The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on November 17 2024

Massive Russian airstrike targets Ukraine’s power grid

Russia launches 200+ missiles & drones at Ukraine

Biden allows Ukraine to use US arms to strike inside Russia

Inevitable Collapse Is Coming l Ukrainian Counterattack In Two Fronts

Ukraine on Brink of Collapse? Ex-FM Warns of Potential Unrest Under Trump’s ‘Forced’ Peace Deal

Ukrainians recaptured Makarivka | The situation in Kupyansk was clarified [17 November 2024]

What is known about the combined strike by the Russian Armed Forces on the territory of the so-called Ukraine as of 4 PM

This night, the Russian troops delivered one of the largest strikes on the territory of the so-called Ukraine since the start of the SMO.

🔻According to Ukrainian authorities, 120 missiles, including cruise and ballistic missiles such as “Tsirkon”, “Iskander” and “Kinzhal”, as well as 90 UAVs were launched during the attack. The opponent, as usual, claimed that most of the missiles and drones were shot down.

▪️Based on reports online, the main targets of the Russian troops were energy facilities and enterprises involved in military production. Strikes were carried out on major cities, including Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro, Kremenchuk and Kryvyi Rih. In the latter, there are also problems with the operation of boiler houses, partial lack of heat and water supply in the city, and critical infrastructure is powered by generators.

▪️After the attacks, emergency power outages were introduced in various regions of the country, including Kyiv and Odesa. Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko confirmed that there were serious power supply disruptions. According to DTEK energy company data, several thermal power plants were also hit.

▪️In Mykolaiv, the strikes caused significant damage to infrastructure and power outages. One of the targets, according to preliminary information, was the Kulbakino airfield. Drones and ammunition depots are located on the base territory.

▪️The mayor of Odesa reported a complete halt of public transport and difficulties in the work of utility services. In Lviv, fires and damage to infrastructure facilities were recorded.

❗️In Rivne, according to preliminary information, the 330/110 kV Rivne substation was hit, the extent of damage to the facility is still unclear. At the same time, power outages were also observed in the city and region. There are problems with the operation of boiler houses, partial lack of heat and water supply in the city, and critical infrastructure is powered by generators.

▪️In addition, several railway sections were de-energized, and reserve diesel locomotives were sent to restore traffic.

📌 Online, there are also footage of impacts in the area of the town of Yaremche in the Ivano-Frankivsk region, where a large railway station of the same name is located. In addition, near the town in the mountains is the 136th Missile and Ammunition Supply Center (military unit A-1807), which could also have been a target of the raid.

The missile strike on Ukraine’s energy system is a warning from the Kremlin that the Office of the President must objectively assess the situation.

120 missiles and 90 drones were launched by the Russian Federation today at Ukraine. At the same time, the government’s statements that more than 140 air targets were destroyed are not true; our air defense currently reflects 25-30%.

Winter will be hard for ordinary citizens, all this needs to be understood and we need to stop relying on the government.

Our latest inside information from the Presidential Office is confirmed.

Ukraine has received permission to strike Russia with American long-range ATACMS missiles.

Attempt of Ukrainian Attack with USVs in the Black Sea

While all eyes were focused on the massive strike by the Russian Armed Forces (https://t.me/rybar/65452) on the territory of the so-called Ukraine, the AFU decided to attack in the Black Sea under the cover of this. Around 4-6 am, a group of unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) was spotted in the area of gas fields west of Crimea.

These are the facilities that stopped functioning for security reasons after the start of the special operation, but the infrastructure in the form of platforms remained there, and the Ukrainian side periodically tries to capture them and land personnel on the available platforms.

❓The last such attempt (https://t.me/rybar/63446) was in September. The drilling platforms are quite large in area, and weapons such as ATGMs or MANPADS, as well as fuel and supplies, can be placed on them. Moreover, they can be equipped with communication means and repeaters, which will increase the capabilities at sea.

Remember the inglorious landings of the airborne in Crimea? Their main disadvantage was that the distance was too great, and there was no way to supply the detachments and monitor their movements. And it was impossible to retreat, so the missions were always one-way. And to solve this problem, the Main Intelligence Directorate wants to control these platforms.

