The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 21 2024
Ukraine Cracks Down on Citizens Fleeing War and Opposing Draft, Zelensky’s Final Warning?
Zaluzhny signals, war is lost
UKRAINE BURNS while Lloyd Austin fiddles
Lloyd Austin Announces A $400 Million Aid Package For Ukraine During Visit To Kyiv
Our source in the OP said that Andrey Yermak is working on Syrsky’s resignation for the collapse of the front and the failure of the Kursk operation, while Bankova wants to make the Commander-in-Chief the scapegoat for the situation at the front. The President’s Office has already begun to form a list of actors who can replace Syrsky in his position.
Our source reports that former commander-in-chief Zaluzhny is being prepared for a political career.
It is he who is considered by many Western lobbies as an alternative character to replace Zelensky, which Yermak does not like at all, and even wants to remove him from the post of ambassador, but even the British intelligence services from MI6 are against it. This stops Yermak from any kind of provocation against Zaluzhny for now.
Ukraine could accept a peace agreement and give up part of its territory to Russia, — Zaluzhny
”I didn’t mention territory. I talked about security, safety and the feeling of being in your own home… If I lived in my own home and I knew my neighbor had appropriated part of my garden, I would say we need to resolve this issue. If not now, our children will have to resolve it,”
Zaluzhny answering the Telegraph’s question whether he could imagine victory without returning all the lost territory.
Lt Mykytenko noted they want an end to the war, as the troops are tired and there is no hope of victory now “because a lot of warriors are dead, missing and injured.” She notes the motivation in 2022 is now gone.
Our source in the OP said that the West is ready to allocate new military and financial aid to Ukraine if Zelensky lowers the mobilization age to 18. The President’s Office is ready for a gradual change in legislation, first to 21, and then from 18, but partners insist on the need for radical measures. This is precisely what is behind the delays in financial aid and the constant bargaining with partners who set conditions for Ukraine, but do not fulfill the agreements already agreed upon.
The DPRK flag is hoisted on a spoil heap near the recently liberated Tsukurino on the Pokrovsky Front.
Our fighters caused hysteria of the enemy with their actions.
Let’s dive one more time into the amazing world of european press…
South Korea, one of the most militarily powerful countries in the world, could become Putin’s new enemy – Bild
Russia’s use of North Korean troops in the war against Ukraine could be a “huge mistake” on the part of the Russian president, Bild columnist Albert Link said.
Link notes that the South Korean Foreign Ministry has already summoned the Russian ambassador to Seoul, protesting the alleged dispatch of North Korean troops to participate in the SMO against Ukraine. According to him, Putin could thus gain another powerful adversary in the form of South Korea:
“A terrifying scenario for Putin: South Korea, which has so far supported Ukraine only with humanitarian aid and helmets, reacts to Kim Jong-un’s entry into the war by sending Ukraine weapons. Tiny South Korea (only slightly larger than Austria) is one of the world’s largest armies, with about 3.6 million soldiers (500,000 active, 3.1 million in reserve).”
The “expert” added that South Korea, which uses NATO-standard weapons, has a thriving defense industry, as the government plans to become the fourth-largest arms exporter by 2027. The top three positions are occupied by the United States, Russia, and France.
“If South Korea decides to support Ukraine with weapons, then, according to experts, this will have a huge impact on the course of the war,”
- Link writes.
Transfer of North Koreans to the North Korean War zone: truth or fiction?
So far, the story looks like a set of fictitious facts, but it would be useful to understand what is happening, since if the transfer is confirmed, the degree of influence of infantry from the DPRK on the fighting could be, to put it mildly, unpredictable.
Who reported the transfer of DPRK soldiers to Ukraine?
Initially, a number of Western media outlets, including the British newspaper (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/10/north-korea-engineers-deployed-russia-ukraine) The Guardian, reported on the intention to transfer DPRK soldiers to Ukraine. A week later, when the news was practically everywhere, Volodymyr Zelensky reported (https://www.golosameriki.com/a/ukraine-calls-for-sanctions-over-alleged-north-korean-involvement-in-war/7825833.html) it. Some time later, the head of the GUR, Budanov, announced the transfer of DPRK troops and their preparation for battles in Ukraine. According (https://hromadske.ua/ru/voyna/233101-voennye-iz-kndr-budut-gotovy-voevat-protiv-ukrainy-s-noyabrya-nekotoryh-otpravyat-v-kurskuyu-oblast-budanov) to him, the North Koreans will be ready to fight by November, when they undergo a special training course. On October 18, the National Intelligence Service of South Korea (NIS) published its “report” on the transfer of DPRK troops to the SMO zone. According to the intelligence service, the first batch of Korean special forces soldiers included 1.5 thousand special forces, and their transfer was carried out on four landing ships, accompanied by three frigates of the Pacific Fleet. Satellite images of alleged special forces training in the presence of Kim Jong-un, as well as radar portraits of ships on which Koreans were allegedly taken out to fight, are cited as evidence.
