The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 07 2024

Zelensky’s Plan to ‘Force Peace’ on Russia

Russian Forces Storm Kam’yans’ke & Antonivka | Kursk Offensive Short Summary

RUSSIA ENTERS ZOLOTA NYVA~!!! …and do a lot of other weird stuffs | Ukraine War Summary / SITREP

Russian Forces Capture The Aggregate Plant | Zolota Nyva Has Fallen

RUSSIA ENTERS ZOLOTA NYVA~!!! …and do a lot of other weird stuffs | Ukraine War Summary / SITREP

The West increasingly understands that Ukraine will not be able to withstand a protracted war, and NATO has no desire to enter into a direct conflict with Russia. That is why the US is beginning to persuade Kyiv to freeze the war along the front lines in order to maintain parity and get the most out of the conflict.

The US and the “corridors of Kyiv” are changing the goals of the war and are leaning towards negotiations with Russia to stop the war along the front lines.

The Financial Times writes about this in its editorial column.

“In Washington, some Western capitals and the corridors of Kyiv, the mood is changing: from the determination that the war can only end with the expulsion of the Russian army from Ukrainian territory, to the forced recognition that the best chance for the future is a negotiated settlement that will preserve most of the country,” the article says.

At the same time, the publication writes that so far “Kyiv has not received enough support to achieve even this reduced goal.”

“Ukraine is entering its third winter of war, and the mood is darker than ever. In the east, its forces are losing ground to an inexorable advance by Russian opponents, albeit at great cost to Moscow. With half their power grid destroyed, Ukrainians will spend hours in the cold months without power or heat,” the FT describes the situation.

Some Western capitals that previously insisted on the need to defeat Russia militarily are “reconsidering their aims” amid the escalation in the Middle East.

And “some Ukrainian officials are privately expressing concerns that they lack the manpower, firepower and Western support to retake all the territory Russia has seized.”

So “behind closed doors, there is talk of a deal in which Moscow retains effective control over the roughly fifth of Ukraine it occupies, although its sovereignty is not recognised, while the rest of the country would be allowed to join NATO or be given equivalent security guarantees. Under this “umbrella,” Ukraine will be able to recover and integrate into the EU, like West Germany during the Cold War.”

At the same time, the newspaper writes that the underlying assumptions of this formula are problematic.

Our source in the OP said that Zelensky warned the Biden Administration about the critical shortage of weapons in the Ukrainian Armed Forces and demanded an urgent increase in the supply of BC, but received only assurances of support. Bankova is now carefully preparing the format of a new escalation of the war in order to draw NATO countries into a direct clash with Russia, one of the options being considered is an operation in Transnistria.

Russia’s new conditions for starting peace talks will be much tougher, as Russian Telegram channels have already reported.

After the Ukrainian Armed Forces invaded the Kursk region, the Kremlin rejected Putin’s July ultimatum and decided to slowly push through the front, increasing the budget for this purpose.

All insinuations about Ukraine’s membership in NATO in exchange for territory are nothing more than an element of bargaining, and in the current format, one that the Kremlin does not need at all.

Nobody in Russia will take such steps now that the front is in the process of collapse. After all, the main goal of this war for Russia is to prevent our membership in NATO. In this sense, there is no strategic sense in who controls Pokrovsk, Chasov Yar and other populated areas. What difference does it make to Moscow whether 75% of Ukraine will be in NATO or 80%?

This war is not a war for territories, but for geopolitical interests. Therefore, they will put pressure on us until they are convinced that we will not be a NATO springboard against the Russian Federation.

Our source reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will most likely not be able to launch an offensive in 2025, as they have a huge deficit in heavy weapons, equipment and air defense.

It is worth understanding that the Ugledar strike buried even theoretical chances of going on the offensive in the Mariupol direction. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost one of the most important defense nodes, and Russia gained additional opportunities for logistical maneuver, including the transfer of troops and equipment.

It is worth expecting that in the next 7 months the Russian Armed Forces will attack along the entire front and the only question is what Ukraine will be able to hold on to.

After the US presidential elections, we are highly likely to see a new escalation.

Before negotiations, each side will raise the stakes as much as possible.

Trump is not a Russian ally who will immediately surrender Ukraine to please Moscow. Rather, he will provide us with assistance based on a bipartisan consensus on the issue.

