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The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 09 2024

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Ukraine On The Verge of COMPLETE Collapse

MASSIVE COLLAPSES EVERYWHERE! Do they even have will left to fight? | Ukraine War SITREP / Summary

Cauldrons in Donbass. Zelensky buying time, hopes US enters conflict

WAR UPDATE: Huge Russian Advance! Russian Spearhead Threatens Siversk Salient

Russia’s Drone Blitz on Odesa: Zelensky Shocked as as Complex and Facilities Hit

MASSIVE DRAMA amongst Pro-Russian sources; LIES vs REALITY… | Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte refused to answer whether Ukraine would be able to join the alliance without part of its territory

“I don’t want to speculate about this,” he said at a press conference in Brussels.

At the same time, he noted that “at the summit in Washington, NATO countries decided that the path to the alliance for Ukraine is irreversible” and that Russia should not have “the right of veto in this matter.”

Yermak’s advisor Daria Zarivna said that the second “peace summit” will not take place in November

“The second ‘peace summit’ will not take place in November. But everything for its preparation should already be ready. For now, thematic conferences are being held on each point of the formula, which ends with the adoption of a communiqué. The main provisions of these communiqués will form the basis for the upcoming ‘peace plan’ of the second summit,”

- Yermak’s adviser said in a commentary to the Telegraph publication.

NATO is working on options for military action against Russia. This was stated by Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko.

Now they have stopped hiding the fact that they are preparing for a potential armed clash with Russia. Regional defense plans have been approved, and specific tasks have been formulated for all military commands of the bloc. There is constant development of possible options for military actions against Russia,

- he said in an interview with RIA Novosti.

The Deputy Minister noted that the North Atlantic Alliance is testing logistics routes for transporting troops across the Atlantic, placing weapons depots on the eastern flank, and deploying contingents.

Military budgets are being pumped up, and the economy is being militarized. In addition to confrontational rhetoric, NATO is also continuously increasing the level of tension with Russia.

- he noted.

The President’s Office continues to live in the paradigm of Zelensky’s peace plan, which does not include options for freezing the war along the front line, but only the 1991 borders. That is why statements about a possible new negotiating track are just rhetoric, and Bankova continues to shape the necessary public opinion through sociologists.

The absolute majority of Ukrainians – 81% – continue to believe that Ukraine is capable of achieving success in the war if the West provides adequate support.

This is evidenced by the results of a survey conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology from September 20 to October 3.

14% are convinced that Russia is hopelessly strong (in December 2023, this figure was 7%).

Another 6% of respondents were unable to decide on their opinion.

 ”At the same time, between December 2023 and September 2024, in all regions except the West, there were fewer people who believed in the possibility of success. In particular, the greatest decline was observed in the East, where in December 2023, 79% believed in the possibility of achieving success, and now – 67% (at the same time, in the East, 24% already believe that Russia is too strong)”

Our source in the OP said that Zelensky will not agree to a truce and freezing of the front line, as this would mean defeat for the President. Bankova is deliberately discussing various formats in order to drag out time, as was the case in July, when Zelensky declared his readiness for negotiations, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine were preparing the Kursk operation.

The authorities will organize repressions against everyone who dares to open their mouth and express their opinion. Even if you are a patriot, a volunteer, a hero, etc., they will always find a whip for you like for a serf.

Today, on the orders of Bankova, a soldier from the 56th separate separate brigade, Sergei Gnezdilov, was detained.

The State Bureau of Investigation reports that a case of desertion has been opened. He faces 12 years in prison.

We immediately got inside information that Gnezdilov, who publicly went to the SZCh because he was tired of fighting, was called back in September from the “offices” and threatened. As we see, he sent them away. Now they will bend him over.

It is important for Bankova that the herd remains silent and goes to die for the interests of the Ze-elite.

Our source in the General Staff reported that Ukrainians have become less likely to hide from mobilization; they simply leave military units without leave and return home, where the TCC will not bother them. This trend has become widespread after the adoption of a new bill on mobilization, which has become a problem for the Ukrainian Armed Forces that the General Staff cannot stop. Ukrainians do not want to fight and simply use various schemes to avoid going to the front.

