The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on September 26 2024

Putin issues a nuclear warning to the West over Ukraine

Weatherman Evgeny Tishkovets delivers a nuclear forecast

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Trump says ‘Ukraine is dead’ as he lashes out at ‘nasty’ Zelensky

Putin is once again raising the stakes and doing so at a time when Zelensky is trying to get permission from the United States to strike Western missiles deep into Russia. Of course, the hawks will say that all of these are threats and that we have crossed red lines many times, but that is what bargaining is for, that a warning strike will have to be launched, but where and at whom…

Putin said that Russia’s new nuclear strategy will include the possibility of using nuclear weapons in the event of “aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear state. It is proposed to consider such a case as their joint attack on the Russian Federation.”

Note that the war in Ukraine may also fall under this definition. Earlier, Putin said that permission to strike Western long-range missiles at the Russian Federation would mean the participation of NATO countries in a war against Russia.

Putin’s full quote is as follows: “It has been proposed to make a number of clarifications regarding the definition of the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons. Thus, the draft of the Fundamentals has expanded the category of states and military alliances against which nuclear deterrence is carried out. The list of military threats for the neutralization of which nuclear deterrence measures are carried out has been supplemented. What else I would like to draw your attention to is that in the updated version of the document, aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear state, is proposed to be considered as their joint attack on the Russian Federation.” Well, and separately raised the stakes on the plan to pump up with weapons, the signal is obvious…

Putin said that a critical threat to Russia’s sovereignty created by conventional weapons will become the basis for a nuclear response.

He also said that reliable information about the launch of air and space attack weapons, as well as UAVs, towards the Russian Federation “will entail a nuclear response.”

In addition, according to Putin, the Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against Belarus. 

The event that was expected

The Russian President outlined approaches to the new edition of the Fundamentals of State Policy in the Sphere of Nuclear Deterrence. The main changes are as follows.

1. Aggression against Russia by a state that does not possess nuclear weapons, but with the support or participation of a country with nuclear weapons, will be considered a joint attack. Everyone understands which countries we are talking about.

2. Equivalent nuclear protection will be established for Belarus as our closest ally. To the “delight” of Poland and numerous NATO pygmies.

3. A massive launch and crossing of our border by enemy air and space weapons, including aircraft, missiles and UAVs, under certain conditions may become grounds for the use of nuclear weapons. A reason to think not only for the rotten neo-Nazi regime, but also for all of Russia’s enemies who are pushing the world toward a nuclear catastrophe.

It is clear that each situation that gives grounds to resort to nuclear protection must be assessed in conjunction with other factors, and the decision to use nuclear weapons will be made by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. However, the very change in the regulatory conditions for the use of the nuclear component by our country can cool the ardor of those opponents who have not yet lost their sense of self-preservation. Well, for the thick-headed, only the Roman maxim will remain: caelo tonantem credidimus Jovem Regnare …

Dmitry Medvedev 

Regarding the topic of authorizing NATO long-range weapons strikes deep into Russian territory…

Not so long ago we have seen an epic story about the possible authorization of NATO long-range weapon strikes on Russian territory. The West has not yet announced a final decision, but the Kiev regime and its particularly aggressive “partners” from among the midget countries strongly recommend allowing the U.S. and the U.K. to carry out such strikes.

If limited to the framework of the NWO, it may seem that such a decision is worthless for the U.S., but if we look more broadly, it could hit Washington hard and lead the world to World War III.

What are the implications for the West?

It would lead to unprecedented escalation, which is what Russia is warning about. It will force the US to intervene in the conflict in Ukraine to the fullest and deploy significant resources, weakening support for Israel and Taiwan.

 - Washington fears that if the confrontation with Moscow escalates, Tehran and Beijing will certainly take advantage of this by threatening vital U.S. interests, namely attacking Israel and Taiwan.

 - The existing reality is that a proxy war on 3 fronts will not be tolerated by the US under any circumstances and it is looking for ways to avoid it. 

Thus, an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine could set off a chain of events that will certainly lead to a global conflict where the US could lose everything that ensures its hegemony. Namely, Middle East oil and the high-tech manufacturing base in Taiwan.

Translation of the phrase into Russian: “When thunder rumbled in the sky, we believed in Jupiter ruling.”

