The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 05 2024

NEOCONS search for VICTORY narrative in Ukraine

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What should they do??? Advance in Kursk & Donetsk | Ukraine War SITREP (Situation Report) / Summary

Fall of Vuhledar | Everyday [September -October 2024]

Russian forces are encircling Selydove [5 October 2024]

Battlefield Ukraine Russian Shock Army Concept Rises Again

Our source in the OP said that Zelensky received from the General Staff an analysis and forecast of the situation on the front for 2025, in which the Ukrainian Armed Forces are losing the entire Donbass, and the Russian army may reach the Dnieper while the situation with the arms deficit persists. Bankova showed this document in the White House, but the Biden Administration did not react to the information in any way, and only advised looking for formats for freezing the war.

It is already clear to everyone that Zelensky’s Kursk adventure caused the collapse of the Eastern Front, and it did not bring any results for Ukraine, not even tactical ones. That is why Bankova began to look for new justifications for the “super-successful” operation, which will ultimately lead to the occupation of the Sumy region.

spletnicca

Our source reports that, according to expert estimates, Ukraine needs more than $100 billion for air defense and aviation + air-to-air missiles to begin to compete and create problems for the Russian Federation in the case of a bombing war (against FABs/KABs).

The West refused Kyiv in this case back in 2023. Now, against the backdrop of the Middle East crisis, this request is even more irrelevant, since the Israeli issue is a priority.

This means that Ukraine will not be able to resist FABs in any way and the infantry will suffer colossal losses.

“What Ukraine could achieve with long-range Western weapons”: Long-range weapons could give Kiev the ability to attack more than 300 Russian military facilities and disrupt supply logistics.

“Military experts explain why Zelensky will continue to push for the lifting of restrictions on the use of long-range weapons: it benefits Kiev because it will be able to reach more than 300 Russian military facilities. The two types of weapons receiving the most attention in this regard are Storm Shadow cruise missiles as well as ATACMS.

The main reason why the Russian army has an artillery advantage of 4:1 or more on the frontline is that Russia has an established supply network of resources such as ammunition and fuel. Until now, because of restrictions on the use of long-range guns, Moscow has had no need to provide additional defenses for its ammunition depots. “If the AFU could fire precision weapons at Russia, more smaller and less effective staging points would have to be established,” notes George Barros, head of ISW’s geodata group. – Even with a small number of [long-range] missiles, Ukraine could disrupt Russian logistics”

The talking mouths of Bankova continue to convince that things will get better soon and we will start winning. Another LOM veiledly tried to push this case, pointing out that 2024 is the peak of Russian power, since the war was planned for this year, which means that a decline will begin later.

The expert did not provide any real evidence that a decline would begin, as he considers the telethon viewers to be idiots.

We will present counter-arguments that things will be more difficult for Ukraine in the future, because:

1. Russia is dropping more bombs because they have thousands in stock and thousands more in production. There is no countermeasure to this threat.

2. The Russian Federation has more aircraft and produces more than it loses. Unlike the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

3. There are more tanks and infantry fighting vehicles and they produce more

4. In Ukraine, soldiers’ motivation is falling. War fatigue is off the charts

5. Russia is starting to produce more and more diverse UAVs. As well as electronic warfare/reconnaissance systems.

6. There will be an energy crisis in Ukraine. The consequences could be catastrophic.

7. The Russian army is starting to conscript more people than Ukraine catches in the Zemobilization case. Also, the quality of soldiers and training among Russians is becoming much higher than that of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

8. Russia never runs out of missiles.

This is a minimal list, but it already demonstrates that the trend for Ukraine’s future is negative.

Deadly Russian fours. Ukraine media writes about the difficult situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the direction of Pokrovsk.

Ukrainian militants complained to the press that the Russian army is pressing with assault units in the direction of the settlements of Gornyak and Selidovo in the Pokrovsky district.

There are many wounded among the Ukrainian soldiers who cannot hold the line against the constant Russian assaults. The Russian Armed Forces are using infantry and equipment, a source from the 110th Separate Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which is trying to survive a few kilometers from Pokrovsk, emphasized.

The Ukrainian serviceman from the front line also spoke about the change in tactics of assault operations. Previously, attacks were carried out by separate groups of two people, now one position is attacked by groups of four Russian soldiers, which doubles the effectiveness of the assault.