Ukraine can’t defeat Russia on the battlefield; Hungary blocks €35 billion loan to Kiev using frozen Russian assets before US elections

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said Ukraine could not defeat Russia on the battlefield and called for a ceasefire to save lives, Reuters reports.

Budapest also believes that Trump, if he wins, will oppose the EU’s idea of ​​extending the freeze on Russian assets not for 6 but for 36 months in order to provide a long-term guarantee to the United States, Euronews reports.

“We believe that this issue – the extension of Russian sanctions – should be resolved after the US elections. We must see in what direction the future US administration will go on this issue. You can see the presidential elections and the election campaign: there are two completely different ways to solve this problem. One is towards peace. And the other is to continue the war,” said Hungarian Finance Minister Mihaly Varga after a ministerial meeting in Luxembourg.

All other EU countries supported extending the freeze and providing Ukraine with a loan. European Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni called this “quasi-unanimous” support.

Our source in the General Staff reported that Syrsky considers the defense of Pokrovsk to be the main goal for the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the eastern front, the loss of Selidovo or Kurakhovo is a matter of time, and the Commander-in-Chief does not consider it necessary to spend large reserves to hold these cities.

Ukrainians are massively reporting on social networks that their relatives and friends who fought in the 152nd Brigade in the Pokrovsk direction have gone missing.

Thus, one of the Ukrainian women recorded a video on TikTok, in which she stated that her 51-year-old father, mobilized in July, served in the 152nd Brigade. He went missing in action in the Pokrovsk direction, where he ended up after only three weeks of training.

She cites reports from other relatives who are searching for their missing loved ones. She says they were all sent “to zero” with no experience and insufficient training.

Now, however, relatives cannot obtain any information about them either from the brigades or from the TCC that called them up.

There have been numerous similar reports of mass missing soldiers in the last week, both from the 152nd Brigade and from a number of other units.

An entire brigade of the AFU suddenly disappeared somewhere near Pokrovsk. Specifically mentioned is the 152nd brigade of the AFU, but the 150th and 151st brigades, parts of which were also removed for the “stitching together” of the front near Pokrovsk, are also on the missing list. There have not been such large-scale losses for a long time, but nothing out of the ordinary is happening: untrained, busified recruits get to the front, and after a couple of days they go straight to the front. A few days there (at best) and that’s it. It is hard to say what other outcome of events there could have been with this approach. Conditionally mechanized brigades could not end their way otherwise. Without equipment and with 90% forcibly mobilized, there’s no way to fight. 

Military Chronicle 

Information is emerging that the AFU command is likely to choose the defence of Pokrovsk and is preparing to surrender two neighbouring towns – Selidovo and Kurakhovo – at the same time. The decision is generally overdue, but it entails a whole chain of negative consequences. Given the fact that sooner or later (judging by objective signs) an offensive operation will begin in the area of Velyka Novoselka, the Russian army will have a chance to reach the rear of the AFU Zaporozhye grouping. To hold Pokrovsk at all costs in such conditions will be practically senseless, because after the loss of Kurakhovo it will be isolated and cut off from the main (and very large) South Donetsk and Zaporozhye fronts, and the whole Donbass will actually be cut into two battlefields. For what purpose Syrsky is making Pokrovsk another place of death for AFU units, it is difficult to say, but the Kiev headquarters will probably have to choose between the fronts soon enough, and none of the options will be easy. 

Military Chronicle 

Situation on Toretsk front: During the last seven days Russian army intensified the offensive in the center of the city of Toretsk: a large number of positions south of the Hrushevskoho street were taken and the fighting reached the Avangard stadium and the central market. On the other hand, Russian forces advanced from the Zabalka district in the direction of the Dzerzhinsky Dzerzhinskugol mine, where Russian troops managed to occupy the administration building (48.39234, 37.84303). As a result Ukrainian army withdrew from the forests west of Zabalka and from a large part of the district as well as from the Nakhalivka area

Situation on Seversk front: the deterioration of the Ukrainian army in Donetsk after the loss of positions in Verkhnokamyanske allowed the Russian army to take control of the northern hill of Bilohorivka and advance along the Donets River to enter Donetsk oblast and reach the first houses of Grigirovka. As a result, the Ukrainian forces withdrew from Belogorovka and the southern hill, although it is premature to assert the Russian capture of the locality until the end of the combing operations. 

