The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on August 10 2024
Russia deploys troops, weapons in Kursk region after Ukraine incursion
Moment Of Truth! Massive Russian Reinforcements To Kursk; Ukraine Doubles Down
Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive Accelerating Ukraine’s Collapse
Russian Forces Storm Hrodivka | Kursk Front Stabilized
Ukrainian Forces Encircled Near Novoselivske | Ivanivka Has Fallen | Defensive Gaps In Kursk
BRUTAL REVENGE: Russia Eliminated Four Top Ukrainian Generals Responsible For The Attack On KURSK
Over the 24 hours, the active actions of the Sever Group of Forces and arrived reserves, Army Aviation and artillery strikes thwarted the attempts of the enemy’s mobile groups to get to the depth of the Russian territory near Ivashkovskoye, Malaya Loknya, and Olgovka.
Fire damage was inflicted on the AFU manpower and hardware near Nikolayevo-Daryino, Gusevo, Lyubimovka, Zeleniy Shliyakh, and Sverdlikovo.
Aviation and missile troops delivered strikes at the enemy’s reserves on the territory of Sumy region.
Up to 15 Ukrainian troops were eliminated as a result of a strike by a missile equipped with a thermobaric warhead at a temporary deployment area of foreign mercenaries on the southern outskirts of Sudzha.
Over the past 24, the AFU losses have amounted to up to 175 Ukrainian troops and 36 units of hardware, including 10 tanks, three armoured personnel carriers, two infantry fighting vehicles, 21 armoured fighting vehicles, one motor vehicle, three field artillery guns, and one BM-21 Grad MLRS combat vehicle.
Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to up to 1,120 Ukrainian troops, 140 units of hardware, including 22 tanks, 20 armoured personnel carriers, eight infantry fighting vehicles, 88 armoured fighting vehicles, 13 motor vehicles, two Buk-M1 self-propelled SAM systems, one BM-21 Grad MLRS combat vehicle, and six field artillery guns.
The operation to neutralise the AFU units is in progress.
Russian Defence Ministry
On the breakthrough of another section of the front in the Kursk direction
Information has appeared online about the start of battles south of the Sudzha district: Ukrainian formations, apparently, could have attempted an advance in the Belovsky district.
In the wake of this, there were also reports of battles in the Krasnoyaruzhsky district: at the moment, they are not confirmed.
🔻The following facts speak in favor of the fact that the offensive in the Belovsky district could still have taken place:
▪️ information three days old about the concentration of enemy reserves in Miropole, as well as systematic fire strikes from the Russian side;
▪️ yesterday’s battles in the village of Kucherov with AFU recon groups;
▪️ today’s reports of battles in the village of Plekhovo south of the Psel River.
📌Looking at the terrain and battle histories in this region, as well as assessing the potential of the AFU and the tactics of recent days, one can assume attempts to bypass Plekhovo in the Borki – Kucherov area or a dash to Milaevka from Goptarovka.
Such tactics would be logical for Ukrainian formations: bypassing the problematic area where the greatest attention is concentrated, entering through forest belts and tracts to a “non-media” area with the same characteristic problems (https://t.me/rybar/62565) as in the Sudzha and Korenevo districts.
Plus, this would force the diversion of some of the efforts of the “fire brigades” from Sudzha and Korenevo.
❗️However, given the abundance of rumors and “elephant radio”, when frightened people take turns telling (https://t.me/rybar/62598) each other about breakthroughs of one section after another and the AFU everywhere, drawing conclusions (https://t.me/dva_majors/49392) about the breakthrough of tank columns to a depth of 50 km (especially considering that the same people from the scene say the opposite), we would not rush. Especially given the characteristic direction (https://t.me/mig41/36073) of the sounds of clashes.
rybar
Kursk Direction: Stabilization of the Situation and Sporadic Clashes
What is known as of the end of August 10, 2024
After a series of morning and daytime attacks, the offensive activity of Ukrainian formations in the Kursk direction has decreased, although clashes are still ongoing in several settlements.
At the same time, the Ukrainian command is preparing to send new formations to the Russian border. According to preliminary information, the period from combat coordination to subsequent redeployment may take about five weeks.
🔻In the Sudzha district, Ukrainian formations continue to hold Honcharivka, from the outskirts of which they shell the eastern part of Sudzha.
▪️Ukrainian media published footage with AFU members in the village of Makhnovka, located south of Sudzha: apparently, the enemy ended up (https://t.me/rybar/62587) in the settlement in the first days of the operation, and it was then that they made the recording. However, the photos were posted online only today.
▪️There have been reports of some enemy group near Belitsa, which is more than 20 km southeast of Sudzha. However, there is no confirmation of this – it is possible that rumors about saboteurs appeared against the background of shooting at the same drones, and the sound of gunshots was taken for a skirmish nearby.