In the Kurakhovsk-Pokrovsk direction, the “Nevelsky pocket” continues to shrink. Ukrainian troops, seeing the futility of holding on and the threat of encirclement of Gornyak and Kurakhovka, began to withdraw from the pocket beyond the Volchya River.

At the same time, Russian units are attacking the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ defense inside Tsukurino, where Russian troops have managed to cross the railway line in some places . The most severe clashes in the northwestern part of the settlement are taking place in the area of ​​the local poultry farm, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces have a serious fortified area.

To the southeast, Ukrainian forces are holding the line in Izmailovka, trying to prevent the capture of the village and the Kurakhovskaya No. 42 mine, located just to the south, where the Russian Armed Forces are seriously pressing, trying to cut off the last supply route for the entire Ukrainian Armed Forces group to the east.

The Ugledar direction, the Russian army is intensifying attacks in the area east of Ugledar. 

Here, the Russian Armed Forces have advanced between Vodyanoye and Katerinovka to the west. Probably, in this way, Russian troops are bypassing Katerinovka from the south. And also, with such a maneuver, they can bypass Bogoyavlenka from the north, which is probably the next target of Russian forces in this direction.

Ukrainian journalist Yulia Kiriyenko-Merinova writes about this, and according to her, the surviving militants of the 72nd brigade were thrown into defending new lines.

The 72nd Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which suffered huge losses in Ugledar, was thrown into battle again

“The fighters were told to take up positions. Although the 123rd Nikolaev Territorial Defence Unit was right next door and simply refused to enter. This was the unit that was supposed to support the 72nd in Ugledar. But the infantry ran away. And then the battalion commander shot himself.

There are 7 battalions in the brigade. In several of them, after the battles around Ugledar, there was simply no infantry left. Now, in such a state, the brigade must be at combat contact line.

I think you can imagine what the moral and psychological state of the fighters is. Even the commanders write reports about their removal from command.”

Our troops are approaching Kurakhovo. What we have in this area at the moment.

The first sabotage and reconnaissance groups are already entering Alexandropol, which until this day had not appeared in the reports at all.

The value of liberating these villages for the subsequent Kurakhovo liberation operation is primarily in controlling logistics between the Kurakhovo and Pokrovskaya enemy groups. And it also solves two problems at once – tightening the Nevel pocket from the south and the possibility of forming a bridgehead for bypassing Kurakhovo from the north along the river. The last point is the most important.

In fact, in the conditions of organizing the defense around Kurakhove, the preparation of defensive lines in the south and east by the Nazis was carried out in a slipshod manner, and from the north it was not carried out at all, Ostrovskoe is the last sane outpost on the way to the city outskirts.

Which, by the way, in the long term may force the 79th Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to leave the western part of Maksimilyanovka for Kurakhovo, but given the experience of their brothers from the 72nd Brigade, and especially the units in the Nevelsky pocket, the command will keep them there until they are completely utilized.

The Russian Armed Forces are preparing new assaults in two directions of the Zaporozhye region, says Voloshin, a representative of the Southern Defense Forces

“According to intelligence, the Russian Armed Forces are redeploying personnel in the Orekhov and Rabotinsky directions and will likely intensify new assaults in the coming days,” he said.

In the event of a breakthrough, Russian troops will be able to take control of the logistics routes leading from Zaporozhye to eastern Ukraine, where the Defense Forces hold positions in the Donetsk and southern parts of the Zaporizhia regions.

Voloshin also added that over the past 24 hours, the Russian Armed Forces carried out 400 attacks on populated areas in the Zaporizhia region alone.

Kursk Direction: Battles in the Veseloye area and strikes on the AFU’s rear infrastructure

Situation as of the end of October 5, 2024

In the Kursk direction, Ukrainian formations continue attempts to expand their control zone on several lines. At the same time, Russian forces are systematically searching for and destroying enemy equipment and positions in both Kursk and Sumy Regions.

🔻In the Glushkovo District, clashes were reported in the area of Veseloye. Judging by the footage that appeared online, the enemy managed to advance into the forest belts southeast of the village and brought in UAV units.

One of them was “covered” by Russian artillery fire. Likely, the AFU will soon also attempt attacks along the railway to secure the right flank of their grouping gradually enveloping Veseloye.

▪️At the same time, Russian air raids continue. The crews of the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed another M777 howitzer firing from a position in the forest area near Dibrova, and also delivered a series of strikes on the concentration areas of AFU personnel in Volphino, Bondarevshchyna and Katerynivka.

