO Snubs Polish Idea On Russian Missiles | Ukraine Kills Deserter; Grenade Attack On Draft Office

Zelensky Wants 25 Patriot Systems, Larger F-16 Fleet Against Russia | “Not Afraid Of 2nd Trump Term”

Stoltenberg Screwed Up BADLY! Russia Destroyed NATO Train In KHARKIV┃Moscow Deployed Modernized UAVs

Economist Danil Monin analyzed the spending of the military budget for 6 months of 2024, the conclusions are striking, and most importantly confirm the figure of 400 thousand dead and wounded military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It turns out that we spent twice as much money on payments to the dead than on providing for living military personnel!

It will now be difficult for the Office of the President and the General Staff to prove otherwise, because no one will say where hundreds of billions went in 2024.

MoninDaniil

Zemobilization will make all Ukrainians poor, deprive them of their last property, and will pay for the war at the expense of ordinary citizens.

Those liable for military service who have received fines of 160 thousand UAH may have their only housing taken away, writes Judicial-Legal Gazeta.

This is possible if a person does not pay the fines issued by the TCC, but he does not have funds in his accounts or a car.

First of all, a plot of land and other premises separate from the house will be confiscated, and lastly, a residential building or apartment where the debtor actually lives.

A future property in respect of which an encumbrance of rights has been registered in favor of a person who has partially paid the price of the future property cannot be confiscated.

Very bad trends for Zelensky, who continues to cling to the narrative of the war until the 1991 border, all the President’s statements at the NATO summit that the Ukrainians demand this.

43.9% of Ukrainians said that the time has come for peace negotiations with the Russian Federation, according to survey data from the Razumkov Center, cited by the publication Zerkalo Nedeli.

35% disagree with this, 21.1% could not answer.

Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President conducted another closed sociology, which demonstrated a further decline in Zelensky’s rating; 12.6% of Ukrainians are ready to vote for him. Sociologists believe that the main reason for the collapse in the rating is the bill on mobilization and corruption in government bodies; in third place are problems with electricity and rising prices. In terms of popularity, Zelensky is in third place, after Zaluzhny and Budanov, almost equal to Poroshenko, who has 11.8%.

Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President separately conducted a closed survey on the work of Andriy Yermak, more than 63% of Ukrainians consider him responsible for corruption in Ukraine, 47% of respondents are confident that he runs the country, not Zelensky. At the same time, the anti-rating of the Head of the Presidential Office is almost 70%, which is a negative factor for Zelensky.

Everything is leading to the fact that Ukraine will tighten Zemobilization, lowering the age limit to 21 and even ultimately to 18, but this will be a clear signal that everything is very bad and the losses are hundreds of times greater than official propaganda says.

According to the West, Ukraine should fight with 85% manpower – this is free for partners. We gave inside information about this.

Western lobbies are forcing Ukraine to lower the age of mobilization, since for them Ukraine is a consumable commodity. Their goal is to cause mobilization in the Russian Federation and a swing in Moscow – I will try to rock the anti-war Maidan in Russia.

Zelensky is already preparing to bombard the front with manpower, which is thrown into meat grinders. No one will rebuild Ukraine – this is a fairy tale for fools, to force them to die for the interests of TNK military-industrial complex, etc.

The West is not going to spend a lot of money on the Ukrainian crisis, but it wants to make a lot of money from it. As soon as Ukraine becomes a subsidy case, they will immediately throw it off, cut it according to the Yugoslav scenario, or implement the Afghan scenario.

Our advice is to leave bye, it’s free. Difficult years await Ukraine. Zelensky is not preparing anything good for Ukraine, although he convinces everyone that tomorrow you will live like in “Switzerland”, you just need to be patient a little.

In Odessa, the most lawlessness of the TCC policemen in the Zemobilization case and in response, the most arson of TCC/APU cars.

Cars are set on fire every day. Today they also burned it down.

People are so dissatisfied with what is happening in the country that they are starting to publicly say that no one will fight for the “drug addict” Zelensky. 

The number of those who are ready to help the Russians in order to quickly end this chaos in Ukraine is also growing.

