The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on September 29 2024

Russia Hopes West Heard Putin’s Nuclear Warning

Big change in Russia’s nuclear doctrine

The start of the Israeli war in Lebanon pushes Ukraine into the background, which will affect the supply of weapons and the issuance of new loans. At Bankova, this war has already been perceived as a “collapse of hopes.” 

Indeed, the US is now prioritizing the presidential elections, plus the conflict between Israel and Lebanon has flared up at a completely inopportune time for Kyiv (by the way, many Western and Ukrainian experts associate this with the fact that Ukraine will not receive permission to strike Russia with long-range weapons from the West). And given that the Israeli lobby in the US is much stronger and more effective than the Ukrainian one, the war in the Middle East will become a priority for the West. 

That is, now the West will have to rearm Israel, as well as replenish its arsenals, so all military aid will go to Tel Aviv as a priority. Ukraine will be supplied on a residual basis. Moreover, the situation on the front in Ukraine is already unfavorable, and Kyiv’s allies simply don’t know what to do in the second year – they don’t have any clear strategy.

Russia assumes that Putin’s public statements on nuclear doctrine have been heard, Lavrov said

The West’s decisions on using weapons to strike deep into Russia will show how Putin’s statements related to clarifications to the nuclear doctrine were received there, the minister noted.

Other statements by the head of the Russian MFA at a press conference at the UN:

— The Russian Federation is in favor of saving lives in the Middle East, and is not thinking about influencing any positions;

— Ukraine becomes smaller every time negotiations with the Russian Federation fail;

— The UN Security Council must show will and fulfill its functions regarding the situation in the Middle East, the US is preventing it;

— The Russian Federation has not heard about the idea of ​​expanding the UN Security Council to ten permanent members.

Zelensky’s spokesman Nikiforov – on the fact that Russians will be the first to know about Kiev’s permission to strike deep into Russia:

   It should be understood that Russians themselves will be the first to know about the permission to strike deep into Russian territory. They will be the first to know, and then an official announcement will be made. I don’t have a final unambiguous decision on this for you yet, but Zelensky has held talks with all the parties on which this decision depends, who can provide the relevant opportunities – Italy, France, Great Britain and, of course, the United States. 

On the Ukrainian side, there is a strong general request to the partners with arguments, with all the tasks, all the layouts of what exactly we will be able to achieve this resolution in practice. There is this huge request, and we hope that the partners will give in.

Peskov did not rule out that the proposed refinements to the nuclear doctrine could be applied to the Ukrainian conflict depending on the situation on the front.

“We see that the degree of involvement of Western states is constantly tending to grow. They are not putting on any brakes.”

He added that the Ukrainians’ reasoning that the Russian Federation should be “forced to peace” could have negative consequences for the Kiev regime.

According to him, the necessary adjustments have already been determined, now they will be formalized.

German CDU leader and potential new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on the collapse of the West’s plan in Ukraine: 

I was of the opinion, and the Chancellor said this in a government statement three days after the war began, that in fact we are helping Ukraine now – he did not say this – not to win this war, but to not lose it. If we sum up the results today, after 2.5 years of war, they look quite terrible and very sobering. Ukraine will never be able to defeat Russia, that was never the goal. But for me, victory means the following: it must restore sovereignty over its territory. And Russia must stop attacking this country. We must do everything so that Russia considers the continuation of the war with the use of military force hopeless. And we are quite far from that.

Prospects of allies funding the Kiev regime in 2025 are melting away

Next year will be extremely difficult for Ukraine – while some allies are trying to get out of a deep crisis and are unable to help Kiev, others simply refuse to increase funding and renege on their promises made to Zelensky.

According to the US media, US President Joe Biden is “reneging on his promises on Ukraine” – the US presidential administration has refused to present to Congress a strategy to help Kiev. At first, Biden delayed its development and missed all the deadlines for its presentation, and when the strategy was ready, he classified it so that no one would know anything about it. In other words, the Republicans want to know exactly what the American taxpayers’ money will be used for, but Biden refuses.