🔻In the Korenevo district, the configuration of the front has also not undergone significant changes. On the line of Russkoye Porechnoye – Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, the Russian troops precisely hit several AFU armored vehicles with “Lancets” – footage of the spectacular destruction of a T-64BV tank has already appeared online (https://t.me/creamy_caprice/6326?single).
▪️To the southeast of Korenevo, there is evidence of the presence of a group of AFU members during the day on the bank of the Krepna River near the village of Zhuravli. Most likely, these were the remnants of the enemy forces that came under fire (https://t.me/rybar/62650) in the area of Kauchuk.
📌The situation in the region itself remains (https://t.me/dva_majors/49384) quite difficult: a total of at least 76,000 people were evacuated from the border areas of the Kursk Region. Temporary accommodation points have been set up for them in eight constituent entities of the Russian Federation – at the moment they can accommodate more than four thousand people.
rybar
Kursk Direction: New Attempts of AFU Attacks
What is known as of 6:00 PM on August 10, 2024
Ukrainian formations continue to entrench themselves in the occupied part of the Kursk Region and are making attempts to advance deeper into Russian territory. The situation remains tense, although it has somewhat stabilized compared to previous days.
🔻In the Sudzha District, two Ukrainian tanks are firing from the vicinity of Honcharivka towards the eastern part of Sudzha. Earlier, there were reports of the Russian Armed Forces clearing the center and western outskirts of the city, but much of what is happening there is shrouded in the “fog of war”.
Moreover, to fully control Sudzha, it is necessary to dislodge Ukrainian formations from the western outskirts and approaches – otherwise, the AFU will continue to shell the city and carry out sorties.
▪️On the southern flank, an enemy sabotage group has infiltrated (https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/13690) the village of Plekhovo again: according to incoming information, AFU members have opened fire on civilians and are occupying homes.
▪️At the same time, Russian troops continue to strike with artillery and air power the positions and objects of the enemy both in the occupied part of the Kursk Region and in the neighboring Sumy Region. One of the hits was on the AFU’s location in the children’s camp “Kolosok” north of the village of Huyevo.
There is also unconfirmed information about the enemy’s use of chlorine-filled ammunition, as a result of which the victims have breathing difficulties and symptoms of toxic substance poisoning.
🔻In the Korenevo District, the configuration of the front has become somewhat clearer: the presence of Ukrainian formations was recorded north of Lyubimovka. There they hold positions in forest areas, the largest of which is the Kultura tract.
▪️In Korenevo itself, the situation remains relatively calm, and the Internet even publishes footage (https://t.me/dva_majors/49344) of Russian servicemen at the entrance to the village.
▪️There is also a video (https://t.me/boris_rozhin/133070) of the destruction of a Ukrainian armored group of up to 15 armored vehicles in the forest southeast of the village of Kauchuk, which was heading towards Lgov.
Against the backdrop of the lack of successful AFU actions, Ukrainian media are increasingly spreading hastily created “evidence” of their presence in various settlements, as well as using archival videos from 2022 with strikes on Russian convoys. Similarly, they present videos of the capture of border guards filmed on the first day as today’s footage.
rybar
Kursk Direction: Repelling the AFU Offensive and Liberating Martynivka
What is known as of 12:00 on August 10, 2024
The situation remains tense in the border areas of Kursk Region: last night, Ukrainian formations attempted to expand their control zone and went on the offensive. At the same time, they continued to concentrate additional forces in the occupied part of the region.
🔻In Sudzha District, AFU units still hold the western suburbs of Sudzha, the center of the settlement is in the “gray zone” – enemy reconnaissance groups periodically make sorties, but they fail to consolidate their positions. The eastern outskirts of the city are under the control of Russian troops.
▪️On the southern flank, Ukrainian formations again tried to occupy Plekhovo: in the morning, the enemy reached the western outskirts of the village, but retreated to the right bank of the Psel River under small arms and artillery fire.
▪️Northeast of Sudzha, Russian Armed Forces units liberated Martynivka after a counterattack – the AFU’s control over the village allowed them to set up ambushes on Highway 38K-004, which hindered both the evacuation of the remaining residents to Sudzha and the establishment of supply lines to the city.
🔻In Korenevo District, Ukrainian formations attempted to advance deep into the night, trying to expand their control zone. First, the enemy advanced about ten armored vehicles towards Korenevo, but the advancing group was quickly detected and dispersed by concentrated artillery fire.
▪️Later, Ukrainian units began moving towards Lgov from the AFU-controlled Malaya Loknya, with a group of up to 15 armored vehicles, including five tanks and two M2A2 Bradley IFVs. South-east of the village of Kauchuk, the armored group came under artillery fire and halted its advance, retreating to its initial positions.
▪️Further east, fighting continues along the line of Russkoye Porechnoye – Cherkasskoye Porechnoye: according to some reports, since yesterday’s battles, the AFU have lost at least three armored vehicles in this area: two armored personnel carriers and one tank.