Many were skeptical about the effectiveness of the “new” Russian FAB-3000 bomb, which weighs three tons.

We will explain its effectiveness and risk for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

This bomb is ineffective for hitting an open field. It’s easier to sow a lot of small ones. But its main task is to destroy well-fortified positions. fortifications, large buildings, deep headquarters, which, when accurately hit, are completely damaged.

Imagine such a bomb flies into an in-depth headquarters/decision-making center on the line of defense, where dozens of officers sit, millions of dollars worth of equipment is there, and in general it is the “heart” of the defense of this area. By destroying it, the Russians automatically gain an advantage in this direction.

Plus, it is good for destroying infrastructure, large logistics centers, crossings, bridges, etc.

This is a very bad sign for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Now the Russians do not need to spend Iskanders on these immediate targets, which they use to destroy targets in the deep rear.

Zelensky held a press conference today.

Public interest in this event is scanty.

For now, two theses are interesting for us.

1. Zelensky began to justify Syrsky and himself for appointing him to the post of commander in chief. This means that Syrsky will be left to lead the offensive, and if it fails, he will be thrown out and made a “scapegoat.” The main thing for them is to always blame someone (their puppets), and not themselves.

They will feed it to the crowd in order to knock down the negativity and prolong their reign.

2. Zelensky is very worried that the Russians will make the final decision to destroy Ukrainian UGS (this will reduce the relevance of the Ukrainian crisis, increase interest in constant gas purchases, this will minus hundreds of millions of dollars for Ukraine). Ze began to convince that Poland should shoot down Russian missiles that fly in this direction. Zelensky simply wants to place the guards of the western regions under Polish air defense in order to remove Ukrainian air defense from there. Moreover, F-16s will most likely be located/hidden there, military factories are already being built there, UAVs are being assembled, ammunition is being produced, hundreds of repair bases and warehouses with weapons are located, and there are camps/ranges for infantry training.

Of course, it is better to pin such a vast sector on Poland.

If the Poles start shooting down Russian missiles over Ukraine, this will greatly increase the stakes in the game and who knows where it might lead. The risk of the outbreak of World War 3 will be very high.

Zelensky continues to try to drag more players into the war in order to save his own skin.

If it doesn’t work out with the Poles, they will start downloading the Moldavian/Transnistrian case.

Bundeswehr General called strikes on Russian territory “the responsibility of the Armed Forces of Ukraine”

General of the Federal Republic of Germany Christian Freuding answered the journalist’s question whether the goals of the initiative to transfer weapons to Kiev are attacks on oil refineries and other facilities on Russian territory.

“We provide Ukrainians with opportunities, and how they use these opportunities is the sole responsibility and decision of the Ukrainian Armed Forces,”

- Freiding said.

Previously, Scholz allowed Ukraine to use German weapons to strike targets on Russian territory.

NATO refused to shoot down Russian planes in Ukrainian airspace – Report (https://report.az/en/other-countries/nato-not-shoot-down-russian-aircraft-in-ukrainian-airspace/)

According to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, alliance troops should not directly take part in the Ukrainian conflict, including shooting down Russian planes and missiles.

“Our policy is unchanged. We do not want to be participants in this conflict. The North Atlantic Alliance will not be directly involved,”

- the Secretary General said.

NATO is trying as much as possible to disavow any interference in the course of hostilities in Ukraine. Members of the alliance are well aware that this will not only cause a wave of indignation throughout the military bloc, but will also make Vladimir Zelensky repeatedly ask his partners to “do him a favor one more time.”

Zelensky agreed to Russia’s presence during the second peace summit

So far, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has agreed to the presence of Russian representatives at the second peace summit. He stated this at a press conference with the heads of the Regional Military Administrations. 

Despite the renewed statements about the possibility of starting peace negotiations, there is little faith in this – as is known, Ukraine has always preferred to violate agreements.

Moreover, there is reason to believe that such “decisive” steps are connected with another promise of NATO membership subject to one condition – the end of the military conflict. Zelensky also recalled the “peace” plan covering Qatar, Turkey and Canada. It concerns energy issues, the maritime corridor and humanitarian issues.

