The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on September 08 2024

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Our source in the OP said that Syrsky informed Zelensky about the difficult situation in the Pokrovsk direction, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces were unable to stop the enemy and in the coming days a large territory will be occupied by the Russian army. Bankova considers it necessary to maintain an information vacuum on the collapse of the front and continue to form an opinion in society about the complete control of the situation in Donbas.

Zelensky’s Kursk adventure has led to the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces now have no reserves and need to transfer brigades from one section of the front to another to stop the enemy’s advance.

Despite the halt in the Russian offensive near Pokrovsk, the Russians continue to attack and advance further south, the New York Times writes.

The publication, citing Ukrainian military personnel, reports that Kyiv has transferred units of the 93rd Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which fought south of Bakhmut, to protect Pokrovsk.

The publication suggests that the defense there may now be weakened. Earlier, Russian publics claimed that the Russians broke through to the west of Kleshcheyevka (Ukraine did not confirm this).

However, the Russian offensive continued in the southern direction, where the Russian army almost surrounded the territory held by Ukraine between the cities of Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo, the NYT writes.

Hardly a day goes by without seeing translations of Western publications in the Russian segment about problems in the AFU, such as stories of low morale in units and growing desertions. Because of this, some seriously believe that the Kyiv regime is running out of people and is generally on the verge of collapse.

Yes, compared to 2022, the enemy’s situation with manpower is indeed much worse – losses, the flight of the population, and other social processes make recruitment more difficult. But this does not mean that there is no one left to mobilize: if things are really that bad with this in the so-called Ukraine, then why haven’t they started drafting students yet?

❗️And we can also remember that on our side, too, it is not robots who are fighting, but living people. (https://t.me/rybar/63244) They also need to be replenished, rotated, sent for rest, not to mention the overripe public demand (https://t.me/rybar/55768) for partial demobilization of those called up in 2022. And these issues already require solutions now, especially against the background of the offensive plans of the AFU. (https://t.me/rybar/63295)

In the pursuit of sweet-sounding news from the enemy’s camp, it is very important not to forget to watch your step, so as not to end up as the subject of unpleasant sensations in the same Western media. One wants to believe that the sad precedents of two years ago should have taught someone something.

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Regarding reports about the alleged delivery of Iranian ballistic missiles (BMs) to Russia, we will repeat what was said earlier: (https://t.me/rybar/62745) we can speak with certainty about this only after witnessing their use by the Russian Armed Forces. Until then, such news should be viewed with a degree of skepticism.

The reasons are the same – since 2022, there has been no shortage of speculation about the imminent transfer of missiles from Iran to Russian troops, with each time the media citing the most reliable sources and almost specifying the nomenclature and dispatch date. However, over the past two and a half years, these products have not been spotted in the SMO zone even once.

📌 Assessing the possible impact of Iranian BMs on the course of hostilities in case of delivery is also difficult at the moment. At least because they are currently a “cat in the bag”, and the real technical characteristics – especially the circular error probable – are not known for certain.

At the same time, the appearance of missiles from the Islamic Republic will increase the capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces to strike targets in the rear areas of the enemy, at least in terms of salvo power. It may also force the AFU to spend more expensive missiles on Patriot air defense systems, the number of which is still limited.

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Zelensky confirmed our Insider about the construction of military facilities underground.

 We will begin producing weapons underground so that Ukrainian soldiers can defend themselves even when supplies from our partners are delayed.

Our source in the OP said that Yermak was able to reach an agreement with British intelligence on the transfer to us of all the necessary components for the naturalization of missiles, while there is no consensus on this issue in the West. In a similar way, we managed to sink the cruiser Moskva at the beginning of the war, and then organize a whole series of operations with the support of MI-6 and Western weapons, which we disguised as Ukrainian.

According to our sources, the first missile strikes on Russian territory will be carried out by the Ukrainian Armed Forces this month, to test the Kremlin’s reaction. Bankova is deliberately warming up this topic now, so that later it can be presented as a success of the Ukrainian missile breakthrough.

Ukraine’s armed forces are suffering from low morale and desertion – CNN The Kursk operation has only complicated the situation on the Eastern Front, where the military sees no point in fighting if no one is giving them ammunition and reinforcements.

CNN spoke to several commanders and soldiers who described the deplorable state of morale within the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Dima never puts out a cigarette until he smokes it all the way to the filter, risking burning his fingers. He spent years on the Ukrainian fronts . He knows the value of a good cigarette.