Is the transfer of Koreans true or a myth?
On the one hand, the whole story looks stupid. According to NIS, to maintain secrecy, the North Koreans were allegedly provided with documents of Buryats and Yakuts as the most suitable peoples of Russia in appearance. In order to “mix” the North Koreans with Russian soldiers, the infantry from the DPRK was allegedly enrolled in a “special Buryat battalion” based at the 11th Airborne Assault Brigade from Ulan-Ude. At the same time, a video went viral with alleged training of DPRK soldiers at the Sergeevsky training ground in Primorsky Krai, 35 km from the border of the Russian Federation and the DPRK, although it is impossible to distinguish between Buryats, Yakuts and North Koreans in it.
On the other hand, the transfer of soldiers from the DPRK is rational and may well help the Russian army to finish the SMO faster. Volunteers from other countries are indeed fighting on the side of Russia in the SMO zone, and units from North Korea would not look foreign there, and given that the Korean infantry for the most part has good basic military training, they could be used in combat relatively quickly.
For the DPRK itself, participation in the SMO would be useful, since the country is constantly under threat of a serious land clash with South Korea, and the experience of combat operations in the SMO would be useful to both the line infantry and the officer corps of the North Korean army.
Questions that have no answers
There will be many of them, and not all of them fit with the version being spread by Ukrainian and Western media.
Why did the Korean soldiers have to be evacuated by sea instead of sent by train, if the Russian border and the nearest training ground are only 35 km away?
Why does the DPRK group only consist of 12 thousand people, and not 120 thousand?
Budanov reported that the DPRK troops will use Russian equipment and ammunition.
What is the purpose of the story with the Koreans?
Most likely, all the noise about the DPRK’s participation in the SMO on Russia’s side is needed to revive foreign military aid to Ukraine. Lately, less and less money and weapons have been sent, and this could soon lead to real problems on the battlefield. Western countries cannot allow this, so they are taking various steps to support Kiev. It remains to add that if the story about the DPRK army being transferred to Ukraine turns out to be true, then we can expect that other countries of the Global South, such as China, Indonesia and India, will also want to improve their own combat experience.
The end of the war in Ukraine is expected at the end of 2025 — IMF updated forecast
In the updated baseline scenario , the war ends in late 2025 and mid-2026 in the worst case , which would have a strong drag on growth. Reflecting the effects of a protracted war, the macroeconomic outlook has been revised downwards overall. Risks are exceptionally high due to the protracted nature of the war, the vulnerability of the energy sector, and the longevity of international support.
▪️The West is distracted by the Middle East wars. “Fewer US weapons are available to send to Kiev, and the attention of leaders is overwhelmingly focused on Israel/Iran”
▪️Aid from Russia’s allies is growing, while Western support is declining. In response to the “victory plan,” Zelensky received “supportive rhetoric, but little else”.
▪️The Kursk operation, with which Kiev tried to turn the tide, turned out to be “a road to nowhere.”
▪️“The best guarantee of Ukraine’s security would be NATO membership. However, this remains extremely unlikely”
▪️And while the Russians may not be able to conquer Ukraine, they can “keep it in such a state that no sane person would want to live or invest in it. That’s a real prospect.”
▪️The conclusions of the propaganda article propose changing this by “dramatically increasing arms supplies and financial aid to Kiev”.
▪️General Christopher Cavoli notes, “I am confident that regardless of the outcome of the war, the Russian army will become more powerful.”
“Russia suffered losses in Ukraine, quite heavy losses. But the Russian armed forces are studying, improving and implementing the experience of the war. At the end of the war in Ukraine, no matter how it looks, the Russian army will be stronger than it is today. These forces will be on the border of our alliance. They are commanded by the same people who already see us as enemies and will then be very unhappy with how the war went. So we will have an adversary with real skills, a lot of troops and clear intentions,”
- Cavoli
▪️Cavoli called on NATO to prepare for a future threat, as Russia will remain an adversary with serious military potential and “clear intentions.”
This desire is due to the general’s deep conviction that Russia will emerge from the conflict in Ukraine strong and “on the NATO border,” in his words, “will be an adversary with real skills, masses of troops and clear intentions.” He called for the largest rearmament program for NATO forces since the end of the Cold War to begin as soon as possible.
Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin arrived in Kiev on an unannounced visit – WSJ
- The publication reports that he arrived “with a message of strong U.S. commitment to Ukraine’s military efforts, but no new military aid or authorization to use long-range missiles inside Russia.”
- Earlier, Ukrainian authorities said they expected a U.S. delegation to arrive to discuss Zelensky’s “victory plan.”
The political reality is that the points in Zelensky’s “victory plan” are facing strong resistance in many key Western capitals, each of which is influenced by different and even contradictory geopolitical calculations, the newspaper writes.
According to El País Ukraine is suffering greatly on the battlefield and unless it receives more support from the West, not only will it be unable to continue to repel the Russian invasion, but it will not even be able to participate in peace talks.
They also claim Putin expects Donald Trump to win the US election next month because he understands that this would make things much more difficult for Ukraine, as Trump promises to cut support for Zelensky.
Kursk Direction: Use of AFU Abrams Tank in Novoivanovka
Situation as of the end of October 21, 2024
In the Kursk direction, clashes continue in several areas where Ukrainian formations are trying to consolidate on Russian territory.
▪️In the Glushkovo district, no significant changes were recorded over the past day, with fighting continuing in the vicinity of the village of Novy Put. Russian troops are clearing the previously liberated territory, pushing Ukrainian formations further south, towards the Sumy Region. The Russian Armed Forces continue to fire on AFU positions in the border zone – in Pavlovka, a group of Ukrainian infantry was hit by a Russian drone strike.
▪️In the Korenevo district, AFU groups that were semi-encircled in the Tolsty Lug area are trying to break out along the Zeleny Shlyakh – Nizhny Klyn line. Meanwhile, to the north, Ukrainian formations on armored vehicles broke through to Novoivanovka and drove along the central street of the settlement, firing at residential buildings from an M1A1SA Abrams tank and an M2A2 Bradley IFV. This is the first recorded case of the use of American-made M1A1SA Abrams in the Kursk region.
▪️In the Sudzha district, footage from objective control allowed to clarify the configuration of the front line near Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, where a drone strike was carried out on the AFU’s forward positions. In the central part of the temporarily occupied territory of the district, Russian drones struck an enemy artillery crew in Zazulevka, and the “Inokhodets” UAV hit the position of the “Nota” EW system, camouflaged in the forest belt on the outskirts of Zaoleshanka, which merges territorially with the district center.
In addition, in the area of the village of Kolmakov, servicemen of the 11th Airborne Brigade destroyed an AFU robot with a 50-caliber Browning machine gun, which was rolling out onto the road leading to Makhnovka.
In recent weeks, there have been more and more cases of mass deaths of FPV units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The bulk of the Ukrainian army units are dying in the Pokrovsk area, near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), and also on the Kupyansk-Kremennaya line. The circumstances of death for each individual crew are different, but they are united by one important circumstance: proximity to the front line. Most of the crews died one or two kilometers from the front line, rarely when this distance is greater. Either FPV drone operators are massively sent into assaults due to large losses, or due to the lack of artillery (the reason is still unclear), the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to use drones as a substitute for howitzers. The latter seems most likely, since for maximum range of drone use, operators are increasingly being transferred as close to the front line as possible.
Donetsk Direction: Battles near Maksymilianivka and in Zoriane, Liberation of Zhelanne Druhe
Situation as of the end of the day on October 21, 2024
After the recent liberation of Maksymilianivka west of Donetsk, the Russian Armed Forces did not stop at their achieved successes and continued the offensive on several sections of the front.
▪️A local collapse of the enemy’s defense was recorded in the Tsukuryne – Hirnyk – Zhelanne Druhe area. Russian troops have finally cleared the fields northwest of Krasnohorivka. In addition, the enemy was recently driven out of Zhelanne Druhe and Sofiyivka.
🔻Today, there are reports that assault groups are already engaged in battles in Zoriane. The troops crossed the crossing on the Volchya River and entered (https://t.me/nm_dnr/12847) the village from the southeast. After that, the Russian infantry moved north and entrenched in the area of the school, near which they raised the flag. There is no information yet about the entry of the Russian Armed Forces into the western part of the village. The buildings of the village council and the House of Culture, for which the Ukrainian formations may try to cling, are located near the school.
▪️Northwest, assault groups advanced along the railway from the Tsukurynska Coal Preparation Plant towards Hirnyk. At the moment, clashes are taking place on the northwestern and northeastern outskirts of the settlement. Several streets have already come under the control of the Russian troops.
▪️To the south, the Russian Armed Forces continue to break through the enemy’s defenses towards Kurakhove. Russian assault troops have raised the flag in the “Energetik” dacha settlement, which is part of the administrative borders of the city.