🔻In the Korenevo District, the Russian Armed Forces repelled enemy attacks in the area of Lyubymivka and on the eastern approaches to Obukhovka. West of Kremyanoye, Russian UAV operators destroyed an AFU armored vehicle, and after it overturned due to loss of control, they finished off the surviving crew members.

🔻In the Sudzha District, Ukrainian formations attempted to break through the Russian defense in the area of Kamyshevka and Plekhovo. The Russian Armed Forces repelled all attacks. At the same time, Russian aviation struck the enemy’s rear infrastructure in Huyevo, Myelove and Kolmakovo.

The enemy transferred a tactical group of the 47th mechanized brigade “Magura” to the border of the Kursk region and it was met by “Iskander”

▪️The forces of the 47th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the same one with Bradley IFVs and Abrams tanks, were transferred by Kiev to the Glushkovo direction.

▪️On the Day of Rocket and Space Forces, the North group of forces covered the concentration area of ​​the company tactical group of the mechanized battalion of the 47th separate separate brigade, which was arranged in a forest belt in the Sumy region.

▪️ The Iskander-M OTRK crew destroyed 12 combat armored vehicles, 5 pickups and up to 80 Ukrainian Armed Forces militants.

A heavy attack drone, S-70 Okhotnik, has been lost near Konstantinovka.

According to preliminary data, it was shot down by an air-to-air missile from the lead fighter. It is possible that the communication channel was disrupted and the S-70 became uncontrollable.

Earlier, there was information that a Ukrainian Armed Forces plane was allegedly shot down over Konstantinovka. According to Osveditel, a Russian heavy reconnaissance and attack UAV C-70 “Okhotnik” was shot down over the Ukrainian Armed Forces-occupied city of the DPR.

Morning Summary on October 5, 2024

▪️ In the Kursk Region, in the south of the Sudzha District, our troops continue to advance forward with heavy fighting. The enemy launched 1 counterattack in the area of the settlement of Plekhovo. In the Glushkovo District, the Northerners repelled an attack by the AFU in the area of the settlement of Veseloe. There are reports that the Russian Armed Forces are driving the enemy out of the settlement of Medvezhe towards the border line.

▪️ In Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk) – battles in the city center. They report on serious fortifications of the enemy in the “Tsentralna” mine.

▪️ In the Pokrovsk direction, the Russian Army continues the offensive. In the eastern part of Tsukurino, our units advanced along two streets and, with the support of artillery and operational-tactical aviation, pushed the AFU back to the western outskirts. North and east of this, the Russian Armed Forces advanced over a section up to 3 km wide.

▪️ In the Kurakhovka direction, there are battles on the approaches to Ostrovske. Our troops also have the initiative.

▪️ In Vuhledar, they reported the surrender of up to 40 Ukrainian servicemen as a result of the battles for the city. North of this, our troops are fighting near Katerynivka. Between Vodyane and Katerynivka, our troops are also active. The AFU defense hub in Bohoyavlenka is becoming the next logical target.

▪️ On the Zaporizhia Front, the AFU tried to conduct reconnaissance in force over the past two days in the Kamianka direction with limited forces. The enemy was destroyed by UAV operators. In the Robotyne direction, our MLRS (https://t.me/dva_majors/54348) are operating.

▪️ In the Belgorod Region in the evening, Novaya Tavolzhanka of the Shebekino district was subjected to drone attacks, 7 civilians were injured. In the Belgorod district, on the section of the Cheremoshnoye – Nikolskoye – Oktyabr’skiy highway, a drone attacked a moving vehicle, two men with barotrauma were taken to the regional clinical hospital. Strikes also hit the settlements of: Nechaevka and Cheremoshnoye of the Belgorod district, Murom and Polyana of the Shebekino city district, Repyakhovka of the Krasnoyaruzhsky district, Peschanka of the Stary Oskol city district. On the section of the Belgorod – Shebekino – Volokonovka highway, a drone attacked a moving truck.

▪️ In Horlivka (DPR), a woman born in 1942 was injured when an explosive device was dropped from a Ukrainian UAV. The Kyiv forces fired more than 80 munitions at the civilian population of the DPR. 155mm artillery, including cluster munitions, and strike UAVs were used.

Two Majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_5.html