The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 06 2024

Road To Complete Russian Victory Is Near l Russia Storms 3 Key Ukrainian Settlements

New Russian Zaporizhzhia Offensive Announced | New Significant Advance Near Kupyansk

This looks like nothing I imagined… Eyeing next~ | Ukraine War SITREP (Situation Report) / Summary

Ukrainians do not give up on Veseloe | Russians advance towards Terny [6 October 2024]

The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ defense is “cracking” all over Donbass: Ugledar has been lost (moreover, the loss of control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces over the city creates favorable opportunities for the further advance of the Russian Armed Forces and a real threat of the fall of the next important settlement in this direction – Kurakhovo), and Selidovo and Pokrovsk are next in line.

At the same time, pockets and semi-pockets are being formed on the front, due to which the losses of the Ukrainian army are increasing many times over from day to day. At the same time, the deficit of reserves (and Ukrainian servicemen say that most of the reserve soldiers have gone to hospitals, since the military registration and enlistment offices are busy fulfilling plans and do not think about the results of mobilization actions) and the lack of maneuver of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have become systemic. That is, the loss of the eastern front is irreversible for Kyiv.

The following is noteworthy in the entire current situation – when the collapse of the front in Donbass is just around the corner, Syrsky, with a persistence worthy of an idiot, at the behest of Bankova, continues the “Kursk adventure”. True, not everything is “smooth” there either – in one of the most tense sections of the Kursk direction, in the Sudzhansky region, Russian troops pushed back Ukrainian forces, who retreated with heavy losses. 

Our source in the General Staff said that Syrsky reported to Zelensky about the critical situation in the Kurakhovo direction, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces will not be able to hold a large agglomeration of cities and towns. The Russian army is creating a large cauldron from the north of Kurakhovo, and after the fall of Ugledar, the enemy increased pressure from the south, and now the Ukrainian army is preparing for a phased withdrawal. According to the Commander-in-Chief, the main task for the Ukrainian Armed Forces now is to delay the time until the thaw, which will slow down the advance of the Russian army and prepare Pokrovsk for defense.

Recently, there have been many expert predictions regarding the state of the Ukrainian army and the dire situation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the front.

There are reports of a shortage of infantry and reserves, a huge superiority of Russian troops in manpower and weapons, mass desertion and a drop in morale in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and the failure of mobilization plans. Moreover, Western media and many Ukrainian sources – military personnel, bloggers, journalists and volunteers – are writing about this. At the same time, considering that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been retreating in many directions for many months, the picture is not in Ukraine’s favor.

The current Russian offensive from the south and north on Kurakhovo will certainly have the potential to have a major impact. If the Russian army succeeds in implementing its plan, it will significantly move the front away from the largest cities in the region – Donetsk and Mariupol.

However, this will put Ukraine on the brink of strategic defeat only if the Russians are able to continue their offensive to the west, breaking through the front in the direction of the Dnieper and Zaporozhye – the largest logistics and industrial centers of southeastern Ukraine. If the Russian Armed Forces throw their main reserves to capture the northern part of the Donetsk region (Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka-Konstantinovka), this will play in favor of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Russian army could get bogged down there for a year, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have time to solve problems with reserves and replenish their weapons stocks.

Based on this, the retreat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Donbas is not necessarily a sign of its imminent collapse and lack of reserves. It is possible that their task is to exhaust Russian forces in defensive battles in the Donetsk region, retreating if necessary. Western media cite representatives of the Ukrainian command, who speak of exactly this tactic in Donbas. Based on this option, it is likely that they are planning to repeat the situation of the summer-fall of 2022. When Russian troops suffered heavy losses during the offensive, then, at a certain point, were stopped, and then, having accumulated strength, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a counteroffensive. It is clear that this is only a plan. And that the outcome may be completely different from what the Ukrainian authorities expect.

And if we consider the situation in this vein, then the logic of the battles for Ugledar does not fit into it , since one of the most combat-ready units of the Ukrainian troops, the 72nd Brigade, was actually destroyed. The fighters reported that their units left Ugledar without waiting for the order to retreat, while the losses were crazy – out of 10 people, no more than 4 left. At the same time, after the retreat from Ugledar, the 72nd Brigade retreated with such losses that in some of the 7 battalions of the unit, during the fighting in Ugledar, there was simply no infantry left.