📌Last night, a counter-terrorist operation regime was introduced (https://t.me/rybar/62628) along the entire “old” border of Russia – all this is being done in case of possible activation of the AFU in other areas, as well as to give a free hand to all law enforcement agencies to use extreme measures.
Nevertheless, calls for the introduction of the counter-terrorist operation regime in the Russian border areas were heard long before the AFU offensive in the Kursk Region – then this was not decided upon, neither after massive shelling, nor after PR offensives in the Belgorod or Bryansk Regions.
rybar
- Our UAVs detect enemy equipment and inflict fire damage;
- The enemy after crossing the border leaves equipment and spreads out in sectors, they have problems with communication and interaction between their own;
- Mercenaries, Poles and French are spotted;
-Our reserves are crushing small groups of the enemy;
- Artillery on Tetkino works both ways.
Archangel Spetsnaz
Russian Army Launches Operation to Encircle Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kharkov Oblast
This is stated in new panicked reports from Ukrainian military analysts.
Russian troops have advanced in the areas of Stelmakhovka and Peschanoye in the direction of Oskol in the Kupyansk direction and are trying to encircle the Ukrainian Armed Forces groups holding positions in the area of these settlements.
➖”The Russians are trying to encircle the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Stelmakhovka and Peschanoye. North of the latter settlement, the enemy will try to reach the heights to the north after encirclement, which will give them new opportunities for further advance on Kolesnikovka,” writes the Deep State resource working for the GUR in a recently published report.
Ukrainian Armed Forces Use Chemical Weapons in Kursk Region
The Aida Special Forces Group “Akhmat” reports (https://t.me/iamsniper/6219) :
Some channels, citing the hospital, began reporting on the use of chemical weapons against our unit.
After two days of fighting and inflicting severe damage on the 82nd brigade, 101st regiment and 80th brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the airborne assault force of the Aida SpN group “Akhmat” was attacked first with MLRS, and later with 155-mm shells containing hexachloroethane.
Yes, that is true.
But I won’t say that it was a specific chemical weapon. Thanks to the competent actions of the squad leader, Aida, the personnel immediately used IPP-11, washed the mucous membranes, and avoided any consequences of the use. Several people will remain under the supervision of a toxicologist.
The commander of the detachment Aid himself refused to be evacuated, the group continues to carry out combat missions in the normal mode. There are no killed or seriously wounded among the personnel. The special forces “Akhmat” continue to take out the enemy.
Today, the forces of the Aida SpN “Akhmat” group together with the 810th brigade liberated the village of Martynovka. Also, a column of the 82nd brigade was destroyed.
155 mm shells are NATO caliber. The chemical weapons were sent to the Ukrainians by their Western masters.
“But I won’t say that this is a specific chemical weapon.
Thanks to the competent actions of the squad leader, Aida, the personnel immediately used IPP-11, washed the mucous membranes, and avoided any consequences of use. Several people will remain under the supervision of a toxicologist.
The squad commander of Aida himself refused to be evacuated, the group continues to carry out combat missions in the normal mode.
There were no fatalities or serious injuries among the personnel.
The Akhmat special forces continue to eliminate the enemy.
Today, the forces of the Aida Special Forces group “Akhmat” together with the 810th brigade liberated the village of Martynovka.
Also, a column of the 82nd brigade was destroyed.”
What oddities were noticed in the Ukrainian Armed Forces strike in the Kursk region:
One of the most controversial aspects of the activity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region is the volume of reserves that the Ukrainian army has deployed and can actively use.
What are we talking about?
A rare American M88 ARV was spotted in one of the videos with Ukrainian Armed Forces equipment. These vehicles were first seen on video in February 2023. They were supposed to be assigned to the tank battalion of the 47th Magura Separate Mechanized Brigade on M1A1 tanks. During the summer of 2023, they were used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Zaporizhia direction, but by December they had moved to the DPR. At the moment, two vehicles of this type are known to have been destroyed in Zaporizhia, and two more were shot down and captured by Russian troops in the Donetsk region: one near Avdiivka, the second in the Pokrovsk direction, near Sergeyevka. In total, the Ukrainian Armed Forces presumably have four such vehicles left.
What does their appearance in the Kursk region mean?
The appearance of the M88A2 in the Kursk region may indicate a number of circumstances. First of all, the American ARVs were redeployed to strengthen the evacuation capabilities of the strike group, exposing the units defending in other directions. Another reason for the appearance of the M88 could be the urgent need to compensate for the losses suffered by the rear units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, since massive airstrikes were carried out on the positions and columns of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Sumy region (and in the border area) from the first day. Regardless of the reasons, the appearance of the M88 is an indicator that the Ukrainian Armed Forces command has high expectations regarding the offensive in the Kursk region and they continue to pull valuable reserves and materiel from other directions.
What else is unusual?