Russia will conduct new offensive operations. We will be slowly thrown out of the Kursk region. Perhaps by the end of this year and the beginning of the next we will lose all presence in this region of the Russian Federation.

As for Donbass, the fate of Pokrovsk and Mirnograd is predetermined. Unfortunately, there is no doubt that the turn of Chasov Yar and Kupyansk will come. The Russians decided to concentrate on Donbass and did not lose focus despite the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region.

Therefore, the Kremlin’s demands will only become tougher. As our mobilization potential is exhausted, and the West is in no hurry to take radical measures to change the balance of power around our war.

Head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Naryshkin on the transformation of the United States and Britain into terrorist countries:

▫️Russia is facing an unprecedented form of terrorist threat, which comes not only from terrorist gangs or lone-wolf terrorists, but from an entire state, or rather a group of states. Ukraine and its Western handlers have launched a real terrorist war against our country and our people.

▫️American intelligence has been passing information to Kiev since the very beginning of the conflict, which is then used to launch strikes against Russian civilian infrastructure. Dumbfounded by permissiveness, the AFU launched a real terrorist raid on the Kursk region in early August. The plan of the terrorist attack included seizing and mining the Kursk nuclear power plant. If this plan had been realized, Europe would have faced an ecological and humanitarian catastrophe comparable to Chernobyl.

▫️According to reliable information, special services of NATO countries are transferring militants from the Middle East to the SMO zone. The negotiations between the parties [Kiev and the terrorists] are taking place with the assistance of the special services of the United States and Great Britain, with the tacit approval of the Turkish occupation administration in Idlib. There are indications that after the Ukrainian conflict is over, the militants are supposed to be used to destabilize the entire Eurasian region. 

▫️SVR has reliable information about the direct involvement of the United States and Great Britain in the undermining of the Nord Stream gas pipelines. Professional saboteurs from the Anglo-Saxon secret services were involved in the organization, preparation and carrying out.

▫️To achieve their geopolitical goals, the Anglo-Saxons consider it justified to use any means, not excluding terror. By “pumping” the criminal Kiev regime with jihadists and weapons, the United States and Great Britain are confidently moving towards becoming sponsor states of terrorism. They will be held accountable for this. 

There will be no battle for Selidovo as such; the Russian army has adopted the tactic of encircling populated areas, which forces the Ukrainian Armed Forces to retreat from the cities.

The General Staff is not yet able to put forward an adequate defense model and is forced to simply flood the fields with reserves, which leads to large losses for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but does not stop the Russian army.

the_military_analytics

The Russian army’s offensive in the Selidovo direction is developing

The Russian Armed Forces have driven the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the Aleksandrovskoye poultry farm west of Tsukurino, and have entered Novoselidovka to the south.

Conditions are being created for the future encirclement of Gornyak and Kurakhovka.

Units of the “Vostok” group of the Russian Armed Forces have advanced northwest of Ugledar and in the area of ​​the village of Vesyoloye, approaching Bogoyavlenka in the DPR, the Russian Defense Ministry reports.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have urgently started building fortifications behind Pokrovsk to prepare the Dnepropetrovsk region for defense

This is reported by Western Osint-analysts who discovered changes on satellite images.

According to objective control data, our troops have crossed the Dnepr River delta and entered Kamenskoye in the Zaporizhia region. 

Quite unexpected, it should be noted.

beard_tim

Russian fighters liberated the village of Zolotaya Niva on the way to Velykaya Novoselovka – last year, it was from here that the Ukrainian counteroffensive began

The Eastern Group of Forces reports details of the liberation of the settlement: the assault began yesterday morning with the support of artillery and the active work of drone operators.

By the end of the day the village was practically freed from the enemy presence. 

As of this morning, a few more boys are “hanging out” in the forest belt to the southwest, but that will not be for long time.

Zaporizhia Direction: Advance of Russian Forces in the Kamianske Area

Situation as of the end of October 7, 2024

In the Zaporizhia Direction, the past day saw an intensification of attacks by the Russian Armed Forces on the eastern bank of the former Kakhovka Reservoir. The sector, long “static”, came into motion, which could create new difficulties for the opponent experiencing an operational crisis on the Donbas front.