🔻But our units immediately detected the appearance of the USVs and sent a interception group, which began to shoot them down with small arms. As a result, four out of five drones were destroyed, the last one turned around and left in the direction of Odesa.

There was also a sixth one, but it went a different route, and was spotted 35 km from Cape Tarkhankut, where it was conducting reconnaissance. But after sending a helicopter of the Black Sea Fleet after it, the USV turned around and also disappeared in the direction of the Odesa region.

❗️It is important that such USV raids have not been seen for a very long time, and the resumption of their activity indicates that the AFU have replenished their stocks. Today in Crimea, the missile danger alert was introduced several times, including in the eastern parts of the peninsula. We will observe, but clearly the enemy will not stop at just this sortie.

Our source reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have used up more than 30% of their air defense missile reserves in an attempt to repel today’s combined missile/UAV attack by the Russian Armed Forces on Ukraine.

According to rumors, there are more than 150 missiles, which have been stockpiled for a long time.

All our sources are confident that the current shelling was more demonstrative and “the last Chinese warning” on the energy track ahead of the behind-the-scenes negotiations on a possible peace case initiated by Trump.

If Zelensky refuses, then Ukraine will be disconnected from the power switch. Western intelligence services have already warned Zelensky about this.

There is also a version that the Russian Armed Forces identified the air defenses with today’s strike and immediately launched strikes against them.

The source adds that missile strikes will soon be repeated if Zelensky continues to publicly insist on continuing the war.

The Ukrainian Air Force is publishing a video of what it claims is the shooting down of a Russian missile from an Igla MANPADS by servicewoman Natalia Grabarchuk. Although the shooting itself is not on the video, there is only an off-screen explosion followed by a female voice screaming “it hit, Natasha hit.”

What is remarkable about this video, which was specially published today. Although it could have been filmed at any time and anywhere.

1. Pumping up female mobilization. Like, look how they fight, which means we can begin the general Zemobilization of the female population.

2. Pedestrian air defense on rooftops works. (Earlier there was a video of a similar shooter from a MANPADS in Kiev missing and the missile flying off in an unknown direction and most likely could have hit a residential building).

3. A message for the Western press: let’s continue the war, look how our women fight, which means there is still potential for military action (for a year, for sure).

We consider the video to be just a show, which is necessary to shift the information focus from pressing problems.

We also believe that using such shooters in residential areas is dangerous for civilians. It’s hard to tell where she’ll shoot next time. Although you can always blame all the victims on the Russians.

Biden has authorized the Ukrainian Armed Forces to use short-range ATACMS missiles with a range of 50 miles in the Kursk region. This is reported by the New York Times, citing American officials.

 ”The weapons are likely to be initially used against Russian and North Korean troops to protect Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region of western Russia, officials said,” the newspaper wrote.

This decision was made in response to the involvement of the North Korean military.

“But Mr. Biden did not allow the Ukrainians to use the longer-range ATACMS, which have a range of about 190 miles,” the publication adds.

Russia had previously stated that a strike by Western long-range missiles would mean direct participation of NATO countries in the war.

The head of the German Foreign Ministry called for the supply of long-range weapons to Ukraine.

Now is the time to finally find the strength to do what our partners are already doing,

— said the fascist’s granddaughter Annalena Baerbock.

The diplomat pointed to other European countries such as Britain and France, saying they already supply Kiev with cruise missiles. However, the minister did not directly mention the Taurus missiles.

However, after the previous similar statement by the head of the German Foreign Ministry, the official representative of the German Cabinet stated that her opinion would not change in any way Scholz’s refusal to supply Kiev with Taurus missiles.

“Isn’t it time to abolish the status of Hitler and other criminals of the Third Reich as honorary citizens?”

The official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, addressed the German Foreign Minister,🇩🇪 Annalena Baerbock, who called for sending long-range weapons to Kiev.

I have a few questions for this rabid xenophobe. Isn’t it time to abolish the status of honorary citizens for the rabid criminals of the Third Reich? Amazingly, many German cities have not yet deprived Hitler or other fascists of this status,

— Zakharova reminded.