Our source reports that the Ukrainian crisis is now at its most important crossroads for the third time . Almost the same as it was in January-February 2022, when it was still possible to save the situation and implement the Minsk agreements through the Normandy format, and as it was in the spring of 2022 in Istanbul, where it was possible to stop the war, deaths and destruction.

Now history is repeating itself again.

Two paths of development:

1. The situation is moving towards a peace case and Biden is forcing Zelensky to make peace according to the “Korean scenario”. Taking away Trump’s main trump card in the election race. He himself is packing everything up, as Ukraine remained, Putin’s plan failed and NATO became stronger. He already said something similar speaking at the UN.

2. The war flares up with renewed vigor. Kyiv receives new credit lines and weapons. We are on the threshold of nuclear strikes (TNW) on Ukraine. People are fleeing the country en masse, etc.

The most extensive behind-the-scenes negotiations in the last year and a half are currently underway.

The Biden administration is concerned that the Ukrainian leader’s plan for winning the war against Russia lacks a comprehensive strategy and is little more than a repackaged request for more weapons and the lifting of restrictions on long-range missiles, US officials said. 

For months, Zelensky billed the plan as a framework to defeat Russia, and he is set to brief Biden on the specifics Thursday during a high-profile meeting, the first time the Biden administration will get to hear the framework in its entirety. 

But senior US and EU officials knowledgeable of the broad outlines of the plan say it offers no clear path to a Ukraine victory, particularly as Russian forces make slow but steady gains on the battlefield.

“I’m unimpressed, there’s not much new there,” one of the senior officials said.

Everyone already understands that Zelensky’s winning plan has become another failure of the President’s Office on the international track; everyone understood the US reaction perfectly well, but they packed the drafts into one document.

A brief summary of Zelepsky’s trip to the US can be drawn now, without leaking information from the Ukrainian delegation: we will fight to the last Ukrainian, NATO will not accept us, we will be given money on credit for existence, missile strikes will not be allowed.

nabludatels

Zelensky lost bipartisan support in one senseless trip to the US, which demonstrates the President’s Office’s complete lack of understanding of political processes in the international arena. Only at Bankova they decided not to stop and kicked Trump, who quickly reflected and made Zelensky a participant in the Democratic election campaign , while criticizing the President of Ukraine for refusing to make peace.

It is already clear that this is a strategic defeat for the Office of the President, which could become fatal for Ukraine if Trump wins.

Our source reports that Zelensky has finally chosen his side in the US elections – Harris, as she will probably continue the war and financing of Ukraine. We got inside information about this. At the same time, Zelensky is publicly “sinking” against Trump. By the way, he promised Biden backstage support back in 2023 in exchange for a new military loan.

This has already brought its negative consequences. Ukraine has finally lost the support of a large part of the Republican Party. Kyiv has begun to be accused of our functionaries interfering in the US elections.

Let us recall that after Zelensky’s telephone conversation with Trump, we received inside information that he passed formally, and Trump continues to consider Zelensky a “Democratic lapdog.”

If Harris loses, Zelensky will not just face a political end, but rather a historical one. Criminal cases for embezzlement of military aid, etc., will pour in from everywhere and in all cases.

Our source in the OP said that Zelensky prohibited the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Ugledar while he is in the US, Syrsky was asked to maintain the situation and throw reserves into the battle. For the Presidential Office, it is now important to maintain the appearance of stability on the eastern front so that partners do not put pressure on Zelensky on a peaceful track.

Zelensky’s Kursk adventure has caused a shortage of reserves on the Eastern Front, but at the same time the President’s Office prohibits the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Ugledar, which is in operational encirclement. Who will take on the loss of the fortress city and when will Bankova begin to see the situation not in terms of PR, but strategic planning – this is a rhetorical question.

the_military_analytics

People are gone

A serviceman of the 56th separate separate brigade, Sergei Gnezdilov, who left his place of service, commented on the situation in the brigade:

“They tell me that I betrayed my unit. Who did I betray? I have no people in my unit, they ran out because the brigade did not have rotations – my commander, me and two people under my command remained.

“They tell me that it is because of me that the front will collapse, and not because of those who have failed and are failing the mobilization. I appeal to the state’s ability to defend itself in the long term. If it cannot mobilize as many people as it needs to defend itself, then there will be no state.”