Also in Kursk Oblast, rare Tunguska air defense missile and gun systems have been spotted. They are used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces relatively rarely, and their redeployment to the border area of Kursk Oblast is one of the rare cases when the systems are used for their intended purpose: to cover mechanized units. It is noteworthy that earlier, in July, Tunguskas were destroyed near the village of Peschanoye near Volchansk. At present, Tunguskas have been preserved by the 1st Separate Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 72nd Separate Brigade. There is a possibility that these air defense missile and gun systems, like the M88, were taken from some units and assigned to the strike group in the Kursk direction, having been redeployed from Volchansk.
In addition, a battalion of the 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade is participating in the attack on the Kursk region, while another battalion of the same brigade remained near Volchansk.
What conclusion can be drawn?
The total number of the Ukrainian Armed Forces group in the Kursk direction, taking into account all available combat groups, is approximately four brigades supported by one artillery brigade, plus the Special Operations Forces/Guard Intelligence, plus various related detachments and groups of UAV operators. However, it is now becoming clear that in order to form this group, the Ukrainian Armed Forces command presumably had to “stripping” some brigades in other directions, including such sensitive ones as Pokrovsk or Volchansk.
In combination with the extremely unclear operational plans for the attack in the Kursk region, the entire operation increasingly looks like a gamble in conditions of a constant shortage of resources and is reminiscent of the Wehrmacht’s winter offensive in the Ardennes in 1944.
Last night, the enemy wanted to strike in several directions and concentrated fairly large forces for this. One strike on Korenevo (10 armored vehicles), a strike in the Snahost area, a strike in the Martynivka area, and most importantly, a strike on Lgov, with the aim of cutting off Rylsk, most likely going to go through the settlement of Kromski Byky. This strike, as I see it, was supposed to be the main one. 5 tanks, 2 Bradleys, and about a dozen other armored vehicles (Kazaki, MacPro). The enemy also brought in MLRS, Uragan or Bureviy, which took up position about 5 km southwest of this armored group.
The accumulation of the enemy in the treeline was noticed by a reconnaissance group of the 810th Marine Brigade, the command drew the necessary conclusions and we began to wait. The enemy cooled the equipment, covered it with special covers so that it would not glow in the thermal imager. Around 2 am, the enemy began moving towards Korenevo, in order to divert attention and give the main group a chance to break through. The Ukrainian MLRS rolled out to the firing position and then it all began. First, artillery fire on the MLRS, which did not have time to deploy, and then a missile and artillery strike on the armored group hidden in the forest. As a result, the armored group did not advance anywhere, and unfortunately there was no direct hit on the MLRS, although it landed nearby.
Simultaneously, on other sections of the front, our guys met the enemy and the Ukrainian blitzkrieg ended with the loss of equipment and scattering in the treelines to hide from the devastating fire of our artillery. Martynivka has been liberated, at least one Grad was hit by a Lancet, Uragan/Bureviy was damaged. Several tanks and armored vehicles were destroyed, some enemy manpower, but the Ukrainian losses in general still need to be clarified.
Since morning, Lancet-equipped drones and UAV operators have been hunting the scattering Ukrainians. In general, I think that the enemy will simply abandon part of the equipment, as it will simply dry out after such joyrides. The battle is far from over, but the Ukrainian night blitzkrieg was crushed in all directions.
vysokygovorit
The Ukrainian forces are not giving up on their “Blitzkrieg” attempts. A couple of days ago, they were easily entering settlements, but now they are met with a dense blockade before each village. Rushing in with several armored vehicles is no longer an option, so the Ukrainians are throwing tanks into the battle.
I want to note the heroism of the reinforcements who immediately engaged the enemy on unfamiliar terrain after being deployed. A freshly formed and untested unit yesterday stopped a tank breakthrough at Korenevo. The new contract soldiers burned at least one AFU tank with grenade launchers.
The enemy prefers maneuver, and is not yet ready to break through our defenses. In these attacks, the Ukrainians are losing a lot of armor. Our helicopters are actively engaged, and the number of Lancet drones used has noticeably increased.
The situation has stabilized for now. Our units have moved forward and are clearing a number of settlements. Sudzha is holding, and the command is making every effort to clear it of the enemy. If the enemy does not throw significant forces into battle in an unexpected place, we can say that the peak of the crisis has passed. Believe in our army, the enemy will definitely be destroyed on Russian soil.
Alexander Kharchenko
You may have noticed Ukraine continues to bleed large quantities of vehicles in their Kursk raid. Let’s talk about it.
Infantry take about 3 hours to travel 15km over easy terrain/roads. That becomes closer to 5 hours in rolling terrain, and even worse if tired or traversing rough terrain. If they have to travel to the line of contact on foot, then being spotted means several hours of drone and artillery attacks, a near certain death.
The only way Ukraine can reasonably move forces in their dispersed Kursk raid in a timely manner is by vehicle. So they keep trying to move forces around in APCs and apparently with more tank support now.