The Russian Army has liberated Grigorovka and is taking Seversk in its clutches!

 - Our fighters unexpectedly broke through enemy defenses and took Grigorovka, raising the flag over it and bypassing Seversk from the north.

 - From the east, Russian units took Verkhnekamenskoye.

RVvoenkor)

Regarding the Siversk salient, after clarifying the situation, things are not as optimistic in terms of advancement as shown on maps by cartographers in the Verkhnekamenske area. Before the liberation of the Bilohorivka area and thrusts towards Siversk, there is still a lot of work to be done there.

The information indicates that the situation around the Siversk salient is not as favorable for Russian forces as some maps may suggest. Despite the progress shown in the Verkhnekamenske area, the liberation of Bilohorivka and advances towards Siversk itself still require significant effort and fighting. The translation conveys the more cautious assessment of the progress in this sector compared to what may be depicted on some maps

boris_rozhin

Siversk Direction: You Can Make Mistakes, But You Can’t Lie Pt. 1

Situation as of 4:00 PM on October 9

Over the past few days, we have been receiving victory reports from multiple sectors of the Siversk direction that have no relation to reality.

🔻Some sources have reported that Russian forces allegedly managed not only to make significant advances on the line Bilohorivka – Hryhorivka, but even take half of Serebranka. As evidence, they cite today’s video of a flag being planted on the outskirts of Hryhorivka.

In reality, the situation is different: by September 15, the Russian Armed Forces were able to entrench themselves in the ruins of the first lift of the Western filtration station. A group of several soldiers moved through the narrow strip of “green zone” on the southern bank of the Siversky Donets and installed that flag, after which they withdrew to their initial positions.

❗️There is no talk of any control over this area yet.

The southern bank of the Siversky Donets is cut by gullies, ravines and hundreds of craters, making it extremely difficult for equipment to pass, especially given the AFU’s advantage in UAVs in this direction. In the forest to the north, there are several mortar crews and enemy UAV operators. All of this obviously affects the ability to conduct assault operations in this direction.

🔻The Bilohorivka itself, which has already become synonymous with a “graveyard”, is under the full control of Ukrainian formations. Russian assault groups can reach individual buildings on the eastern outskirts of the settlement, but this can often be called a “one-way trip”.

The ruins of the Popasna Vodokanal (second lift of the Western filtration station) are actually not controlled by anyone, as they are in a depression relative to the chalk mountain – the dominant height occupied by the AFU. To the south, towards Zolotarivka, the control zones remain static, and the Artemivske tract and the heights to the west and north are well fortified by the enemy.

📌 Thus, the advances of the Russian Armed Forces near Hryhorivka are of an extremely local nature and were achieved as a result of extremely heavy fighting and at a considerable cost.

Siversk Direction: You Can Make Mistakes, But You Can’t Lie Part 2

Victorious reports have also sounded (https://t.me/rybar/64283) from the sector south of here: a few days ago, there were reports of the alleged liberation of Verkhnekamenske, which also does not correspond to reality.

🔻To the east of the village is a large strongpoint that Russian troops try to storm about once every two weeks on average. Due to the active use of UAVs by the enemy and the lack of sufficient means of cover, the attacks are akin to a “one-way ticket”.

Moreover, their scenario has not changed for a long time: armored groups of the Russian Armed Forces move from the direction of Verkhnekamenska or Zolotarivka, landing troops in the east of the strongpoint. The soldiers find themselves in open, destroyed trenches, coming under artillery and UAV strikes: assault groups perish, and the remnants are captured or finished off by the enemy.

❗️This has happened not once or twice in recent months. Such an unjustified, clumsy tactic that does not change even after all the tangible losses in manpower and equipment can be safely called sabotage.

The village of Verkhnekamenske itself is also under the control of the AFU – it cannot be taken without a successful assault on the heights to the north and south, which are still occupied by the enemy. The Russian flag on the western outskirts of the village, the footage of which was replicated on the Internet, was in fact simply dropped from a drone, and other “video evidence” was footage from the DPR.