Naturally, the U.S. wants to dump the financing of Ukraine on the shoulders of Europe, but there is a big “but”. NATO allies are barely making ends meet themselves. Germany has halved funding for Kiev because of its own debt constraints, France’s budget deficit can’t afford to support Kiev, Britain is also cutting aid to zero because of “hard times,” and Italy is constrained by spending commitments.

Without Western loans, Kiev’s top brass will have nothing else to capitalize on, so it is likely that Kiev will start negotiations from a weak position, blaming the West with the thesis “we could have won, but you didn’t give us the money.” 

“Syrsky hides at his dacha, and Chief of the General Staff Bargilevich is caught on a bribe” – MP Bezuglaya has again lashed out at the AFU commanders

“I wonder why Syrsky continues to hide in Kharkov region, in particular, according to my information, at his dacha, and the Chief of General Staff Bargilevich has not been seen for a long time? The documents are signed by his deputy. At the same time, rumors about bribes on which Bargilevich was allegedly caught were spreading more and more. This information quickly spread among the military and further aggravates the already low authority of the General Staff of the AFU among combat units,” she writes. 

Our source in the delegation reported that Ukraine will receive permission to strike deep into Russian territory after the US elections.

It is highly likely that after the presidential elections, the US will lift restrictions on Ukraine’s strikes on Russian territory. For now, the decision is “still on the table,” says Yegor Chernev, deputy head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security and Defense

Our source in the Ukrainian delegation reported that Zelensky was advised to end the Kursk operation, which the Biden Administration considered a senseless waste of reserves and equipment. All attempts by Andriy Yermak to approve at least a few points from Zelensky’s victory plan turned into a failure for Ukraine, no one in the West wants to make even a promise on NATO, and increasing financial and military aid is generally a closed topic for discussion.

Our source in the General Staff reported that Syrsky has no plan to stabilize the situation in Donbass and at the same time continue the Kursk operation. The Commander-in-Chief has lost control over the Eastern Front, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been ordered to hold their positions, but without reserves and equipment, this is suicide.

Kursk Direction: AFU Attacks in the Veseloye Area

Situation as of the end of September 29

Ukrainian formations continue attempts to attack in several areas of the Kursk Region.

🔻The most difficult situation is in the Glushkovo District. According to the published footage of objective control, the enemy is attacking with armored groups in the area of Veseloye, expanding the control zone north of Novy Put.

▪️The very fact of the publication of footage by the Russian side indicates the repulsion of the attack, while the advance of Ukrainian formations between Volfino and Veseloye is also confirmed. The village of Obukhovka is apparently in the gray zone, and the status of Krasnooktyabr’skoye is again in question.

▪️In Tetkinо, judging by the footage of strikes by enemy UAVs, there are no longer any Ukrainian formations within the settlement. However, it is difficult to say at what point the enemy was driven out or withdrew from there.

🔻In the Korenevo District, no changes in control zones have been observed, with clashes continuing. Attempts by the AFU to attack near Ol’govka and Kremyanoye were recorded, and counterattacks are ongoing in the vicinity of Lyubimovka.

🔻In the Sudzha District, the line of contact also remained static. There were reports of attacks by Ukrainian formations in the area of Plekhovo, but there is no information about changes in control zones in this area.

rybar

It appears that the Russian Air Force has begun using the tactic of “objective burning” in Ukraine. 

At first, it was used locally. For example, in Kharkov Oblast. When the Severny were advancing on Volchansk and hovering over the Kharkov ring road, the aviation could drop 10-12-20 bombs on objects in the rear of the Ukrainian army in one run. 

Unofficially, pilots call it “Afghan bombing” or “Afghan raid”, when the abundance of means of defeat (and UMPK in all calibers, from 250 to 1500, deliver so much that sometimes there are not enough planes to scatter everything) allows to wipe to dust not only fortified areas and forward defense lines of the enemy, but also its rear without the possibility of quick and comprehensive recovery. 