The trouble is, Russia now has their support units set up, so these vehicles die quite quickly trying to move between villages, as can be seen on video.
So Ukraine’s dilemma, do they try to slowly push infantry around to die far from their objective, or rush in vehicle support and lose valuable and scarce armor in hopes that some will arrive alive.
This is the reality of an unsupported offense with no secured main supply route to easily push trucks around.
Our source in the General Staff said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are forced to stop advancing deep into Russian territory; over the past 24 hours, there have been 17 head-on battles with our assault units, which were trying to exploit their success. The decision was made at headquarters to dig in in the captured villages and hold the bridgehead until the reserves arrive.
On the joint work of Russian and Belarusian air defense forces
The flight path of Ukrainian UAVs for today’s strike on Russian territory partially passed through the airspace of Belarus. About 13 of them were shot down (https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/38951) over Kostyukovichi – the eastern salient of the Mogilev Region, which protrudes into the Smolensk and Bryansk Regions.
The remaining six Ukrainian drones managed to reach the territory of the Yaroslavl Region, where they were intercepted on the approach to the regional center. According to data (https://t.me/evraevmikhail/6243) from Governor Mikhail Evraev, the UAVs attempted to attack one of the local enterprises, but there was no destruction or casualties at the crash site.
🔻We are far from the idea that such cases have not occurred before. Moreover, Belarusian air defense forces have regularly assisted their Russian colleagues as part of the cooperation of the Armed Forces of the Union State.
However, this time – apparently based on political realities – Belarus decided to backtrack on the decision to withdraw troops from the border and introduced reinforcement along the line of demarcation with the so-called Ukraine. Perhaps, as Revenge of Good Will (https://t.me/Mestb_Dobroj_Voli/12124) believes, now is one of the decisive moments of the SMO, when we need to achieve victory in order to ensure victory in the conflict. Perhaps, in Belarus they also understand and realize this.
Or perhaps, this is just a step that could force Ukrainian formations to redeploy forces to the border with the Republic of Belarus. The main thing is that this does not accelerate the deployment of Western peacekeeping contingents in the central and western parts of the so-called Ukraine.
rybar
Ukrainian drones violated the airspace of Belarus – Alexander Lukashenko
- The President of Belarus said that the previous evening Belarusian and Russian air defense forces shot down several Ukrainian drones that violated the airspace of Belarus.
- He specified that about a dozen targets were coming from Ukraine, some of them were destroyed over Belarus, while the rest were destroyed over Russia near Yaroslavl.
- Lukashenko emphasized that the incident showed Ukraine’s readiness to further escalate the conflict and assured that any provocations would not go unanswered.
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Belarus gave the order to deploy Polonez rocket systems, Iskander complexes, etc. to the border with Ukraine.
“We assess Ukraine’s actions as a provocation against Belarus .”
The source indicates that this could mean:
A) An attempt to pull back Ukrainian units. Bankova will have to decide whether to strengthen the border or not. As practice shows, the rear cannot be left “empty”, suddenly the Belarusians will enter (as we see from the entry of a small group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the result is “loud”, and the Belarusians can go very far in one attack if there are many of them, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are few). With such an attack, the RB troops can cut off many supply routes for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and provoke a huge panic if they approach the Rivne NPP, etc.
B) Such actions by the Republic of Belarus are preparation for an official war that Russia will declare on Ukraine and then the CSTO will begin to respond.
B) it is simply raising the stakes in behind-the-scenes trading.
We are watching, but we already understand that something very bad is approaching.
We advise Ukrainians to stock up.
The KGB of Belarus has introduced a counter-terrorist operation regime on the border with Ukraine
“Don’t worry about the war. No one is attacking us yet. They tried to stick their noses in there [on Belarusian border] – we responded. They left – we left. That is, we are reacting. Today we have something to respond with. They are not fools, they understand this too. They know that the father is the father [as Lukashenko is called by many citizens], but he can hit as well”
- Lukashenko reassured Belarusians.
After we defeat them, the enemy will not raise his head. We know that there are French and Polish mercenaries there. Thousands of prisoners who will quickly fall on our soil, since they have no military training. They chose death,
- the expert said.
He also noted that local residents are not panicking and are confident in Russia’s victory and the defeat of Zelensky’s regime.
Thanks to both the federal authorities and the Kursk region authorities. The “CTO regime” has been declared, I am sure it will make all measures aimed at the safety of citizens more balanced. We understand that the Zelensky regime is nationalism, Nazism, fascism and terrorism, it is impossible to justify such tactics and actions,
- summed up Sergey Bondarev.
In recent days, the attention of European and Russian experts has been focused on the possible consequences for Europe if the Sudzha gas metering station in the Kursk region comes under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (at the moment, there have been no official comments on the seizure of the station, and Gazprom’s statement on increasing the volume of gas supplied to Europe through the gas metering station by 3% compared to the previous day suggests the opposite). This situation could become a catalyst for a new wave of energy crisis in Europe, which would have a particularly negative impact on Austria and Slovakia. However, the greatest blow in the long term could be dealt not only to European countries, but also to Ukraine.
