Scotland and The Devolution Trap

Former Ambassador, Human Rights Activist

As Starmer and Reeves subject the UK economy to yet more austerity and deregulation, the Scottish Government takes the blame for cutbacks caused by an economic policy in which they have zero say.

That has always been the problem with devolution: it is responsibility without power – an invidious position to be in.

That is not to say the Scottish government does not make plenty of mistakes of its own – the absurdly large sums of money thrown at the “third sector”, often to further pet causes, is one example.

Angus Robertson has just imposed cuts on Creative Scotland programmes, when the arts are a powerful economic driver for Scotland. What he has not done is cut the bloated Creative Scotland itself. Scotland spends considerably more on the administration of the arts than the creation of art.

The SNP has embraced the entire Freeport scam, which is deregulation gone wild and a recipe for human and environmental exploitation.

All this is a reminder that in an Independent Scotland, life will not be perfect and we will still have some appalling politicians. But it also shows that devolution is an effective weapon against Independence because the Scottish Government faces almost inevitable unpopularity from implementing Westminster-enforced policy.

The pretendy “parliament” at Holyrood is a jumped up regional council, no more than that. As we look back on ten years since the Independence referendum, we can mourn the gradual decline in governmental competence at Holyrood.

Still more can we mourn the undeniable fact that for the SNP leadership devolution was enough. They like pretending to be a government and in the last decade have done nothing to advance Independence (other than a Supreme Court hearing for the power to hold a referendum, which they were always going to lose but still deliberately threw, to make sure).

The truth of the conspiracy by Sturgeon to jail Alex Salmond continues to leak out bit by bit. I would add this thought:

When I first (before the Salmond trial) saw the WhatsApp messages between the conspirators plotting the allegations, I could not understand at all why the police were not investigating conspiracy to pervert the course of justice.

I realised that in fact the conspiracy stretched beyond Sturgeon’s office and SNP HQ, and the police and the Crown Office had to be corruptly involved too. I remain absolutely convinced of that.

I have written recently of the revolutionary atmosphere that pervaded the Independence campaign ten years ago – the feeling that a new nation could be built that was radically fairer and more equal.

For me, the most significant date in Scottish history in my lifetime was 31 January 2020. On that night the UK left the EU, and Sturgeon assembled the SNP MPs and MSPs for an announcement. There was widespread anticipation she would announce a referendum, given massive public opinion on Scotland against leaving the EU. Independence had established a sustained polling lead.

Instead Sturgeon climbed down completely and said that there were “no tricks or clever wheezes” that could bring Independence. That was the Rubicon moment for the SNP, the day that they became a unionist party and not an Independence party.

I also want to make an observation about the 2014 Referendum. While I was making myself ill, dashing all over Scotland giving numerous speeches, I noticed the almost total absence of both Sturgeon and Robertson from the street campaign. Neither was frequently in broadcasting studios either, especially in the crucial last week. I have been told Sturgeon experienced a medical event, but that does not fully explain it.

This Labour government is going to become very unpopular, very quickly. Starmer achieved the second lowest ever percentage of votes cast for his party of any Prime Minister in British history.

Only Ramsay MacDonald’s 1923 minority government had a narrower base of support:

1923 MacDonald 30.7%
2024 Starmer 33.7%
2005 Blair 35.2%
2010 Cameron 36.1%

If you look not at percentage of voters but percentage of the total electorate, the result is even more stark:

2024 Starmer 20.2%
2005 Blair 21.8%
1923 MacDonald 21.8%
2010 Cameron 26.7%

One in five eligible voters cast their votes for Starmer. If you look at the other lowest examples, MacDonald led a minority government, Cameron a coalition, and Blair had to resign after two years.

Do not allow the fluke first past the post result to fool you. A Labour victory in the next Holyrood election is not inevitable. And yes, I do intend to stand for Alba.

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