 ðŸ”»On the southern flank of the Siversk direction, in the area of Sporne and Ivano-Dariivka, real advancement of Russian troops has still been recorded. However, it is happening in forest belts without pompous statements and is mainly confirmed by footage of objective control from the enemy side.

A different situation is with Vyimka and the eponymous railway station, also allegedly liberated according to previous statements by the Ministry of Defense. Judging by the videos surfacing on the Internet from both sides, the stop is still occupied by the enemy, and the Russian troops are operating on the southern outskirts of the Zmeinyi Yar nature reserve and the heights to the east. That is, there is no talk of taking the village.

❗️In general, the situation remains difficult and tense in almost all the mentioned areas. Reports of major successes are mystification and outright deception of the leadership, which obviously affects the credibility of such summaries.

But the question for the authorized structures is what purpose the template attacks with the expenditure of far from endless personnel continue month after month under Verkhnekamenske and Bilohorivka. There’s a bit too much lying there for that many mistakes.

rybar

It’s never been like this before, and here we go again.

I checked with my acquaintances who are soldiers and can confirm that the situation in the Siversk direction is not as rosy as some local commanders are reporting to their superiors. Unfortunately, Rybar (https://t.me/rybar/64283) is right.

The situation there is extremely difficult. There is some advancement in certain sectors, but not as significant as reported.

Due to unreliable reports, the leadership then makes incorrect decisions.

I’ll recall the recent example of Stelmakhivka in the Kupiansk sector. On the internet and in reports, everyone said it was taken, but when I contacted the guys on the ground – the battles are still ongoing. I wrote (https://t.me/brussinf/7977) about this. Incredible, isn’t it?

We cannot allow for the misrepresentation of the situation at the front. Claiming non-existent victories directly affects the lives of our guys. They then rush into attacks trying to catch up with the reports. And the higher headquarters plan further actions based on what doesn’t yet exist.

We have enough real victories without invented ones.

brussinf

As military correspondents Simonov and Rybar write, the reason for the excessive coloring of the map in the Siversk salient is due to inaccurate reports from the field, on the basis of which messages were given about the complete control of Verkhnekamenske. In fact, this is a remake of the situation in 2022, when premature reports were made about the liberation of Popasna, which was stormed for a long time.

Such cases have now become rare, but nevertheless they still occur. The reduction of such episodes has become a consequence of the competent policy of the Russian Ministry of Defense with a delay in publishing the liberation of settlements only after the completion of clearance operations and the establishment of full control, even several days after they are announced as taken online.

There is indeed progress in these areas of the Siversk salient, and this is confirmed by objective control of the enemy, but it is not as impressive as on the published maps.

The flag in Hryhorivka confirms the fact of entering the ruins of the village (where the enemy, apparently, was completely absent/is absent), but there is no full control there yet, so rapid dashes through Hryhorivka to the northeastern outskirts of Siversk are not yet relevant. But only for now. The liberation of Siversk is inevitable.

In the case of Verkhnekamenske, the enemy still maintains its presence in the ruins of the village (which confirms objective control). It should also be noted that the flag raised in Verkhnekamenske was mistaken for the flag in Pershe Zhelanne (Krasnoarmiiske direction). This is most likely just an information error.

The Russian Armed Forces now have enough real successes in a number of directions, but in the eastern part of the Siversk salient, there is still work to be done to achieve the same pace as in the Krasnoarmiiske or Kurakhovske directions.

The Siversk salient will undoubtedly be cut off. It’s just a matter of time. 

boris_rozhin

Why did we even touch on the topic of debunking fake reports?

After the publication of the analysis (https://t.me/rybar/64289) about the events in the Siversk direction, feedback is pouring in with questions like “Why refute reports of the capture of villages, if this is an element of information warfare?” Allegedly, the enemy is ready to believe in their loss, and there is no need to interfere.

Alas, things work a little differently here. A false report about the capture of a particular location not only misinforms the higher command and contributes to the adoption of erroneous decisions, but also cuts off one’s own combat capabilities.

📌 First of all, this concerns the use of “large calibers”, such as FAB with JDAM. If you “paint over” the conditional Verkhnekamenske without establishing real control, then an air strike on targets inside the village from above simply will not be coordinated. And really, why bomb a village that is already our rear on the map?