This is a wake-up call. The military can no longer live without rotation.

The situation, when one can leave the front either crippled or feet first, has led to people publicly going to the SZCh.

Listen to the opinion of the military that there are no reserves on the Eastern Front, but at the same time Syrsky started the Kursk adventure, which is already costing us more than the 2023 counteroffensive.

The Russian Armed Forces may reach the borders of the Donetsk region if the leadership does not take action in the near future, – an officer of the 68th brigade on the situation in the Pokrovsk and Ugledarsk direction

“In Donbas, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are critically short of soldiers and ammunition… The enemy has a hundredfold advantage in ammunition, people, and drones,” the military man reports.

If we take into account the fact that we were specially replaced in Kursk and this is a gambit, then it turns out that Zelensky gave up Donbas for a senseless operation.

Our source reported that Zelensky demanded that Syrsky hold Ugledar even if the Ukrainian Armed Forces are surrounded; they will not give the order to retreat .

The loss of Ugledar is a matter of days or weeks, said Deep State co-founder Ruslan Mikula.

In his opinion, in order to hold the city further, it is necessary to “cut off the pincers” on the flanks. But there are no resources for this. At the same time, the fighters receive orders for a counteroffensive.

He believes that the threat of encirclement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Ugledar is high and admits that a timely command to retreat will not be given.

“The fighters are trying to hold on, even combat orders are being sent to restore positions, which is absolutely impossible in the current conditions. Those who send them to the guys, I don’t know what they are thinking,” Mikula said.

Major General Apty Alaudinov, commander of the Akhmat special forces, on Zelensky’s surrender: 

   The enemy is in a very difficult condition in several areas. And we see that he is slowly beginning to abandon positions, to withdraw where he can. I think that if things continue in the same way, the overdue one, who went to America in order to crawl on his knees before his masters again, no matter how much good they gave him, will eventually find himself faced with the choice that he has to sign an unconditional surrender.

The loss of territories and, most importantly, resources of Donbass and Zaporozhye continues. At the same time, the ability to maneuver reserves has been reduced to almost zero. Moreover, the Nevel cauldron is being formed in the Pokrovsk direction, which can provoke the collapse of the entire defense in Donbass.

It is noteworthy that some Ukrainian Armed Forces commanders and many soldiers see the current situation in the east of the country as the costs of Zelensky’s Kursk adventure.

“Kursk was a good idea, it showed Russia as weaker than many thought. But we are paying for it [with a lot of our own land],” a commander of one of the units of the Ukrainian ground forces told the Financial Times.

Also, according to the Ukrainian military, Russian troops have learned from previous mistakes. They avoided large-scale attacks with tanks and armored vehicles. As a result, the new tactics of the Russian Armed Forces led to success in the Donetsk region – small groups of Russians are difficult to hit not only with shells, but also with drones. Also, the Ukrainian Armed Forces can do little against Russian attack helicopters and aircraft carrying gliding bombs. Especially near Vuhledar, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces have no air defense.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian society is beginning to prepare for new territorial losses. Thus, military expert Konstantin Mashovets stated that Ukrainians should “morally and psychologically” prepare for the retreat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Selidovo, Toretsk and Ugledar. “From the information that I have, this is a very likely scenario for the development of events in the near future,” the expert notes.

Deep State co-founder Ruslan Mikula confirmed our insider information, stating that

 ”The fighters are trying to hold Ugledar, there are even combat orders flying to restore positions and counterattack, which is absolutely impossible in the current conditions. Those who send them to the guys, I don’t know what they are thinking.”

In his opinion, in order to hold the city further, it is necessary to “cut off the pincers” on the flanks. But there are no resources for this.

He believes that the threat of encirclement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Ugledar is high and admits that a timely command to retreat will not be given.

The risk of units ending up in the Ugledar cauldron is 78%, since the roads into/out of the city are already completely under enemy fire.

Ugledar

The few remaining dirt roads along the fields to the north are under fire control of the Russian Armed Forces. The Ukrainians are now trapped in Ugledar. The 58th Brigade has lost its combat capability. The 72nd has suffered losses but is still fighting.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have three options in the city:

1. Surrender with the hope of “extraction”.

2. Try to break through to Bogoyavlenka with heavy losses.

3. To die with meaningless glory

At this moment Russian army is holding around 1/4 of the city itself.