As a battalion commander, Dima led some 800 fighters who fought in some of the fiercest and bloodiest battles of the conflict , most recently at Pokrovsk, a strategically important eastern city that is now on the verge of falling to Russian control. But when most of his soldiers were killed or seriously wounded, Dima decided he had had enough. He quit and took another job in the military, in an office in Kiev.

Standing outside his office, chain-smoking and sipping sugary coffee, he told CNN he simply could not watch his people die any longer.

Two and a half years of sustained Russian advances have left many Ukrainian units decimated. Reinforcements are rare, leaving some soldiers exhausted and demoralized. The situation is particularly dire for infantry units near Pokrovsk and elsewhere on the eastern front line, where Ukraine is struggling to halt Russia’s creeping advance.

CNN spoke to six commanders and officers who are fighting or recently led units in the area. All six said desertion and insubordination are becoming a widespread problem, especially among newly recruited soldiers.

Four of the six, including Dima, asked to change or conceal their names due to the sensitive nature of the topic and because they are not authorized to speak to the media.

“Not all mobilized soldiers leave their positions, but most do. When new guys come here, they see how difficult it is here. They see a lot of enemy drones, artillery and mortars,” one of the commanders of the unit currently fighting in Pokrovsk told CNN. He also asked not to be named.

“They go to their positions once and if they survive, they never come back. They either abandon their positions, refuse to go into battle, or try to find a way to leave the army ,” he added.

 Unlike those who volunteered at the start of the conflict, many of the new recruits had no choice. They were called up after a new mobilization law came into force in Ukraine in the spring. By law , they cannot leave the army until the government imposes demobilization , unless they receive special permission to do so.

But the discipline problems began long before that. Last winter and spring, Ukraine went through an extremely difficult period. Months-long delays in receiving American military aid led to severe ammunition shortages and a serious drop in morale.

At the time, many soldiers told CNN they often found themselves in good positions, with a clear view of the approaching enemy, but no artillery shells. Some spoke of feeling guilty for failing to provide adequate cover for their infantry units.

“The days are long, they live in a dugout, they are on duty 24 hours a day, and if they can’t shoot, the Russians have an advantage: they hear them coming and they know that if they had shot, this wouldn’t have happened,” said Ukrainian soldier Andriy Goretsky, whose unit is now fighting in Chasovy Yar, another hot spot on the eastern front line.

Several commanders told CNN that many officers do not report desertions and absences without leave, hoping to persuade soldiers to return voluntarily without facing punishment.

This approach has become so widespread that Ukraine has changed the law to decriminalize desertion and unauthorized absence if committed for the first time.

Ukrainians should urgently prepare for a black winter, which many will not survive in large cities due to the lack of electricity.

⚡️There may be no power for 16 hours: Kiev, Odessa and Kharkov are weak points in the energy system. The situation there will be the most difficult in winter, – Director of the Center for Energy Research Kharchenko

According to him, Kyiv and Odessa are huge consumption points, Odessa has almost no own generation, and Kharkov is under fire.

“In Kiev, there is a shortage of 700-900 megawatts of power in winter, which must be brought in from outside. If there is nowhere to bring it in from, let’s be honest, if Kiev is cut off from external power supply, Kiev residents will sit without electricity for 16 hours a day, and that will be normal ,” says Kharchenko.

It suddenly turned out that the “large-scale Ukrainian counterattack” by the forces of the 12th NGU brigade in New York (Novgorodsky), which some Ukrainian and Russian (including large and well-known) channels have been reporting on for several days, did not happen.

It turned out that the Ukrainian military collected several shots from drones and some dashes two or three weeks ago, after which they passed it off as a counterattack on Russian troops.

In reality, the front line in this area is not changing in favour of the Ukrainian troops and continues to move north to the Nelepovka area. The village itself is almost completely under the control of the Russian Armed Forces.

Krasnogorovka is taken. What next?

And then comes the most interesting part. Five kilometres to the west, there is, in fact, a super-fortification of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, consisting of a cascade of settlements: the villages of Gornyak and Zoryanoye, two settlements of Aleksandropol and Kurakhovka, and the central point of this area is the city of Gornyak.