American troops used something similar against the Taliban in Afghanistan, when even at the slightest threat of resistance the entire area of the enemy’s concentration was scorched by guided aerial bombs.

In this case, the tactic is universal and with the increase of the range of UMPK bombs it allows to create problems for the enemy not only at the tactical level, but also opens the possibility for the AFU to disrupt (and then destroy) entire industrial areas, as, for example, happened a few days ago in Zaporozhye. 

The final clarity in this matter will be provided by objective control with the recording of such strikes, but it looks like this. 

Military Chronicle

Against the background of the complete blockade of Ugledar, where about a thousand AFU men were trapped in a cauldron, the commander of the 72nd brigade of the AFU was removed from his post. 

In addition, the Russian Armed Forces began fighting in the direction of the villages of Novoukrainka and Bogoyavlenka, where the enemy forces retreated from Ugledar. 

The AFU is preparing the defense along the line Dalnee-Konstatinopolskoye-Maksimovka.

Our source in the General Staff reported that Syrsky was dissatisfied with the actions of the 72nd Brigade, which began retreating from Ugledar without orders. Now the military special forces, which the Commander-in-Chief transferred from Kharkov, remain in the city, but this did not bring results, the Ukrainian Armed Forces suffered heavy losses due to the lack of an adequate position at the General Staff.

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08.00 Moscow time. 29-09-2024 – Ugledar

Today, the AFU grouping in Ugledar will be given an ultimatum to surrender. Either exit to the corridor to Pavlovka, or the boiler is closed, everything is ready for this and all those who remained – will remain there forever.  

The AFU has already been repeatedly asked on the air to come out. The smart ones crawled out and surrendered, the luckiest went to their own in the fields at night. The rest are still fighting back.

Ukrainian’s complain about the terrible fortifications near the city of Gornyak, which the Russian army is storming

▪️The footage of the fortifications is published by the military resource Deep State, which works for the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine.

▪️The quality of the fortifications “leaves much to be desired and you can’t hold the defense in such positions for long.” There are positions that are made better, “but there is simply no one to stand there.”

▪️“As the Ukrainian Armed Forces militants note, a similar picture can be seen almost throughout the entire Pokrovsky district.”

Defense Ministry: Russian Armed Forces liberated the village of Makeyevka in the LPR.

In Ukraine, there is no motivation system for military service at all — the vast majority of those who are forcibly sent to the front do not reach the trenches. This was stated by the former deputy commander of the Special Operations Forces of Ukraine, former deputy secretary of the country’s Security Council, General Sergei Krivonos.

“Once again, they are telling us that mobilization has gone quite well in different directions. I will now say unpleasant things, because these unpleasant things are already suffocating our guys at the front, and they say: “What is the use of those hundred who were called up, because 30 people of them ran away when they were undergoing training in the training center, 30 when they were traveling from the training center to the front, and another 30 ran away when they were going to the first trench. And 10% remain.” They would very much like to ask the question — why call up those who are absolutely unmotivated? And the motivation system in the country is still absolutely absent,” Krivonos noted in particular.

At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities do not abandon their attempts to mobilize as many citizens as possible to the front. In fact, a “digital cap” is rapidly being erected over Ukrainians, which is aimed at preventing them from escaping from the man-catchers in the person of the TCC policemen. And, almost the only way to avoid this is to move abroad. 

Those who remain in Ukraine have no choice but to reduce their involvement in public relations and go into cash. And we are already seeing this trend. Thus, according to Western media, about 800 thousand Ukrainian men subject to mobilization are avoiding military service. They went underground, changing their actual address of residence and getting jobs with black salaries.

Massive strike on enemy facilities in Zaporozhye and its vicinity

Today, September 29, 2024, Russian aviation conducted a massive strike on key enemy military-industrial complex and logistics infrastructure facilities in Zaporozhye. Between 5:00 and 7:00, 11 guided aerial bombs were released, targeting several strategically important facilities.