According to sources from the ground, there are pockets of resistance, but fewer. The majority of them have been annulled by the FABs and Solntsepeki.

There are many dead and wounded Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers on the streets and in the houses. They are not being evacuated. There is no more interception evacuation from Ugledar. As well as rotations.

To understand the general picture of Ugledar. Here, along these bare fields, you can still go out if you are lucky. They are under fire control by the Russian army.  If 72nd wants out, it would need to go either with full force, and who survives breakthrough, survives, or to go peace meal with the same chances. The 58th brigade of the AFU is being almost overrun, and maybe only individuals will get out the same way if they survive the fighting in the city, that is. The same goes 

An AFU officer has spoken about the critical situation in Donbas, where the Russian army is advancing on Pokrovsk and Ugledar.

 - “If our leadership does not take measures in the near future, does not bring reserves to these directions, everything will be very sad, because the enemy has an advantage hundreds of times both in terms of ammunition, and people, and drones,” said an officer of the control staff of the 3rd battalion of the 68 Separate Yeager Brigade “Boxer” who is in the Pokrovsk direction.

 - The AFU in Donbass is critically short of men and ammunition. He believes that if the situation with reserves does not change, Russian troops may come to the borders of the DPR.

“Northerners” burned NATO “Vampire” that attacked Belgorod from Kharkov

▪️Reconnaissance forces of the North group of forces have identified the movement and firing of the Czech Vampire multiple launch rocket system of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from near Kharkov.

▪️As a result of the high-precision strike, the Vampire in the hangar and the ammunition depot for it were destroyed along with the militants.

Kursk Direction: Local Battles, AFU Buildup in Sumy Region

Situation as of the end of September 26, 2024

The situation in Kursk Region remains tense, with ongoing battles in various sectors.

🔻Ukrainian formations are attacking in the area of Veseloye in Glushkovo District. And in the vicinity of Novy Put, there are signs of personnel buildup for a further offensive towards Glushkovo.

🔻In Korenevo District, the Russian Aerospace Forces are active, with no changes in control zones observed. However, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, Ukrainian formations attempted to counterattack in the Lyubimovka area, but without success. The enemy, in turn, claims its own successes near Olhovka, but this is not confirmed by objective control footage.

🔻Meanwhile, in Sudzha District, the enemy is redeploying forces to the vicinity of Plekhovo, where battles are ongoing in the forests east, halfway to Borki. No attacks or changes in control zones are recorded, and on the adjacent territory of Sumy Region, the Russian Armed Forces continue to systematically suppress the artillery of Ukrainian formations.

rybar

Russian forces delivered another strike on the Starokostiantyniv airfield in the Khmilnytskyi Region – this time they fired no less than four aeroballistic Kinzhal missiles at the target.

The facility serves as one of the main basing locations for the American F-16 fighters that have been transferred. This is largely due to the presence of Soviet-era concrete aircraft shelters there, which provide better concealment and protection for the planes. It is precisely this that led to the use of Kinzhals to strike the target.

Despite reports of the destruction of several F-16s at Starokostiantyniv, the effectiveness of the raid can only be assessed after the appearance of satellite imagery and other evidence. After all, the loss of such assets is unlikely to go unnoticed in the local and Western media.

Nevertheless, the new strike on the airfield indicates a consistent effort to destroy at least the infrastructure for basing American fighters. The number of Soviet-era concrete shelters at Ukrainian airfields is limited, and as they are destroyed, it will become much more difficult to hide the F-16s.

rybar

In the morning, footage appeared of another strike on the Motor Sich plant in occupied Zaporizhia, which specializes in the production of aircraft engines. However, if previously the facility was hit mainly by Iskander ballistic missiles and Smerch MLRS, now it was struck by FAB bombs with JDAM guidance.

This may be a result of the appearance of new modifications of guided aerial bombs, photos of which were published (https://t.me/voenacher/71104) several weeks ago. And if earlier the JDAM-equipped munitions could not reach the industrial facilities of Zaporizhia, now their range is sufficient to strike such targets within the city limits.