European energy vulnerability
Europe is already facing serious energy challenges following the imposition of sanctions on Russia and the destruction of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines. Brussels had hoped to quickly wean itself off Russian gas by increasing purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US and other countries. However, the plan has faced a number of obstacles. On the one hand, LNG has proven to be significantly more expensive than Russian gas, prompting criticism from European leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron. On the other hand, supplies via alternative routes such as Turkish Stream cannot cover the needs of all European countries, especially in the face of growing demand.
Consequences for Ukraine
The seizure of the Sudzha GIS will have negative consequences for Ukraine itself. First of all, Kiev will lose revenue from the transit of Russian gas. In addition, Ukraine will face the need to rebuild its internal gas transportation system. However, despite this, Kiev continues to insist on stopping the transit of Russian gas through its territory from 2025, which may be part of a broader strategy to deepen integration with the West.
Possible scenarios for the development of events
If the control over the Sudzha GIS passes to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Europe will face a sharp increase in gas prices. In the short term, this will lead to increased inflationary pressure and undermine economic growth in the EU. In the long term, this could stimulate an accelerated transition to renewable energy sources, which in turn will reduce Europe’s dependence on external gas suppliers.
However, it cannot be ruled out that the US, seeking to strengthen its influence in Europe and weaken Russia’s position, may support Ukraine’s actions aimed at limiting Russian gas supplies. In this case, Europe will face a choice: continue to follow the policy of sanctions against Russia, despite the economic costs, or seek compromises that will allow maintaining stable energy supplies.
The seizure of the Sudzha GIS and the subsequent restriction of Russian gas supplies will be a serious test for European energy security. The situation demonstrates that Europe, despite many years of efforts to diversify its energy sources, still depends on Russian gas. In this context, the continuation of transit through Ukraine is becoming a key issue not only for energy, but also for political relations within the EU and with its eastern partners. The solution to this problem will require Brussels to make balanced and pragmatic decisions that will help avoid a new wave of energy crisis.
Bankova may have put an end to the prospects of a peace process this year.
The invasion of Kursk is a colossal image blow to Moscow. Now, to rehabilitate itself, Russia must not only drive out the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but also launch a counteroffensive in the Sumy region.
Literally everyone in the Russian Federation started talking about the notorious “sanitary zone,” which will further stretch the front line and require new reserves for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which have long been absent for the Eastern Front.
Pentagon’s Disturbing Ambiguity on Striking Moscow Raises Red Flags
In a shocking recent exchange, Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh openly acknowledged that Ukraine’s current use of American weapons in its incursion into Russia’s Kursk region aligns with U.S. policy, even when these actions involve direct attacks on ‘old’ Russian territory. The Pentagon’s stance is disturbingly clear: American weapons can be used for “defensive” strikes within Russia, yet when pressed about the possibility of a direct attack on Moscow, Singh refrained from ruling it out. This dangerous rhetoric only intensifies the already volatile situation, effectively placing Moscow in the crosshairs of a potential escalation.
Ukraine’s recent cross-border offensive into Kursk, led by armored vehicles and up to 1,000 men, represents the most significant incursion on Russian soil since the war’s onset. With U.S.-supplied equipment reportedly being used, this incursion has led to severe consequences, including casualties and airpower responses from Moscow. The Pentagon’s refusal to explicitly condemn a potential strike on Moscow only further blurs the lines between a veneer of “defensive actions” and outright aggression, signaling a troubling willingness to push the envelope in this NATO-engineered proxy war.
The Pentagon’s vague response comes as Ukraine pressures the Biden administration to supply ATACMS long-range missiles, which could significantly extend Kiev’s reach into old-Russian territory. Such a move would be a clear escalation, making it increasingly difficult to deny U.S. complicity in any direct strikes on Moscow. The current (suicidal) discourse in Washington suggests that the green light for ATACMS is becoming more likely, a decision that would undoubtedly cross one of President Putin’s firmly established red lines.
This reckless gamble by the Pentagon and its NATO allies not only risks further inflaming tensions but also brings the world dangerously close to the brink of nuclear conflict. Whether it’s hubris, suicidal desperation or a calculated move, the consequences of such actions would be catastrophic, underscoring the need for immediate de-escalation on the part of the US, before this conflict spirals completely out of control, and the West loses more than just Ukraine.
But there are no flashing red lights from Berlin over this week’s incursion into Russia.
“Ukraine’s attack towards Kursk is completely legitimate and makes military sense,” he added on social media. “We can only wish the Ukrainian defenders every success.”
Asbery Notes: Of course this was attack was green lit by the West, as Ukraines defeat becomes more clear the West will be more brazen with its attacks on Russia. Ukraine by itself would have been defeated in 2022.