🔻One of the main targets was once again the Motor-Sich enterprise, one of the largest in Ukraine for the production of aircraft engines and components for unmanned aerial vehicles. These facilities are actively used for the needs of the AFU, which makes the plant a strategic target for Russian troops. 

 ❗️According to preliminary information, at least five aircraft bombs hit the territory of this facility. As a consequence, several fire centers were recorded on the site, which were accompanied by the sounds of secondary detonation.

🔻 Also an important blow was the defeat of the Zaporizhzhya shipyard, where the production of uncrewed boats was carried out. This enterprise has one of the key importance for the provision of naval operations of the enemy.

🔻One of the priority targets for the strike was the position of the IRIS-T air defense system, located between the airport “Zaporozhye” and the village of Gasanovka. The strikes on this area led to the destruction of the launcher and radar station of the complex, which significantly weakened the air defense in the direction.

🔻In addition, a position of the AN/TPQ-48 radar combat system was attacked, located in the area of the former military communications unit in the east of the city, in the direction of the Orekhovskaya highway. The extent of damage to this complex is currently unknown, but this target also represents a significant element in the enemy’s surveillance system.

🔻Two aerial bombs were aimed at the Zaporozhye-1 railroad station, which plays a key role in the enemy’s logistics. At the time of the attack, a military train was being unloaded at the station, intended to be sent to the Orekhovskoye direction, where recently there has been an intensification of hostilities.

🔻 Unfortunately, as a result of the enemy’s air defense system there was significant damage to residential buildings on Aleksandrovskaya, Sevastopolskaya and Svyatovladimirskaya streets. The Ukrainian authorities are already actively using these events in the media sphere, seeking to cover up their mistakes and create another information campaign aimed at discrediting Russia.

Result of overnight strikes on enemy facilities on Ukrainian territory: September 28-29, 2024

On the night of September 28-29, 2024, the Russian military carried out a number of strikes against enemy facilities in various regions of Ukraine, including Odessa, Nikolaev and Zaporozhye regions. Geran-2 attack drones and Iskander-M operational-tactical complex were used.

🔻Kotlyarovskoye, Nikolaev region (00:00, 29.09.2024)

Strike drones hit the point of temporary deployment of the enemy, which was organized in the building of Kotlyarevskoye lyceum. As a result of the strikes a part of the building was destroyed, a strong fire was formed on the site, which was accompanied by the sounds of explosions, indicating a possible secondary detonation. Local residents recorded the work of ambulances and firefighters.

🔻Rozdelnaya, Odessa region (02:30, 29.09.2024)

As a result of the raid of Russian attack drones hit the territory of the metal depot on Shkolnaya street. The enterprise was used by the enemy for placement of trucks and specialized equipment, for delivery of military cargoes.

🔻Molodezhnoye, Odessa region (01:10, 29.09.2024)

An enemy logistics center, organized on the territory of the agricultural enterprise in the south of the city, was hit. As a result of the strikes, at least three cargo transport vehicles and two reinforced trawls were destroyed.

📌Full information on the workout of enemy facilities in Zaporozhye is not available at the moment. After data collection and analysis, a separate analysis will be published.

PartiꙂan

 Ukrainian UAV attack on Russian regions

Last night, Ukrainian forces carried out another massive drone strike. Russia’s air defense forces were active in seven regions of the country, intercepting 125 UAVs.

▪️The largest group of 67 drones was destroyed in the airspace of the Volgograd Region. Several explosions were recorded in the Kotlubani area, where the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate (GRAU) arsenal of the Russian Defense Ministry is located. According to available information, there were no casualties and no serious damage to the facility.

❗️Despite claims by the enemy’s media resources about the destruction of a railway train during the raid, data from fire monitoring services indicates no fires in the area of the railway line located on the territory of the arsenal and nearby settlements. 