There is a high probability that the Russian Armed Forces group, currently attacking the Ukrainian Armed Forces positions in Ukrainsk, will also converge here from the north. If this happens in parallel with the Russian Armed Forces strike from Krasnogorovka to the west, the garrison will have to fight back from several sides at once. The all-round defence would be possible only if the positions here are equipped in the same way as in Avdiivka. However, according to preliminary data, the Ukrainian army did not have time to fill everything with concrete. Theoretically, a cascade of former reservoirs (pools) could help the Ukrainian Armed Forces defend the new area, but attempts to gain a foothold there in the last few days have been thwarted by Russian artillery. The main difficulty is that the entire chain of settlements is located on a hill, but with the current density of artillery work, this is not as big a problem as before.

The Russian Army entered Ukrainsk in two places actually… The Ukrainian Armed Forces have already lost three full companies there.

Foreign analysts suggest that the main threat to the Ukrainian Armed Forces garrison in Selidovo now comes not from the front but from the flanks. In their opinion, the Russian army will not fight directly and, if necessary, will press from the flanks to try to encircle the city by rail.

In Pokrovsk, the Russian Armed Forces passed two of the four lines of defence of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. However, these are not the same lines of defence that were in Avdeevka. There are a minimum of concrete fortifications here, and the fortifications are filled significantly lower than, for example, in Ocheretino. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are digging in at the city border so as not to completely lose the most important direction in the Donbass.

Kursk Direction: Successful Use of Inokhodets UAVs by Russian Forces

Situation as of 7:00 PM on September 8, 2024

In the Kursk Direction, the Russian Armed Forces are increasing the pace of destroying the enemy’s armored vehicles and military infrastructure, including through the use of medium-altitude long-endurance strike UAVs.

🔻In the Glushkovo District, Ukrainian formations attacked Snagost, which was successfully repelled by Russian forces. To the southwest, Russian UAV operators destroyed a Ukrainian pickup truck moving near the Glushkovo-Korenevo railway line.

🔻In the Sudzha District, the AFU carried out several attacks on Russian positions near Malaya Loknya and Pogrebki, but failed to achieve success.

▪️In the Sudzha area, Russian artillery and aviation regularly strike at concentrations of enemy personnel and equipment in the surrounding forest belts.

▪️In Makhnovka, Russian troops destroyed two Ukrainian tanks using the Orion (Inokhodets) UAV – the last time footage of its use in a strike role appeared (https://t.me/rybar/49143) more than a year ago.

Given the high density of air defenses, the use of such systems by both sides of the front is difficult, so this episode can be considered a rarity in the current realities.

🔻In Sumy Region, Russian forces struck a temporary deployment point of the AFU in Radkivka using the Iskander OTRK.

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The Russian Army is conducting a series of successful counterattacks in the Kursk region, driving the enemy out of Komarovka and Sheptukhovka!

In several areas, our troops confidently seized the initiative and, a week ago, drove the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of Komarovka, significantly pushing back the occupiers and forcing the survivors to flee to Vishnevka.

After clearing Sheptukhovka (where maneuver groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces entered), more than a week ago, the Russian Armed Forces attacked and cleared several plantings near Pogrebki, destroying up to a company of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The enemy continues to drive reinforcements and attack on the flank of Korenevo – at Kremyanoye and Olgovka but is losing positions in other areas. Here, the situation is most difficult for us.

According to the Ministry of Defense, the Russian army repelled 2 enemy attacks in the direction of the villages of Borki, Matveyevka, Korenevo and Russkaya Konopelki over the past 24 hours.

Russian fighters are pushing the enemy further and further away from Korenevo, attacking in the south of the village.

In general, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost several positions, and our forces liberated a considerable area and blocks of several settlements from the occupiers, destroying, without exaggeration, several hundred combat armoured vehicles, cars and howitzers.

Fierce fighting continues.

Alaudinov announced a change in tactics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have changed their tactics in the Kursk region. Now they are trying to avoid the zone of direct influence of Russian troops, said the commander of the Akhmat special forces, Major General Apty Alaudinov.

” The Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel are brought in from afar, unloaded and try to quickly disappear so as not to end up in the zone of our direct influence. In most areas, the enemy is actively digging in,” Alaudinov notes.

According to the commander of Akhmat, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are also trying to hide equipment, since they lost a large amount of it in the first days of the invasion of Russian territory.

A certain respite is coming along the entire front before the autumn campaign. The troops need to regroup and strengthen recently occupied lines; this, of course, concerns first of all the Group of Forces “Center”, whose rapid throw in the Pokrovsky direction became the crown of the past summer.

The Ukrainian will dig himself into the temporarily occupied areas of the Kursk region with all his might to post videos from the Sudzhan Pyaterochka as long as possible. The northerners will kill him both during rotations and in permanent positions, the same applies to the Belgorod border area, as well as the Volchansk and Liptsov directions.