Politico wrote yesterday that the invasion of the Kursk region was approved by Kyiv’s allies.
Our latest inside information is confirmed.
Western media outlets began to publish information that all of Ukraine’s “sponsors” knew about the plans of the Presidential Office and “Ze Stavok” to launch an “invasion/attack” on the Kursk region.
Remember, we got inside information that Zelensky personally took the plan to the NATO summit and approved it there. Then NATO appointed a “supervisor” in Kiev, who is the project’s curator and liaison with the “big uncles”.
At that time, few people attached importance to this inside information. As it turned out, he drove and everyone approved.
Zelensky then arrived and gathered the headquarters, where he confirmed that everything had been approved. As a public confirmation of Zelensky’s approval of the offensive plan, they gave him an F-16.
Let’s see how this “round” ends.
German Colonel Laments: Ukrainian Attack Kursk Is Pointless.
Ukraine will not achieve strategic success by attacking Kursk Region. It is already clear that this operation will not even have operational significance.
This was stated on air by Bundeswehr Colonel on Die Welt.
- It is surprising that the Ukrainians are carrying out such an attack that will not make a deeper operational impression. This is already evident from the scale of their forces. Secondly, they themselves are under pressure in Donetsk, lacking reserves there.
It is even more surprising that they are using about a thousand people for this attack on a secondary front. But perhaps this is precisely the goal – sabotage, spreading uncertainty.
This is not the first case, we have already seen this in the Kharkov region in recent months, and Russia responded to this by creating a buffer zone near Kharkov. The Ukrainians now risk that the Russians will do something similar here, – Richter said.
Simplicus
We wrote about this in part, saying that the military is unhappy with this scenario. We pointed out that failure in the Kursk direction could cost the Ukrainian Armed Forces dearly.
For now, some of the military are unhappy and they talk about it anonymously, but it may soon turn out that everyone will hate this adventure, as was the case with the summer offensive of 2023, which everyone first promoted and then “disowned.”
In fact, everything will be decided in August-September, because this is only the first piece of the puzzle of the broad Ukrainian offensive that Zelensky was preparing.
Our source in the OP said that on Friday the decision on the start of the second stage of the counteroffensive was not made at headquarters; at the moment, the enemy has not withdrawn reserves from Ukraine. Syrsky proposed to continue the Kursk operation and strengthen the Ukrainian Armed Forces group so that the Russian army would be forced to transfer forces and aircraft to this direction.
Zelensky’s Kursk adventure may cost too much for Ukraine.
Western analysts believe in an article in the Financial Times that the Ukrainian Armed Forces operation will be considered successful under two conditions: if it forces Russia to divert resources from the Donetsk region, and if Ukraine itself can gain a foothold in the Kursk region; if this does not happen, it will be a defeat for Ukraine.
“However, if Ukrainian troops are pushed back from Russian territory without any tangible results with great losses, and the Russians continue to move towards Pokrovsk, then the top military leadership of Ukraine will be seen as having lost a huge adventure,” said Konrad Muzyka, a military analyst at the Polish security group Rochan Consulting.
The Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region has been in preparation for a long time – with the aim of distracting Russian troops from other parts of the front. Another goal is to show that Russia is “incapable of defending its own border,” and also to try to seize the initiative at the front.
This was stated to the Financial Times by former Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk.
At the same time, the publication specifies, some military analysts question the timing of the Kursk operation and the redeployment of elite units to this area – at a time when problems are growing on the front in the Donetsk region.
“By now, units of at least four Ukrainian mechanized and airborne brigades are taking part in the operation,” the FT writes.
Our source in the General Staff said that the Kursk operation did not stop the advance of the Russian army in the Pokrovsky direction/Toretsk/Chasov Yar. We began to lose reserves and equipment in the Kursk region and now Syrsky is forced to transfer troops/equipment there and spend ammunition.
In the Toretsk direction, the Russians are advancing in Druzhba. In addition, the enemy troops have expanded the capture zone by 400 meters in the area of Gorlovskaya Street in New York, where fighting is taking place in the center of the village, as well as to the southwest of it in the Panteleimonovka area.
In the Pokrovsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are also having success in the fields south of Vozdvizhenka and are fighting on the southeastern approaches to Grodovka and northeast of Sergeevka.
Slobozhansky Direction: AFU PR Sortie and the Situation in Volchansk
Situation as of 3:00 PM on August 10, 2024
Against the backdrop of the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk Region, the situation also remains tense in the Slobozhansky Direction. While in the area of Volchansk, Starytsia and Hlyboke in the Kharkiv Region, heavy positional battles continue, in the Belgorod border area, the enemy decided to make a new media sortie.
🔻In the morning hours, the AFU struck a series of blows on the Hraivornon City District, including the village of Poroz, located 2.5 kilometers from the Russian-Ukrainian border. While the village was under artillery preparation, an enemy group moved towards it.