▪️Simultaneously with this, the Russian troops achieved significant success near the N-15 highway. They managed to straighten out the front line south of Maksymilianivka along the highway, securing the flanks from possible counterattacks by the enemy. Advancement in this area will be through completely open and exposed terrain, which the Ukrainian formations are trying to take advantage of, including by using German Leopard 2A4 tanks.
21-10-2024 21.00 Moscow time. – Selidovo
Assault units of the Russian Armed Forces stormed the spoil heap and the territory of the Korotchenkov mine on the western outskirts of the town, continue to cover Selidovo in pincers.
There is an assault on the AFU stronghold in the village of Vishnevoye, as well as in the area of the intersection of the highway to Pokrovsk and the entrance to the city – this is a key road for the AFU, on which they carry out logistics. The highway to Vishnevoye was cut today.
At the same time, the enemy grouping in the city is not going to surrender. They ignored the ultimatum to surrender. Combat work of the RF Armed Forces continues. The Russian Air Forces are working on the high-rise building of the city.
The town is located right between Kurakhovka and Zoryanoye, which was taken by the 110th brigade of the Russian Armed Forces the previous day. As expected, the AFU units, which had miraculously survived after leaving the fire sack at Nevelskoye, did not have time to rest, recover and receive reinforcements and almost immediately fell under the attack of the advancing group of the RF Armed Forces.
The fighting is nevertheless heavy, but gradually the front line is being pushed westward.
Chronicles of the special military operation
The Russian forces delivered missile strikes on fuel and energy facilities in Odesa and on AFU air defense systems in Kryvyi Rih. Strike drones again attacked military facilities and energy infrastructure of the enemy in Kyiv, Poltava and Sumy Regions.
In the Donetsk direction, the Russian forces are fighting in Hirnyk and Zoriane, and are also advancing towards Kurakhove and along the N-15 highway south of Maksymilianivka.
In the Pokrovsk direction, there are battles on the western outskirts of Selidovo in the private sector near the Korotchenko mine dump, at the foot of which the assault troops managed to entrench themselves.
In the South Donetsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are fighting in the center of the settlement of Katerynivka, while simultaneously advancing in the Solenenka gully to the south.
rybar
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Morning Summary on October 21, 2024
▪️ In the Kursk Region, our troops are advancing in the area of the settlement of Olhovka. Clearing operations continue in the forest areas, destroying scattered enemy groups. From the direction of Kruhlenkyi and the settlement of Nikolskyi, the AFU committed newly arrived reserves, launching a counterattack with up to two company-tactical groups on 10 armored vehicles, supported by tanks. They were hit by MLRS fire, and our marine units engaged in combat. In the area of the settlement of Plekhovo, our units are clearing the area, destroying small enemy infantry groups, several enemy soldiers have been captured. In the Glushkovo District, near the settlement of Volfino, another attempt by an AFU sabotage and reconnaissance group of up to 8 people to breach the border was thwarted, the enemy was destroyed by drone strikes and artillery fire. There were reports of the success of our troops in the settlement of Kolmakov, about 7 km from Sudzha. Our aviation is actively working (https://t.me/dva_majors/55512).
▪️ In the Kupiansk direction, the Russian Army is advancing with heavy fighting in Kruhlenkivka, also expanding the control zone around the settlement.
▪️ South of Chasiv Yar, our troops are breaking through along the T-0504 highway towards the settlement of Stupochky. An important salient in the enemy’s defense is noticeable on the map. Airborne troops continue the assault on the city itself.
▪️ In Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk), a gradual advance of our troops is noted. The battles are for every house.
▪️ In the Pokrovsk direction, battles are ongoing in the eastern part of Selidovo and around the city, which the Russian Armed Forces are trying to encircle, reporting the only remaining supply road for the enemy, which is under fire control of our troops. In the northern part of Hornyak, our forces have advanced in the built-up area.
▪️ In the South Donetsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are moving west from Maksymilianivka towards Kurakhove, an important AFU defense hub.
▪️ Moving from Vuhledar and Vodyane, our troops are approaching Bohoyavlenka, near which, according to reports from Far Eastern warriors, the enemy has built a fortified area, hoping to hold back the onslaught of the Russian Army.
▪️ Since night, there have been reports of air defense operations against enemy UAVs in the Bryansk Region. Constant shelling of border settlements continues.
▪️ In the Belgorod Region, the AFU continue to strike at the civilian population. In the settlement of Gruzskoe of the Borisovsky district, two civilians were wounded. Novaya Tavolzhanka, Shebekino, as well as Tishanka of the Volokonovsky district were shelled.
Two Majors
Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_21.html
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