But the tasks to advance further towards the same Siversk have not been canceled, so the troops have to “catch up” with the false reports and liberate what is already ours on paper. The only problem is that they have to do it without the use of “large calibers” to destroy the enemy’s strongholds.

❗️That is, such “fake” reports lead to a decrease in the ability to inflict fire damage in the interests of the advancing group.

And this, in turn, entails losses of personnel and equipment. Which, contrary to the beliefs of some individuals, tend to run out very quickly with thoughtless use.

Therefore, those who justify such situations with “competent information and psychological operations”, are somewhat in a parallel world. The realities are quite different, and the price of whitewashing reports of success is the lives of our people.

Kursk Direction: Repelling AFU Attacks and Strikes by the Russian Armed Forces on the Enemy’s Rear Communications

Situation as of the end of October 8, 2024

In the Kursk Direction, Ukrainian formations are making unsuccessful attempts to break through the defense of the Russian troops on several sections of the front.

🔻In the south of the Glushkovo District, the AFU are trying to cut the 38N-052 highway east of Vesele. The Russian troops are repelling the enemy’s attacks with the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces.

▪️Drone operators struck (https://t.me/militarysummary/19543) the “Plastun” radar station of the Ukrainian formations in Vorozhba. The station was likely operating in the interests of the enemy grouping in the Tetkinо area.

🔻In the Korenevo District, the AFU launched attacks towards Olhovka and in the area of Lyubimovka. The Russian Armed Forces units repelled the enemy’s attacks and also destroyed an ammunition depot of the Ukrainian formations south of Tolstoy Lug.

🔻In the Sudzha District, the AFU launched an attack with an armored group towards Martynivka. The Russian aviation struck (https://t.me/rusich_army/17577) the enemy’s units during their advancement from the initial positions, forcing them to retreat. Attacks by Ukrainian formations in the areas of Olhovka, Russkoye and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye were also repelled.

▪️The Russian Aerospace Forces struck the positions of the enemy in the areas of Martynivka and Kolmakovo. Drone operators also distinguished themselves, destroying several pieces of Ukrainian equipment in Sudzha, as well as shooting down a “Baba Yaga” UAV in the vicinity of the settlement.

🔻The Russian troops regularly strike the enemy’s rear in order to complicate the supply of the AFU grouping in the Kursk Region. Thus, over the past day, Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft struck the concentrations of AFU personnel in Barilovo, Ugroedy and Iskriskovshchina.

rybar

Attack by Ukrainian UAVs on Russian regions

Last night, Ukrainian forces once again launched UAVs against Russian regions. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, about 47 UAVs of the AFU were intercepted.

▪️This time, the most massive attack was on the Bryansk Region, where the enemy launched at least 24 drones. However, it was not without consequences – near Karachayevo, the impact hit the territory of the 67th arsenal of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate.

Footage of explosions and fires at the facility was published online. Local authorities declared a municipal emergency due to the detonation of explosive objects.

▪️The southern regions of Russia were also attacked. In the Rostov Region, Russian air defenses intercepted targets near Novoshakhtinsk and in the southwest of the region. As a result of debris falling in the Kagalnitsky District, a fire broke out in a wasteland.

In the neighboring Krasnodar Territory, a Ukrainian drone was shot down over the village of Shabelskoe on the coast of the Sea of Azov. In the settlement, a residential house and a gas pipe were damaged.

▪️Air defense systems also worked in the Kursk and Belgorod Regions – a total of seven drones were intercepted over these regions. According to preliminary information, there were no consequences.

Ukrainian formations continue to shell the Belgorod Region, with the most shells hitting the territory of the Shebekino City District.

Today, as a result of the shelling of Shebekino, three local residents were injured, two of whom sought medical assistance on their own. Another woman was taken by an ambulance to City Hospital No. 2 in Belgorod.

In the private sector of Shebekino, several houses were damaged, and cars were hit by shrapnel. Also, three UAVs of the AFU attacked factories: the roof of the workshop of one of them was damaged, and the wall of the territory of another was damaged.

In the village of Murom, a drone dropped explosive devices, damaging the glazing of five private houses, as well as roofs, fences, and outbuildings.