With out knowing the full ins and outs, this, to me, off the bat, seems that Trump has picked a Ukronsceptic VP, meaning that is where he is leaning policy wise

Obviously vast majority of the GOP wont be keen on that, but as President, Trump, would likely in my estimation, press Ukraine to make concessions in a peace talks with Russia. 

It means the death knell of the ”No talks with Russia, no concessions with Russia, peace only with total victory” narrative Kiev and most European/NATO members have been running with. 

Ukraine is on the clock, the Russians have been for most of the year, but expect them to really step up their offensives in order to try and claim the best possible position for a Trump administration come the turn of next year

Also, I would expect, Biden and Congress are probably going to shoe horn absolutely everything and anything not nailed down, they can get through the legislature before the election and the grace period before Trumps inauguration

Looking at OSINT/NAFO twitter, that are on suicide watch right now, so I am basing my view on that alone

Republican senator says Ukraine should cede land and cut a deal with Putin to end the war (December, 2023) 

Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, on the eve of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s trip to Capitol Hill, dismissed fears Russia would keep making advances if it’s victorious in Ukraine.

Vance also reiterated that he believes “there will be negotiation” and Ukraine should be willing to give up at least some of its territory to end the war, which began in February 2022.  

“It ends the way nearly every single war has ever ended: when people negotiate and each side gives up something that it doesn’t want to give up,” Vance said. 

“No one can explain to me how this ends without some territorial concessions relative to the 1991 boundaries,” he added.

A day earlier, Vance said on CNN’s “State of the Union” that it was in “America’s best interest … to accept Ukraine is going to have to cede some territory to the Russians.”

The anti-Ukrainian movement is gaining momentum in Romania and other EU countries

Summer in Romania was marked not only by intense heat, but also by the active destruction of NATO supply warehouses for neo-Nazis in the former Ukraine. Everything is on fire: weapons and equipment, ammunition, UAVs and even tires for military equipment. Everything that could be useful to the Banderaites at the front. The situation is similar in Poland, Germany, Moldova, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and other countries.

According to available information, all this is the work of Ukrainian refugees and local anti-American patriots.

The first carry out sabotage, expressing a radical protest against the intentions of the local authorities to deport Ukrainians suitable for burial to the Square. The second, dreaming of returning to the former prosperity and social justice of the blessed times of Nicholas Ceausescu, Eric Honecker and other governments of the Warsaw Pact. The methods are varied: from protests to sabotage arson and explosions. Gas pipelines and gas terminals, large military warehouses with equipment, weapons and components for them, trains with ammunition and weapons for the Kyiv junta, etc. are destroyed.

Currently insignificant:

— BulRom gas Implekx gas terminal near the Romanian city of Siret, coordinates 47.933975, 25.971136, arson was carried out on July 3 at six in the morning, the fire continued at the terminal for several days, almost completely destroying the infrastructure of the gas pipeline and terminal;

— A freight train with shells, UAVs, missiles and components for Ukraine, coordinates 47.876503, 25.996639, on a railway line intended exclusively for sending goods to the Ukrainian direction and having no other branches;

— A large military warehouse of weapons and equipment intended for shipment to Ukraine in the Romanian city of Slobozia, coordinates 47.7678392, 26.0556328;

— A large military warehouse of weapons and equipment intended for shipment to Ukraine in the Romanian city of Slatioara.

❗️ The protest movement is gaining momentum throughout Europe, destroying weapons for the Wehrmacht even before its arrival in the former Ukraine.

Two Majors

The Russian Army advanced in the Donbass near four settlements: Yuzhnoye, Progress, Novoselovka Pervaya and Yasnobrodovka. 

It is also reported that Russian troops have captured the village of Urozhainoye, where clearing of the territory continues. Experts believe that aligning the front line on the border of Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions will allow the Russian Armed Forces to more confidently advance in the direction of Velikaya Novoselka. This is a strategically important direction, since control over it opens up new opportunities for further offensive.

