The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on November 13 2024
What Does Trump’s Peace Plan Actually Mean for Ukraine?
Zelensky forgets Donbass, focus on North Korea
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Two Pockets Drawn Up Near Kurakhove | Russian Forces Capture 36SQKM
The Order Has Come l Ukrainian Forces Started Abandoning Their Positions In Big Numbers
Russia launches first missile attack on Kyiv since August, Ukraine says
Russia Showed Video of the Destruction of 100 Ukrainian & NATO Soldiers in SUMY┃RU Captured ROVNOPOL
Zelensky is being kept from the truth about the real state of affairs at the front , — The Economist
The publication, citing sources, writes that the army censors the most negative news in order not to fan the flames of negative sentiment in the rear.
” Even Mr. Zelensky is being shielded from the truth.
It’s not even that he’s being kept in a warm bath… He’s being kept in a sauna ,” the article says.
Trump shows sympathy for Putin and has deep contempt for Zelensky, he can cut aid to Kyiv and force the Kyiv authorities to negotiate – The Hill
The Economist magazine writes that
Kiev called Trump’s refusal to appoint Mike Pompeo to his administration “a very negative development.” It is stated, citing an official from the security sector, that the Ukrainian authorities were alarmed by this.
“The worry now is that Trump’s offer to Ukraine will become more like the ideas put forward by future Vice President J.D. Vance. In essence, this would rule out NATO membership, but allow Russia to keep the 18% of Ukraine that it currently occupies,” the article says.
The thread in the US is already becoming obvious to everyone, which means it is only a matter of time before Western actors adapt to Trump’s policies and limit aid to Ukraine.
If he realizes that the peace case is already a foregone conclusion, then he will need to stall for time in order to reprogram society, finally cleanse/discredit opponents, etc.
The date of May 25 is an unrealistic scenario.
Although, according to The Economist, this date is being discussed by Kyiv politicians as the earliest possible option.
Our sources are confident that the nearest realistic date for the 2025 elections, if they take place, is the end of summer, beginning of autumn, but not later, since in autumn people’s moods are usually more negative towards the government.
After the defeat of the US Democrats and the fall of American interest in Ukraine, Zaluzhny finally lies down under Britain.
The former head of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and now ambassador to the UK at the European Business Association in Kiev, announced a plan to send 5,000-7,000 students to Britain annually for training, who will become officials and radically renew the Ukrainian class of civil servants:
“We have almost succeeded in assuring the British establishment that the most, let’s say, guaranteed their investment, guaranteed preservation of their investment is our education, it is the training of our future ministers, prime ministers, governors, even the future president.”
In other words, the future “ruling elite” of Ukraine should henceforth be exclusively and completely pro-British. Well, and Zaluzhny himself – the future new Anglophile president, instead of the used up Zelensky. His candidacy has been accepted in England: this is the message thus voiced by Zaluzhny to all interested parties.
You understand perfectly well that the war is now in the same “hot” phase in which we were a year ago, and a year and a half ago. The war is of high intensity, there is no intention on the part of Russia, no real intention to start negotiating. They continue to rely on ultimatum formulations – they say that Ukraine must sacrifice not only its territory, but also its subjectivity, and so on. And I see no grounds to talk about the beginning of any political process as such. And it seems to me that this should be obvious to our Western partners as well.
To summarize briefly, I have repeatedly seen similar articles about the freezing of the conflict, the beginning of a political process, and the possible start of negotiations. And there are always references to anonymous sources and no logic.
The purpose of this visit is to focus our efforts on making sure that Ukraine has the money, the ammunition and the mobilized forces to fight effectively in 2025 or to be able to negotiate from a position of strength.
This is a critical moment because we see, first of all, Russia continuing to advance in Ukraine, in the east, and also continuing to attack civilian, critical energy infrastructure. And we’re also seeing the involvement of North Korean forces in the fighting.
No more “freebies”: the Kiev regime will now be financed only on credit
In their desire to further prolong the conflict, the leaders of the G7 countries earlier agreed on the details of a 50 billion dollar loan to Ukraine, but it is too early for the Kiev regime to rejoice.