▪️The Russian forces broke through (https://t.me/dva_majors/54541) the defense of the AFU in Kamianske, entering the village along the bank and through the Yanchekrak River bed. Part of the AFU positions was isolated, and the remnants were destroyed.

Video shows Russian troops advancing from the north, indicating the front line had moved deeper into the AFU defense.

UAV units suppressed firing points and observation posts, revealing weak points in the AFU defense, allowing Russian forces to advance with little resistance.

❗️However, it’s too early to speak of consolidation – there’s no evidence of this. The opponent is transferring reserves to curb the Russian successes.

▪️The Zaporizhia Direction has been “static” for a long time. The main combat operations took place in the Pyatikhatok and Robotyne areas during the AFU’s unsuccessful “counteroffensive” last year.

The offensive in Kamianske may aim to disrupt the opponent’s preparations in the Energodar area, drawing in units withdrawn for training and replenishment.

Similar attacks on weak points may continue, as there are many “quiet” places on the southern front.

rybar

 Fighters of the “North” group hung a Russian flag on the territory of the Volchansk aggregate plant!

Thanks to the courage and bravery of the Fearless, the Ukrainian Nazis suffered significant losses and the remnants fled the aggregate plant. The elite special units of the Ukrainian GUR “Stugna”, “Junger”, “Terror”, “Paragon” and RDK are defeated by the fighters of the “North”. Control over the territory of the enterprise has been restored.

Not so long ago, the GUR of Ukraine claimed full control over the territory of the former factory, but the minute media success turned out to be a failure for the Nazis, huge losses and shameful flight.

North Wind

On October 6, the “North” troop group carried out tasks to liberate the border areas of Kursk Region

In the Glushkovsky district, Northern artillery and Russian air force aviation carried out a planned fire attack on identified AFU targets in the border zone. Over the course of the day on this section of the front, enemy losses amounted to up to 14 personnel, 2 BBMs, a mortar and 2 UAV control points. 

In the south of Sujan district, the Fearless advanced with heavy fighting near the village of Plekhovo, repulsing one counterattack by the AFU with up to 8 men, of whom 6 were destroyed. On the Korenyevsky section of the front, the Northern assault groups continued their attacking operations and advanced significantly in a southeastern direction.  

The total advance of Russian troops in the Kursk region amounted to up to 2000 meters.

In the Volchansk direction, fierce fighting continues in the town of Volchansk. The fighters of the “North” group are actively pushing the AFU out of the territory of the aggregate plant, inflicting huge losses on the enemy. 

In Liptsovsky direction, the Fearless inflicted a fire defeat on two AFU assault groups of up to 6 men each when attempting to move out of a dacha village. Up to 8 Nazis were killed. 

Over the past 24 hours, the enemy losses amounted to up to 290 people (including up to 200 in the Sumy direction). Also uncovered and destroyed:

on the Sumy direction:

▪️ D-30 howitzer;

▪️ three AVs;

▪️ two 120-mm mortars;

▪️ two UAV launch sites;

▪️ two units of automotive equipment;

In other areas:

▪️ MLRS “Vampire”;

▪️ two AVs near the village of Volchansk;

▪️ 120-mm mortar;

▪️ two UAVs control points near the village of Udy;

▪️ two pieces of automotive equipment;

▪️ nine aircraft type UAVs.

The Ukrainian command continues to withdraw its defeated brigades from the Kursk region. The 22nd Brigade suffered heavy losses, lost its combat effectiveness and is being sent to be re-staffed with a new batch of Ukrainians caught on the street.

Much more serious are the losses in the elite units of the GUR, which lost more than 130 Nazis during 2 weeks of fighting at the Volchansk aggregate plant. Here the term “withdrawal to make up for losses” is not quite correct to apply, they are simply chased away from the territory of the factory by the Warriors of the North. 

Victory will be ours!

“Of all the valuable capitals available in the world, the most valuable and most decisive capital is people.” – Stalin

North Wind

Kursk direction: fighting in Glushkovo and Korenevo districts

situation as of the end of October 6, 2024

In the Kursk Region, fighting continues in several sectors. Ukrainian formations maintain high activity and launch attacks.