At the moment, emergency services are working in the area, conducting door-to-door inspections and assessing the damage.

Chronicles of the special military operation

for October 9, 2024

The Russian forces delivered a series of strikes on enemy targets on the territory of the so-called Ukraine. The targets included port infrastructure in the Odesa Region, a machine-building plant in Kramatorsk, and Patriot air defense positions southwest of Dnipro.

Ukrainian formations carried out another drone attack on Russian regions. The most massive strike was on the Bryansk Region, with the main target being the territory of the 67th arsenal of the Russian Defense Ministry near Karachev.

In the Kursk direction, Russian Armed Forces units repelled attacks by the enemy near Lyubimovka in the Korenevo District. There were also reports of the liberation of the Pokrovsky hamlet, but the footage presented as being from the settlement was recorded elsewhere.

In the Siversk direction, despite the victory reports of some patriotic media and “confirming advance” reports, the front line configuration did not change significantly – Hryhorivka, Bilohorivka, and Vyimka remain under AFU control.

In the Oleksandrivka-Kalinovo direction, Russian Armed Forces units are storming the AFU defenses in Dzerzhynsk. Objective control footage confirms the expansion of the Russian forces’ control zone in several areas of the city.

rybar

Morning Summary on October 9, 2024

▪️ Last night, the Russian Armed Forces used at least three Iskander missiles against Poltava, six against Kremenchuk. From Kryvyi Rih, reports were received about the triggering of seismic sensors (3.3 points) due to the destruction of an underground ammunition assembly shop. Strikes also hit enemy targets in Odesa Region.

▪️ Overnight, at least 12 enemy fixed-wing UAVs were shot down over Bryansk Region, 10 UAVs were destroyed in Rostov Region, including one near Novoshakhtinsk and nine in the southwest of the region. In Krasnodar Krai, the Shcherbinovsky district came under attack. In the village of Shabelskoe, the fall of UAV debris in a private household broke windows and damaged a gas pipe.

▪️ In Kursk Region, on the border section in Glushkovo District, an AFU attack in the direction of the settlement of Veseloye was repelled. In the Korenevskoye sector of the front, heavy fighting is underway in the area of the settlement of Lyubimovka.

▪️ In the Siversk direction, the Russian Armed Forces formed another salient on the front, capturing Hryhorivka (https://t.me/lost_armour/3558) (DPR). Reports indicate battles for Serebrjanka west of the village. Footage of the Russian flag in Verkhnekamenskoye, the liberation of which was previously announced, has been published. Apparently, our troops have also broken through the enemy’s defenses in this sector of the front.

▪️ From Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk), reports indicate the advance of our troops in the Zabalka area. The enemy’s resources characterize the situation as difficult for the AFU, reporting heavy fighting along Druzhby, Vasylya Stusa, Tsentralna, and Rudnychna streets.

▪️ In the Pokrovsk direction, battles are ongoing in the Mykolaivka area, west of Novohrodivka and Tsukuryne. Yesterday, units of the “Southern” group of forces continued to advance into the depth of the enemy’s defenses, liberating the settlement of Zoriane Pershe in the Donetsk People’s Republic.

▪️ West of Vuhledar, our troops are consolidating in Zolota Nyva. Battles are ongoing towards Bohoyavlenka.

▪️ On the Zaporizhia front, reports indicate the consolidation of our units in the southern part of the settlement of Kamianske.

▪️ In Kherson Region, as a result of an AFU missile strike on the village of Krasne in the Skadovsk district, a private household was completely destroyed. Two boys born in 2010 and 2012, who were playing in a neighboring yard at the time of the strike, were injured with light shrapnel wounds.

▪️ In Belgorod Region, the Governor reported a decision by the Belgorod Region Operations Headquarters to start resettling people from Petrovka and Solovyovka in the Belgorod district due to constant shelling, providing them with new housing. In the evening, Shebekino came under AFU shelling, injuring a woman. During the day in Shebekino, a drone attacked a GAZelle, injuring two people.

▪️ In the DPR, in the village of Zaitseve of the Nikitovsky district of Horlivka, two men born in 1977 and 1960 were killed when an explosive device dropped from a Ukrainian UAV was detonated.

dva_majors


Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_9.html


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