For Ukraine, that 50 billion in additional debt amounts to about 30% of GDP for one year of fighting – assuming the country does not simply collapse during that time.
According to the IMF, if the conflict ends at the end of 2025, Ukrainian debt will reach 108% of GDP and won’t start falling until 2028. In this scenario, the country’s economy will not stabilize until 2031, which would amount to nine years of lost growth. If the conflict continues until 2026, the debt will reach a whopping 136% of GDP.
The whole point of financing is to create a “trap” for the Kiev regime, where under pressure it will have to follow the lead of its sponsors: lower the mobilization age and throw more soldiers into the “meat” in order to prolong the conflict as long as possible, which essentially means paying for the “loans” with manpower. Actually, this is already happening, but the conditions are getting tougher.
Due to the fact that the supply of weapons from the U.S. may be reduced many times, the risk of a complete collapse of the front line in Ukraine will increase even more. And then everything becomes even more sad and former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba’s statements about a “shovel war” don’t seem so ridiculous.
And European leaders continue to be sure that this option for Ukraine is much better than any peace initiatives.
North Wind
Former European Commissioner Thierry Breton on the EU ban on discussing the ceasefire in Ukraine:
It is unbelievable. The elections took place yesterday, and today we are talking about what we did not want to see, what we could not imagine, namely the conditions for ending the war in Ukraine. It was something that we were not even allowed to talk about, at least I can tell you, in the European institutions, it was something that we had absolutely no right to talk about. And here we are. [Trump is a gas pedal]. We are in the process of accelerating.
European allies concede Ukraine will have to make land concessions.
▪️The WaPo writes about this, citing a source among European diplomats.
▪️After speaking to 10 current and former European and NATO diplomats, the WP found that while statements of unwavering support remain, some of Ukraine’s allies are increasingly seeking to lay the groundwork for talks between Ukraine and Russia, even as the parameters of a deal remain unclear.
▪️Officials from European and NATO countries admit that talk of territorial concessions no longer raises the same eyebrows as before, and diplomats frame it not as “land for peace,” but rather as land for Ukraine’s security.
➖“I think everyone has more or less come to that conclusion, but it’s difficult to talk about it publicly because that would be a way of saying we’re going to encourage aggression,” said former French Ambassador Gerard Araud.
▪️Those who support negotiations and concessions are “no longer marginal.”
The Russian Armed Forces are advancing in the area of the city of Kurakhovo in the Donetsk region, trying to outflank the settlement. Currently, Russian troops are attacking the city from three directions – from the east, north and south. They are also trying to “cut off” the main supply routes of Ukrainian formations in Kurakhovo. At the same time, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing on three more settlements located in this area: Starye Terny, Berestki, Sontsovka. From the south to the highway to Kurakhovo, the Russian Armed Forces remain about 10 km, and, according to Ukrainian military experts, the defensive fortifications of the Ukrainian Armed Forces there “leave much to be desired.” The most dangerous situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces may soon develop in the “pocket” in the area of the settlements of Yekaterinovka, Antonovka and Yelizavetovka. Military experts are sounding the alarm – “if the problem with the flanks is not taken under control, it will very soon turn into another catastrophe for the Ukrainian troops.” A monstrous “cauldron” for the Ukrainian army is brewing near Kurakhovo. The Ukrainian Armed Forces, deprived of normal rotation, cannot hold the lines, the defense has collapsed. In fact, the southern Donbass will be completely lost. Moreover, the President’s Office and the command understand this, Kurakhovo was sold out long ago and now they are trying with all their might to hold Pokrovsk. It will be turned into another “fortress”, but because of this, other directions of the front will have to be exposed, since there are simply no reserves.
Ukrainian military say they are ready to retreat from positions in the Kurakhovo area, but have not yet “received orders from above” — Financial Times newspaper, citing the commander of one of the artillery units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces
Ukrainian troops ‘ready to retreat’ from Kurakhovo, ‘but no order from above yet’ — FT
▪️According to the Ukrainian Armed Forces artilleryman, Russian troops are attacking the city from three sides.