📌 Regarding Motor Sich, the enterprise, despite its location in relative proximity to the front line, has not stopped its work since the start of the SMO and continues to ship engines for the Ukrainian Air Force.

Despite the rumors, there are no secret agreements or similar things involved here – the plant has repeatedly become a target of attacks. It was hit in 2022 (https://t.me/rybar/33145) and in 2023 (https://t.me/rybar/51694), and over the past six months, something (https://t.me/rybar/59112) and something (https://t.me/rybar/58919) has been hitting Motor Sich from time to time.

The thing is, to disable a huge production complex with solid workshops with single and not always extremely accurate strikes is, to put it mildly, very difficult. Therefore, the opponent has been patching the holes and continuing to work at Motor Sich.

The situation could be remedied by regular launches of dozens of aerial bombs and missiles at specific workshops with the goal of their sequential and successive destruction. But so far, in the choice of targets for mass attacks, Ukrainian military-industrial enterprises are not a priority for some reasons.

rybar

Chronicles of the special military operation

for September 26, 2024

Russian forces struck energy infrastructure in Ivano-Frankivsk, Odesa and Mykolaiv Regions, as well as for the third time in the last week hit the industrial zone of the “Motor Sich” enterprise in occupied Zaporizhia.

In the Artemivsk direction, Russian forces improved their tactical position on the western outskirts of Kalynivka.

In the Donetsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces consolidated their positions on the northern outskirts of Hirnyk near School No. 17.

In the South Donetsk direction, Russian assault teams are completing the encirclement of the Ukrainian garrison in Vuhledar.

In the Zaporizhia direction, the Russian Armed Forces captured an enemy strongpoint north of Nesteryanky during a battle.

rybar

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Fierce battles in Vuhledar | RF advance in the eastern part of the city [26 September 2024]

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Battlefield Ukraine Russian War Machine

Morning Summary on September 26, 2024

▪️ Overnight, there were five series of explosions in Kyiv and the region, with Klitschko reporting the work of air defenses. In addition, enemy monitoring channels wrote about explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk, Starokostiantyniv, Odesa, Cherkasy, Chernihiv and Vinnytsia regions. Preliminarily, the Russian Armed Forces used “Geran” drones.

▪️ In the Kursk Region, the “North” group of Russian troops reports advances in the Korenevo sector of the front, while the AFU is launching counterattacks. In the Glushkovo district, the enemy continues attempts to block the settlement of Veseloye.

▪️ In the Kharkiv Region – actions of both sides in the Volchansk and Liptsovo directions, fierce fighting continues in the settlement of Volchansk. There were no significant changes in the front line over the past day.

▪️ In the Pokrovsk direction – battles in the area of Tsukurino, Hornyak and Selidovo. The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the liberation of Ostroye, which now indicates the reliable consolidation of our troops there.

▪️ The offensive of our troops on Vuhledar is actively developing. They reported on our assault groups near the high-rise buildings, the enemy’s plantings to the northeast of Vuhledar are being burned out by drones with an incendiary mixture. The last roads out of the city have been taken under fire control by the Russian Armed Forces, there are no safe routes left for the AFU. Footage is circulating with new prisoner soldiers of the enemy from the direction and massive strikes (https://t.me/voin_dv/10985) on the urban development.

▪️ On the Zaporizhia front, the Russian Armed Forces advanced north of the settlement of Nesteryanка and routed a large enemy stronghold that had been holding out for a long time.

▪️ In the Kherson direction, the Russian Armed Forces are constantly striking at the enemy’s locations, using heavy aerial bombs to destroy fortified targets.

▪️ In the Bryansk Region, they reported the destruction of two enemy UAVs of the aircraft type overnight.

▪️ In the Belgorod Region, a UAV-kamikaze of the AFU attacked a GAZelle in the Ekaterenovka farm of the Volokonovsky district. The driver was injured. In Shebekino, a drone exploded in a commercial parking lot. Karabanov of the Valuisk municipal district, Konovalovo of the Volokonovsky district, Dobropolye, Smorodino, Bezymeno and Novostroyevka-Pervaya of the Grayvoronsky municipal district, Voznesenivka of the Shebekino city district were attacked.

▪️ In Horlivka, DPR, as a result of artillery strikes by the AFU with cluster munitions, three civilians were injured.

Two Majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/09/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_26.html