🔻In the Glushkovo District, fighting continues in the area of Vesele, where the enemy has occupied several forest belts to the east and south of the settlement.

Russian aviation strikes AFU in the adjacent areas of the Sumy Region. In the area of Dibrova, Russian Aerospace Forces crews destroyed an M777 howitzer that was firing from a forest. Hits were also recorded on the concentration areas of the AFU in Volfino, Bondarevshchyna and Katerynivka.

🔻In the Korenevo District, the Russian Armed Forces repelled enemy attacks in the area of Lyubymivka and on the eastern approaches to Obukhovka. In Lyubymivka itself, a Roshel Senator MRAP of the AFU was destroyed by a Lancet strike.

In the area of Kremyane, Russian UAV operators hit an AFU armored vehicle, and the surviving crew members were finished off. East of the settlement, an attack by the Russian Armed Forces in the direction of the forest, which had been repeatedly subjected to air strikes, was recorded. Objective control footage does not allow determining the outcome of the assault.

🔻In the Sudzha District, Ukrainian formations attacked in the area of Kamyshevka and Plekhovo, but without success. The Russian Aerospace Forces delivered a series of strikes on the enemy’s rear infrastructure in the vicinity of Sudzha.

rybar

Kursk Direction: AFU Counterattack East of Obukhovka and Advance of Russian Forces in Lyubimovka

Situation as of the end of October 7, 2024

In the Kursk Direction, Russian forces are repelling AFU attacks in the Glushkovo, Korenevo and Sudzha districts. At the same time, the Russian Armed Forces are gradually advancing in Lyubimovka, a key transport hub for the enemy in the north of the Korenevo district.

🔻In the Glushkovo district, there are battles on the approaches to Veseloye. Ukrainian formations are not giving up attempts to physically cut off the 38N-052 highway east of the village, but the enemy’s attacks are being repelled by Russian forces.

🔻In the Korenevo district, Russian troops repelled an attack (https://t.me/frontline_pvt/3181) by an AFU armored group towards Obukhovka. In the battle, the enemy lost one BMP and a group of infantry, while the Russian forces captured the banner of one of the AFU units.

❗️The movement route of enemy units suggests that the neighboring village of Pokrovskoye is currently under the control of Ukrainian formations.

▪️To the north, the Russian Armed Forces have pushed the AFU off several positions on Srednyaya Street in Lyubimovka. At the same time, the “ownership” of the adjacent forest belts along the street remains questionable due to the lack of objective control footage. Also, on the main street of the village, UAV operators destroyed (https://t.me/creamy_caprice/7034) a Roshel Senator armored vehicle abandoned by the enemy crew.

🔻In the Sudzha district, the AFU launched attacks in the area of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Plekhovo, all of which were repelled by the Russian Armed Forces. At the same time, the Russian air force struck the rear infrastructure of the AFU in Sudzha, Kazachya Loknya and Staraya Sorochina.

🔻In the Sumy Region, the Russian Armed Forces destroyed (https://t.me/rian_ru/264280) an enemy ammunition depot located in one of the buildings south of Osoevka. Secondary detonation of the ammunition was also observed at the site.

rybar

Iskander-M missile system eliminates container tanker carrying ammunition in Yuzhny port    

 ðŸ“Novy Belyary, Odessa regions  

The missile got the target during an unloading. The objective control footage shows detonation of the ammunition.   

The ship delivered a batch of ammunition and weapons to the port of Odessa region from Europe.

Last night and in the morning, military facilities on Ukrainian territory were hit by a combined strike. Kinzhals worked on the Kiev region, as well as western regions, such as Khmelnytskyi region. According to preliminary data, the military airfield of Starokonstantinov in Khmelnitsky region, where the remaining air force of the AFU often “sleeps”, has been hit again. 

Military Chronicle 

Last night, after a prolonged period, Ukrainian forces carried out a combined strike on Crimea, using drones and ATACMS missiles.

▪️The Russian air defense forces intercepted twelve Ukrainian drones. Judging by the lack of detailed information about the air defense operation over populated areas of Crimea, the drones were either shot down in the coastal zone or over the sea.

▪️The enemy also used two ATACMS tactical-operational missiles, which were launched from the territory of Kherson Region. The target was the oil depot of JSC “Morskoy Neftyannoy Terminal” in Feodosia, which was hit.