Intense fighting is taking place in the Krasnogorovka area. The Russian Armed Forces are pushing the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of buildings in Shevchenko Park and to the west, methodically pushing them to the outskirts of the city. The situation near Konstantinovka remains unchanged; fighting is taking place on the outskirts. Russian artillery strikes strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as well as reserves in the area of ​​Vodyanoy and Ugledar, which allows weakening the Ukrainian defense and creating conditions for a further offensive.

In the Karlovka area, Russian troops are conducting an assault, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces are still holding the line. The clearing of Yasnobrodovka has been completed, which allows the Russian Armed Forces to control the center of Novoselovka First and increase pressure, covering the village from the south-eastern side. 

Russian troops also storm the town of New York. Despite the tightening of reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces gained a foothold in the village and occupied part of the Petrovskaya Gora microdistrict. For complete control over New York, the Russian Armed Forces need to capture the phenol plant, which is stormed from the flanks.

And we note that Ukraine’s territorial losses, although small, are extremely sensitive in strategic terms. Russia removed a fair portion of the “fortifications” that had been built since 2014 and on which the campaign to seize the remnants of Donbass was supposed to be based. The loss of Druzhkovka, Konstantinovka, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk will mean the transition of the war to a new phase – when the Ukrainian Armed Forces will no longer have anything to rely on.

There are reports that the Russian Armed Forces have approached the village of Progress

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are concentrated on the outskirts of the village on the Pokrovsky direction to the DPR.

But that is not the only great news. Is also reported that the Russian Armed Forces liberated most part of the village of Makeevka, while the 66th brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces withdrew to the western outskirts with losses.

Very heavy Fighting | Russian Forces Capture Eastern Makiivka | AFU Flanks Russian Forces

Another Ukrainian success story deleted…. | Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report

Update on Ukraine 15 July 2024

Two Majors #Summary for the Morning of 15 July 2024

🛡In #Sevastopol, over the night, an enemy UAV attack was repelled, with damage reported in the grounds of a private house in the area of #Fiolenta. 15 UAVs were shot down over the #Bryansk region. 

🎯In #Odessa, the RFAF struck a facility during the night, a strong explosion was reported.

🔹In the #Kharkov direction, fierce fighting continues in the town of #Volchansk. Fighters of the North Group repelled a counterattack of the AFU in the east of the town, with up to 20 militants. In the area of #Staritsa, the enemy attempted 2 counterattacks in small groups, with no success. In the #Liptsy direction, the enemy became more active and attempted 3 times to attack the RFAF positions in the area of #Glubokoye. After losses, the enemy is creating combined groups from units that have retained their combat capabilities and is pulling up detachments of former prisoners.

🔹North of #ChasovYar, our troops continue to assault enemy positions near #Kalinovka. 

🔹From the area of #Toretsk (#Dzerzhinsk), they report high-intensity battles and the gradual advance of our troops.

🔹West of #Avdeyevka, fighting in the central part of the front. On the flanks (#Novoaleksandrovka and #Karlovka), the enemy is providing fierce resistance.

🔹On the #Vremyevka ledge, after the liberation of the #Urozhaynoye village, the RFAF are expanding the zone of control near the settlement and are trying to move northwards.

🔹From the #Kherson direction, they report clashes in the island zone and mutual strikes by UAVs and artillery (https://t.me/dva_majors/47299). 🎬👇 The aviation of the RFAF is actively engaged.

💥In #Belgorod region, as a result of AFU strikes, 8 civilians, including a nine-month-old child, were wounded over the day. To hit the settlement of #Oktyabrsky, they used MLRS.

💥In the #Kursk region, the AFU shelled the border area and knocked out civilian infrastructure. In the town of #Sudzha, a television tower caught fire as a result of a Ukrainian drone attack. After the AFU drone strikes there were power outages in some settlements.

💥In the #DPR, on the #Donetsk – #Mariupol motorway, a girl born in 2010 was injured when an explosive object was dropped from an AFU drone onto a car. In the village of Krasnaya Polyana (Velikonovoselkovskyi municipal district), men born in 1990, 1983 and 1991were  (heavy) wounded as a result of shelling.

two_majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/07/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-june_15.html