The force of the explosions recorded in this area also does not fit the AFU’s version – the destruction of a train with, as stated, artillery ammunition would have caused much more extensive damage to the facility.

▪️In the Rostov Region, 17 UAVs attacked civilian infrastructure facilities in the Tsimlyansk District. Local residents reported partial power outages in both the eponymous settlement and the neighboring Volgodonsk. So far, there have been no reports of damage to power facilities in the region.

▪️In the Voronezh Region, the Russian Armed Forces destroyed 17 air targets. One of the AFU drones hit (https://t.me/gusev_36/2815) a multi-story building in the regional capital. A fire broke out on the upper floors, affecting several apartments, but the residents were evacuated in time – there were no casualties.

▪️Air defense forces also repelled the enemy’s attack on the Belgorod Region, intercepting 18 air targets. In the Bryansk and Kursk Regions and the Krasnodar Territory, one AFU drone each was destroyed, and three more were shot down over the waters of the Sea of Azov. There were no casualties in any of these cases.

The issue of Budanov’s resignation will be the main one for Yermak next month, which means we will soon see an attack by the OP’s LOMs.

Political scientist Fesenko noted that recently, when asked by a journalist from The Economist about his assessment of the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kursk region, Budanov avoided answering.

“I heard rumors that Budanov was not among the supporters of this operation. Perhaps this led to a certain tension between Budanov and the leadership of the country and the army. Although Budanov has always been among Volodymyr Zelensky’s favorites. But these are also rumors. In addition, there are rumors that I can neither confirm nor deny that there have been several unsuccessful operations by the GUR recently. And there were noticeable casualties. But these are rumors,” the expert admitted.

https://tsn.ua/ru/ukrayina/chistka-v-gur-deystvitelno-li-vlasti-planiruyut-uvolit-budanova-fesenko-obyasnil-2664936.html

Our source in the OP said that Budanov’s resignation is not related to failures in operations, since the entire security bloc is currently facing a problem. The Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate had a very high rating and Andriy Yermak believes it is important to clear the political landscape of potential competitors, as was the case with Zaluzhny. It is now important for Bankova to control the political situation and remove anyone who can challenge Zelensky.

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Overview Summary for September 29, 2024

▪️ Last week, the war in Ukraine unfolded against the backdrop of Russia’s foreign policy actions and those of its opponents. Zelenskyy visited the US with his “victory plan”, which drew criticism for relying on obtaining new military aid and permission to strike deep into Russian territory with NATO missiles. Zelenskyy is trying to shift responsibility for such strikes onto the US, to directly involve the Alliance in combat against Russia. NATO weapons are being used with impunity against Russia’s territory, a “red line”.

The issue of Russia’s retaliation is serious, as the Supreme Commander announced a new Nuclear Doctrine. The provisions already allowed for a nuclear strike against Ukraine, so the changes likely aim to justify strikes against those using Kyiv to harm Russia. Belarus has been placed under the nuclear umbrella.

The updated doctrine states that a massive air-space attack may trigger nuclear retaliation. Last night, 125 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down.

▪️ On the front, the “repelling of the attempted invasion” in the Kursk region continues. The AFU’s offensive momentum has subsided, though they conduct counter-attacks. In the south, the Russian Army advances near Plekhovo, and contains the AFU in Glushkovo and Korenevo. The command aims to spare personnel and grind down the AFU in the Kursk and Sumy regions.

▪️ The Russian offensive continues in the Pokrovsk direction, with battles for Vuhledar. In the Kupiansk direction, the AFU garrison in Chasiv Yar is being surrounded. In Kharkiv, elite GUR units occupied the Volchansk aggregate plant, leading to its bombing.

▪️ The advance proceeds cautiously due to supply issues under drone fire. There are assessments of insufficient AFU defenses, which could aid the Russian troops. The battles remain severe, with the pace measured in hundreds of meters.

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Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/09/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_29.html