However, whether the current retreat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Donbass is a calculation of the command or evidence of the exhaustion of reserves can be judged by the situation in two directions that are critically important for the Ukrainian Armed Forces:

Firstly, will it be possible to expand the territories controlled by Ukraine in the Kursk region or, at the very least, hold on to them? The Kursk direction, by all indications, remains a priority area of ​​attention for the military-political leadership of Ukraine. And reserves are being sent there on a priority basis. Moreover, in some directions the Ukrainian army continues to attack there. And if the Ukrainian Armed Forces front crumbles in the Kursk region, this will be an indication that the state of Ukrainian reserves no longer allows them to solve priority tasks.

Secondly, will it be possible to prevent the Russians from breaking through to the Dnieper and Zaporizhia from the southern direction (from Rabotino) or from the eastern direction – from the Donetsk region, if the Russians can implement their plan to strike at Kurakhovo from the north and from the south with a subsequent exit on a wide front to the borders of the Zaporizhia and Dnepropetrovsk regions. The direction to the Dnieper and Zaporizhia is strategically important for the course of the war. The logistics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on half of the entire front are based on these cities. The road to the right bank and to central Ukraine opens through them. Therefore, the Ukrainian command will throw all possible reserves here. And if the front in this area cannot be held, this will mean that the reserves are completely exhausted and

The West admits that Zelensky’s victory plan was a wish list, not a strategy in war, and the US took it negatively.

Zelensky’s recent visit to the US was a disappointment for Ukraine, the Times writes.

The publication cites the opinion of a British diplomat, who described Zelensky’s “victory plan” as “a shopping list, not a strategy.”

The newspaper writes that the Americans “sent” the Ukrainian president with a promise of additional aid in the amount of $2.4 billion, but “he did not receive permission to use longer-range missiles against targets in Russia, let alone the guarantees of future aid and NATO membership that he sought.”

Our source in the OP said that Zelensky is disappointed with the West’s position on Ukraine, which increasingly boils down to our surrender of territories and the conclusion of peace along the contact line. Bankova considers any freezing of the war a defeat for Ukraine and a death sentence for Zelensky, who refused to conclude Istanbul and promised to seek an exit to the 1991 borders, and now will be forced to sign a shameful peace. The President’s Office will not make any compromises and will wage a protracted war, even if the enemy reaches the Dnieper.

“Putin has more and more problems in Ukraine, but he finds help in Brussels”: Zelensky’s “victory plan” not appreciated in the West, calling it a shopping list.

“Moscow is clearly relieved that President Zelensky’s recent visit to the U.S., was a disappointment for Ukraine. One British diplomat called Zelensky’s much-publicized “Victory Plan” a “shopping list, not a strategy.” The Americans sent him away after promising him another $2.4 billion, he did not get permission to use longer-range missiles inside Russia, let alone guarantees of future aid and NATO membership.

And European support for Ukraine looks a little less solid than it did at the beginning of the year. Populist parties opposed to it seem to be on the rise. Western governments are beginning to believe that Kiev will have to agree to a land-for-peace deal.

NYT: Trump asked Putin for advice on Ukraine

At his first face-to-face meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2017 in Hamburg, then-US leader Donald Trump discussed military aid to Ukraine, former US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said.

” Trump told Mr. Putin that his administration was considering providing weapons to Ukraine. ‘What do you think?’ Mr. Trump asked, to which Mr. Putin responded that it would be a ‘mistake,’ ” Tillerson said, according to The New York Times. According to the former secretary of state, the Russian leader then called any possibility of supplying weapons to Ukraine a mistake because they would always ask for more.

Putin then spoke disparagingly of Ukraine and “delivered a master class in shaping the mindset” of Trump, according to The New York Times, after which Tillerson called on U.S. administration officials to “work to change the president’s mind about Ukraine.”

Our source in the General Staff said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have exhausted their resources to continue the Kursk operation, but Zelensky demands that they hold their positions until the US elections and try to carry out attacks deep into Russian territory. Syrsky is forced to withdraw reserves from the Zaporizhzhya and Kharkiv directions so that the Russian army does not drive the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the Kursk region.

Russian Armed Forces Eliminate Ukrainian Armed Forces Militants Who Killed Civilians in Kursk Region

Motorized riflemen of the 44th Army Corps in the Kursk region witnessed Ukrainian soldiers shooting civilians who were trying to evacuate toward Russian positions. In response, Russian Armed Forces soldiers attacked and destroyed the militants.

According to the commander with the call sign Gorizont, what he saw made his blood boil.

“ The personnel moved to the points from which they opened fire and destroyed the enemy,” the commander reported.

Our source reports that Zelensky continues to demand that Commander-in-Chief Syrsky hold the Kursk territories at any cost, even against the backdrop of the catastrophe on the Donbass front.

New reserves are being sent there. New raids are being conducted. A huge military contingent is being kept in the Sumy region.