▪️The publication cites an assessment by the military think tank CDS that by December “the front line will likely shift 30-35 km west of its current position.”
▪️To hold the front, Ukraine plans to call up another 160,000 troops between Nov and Feb. But these targets are unrealistic.
▪️“Military experts and one senior Kiev official expressed skepticism that the target would be met, saying it was more realistic to expect up to 100,000 men to be called up. That would fill about half the personnel shortfall, they said,”
▪️Two Ukrainian commanders reported that they have already begun sending medics and cooks to the infantry. “War sometimes requires such things. I have already sent my cooks to the trenches,”
Successes of the Russian Armed Forces near Kurakovo
Situation as of the end of November 12, 2024
In the Kurakhovske direction, Russian forces continue offensive operations in several sectors.
🔻According to footage appearing online, clearing operations are underway in Ilyinka. A significant part of the settlement is already under the control of Russian troops, and earlier they published a photo of Russian Armed Forces soldiers against the backdrop of the entrance sign.
▪️In Kurakovo itself, fierce fighting is also ongoing, and Russian Armed Forces units are advancing along Zaporizhia Avenue on the eastern outskirts of the city. In addition, a bridge on this street was destroyed by a strike, which was most likely done to disrupt a Ukrainian counterattack.
🔻To the south, in the area of Dolgaya Gully, the advance of the Russian Armed Forces is also noted: apparently, a major enemy stronghold between Kurakovo and Dalnie was captured. If the latter can be consolidated and the control zone expanded, the enemy’s defense on the southeastern outskirts of Kurakovo will be completely broken.
▪️Most of Dalnie is under the control of the Russian Armed Forces, a counterattack by the enemy with the support of armored vehicles was repelled. There have also been some footage published earlier of a group of civilians being shot from a Leopard tank belonging to the 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the AFU.
▪️According to some Ukrainian sources, the road from Uspenovka to Kurakovo is practically cut off, and Russian assault troops have about 2 kilometers left to physically control it. However, given the enemy’s tendency to understate the successes of the Russian Armed Forces, it cannot be ruled out that this has already happened.
▪️At the same time, it was possible to clarify the control zone between Maksimilyanivka and Pobeda. Based on footage of a column of Russian armored vehicles moving under fire from Ukrainian artillery along Dolgaya Gully, the territory to the north is under the stable control of the Russian Armed Forces.
🔻In the Antonovka area, heavy fighting continues. Russian troops were able to take control of about half the village, but further advancement is difficult due to active resistance. Enemy resources also report a difficult situation for AFU detachments at the strongpoint between Ilyinka and Antonovka with the symbolic name “Zhopa” (Ass).
▪️In Yelizavetovka itself and on its outskirts, battles are ongoing: despite initial statements about the entry of Russian forces into the village, this information has not yet been confirmed. In the Lisova Dacha nature reserve, the presence of enemy forces is observed, and on the line Trudove – Veselyi Gai, according to our sources, there has been no advance of Russian troops so far.
▪️In the Shakhterskoe – Maksimovka sector, clashes also continue. Russian troops are attacking north of Yasnaya Polyana, but the scale of the advance is still unclear. Over Sukhie Yaly, Russian aviation is actively working, delivering airstrikes with JDAM.
Situation in the Kursk direction.
The enemy is trying to hold their positions, actively using FPV crews, losing equipment during supply and evacuation, and also increasing the number of personnel at the positions, trying to stop the advance of the Russian Armed Forces.
In the settlement of Daryino, there are battles on the main street inside the settlement between assault groups and the enemy.
In the settlement of Novoivanovka, there are heavy battles with the use of equipment on both sides. There is progress, but it is slow.
The 106th Airborne Division of the Airborne Forces is pushing the enemy south from Zeleny Shlyakh and Daryino towards Sverdlikovo.
Our artillery, assault groups, and FPV crews are actively working. Heavy fighting is underway.