▪️Two explosions were recorded on the territory of the facility, with at least five fuel storage tanks damaged – two of them destroyed. Firefighting is currently ongoing, with significant resources of local emergency services involved.

❗️The Internet is also actively circulating drone footage showing the destruction at the oil depot. It was presumably shot by Emergency Ministry personnel to assess the damage and plan further actions to extinguish the fire.

Its appearance in the public domain once again demonstrates a breach in the information security of local services. How and why the enemy quickly obtained footage of the results of their strike is an open question.

▪️To ensure public safety, the local authorities have blocked Fedko and Geologicheskaya streets, and temporarily suspended train traffic from Feodosia to Vladislavovka. The city is currently under a technogenic emergency regime, with two temporary accommodation points deployed.

At least three people are known to have been injured as a result of the enemy’s attack, with no reports of fatalities. Feodosia also experienced power outages, but there is no information about damage to energy facilities.

🔻The media is spreading false statements about the evacuation of the population in the Feodosia urban district and a possible fuel shortage in Crimea. In fact, the temporary accommodation points currently host no more than two dozen people, and there have been no disruptions in fuel supplies.

❗️Nevertheless, the choice of the oil depot, which is the largest in Crimea, is not accidental. The goal, as in the rest of Russia, is to cause a fuel shortage not only on the peninsula, but also in other regions.

And one cannot forget that today is Vladimir Putin’s birthday. This is a date that the enemy and its curators are trying to carry out large-scale attacks on, as happened a couple of years ago on the Crimean Bridge. So the activation of the AFU in the Black Sea direction today is certainly not the last.

Morning Summary on October 7, 2024

▪️ Overnight, the Russian Armed Forces struck the enemy’s rear areas. Geran UAVs and missile weapons hit Kyiv, Cherkasy, Konotop in Sumy Region, Baturyn in Chernihiv Region, and Synelnykove in Dnipropetrovsk Region.

▪️ The AFU also used strike UAVs. Reports of successful air defense operations in Crimea, Bryansk and Kursk Regions.

▪️ In Kursk Region, in Glushkovo District, there are ongoing clashes, the AFU is not giving up attempts to advance northward. In the south of Sudzha District, the Russian Armed Forces advanced with heavy fighting in the area of the settlement of Plekhovo, repelling one AFU counterattack. On the Korenevo sector, our assault groups continued offensive actions and significantly advanced in the southeastern direction, reports the “North” grouping of forces.

▪️ In Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk), our troops continue to advance in the center along Torgovaya and Rudnichnaya streets and are conducting assault operations towards the “Tsentralna” mine.

▪️ From the Pokrovsk direction, reports come of the advance of the Russian Army westward to Tsukurino. Additionally, there is information about our troops entering Novoselidovo, located southwest. There is information about the liberation of Zhelanne Vtoroye, but no video footage yet. Overall, this development in the southwestern direction indicates the continued collapse of the enemy’s defenses.

▪️ In the South Donetsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are developing their success after the capture of Vuhledar. There is a gradual movement northward towards Bohoyavlenka, fragmentary data on the effective actions of our troops in Zolota Nyva. Constant attacks on Katerynivka (Yekaterynivka) continue.

▪️ On the Zaporizhia front, the Kamianske direction has come into motion. Our assault groups, supported by UAVs, advanced (https://t.me/dva_majors/54541) into the northwestern part of the village of Kamianske.

▪️ In Belgorod Region, the AFU struck Shebekino several times, injuring a woman. In the morning in Shebekino, an FPV drone attacked a production building, a woman with mine-explosive trauma and shrapnel wound to the leg was taken to the hospital. In the village of Kozmodemanivka of the Shebekino urban district, an FPV drone flew into a residential house window. As a result of the attack, a 13-year-old child had scratches on the neck, which the parents treated independently, they refused to call an ambulance. In the village of Yasnyye Zori of the Belgorod district, a drone attacked a multi-apartment building.

▪️ In Donetsk, a man born in 1964 was killed by AFU artillery fire. In Horlivka, a man born in 1943 was killed by the detonation of a previously unexploded cluster submunition. There, a woman born in 1973 was injured as a result of a UAV-dropped IED.

Two Majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_7.html