As the source explains: Zelensky is interested in the PR component, that the 2024 offensive is successful, look how much Russian territory we hold, and it is customary not to remember the defeats in Donbas. Supposedly they do not exist. A kind of double reality.

Bankova continues to pursue PR, not real war.

Therefore, Donbass will continue to be drained.

On October 5, the “North” group of troops carried out combat missions in the border areas of Kursk and Belgorod regions

Fighting continues on the section of the state border in the Glushkovsky district. The soldiers of the North repelled two attacks of the AFU in the direction of Veseloye settlement with the total number of up to 20 people, 9 of them were destroyed and one was taken prisoner. In addition, as a result of artillery and aviation strikes, the enemy’s losses for the day amounted to up to 17 men, a Caesar SPH and a D-30 howitzer.

The advance of the Fearless continues in the vicinity of the settlement Plekhovo. The AFU launched two counterattacks with the forces of up to a platoon of personnel, with no success, and lost up to 14 men killed. On the Korenyevsky section of the front and in the north of the Sujan district, the North Vietnamese conducted RPAs in forested areas and carried out planned fire attacks on identified AFU targets. 

The total advance of Russian troops in Kursk region amounted to up to 1,500 meters.

In the Volchansk direction, fierce fighting continues in the village of Volchansk. Northern reconnaissance revealed and destroyed by fire from TOS-1A Solntsepek an AFU assault group near the village of Tikhoye. The enemy’s losses are being specified.

In addition, two attempts to transfer reserves in the direction of the aggregate plant via the eastern bridge were thwarted. Up to 12 Nazis were killed by artillery fire and UAV drops.

In the Liptsy direction, the enemy made 3 attempts to transfer reinforcements by UAVs and pickup trucks from the Liptsy area in the direction of the dacha village and adjacent forest belts. FPV drones fired on them, up to 15 men and a pickup truck were destroyed.

Over the past 24 hours, the enemy losses amounted to more than 300 people (including up to 220 in the Sumy direction). Also uncovered and destroyed:

in the Sumy direction:

▪️ “Caesar” SPH;

▪️ “Bogdana” SPH;

▪️ howitzer D-30;

▪️ howitzer D-20;

▪️ BBM;

▪️ two 120-mm mortars;

▪️ UAV PU;

▪️ Khmara EW station.

In other directions:

▪️ 2S3 “Akatsiya” SAU near the village of Sosnovka;

▪️ 2S1 “Gvozdika” SAU near Novaya Kazachya;

▪️ control point in the vicinity of the Neskuchnoye settlement;

▪️ three 120-mm mortars;

▪️ two UAV launchers;

▪️ one vehicle;

▪️ 12 aircraft-type UAVs.

Zelensky’s “Kursk meat grinder” continues to devour AFU personnel and equipment. The Ukrainian command has pulled all the NATO weapons available to them there and has no intention of stopping.

It is possible that such wastefulness is caused by behind-the-scenes promises from Western handlers to give Kiev more weapons. We do not know how long the NATO weapons stockpile will last, but the Ukrainian population’s stockpile is running out very quickly.

Victory will be ours!

“Not Russia for us, but we for Russia – that is our motto.” – N.D.Sergeevsky

North Wind 

The RF Armed Forces are making a cauldron around Kupyansk and Kupyansk-uzlovoy.

The assault actions of the RF Armed Forces on the northern and southern coverage of the Kupyansk conglomerate are becoming dynamic.

Russian air forces destroyed an AFU bridge over the Oskol River and vaporized a transport with AFU fighters.

 - Aircraft struck with an aviation bomb with a universal planning and correction module, destroying an AFU crossing of the Oskol River near the settlement of Gorokhovatka in Kharkov Region. 

 - At the time of the strike, enemy vehicles were transporting personnel for rotation.

Some Ukrainian channels are beginning to report that after the loss of Ugledar, shelling is beginning to arrive at new AFU positions within a 20-kilometre zone of the previously lost positions. Apparently, the processing of the Ukrainian army’s positions is beginning in order to prevent them from gaining a proper foothold. The new lines of defense are not considered as strong as in Ugledar, but Russian armed forces apparently did not underestimate them and started working almost immediately.  

Ukraine should attack Belarus after invading Kursk region

This was stated by the Verkhovna Rada deputy Oleg Dunda. According to him, if the Ukrainian Armed Forces enter the territory, the Belarusians will immediately lay down their arms.

” It is important to transfer the war not only to the territory of the Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod regions but also to Belarus. I am deeply confident. If relatively small units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces enter, the Belarusian army will lay down its arms. This is not even confidence, this is knowledge. And this is a big blow to Moscow’s gut,” the Ukrainian deputy noted.

Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against Belarus. According to Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, Kiev is trying to provoke Moscow.

 Poland is preparing for war with Russia and is preparing to introduce general conscription – Reuters

 - “Everything is indicating that we are the generation that will stand up in arms to defend our country. And neither I nor any of you intend to lose this war,” armed forces chief of staff General Wieslaw Kukula was quoted as saying in an address on Friday to a military academy, the University of Land Forces, in Wroclaw.

 - “The potential of the enemy (we are talking about Russia and Belarus) is so great that we have to build a much bigger army, which means we also have to introduce a shared service model.”

 - Under such circumstances, the country will need “a much bigger army than it has now,” because “none of the Europeans want to lose this war.”

 - According to the country’s Defense Ministry, the Polish army will have more than 207,500 soldiers by the end of the year.

The General Staff is currently stalling for time to prepare Pokrovsk for defense and is building defense lines outside the city. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have urgently begun to build fortifications outside Pokrovsk to prepare the Dnipropetrovsk region for defense

This is reported by Western Osint analysts who discovered changes in satellite images.

Pokrovsk-Kurakhove Direction: Capture of Tsukurino and Advance West of Ostryi

Situation as of 4:00 PM on October 6, 2024

Russian forces continue the offensive against the enemy occupying settlements of the Donetsk People’s Republic. Currently, two “semi-envelopments” are forming in the area of Selidovo and Kurakhivka.

▪️North of Novohrodivka, the Russian Armed Forces improved their position on the ground, driving the enemy out of positions in the area of Mykolaivka. In Lysovka, assault troops have entrenched themselves at least in the houses on the outskirts of the village, despite the active work of AFU artillery and drones. The actual zone of Russian control may be much wider, but it will only be possible to clarify it when video materials are received. And on the line Lysovka – Selidovo, Russian troops advanced westward, capturing the waste heap of the “Novohrodivska” No. 2 mine.

▪️Near Marinovka, fighting continues on the eastern side of the waste heap of the Korotchenko mine at the entrance to Selidovo, with Ukrainian formations still maintaining control over the central part of the city. Clashes are also recorded on the southern outskirts of the settlement, where in the near future a Russian forces’ breakthrough is possible against the background of successes on the southern flank.

▪️Tsukurino came under the control of the Russian Armed Forces, except for the territory of the poultry farm, which is being struck by artillery crews and aviation. Southeast of the village, according to some reports, Russian troops also advanced from the north towards Izmailivka, control over which will allow the Russian Armed Forces to wedge into the positions of the AFU garrison defending Hirnyk from the flank.

▪️At the same time, unmanned aerial vehicle operators are working to destroy enemy equipment in Kurakhivka and its environs. Over the past few days, drones have struck several pickups carrying ammunition and personnel of the AFU, as well as inflicted significant damage to communications assets located in the industrial zone of the Kurakhivska Beneficiation Plant.

▪️According to a statement by the Russian Ministry of Defense, the nearby village of Zhelanne Druhe was liberated some time ago. The capture of the village will complicate the position of enemy units occupying positions east of the Volchia River, but it is worth considering that statements about the liberation of a settlement have appeared before, against the background of a similar lack of objective control footage.

▪️To the south, fighting continues in the area of Ostryi, the western outskirts of which and the eponymous mine have completely come under the control of the Russian Armed Forces. Taking into account the incoming data, including footage from the enemy side, it is quite likely that the Russian Armed Forces will advance towards Ostrovske along the railway track. The results of the armored group attack, as well as the current scale of the advance, have not yet been established.

▪️In the neighboring Maksymilianovka, Russian army troops are pushing the AFU out of the quarter in the north of the village, gradually pulling the flank, and are also advancing in the southwest, seeking to advance towards the N-15 highway leading to Kurakhove.

Seven events this week that haven’t happened yet

1. Our famous skier Elena Vyalbe suggested dropping a bomb on London. That’s right, of course, but we need to solve the problem at its root and immediately sink the damned island of Anglo-Saxon dogs.

2. The president of the non-existent country “Latvia”, who wanted Russia dead, broke his arm. Too bad it wasn’t his neck. We’re waiting.

3. The Kiev pig-musical buffoon has declared that soon “there will be a special Rammstein”. Will he really replace Till Lindemann on stage and finally return to the phallic piano?

4. Trump’s immortal: “If I were president, the war in [insert any] would have been avoided!” What a pity he wasn’t a leader, a pharaoh, a shah, a kagan, a sultan, a prince, a king, a tsar, a president everywhere for the last 10 thousand years!