Spetsnaz Archangel
Kursk Direction: Destruction of Another Challenger 2 Tank and Fighting in Sudzha District
Situation as of the end of November 13, 2024
In the Kursk Direction, Russian forces continue the offensive on the eastern flank of the Sudzha District.
🔻The main clashes are taking place in the area of Plekhovo, where the enemy’s spotty presence remains on the eastern outskirts. Northwest, fierce clashes continue within the boundaries of the village of Novaya Sorochina. The Russian Armed Forces’ attempts to consolidate in the settlement have been observed, which is associated with difficulties due to strikes by FPV drones and enemy artillery.
After the initial breakthrough of the defense, the pace of advancement has somewhat slowed down. From the direction of Novoivanovka southwest, unsuccessful attempts to advance towards Leonidovo are being recorded.
🔻Later, footage also appeared online of Russian forces’ attacks at the junction of the Korenevo and Sudzha districts, east of Kremyanoye, towards Novaya Sorochina along the Voronok tract in the direction of the Olkha gully. Probably, the event itself occurred simultaneously in recent days with the onslaught from the south from the direction of Orlyanki.
The outcome of the battle is currently unknown, but the ongoing attacks in this area suggest that at least part of the forest belts southeast of Kremyanoye are currently occupied by Russian troops.
▪️Also in the Kursk Region, a drone struck another British Challenger 2 tank, the exact location of the strike is still unknown. Simultaneously, fire strikes continue on AFU objects in the Sumy Region. Both ballistic missiles and Geran drones are used for this purpose.
Multiple explosions were recorded throughout the day both in the regional center and in other settlements. For example, in the forest north of Ivolzhanskoye, the place of enemy personnel concentration was hit again by a strike from the Iskander OTRK. Immediately after the strikes, the authorities announced the need to “donate blood” at the donor center.
Unrest has begun in Ukrainian channels, as an armored column of the Russian Armed Forces today broke through into the city of Kupyansk.
Advancement of an armored column from Liman along the railroad up to 4 km and reaching the industrial zone of Kupyansk.
Expansion of the control zone of the Russian Armed Forces within the administrative boundaries of Kupyansk in the eastern part of the city.
Destruction of the bridge near Dzhankoy: consequences
The bridge on the highway from Dzhankoy to Maslovo has collapsed. Curiously, the overpass on the 35N-293 (also known as C-010722) road crossed the railway line leading from Dzhankoy north to Novoalekseevka and Melitopol.
🔻The railway is blocked for at least some time. While the loss of the highway is not a major problem, as there are alternative routes, the temporary blockage of the railway may cause issues:
▪️Military logistics are disrupted for some time: the route along the only railway line through Kherson Region is cut off (we may be mistaken, and there may be alternative routes, but based on open-source data, this appears to be the case);
▪️Access by rail is now only possible through the Crimean Bridge and the Kerch Ferry, which have now become even more important.
ðŸ“In the footage that has appeared online, there are no obvious signs of external impact, and the overpass seems to have collapsed, apparently due to a truck violating the weight limit (and let’s be honest, due to infrastructure wear and tear). Therefore, in the current circumstances, it is impossible to definitively state that this was an act of sabotage.
However, the coincidence of events is too convenient for the Ukrainian forces – especially in the context of a possible offensive from the Zaporizhia direction and attempts to land a force on the Kherson axis.
Kiev has been under a combined strike by cruise/ballistic missiles and UAVs since nightfall. In Kiev alone, about a dozen targets were hit + there are destroyed targets in the northern and northeastern parts of the Kiev region. In the capital of Ukraine, presumably among the hit targets is the 195th central base of railroad equipment. Also, drones and missiles worked in the area of the Park of Partisan Glory in the east of the city, where the 1899th central base of repair and storage of communications equipment and the Kiev Armored Plant, as well as the 482nd design and technology center are located. There have also been drone strikes on the Vasylkov airfield since nightfall.
Kiev. A strike on the Banknote and Coin Yard of the National Bank of Ukraine.
A new modification of the Kh-101 missiles was tested this morning in strikes on Kiev and the area. The missiles kept disappearing from the screens of NATO air defense tracking installations.