▪️In Poroz, Ukrainian saboteurs quickly recorded a video near the building of the local village club and hastily retreated, capturing two local residents in the process. Later, these frames were posted by Ukrainian resources, and the village itself was closed for entry.
▪️According to some reports, the AFU members also carried out another PR sortie a little southeast, filming a similar video in the village of Mokra Orlivka. However, the recording was not published: apparently, either the sortie was not as successful, or the enemy decided to post it later.
🔻Meanwhile, in the north of the Kharkiv Region, fierce battles have been raging for the fourth month in a row:
▪️In the area of Hlyboke, the situation remains quite tense: although the enemy has long since not carried out counterattacks, he actively uses drones to strike at evacuation groups and supply lines of the Russian Armed Forces leading to the village.
▪️In the area of Starytsia, the configuration of the front in the Kohutovo Tract was once again clarified. Given the constant shelling of Ukrainian positions in this area, it is obvious that the Russian Armed Forces did not occupy positions there since the offensive in the Kharkiv Region.
▪️In Volchansk itself, the Russian troops slightly improved their tactical position. The enemy uses drones to strike at positions in the development on Korolenko Street, where the assault teams of the Russian Armed Forces managed to advance by a hundred meters. A similar situation is at the Aggregate Plant, where the AFU are trying to destroy the surviving shops using explosives delivered on tracked platforms.
Also, a few days ago, Russian media reported on the control of the Russian Armed Forces over Sotnitskyi Kozachok and Lukashivka. However, both settlements have changed hands more than once – there is simply nowhere to take up defense there, and under heavy artillery fire, the forces holding them retreat.
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Donetsk Direction: Liberation of Nevelskoye
Situation as of the end of August 10, 2024
Although the main focus is now on the fighting on the border, the offensive of Russian troops in the Donbas continues, including in the Donetsk direction.
▪️Last night, footage appeared of soldiers from the 110th Motorized Rifle Brigade raising the Russian flag on the western outskirts of Nevelskoye. After years of fighting, it has been reduced to ruins, and numerous assaults have led to personnel and equipment losses.
The Russian Ministry of Defense had previously reported establishing control over the long-suffering village, but the information was not confirmed. With the appearance of new objective evidence, we can say that the years-long battle for the settlement has ended.
▪️At the same time, Russian Armed Forces units continue to advance in Krasnohorivka and have made progress on the outskirts, occupying houses on Engels and Sedov Streets. Most of the city has been liberated, but there are still battles ahead for the Lenin Collective Farm neighborhood.
▪️Russian troops also continue to attack in Maksymilianivka from the previously captured Heorhiivka, although no changes in the line of contact configuration have been recorded there in the last few days.
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On dangerous illusions about the offensive capabilities of the AFU
As the situation in the Kursk Region becomes relatively stabilized, there may be an impression that the offensive potential of the AFU in this direction has dried up, and it will not be too difficult to dislodge them from the captured border settlements.
However, this is erroneous and quite dangerous. Moreover, there is a certain set of characteristic signs that indirectly indicate that the main strike of the Ukrainian formations is still ahead.
▪️The concentrations of enemy forces near the Russian border have not gone anywhere, and the probability of a new offensive remains. Moreover, relatively large troop movements have been noticed in the Ukrainian rear, usually observed during the formation of groupings.
▪️The promised debut of the transferred American F-16 fighters has not yet taken place, and it is highly likely that the Ukrainian command is saving them not just like that. The version is supported by the fact that the Kyiv regime recently made large purchases of aviation fuel with delivery specifically in September.
▪️During past major offensives, the AFU always delivered two strikes: in 2022 in the Kherson and Kharkiv directions, and in 2023 in the Artemivsk and Zaporizhia directions. Therefore, it is not excluded that the enemy will try to attack again, taking advantage of the redeployment of Russian Armed Forces reinforcements from other sectors.
From a military point of view, such plans may raise questions. However, if we very carefully assume that the Kyiv regime really wants to reach negotiations by the end of the year under the pressure of its Western sponsors, then it clearly needs some trump cards for this.
The capture of the territories of the “old” Russian regions fits perfectly into this logic, as well as attempts at landings (https://t.me/rybar/62603) on Kinburn and Tendra Spit to create a threat to communications in Crimea. This is exactly what the Ukrainian formations are currently undertaking.
❗️Therefore, it is too early to relax. Yes, the AFU are no longer what they were in 2022, but the enemy has not yet lost its offensive capabilities.
Overconfidence and hasty conclusions that there is no one to fight in the so-called Ukraine lead to sad consequences like those we observed in the border area a few days ago.
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RUSSIA STRIKES BACK IN KURSK; Pokrovsk sector updates… | Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report
Belarus – Ukraine heating up | Akhmat in Kursk [10 August 2024]
Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/08/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_10.html
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