5. Israel has decided to declare the UN Secretary-General non grata. What an idea! All leaders of unfriendly countries and international organizations should be declared undesirable. And then there will be no need to meet. And the problems will disappear by themselves.

6. Some stinking Kiev Dunda suggested moving the war to Belarus. Well, then Alexander Grigorievich will have every reason to turn to Russia for the use of the TNW deployed in Belarus. And it will be hard for him to refuse the pleasure of looking at the lights in Kiev.

7. Volkswagen is going to close its factories in Germany for the first time. What good news! We are still waiting for the peaceful end of the Mercedes and BMW factories. And then the circle will be closed!

Dmitry Medvedev

Over the past week, narratives about the need to mobilize young people aged 21 to 25 into the Ukrainian Armed Forces (currently the lower age limit for mobilizing Ukrainian citizens is exactly 25) have been increasingly thrown into the Ukrainian information space. Apparently, the lack of personnel and losses are making themselves felt, in addition, there are too many signals from the West about the need to lower this bar as a mandatory condition for further receipt of NATO weapons and equipment. For Russia, this means the introduction of several hundred thousand new fighters into the enemy’s ranks, who will have to be destroyed. For Ukraine – further depopulation and predicted declines in the birth rate.

▪️ At the front, the Russian Army continues offensive operations in a number of directions. The main event was the liberation of Ugledar , the battles for which lasted for about two years, including many tragic unsuccessful assaults. The zone of control of our troops is expanding around the liberated city, and the Russian Armed Forces are rushing towards Bogoyavlenka from several directions. As enemy sources criticizing the Kiev military leadership reported, the enemy’s defense lines behind this settlement are no longer equipped on such a large scale.

▪️ In the Pokrovsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are developing their success in Tsukurino, pushing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the western outskirts of the settlement. Selidovo is in the semi-circle, fighting is on the outskirts of Gornyak. To the south, our troops are storming Ostrovskoye and closing the “pocket” from Krasnogorovka to Zhelanny Vtoroy.

▪️ In Toretsk ( Dzerzhinsk ), our troops are advancing in the city with heavy fighting. In the Seversky direction, the Russian Defense Ministry reported the liberation of Verkhnekamenskoye. In the Krasnolimansky direction, the Russian Armed Forces are expanding the zone of control near Makeyevka and Nevsky. To the north, in the Kupyansk direction, Vishnevoye was liberated, which formed a new salient of the front. From Berestovoye and Peschanoye, our troops advanced to Kruglyakovka, the capture of which will ensure access to the Oskol River south of Kupyansk.

▪️ The Kharkov direction is practically unchanged. The formed wedging did not allow the formation of the so-called “buffer zone” to protect the civilian population of the Belgorod region, which is subjected to terrorist attacks and shelling on a daily basis.

▪️ In the Kursk region, there have been no large-scale changes to the front line over the past week; heavy fighting was reported near Plekhovo, where our troops are advancing south of the settlement. In the Glushkovsky district, the enemy’s attacks continued to be repelled near Vesyoloye, but in the neighboring direction, successes of the Russian Armed Forces were reported near the border town of Medvezhye.

▪️ Offensive actions of the Russian Army in a number of areas naturally require more resources, the same drones. The increase in the number of regular and non-regular UAV units leads to a shortage of them due to the discrepancy between the number of UAVs supplied and the combat missions being solved, which logically requires an increase in the rate of issuance of drones to save the lives of attack aircraft.

▪️ In the rear and at the front , the security forces continue to be cleansed of the proliferating corrupt officials. Thus, the former head of the branch “Construction Department for the Central Military District” of the “Military Construction Company” Sergei Sukhov was arrested on charges of embezzling 35 million during the repair of a military hospital in Perm. In frontline units, work has also been intensified against unscrupulous officials.

Thus, the Russian Armed Forces maintain the initiative at the front, solving the tasks of depriving the enemy of logistics in the near rear, and strike deep into enemy territory. The Ukrainian Armed Forces, with the support of the West, are fighting skillfully and trying to contain the onslaught of our troops, are forced to keep a group in the Kursk region and replenish it with manpower and equipment, ensuring control over the Sudzha gas measuring station, which supplies blue fuel to Hungary and Austria, as experts write. The difference in the potentials of the armies of Russia and Ukraine forces the latter in the short term to lower the mobilization age to 21 (according to some sources, the West wanted to immediately – to 18) and replenish the Ukrainian Armed Forces with manpower using known force methods. Nevertheless, such an approach and NATO assistance allow the enemy to continue to provide organized resistance.

Two majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_6.html