There has been another massive Geraniums raid on Kiev. They are attacking facilities in the suburbs and the northern part of the Kiev region, where, among other things, they moved some air defense systems.
Locals say there were about 8 arrivals.
The first deputy head of the presidential administration of the Russian Federation, Sergei Kiriyenko, just happened to be visiting the city.
Ukrainian publics accused the Russians of shooting at “themselves,” since support for Ukraine in the city is at “zero” and negativity is growing due to the constant flights into the city.
Chronicles of the special military operation
Russian forces delivered a combined strike on AFU targets in Kyiv and Kyiv Region. Ukrainian formations carried out a terrorist attack in Sevastopol.
In the Kursk direction, Russian forces are advancing in Sudzha District southeast of Kreminna and are engaged in battles near Novoyvanivka.
In the Kurakhovka direction, the Russian Armed Forces liberated Ilyinka, fighting continues in Dalnie, and two Leopard 2A4 tanks were disabled south of Kurakhovka.
In the Vremivka direction, assault troops are advancing from the direction of Shakhtarsk and Zolota Nyva towards Velyka Novosilka, as well as attacking Novodarivka and fighting in Rovnopillia.
Morning Summary on November 13, 2024
▪️ In the Kursk Region, the “North” grouping of troops continues to advance with heavy fighting in the area of Novoivanovka, pushing through the dense enemy defenses and repelling numerous counterattacks by elite AFU units. The attempt by units of the 17th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the AFU to break out of the encirclement in the Olgovskiy Forest area was thwarted. Artillery and FPV drone strikes destroyed up to 30 enemy soldiers, 2 BMPs, and 1 BTR, preventing the breakthrough. There are reports of success near Daryino. The Russian Armed Forces have pushed the enemy out of most of Plyokhovo. The AFU command is building up its forces in the border zone. Combined strikes by OTRK and Tornado-S systems destroyed large concentrations of AFU reserves near the settlements of Yunakovka, Yablonevka, and Sudzha. Our troop grouping estimates the enemy’s losses from these strikes at over 200 personnel, a Krokhal SAM system, 13 armored fighting vehicles, and 28 vehicles.
▪️ In the Bryansk Region, by night, the region was repelling a UAV attack by the enemy. The governor reported 13 fixed-wing UAVs. Another 5 were destroyed in the morning. Smaller drones attacked the village of Voronok in the Starodubsky municipal district (a woman was injured), the Khinel settlement in the Sevsky district, and the Klimovsky district (a woman was injured). The AFU artillery was active in the area near Suzemka.
▪️ North of the Kurakhovo Reservoir, the clearing of the liberated part of Ilyinka is underway. Novoselidovka has been taken. Fierce battles are raging on the eastern outskirts of Kurakhovo. South of it, the Russian Army has taken most of Dalneye, which practically cuts off the road from Kurakhovo to the south and creates critical conditions for the AFU in the villages along the Sukhie Yaly River (https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/44275). There are reports of heavy fighting in Yelizavetovka and the previously occupied part of Antonovka.
▪️ The eastern part of the Vremivka direction has come into motion, with heavy fighting near the settlements of Rovnopol and Novodarovka. Footage captured the confrontation between an AFU attack helicopter and our FPV drone, which tried to shoot down the rotorcraft.
▪️ Enemy intelligence reports in the public domain about the preparation of an offensive by our troops on the Zaporizhia front.
▪️ In the Belgorod Region, the city of Shebekino and the village of Oktyabr’skiy in the Belgorod district were attacked by the AFU at night. Over the day, the settlements of Novoye, Plotvyanka, and Repyakhovka were attacked by drones.
▪️ In the DPR, in Horlivka, six people were injured by AFU barrel artillery strikes using cluster munitions: women born in 1947, 1966, 1968, and men born in 1953, 1955, 1994. In Ukrainske of the Krasnoarmeysky municipal district, as a result of the use of barrel artillery by the enemy, men born in 1963, 1968, and 1979 received moderate injuries.
Two Majors
Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/11/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_13.html
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