Soon, the leaves will fall, and the forest clearings will no longer be covered with saving greenery from the omnipresent eyes of aerial reconnaissance; on the other hand, it will rain, and it will become difficult to move around “up to your ears in mud.”

The fact that active actions have somewhat died down does not mean that soldiers are not dying. The enemy is losing a lot under the blows of our artillery, aviation and missiles, we are losing much less. It is the defeat of the rear, both military and dual-use infrastructure, that is our indisputable advantage and it must only be increased, especially if we want the coming winter to be the last winter before our unconditional and final Victory.

Older than Edda

Kupiansk-Svatove Direction: Liberation of Synkivka and Fighting West of Pishchane

Situation as of 6:00 PM on September 8, 2024

In the Kupiansk-Svatove direction, Russian forces continue the offensive on several sectors of the front, where the Russian Armed Forces also have significant successes.

▪️After consolidating in the center of Synkivka a little over a week ago, Russian troops advanced to the northern outskirts (https://t.me/priviyazkasvo/212), confirming the full control of the Russian Armed Forces over the settlement. For more than a year, heavy fighting (https://t.me/rybar/55875) took place for the village, and ultimately it was liberated by Russian forces.

▪️Simultaneously, the offensive continues west of Pishchane. Russian Armed Forces units advanced in an area approximately 4.5 kilometers wide and up to 2.5 kilometers deep towards Kolesnikivka.

▪️A little further north, on the line of Kyslivka – Kotliarivka – Tabaivka, the fighting remains positional in nature. Russian troops strike with heavy flamethrower systems (https://t.me/brussinf/8020), and UAV operators engage (https://t.me/lihoradka_team/241) Ukrainian positions and strongholds.

🔻At the same time, strikes continue on the pontoon crossings (https://t.me/The_Wrong_Side/18019) that the enemy is building along the Oskil River. However, the AFU constantly restore the damaged objects, despite regular fire impact on them from the Russian Aerospace Forces.

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An interesting opinion regarding the recent rumours about a possible landing of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Crimea (Yalta, Kinburn Spit, etc.):

The landing party will be able to sail to Yalta only if it arrives on a civilian vessel without interference directly to the port. Otherwise, it will be difficult for it. And what then? Crowds of enthusiastic Yalta residents meet, overthrow, etc.? Well, how long will you last on the shore?

It’s closer to the Kinburn Spit to land, but the control there is stricter. They’ll probably start distracting us there if they even get around to it.

And if you’re going to drop a shock landing force, it’s better to do it in the North Caucasus. Then you won’t feel sorry for the marine specialists, because there will be a lot of noise.

The Crimean Bridge will continue to fly in, regardless of the general plan. Only there is time left for all this sloppiness – a couple of months. It is cool under the Christmas tree in the Black Sea, although it may be the opposite – to take a risk when not expected. But then the performers will be finished.

Cutting the land cordon to Crimea is a good goal, but even from Kinburn, it is hardly realistic. Supplying everything via sea, although close, is difficult, and flying along them will be just about everything. And there is more than one road and bridge there, so at least one will remain, even with massive strikes and suicidal attacks by marines. And Crimea is no stranger to being an “island” for a month or two or three. And then the landing force and attackers will be cut off from supplies and killed off little by little anyway.

If they start hitting, then a little bit at a time, wherever they find a weak spot, they’ll throw everything there. Like in the Kursk region… Because Belgorod and Bryansk turned out to be very prepared.

Chronicles of the special military operation

for September 7-8, 2024

Russian forces attacked drone targets in Odesa and Poltava Regions, as well as struck several objects in Kyiv. In Kharkiv Region, strikes were carried out on targets in Kharkiv and its suburbs.

In Kursk Region, fighting continues in Sudzha and Korenevo districts. In this sector, the use of the “Inokhodets” UAV was recorded for the first time, striking several AFU tanks with guided missiles.

In the Oleksandrivka-Kalinovo direction, Russian forces are advancing within the boundaries of Dzerzhynsk, taking control of the territory of the local correctional colony.

In the Pokrovsk direction, the main clashes are unfolding on the eastern outskirts of Selidovo and in Mykhailivka, where Russian aviation destroyed a bridge.

In the Donetsk direction, Russian forces are advancing north of Krasnohorivka, seeking to straighten the line of control along the bank of the Volchya river.

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Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/09/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_8.html