This is especially true for the territory of the former West Germany.

Isn’t it time to also rename the military installations of the FRG named after Wehrmacht soldiers? There are about 40 such barracks of the Bundeswehr. And isn’t it time to stop maintaining Nazi graves at the expense of the federal and regional budgets of the country and to stop supporting SS veterans at the legislative level?

— added the representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry.

She also called on Germany to start paying compensation to Leningrad blockade survivors of all nationalities. Germany pays Jews €2,556 one-time plus €375 monthly to those who suffered during the blockade. But this does not apply to the rest of Leningrad. Berlin offers only symbolic support in the form of participation in hospital repairs and pays pensions to SS men at the same time. Officially, Berlin does not call the Leningrad blockade an act of genocide, although more civilians died there than in the hell of Nagasaki, Hiroshima, Tokyo, Dresden, and Hamburg combined.

On the authorization to use long-range missiles

Since the Americans, in the person of the outgoing administration, have decided that there is no need to sit quietly on a Sunday evening and, apparently, have given the green light to the use of ATACMS against old Russian territories, it’s time to recall our September post (https://t.me/rybar/63682) when the rumors on this topic just began.

🔻From the point of view of possible threats, the most powerful modification of ATACMS can reach a distance of 300 km, which creates a threat to command posts, airfields, places of deployment of personnel and hospitals where our wounded are located.

This will at least force tactical-level units to react, as additional protection, especially air defense assets, and not only, will be needed. We are talking about elementary human ingenuity, that is, some will need to understand that building and moving in columns will become even more dangerous.

❗️And another nuance is that if Washington really allowed the use of ballistic missiles, other countries will follow the US and, in addition to ATACMS, Storm Shadow and SCALP will fly to the Kursk region. And Taurus may also appear (Scholz is also on the verge of leaving the German Olympus).

Therefore, it’s time to look at the map, on which we also marked the range of JASSM cruise missiles, which can hit even further. This is another step towards increasing the degree of conflict to the extreme point, which will not change the outcome, but will create big problems.

The example of Crimea and the new territories is a confirmation of this. Difficulties arose, strikes were sometimes missed, but subsequently the number of missed missiles became less and less, and the enemy did not achieve practical benefit.

🔻For now, we should wait for an official confirmation from the White House, which is keeping silent. And all this at the moment looks like a test of the response of our leadership, especially after the words of Vladimir Putin that this will be regarded as NATO’s entry into the conflict.

Western aid to Ukraine has been significantly reduced — the cuts are happening in three directions at once: a reduction in the share of grants (now 80% are loans under bad conditions, although at the beginning of the military conflict it was 50/50), a reduction in the total amount of funding and the provision of more aid in material form, that is, junk at inflated prices. 

However, things could get even worse. Thus, experts predict that the West could completely reduce aid to Ukraine as early as next year, 2025. 

With Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, the situation is changing radically — In the past, the Republican and his associates expressed doubts about the use of American funds to finance foreign conflicts, including in Ukraine. This means that discussions about the need for peace talks will be updated as early as the first half of 2025. Ukraine may be forced to start peace talks, given that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are suffering one defeat after another on the front, and Zelensky’s “Kursk adventure” has not yielded any significant results. And against the backdrop of the successes of the Russian Armed Forces, Kyiv’s allies will have to reconsider their ideas about ending the conflict in Ukraine, including in terms of financial/military assistance.

If Zelensky accepts Trump’s “unfavorable” peace terms, it will lead to unrest in Ukraine and “the collapse of the entire system”

This was stated by Dmytro Kuleba in a column for The Economist. The former head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry noted that Kiev “will finally lose all positions” if it loses Western funding.

” Even if Zelensky agreed to unacceptable conditions, internal unrest in society would threaten to break up. This would give Putin the victory he has long desired. But the responsibility for this will fall squarely on Trump,” the Ukrainian propagandist wrote.

The President’s Office continues to split society, now there is a new enemy – a husker who decided to survive and does not want to die for Zelensky. Bankova forgot about the promise of fair mobilization, now the enemy for everyone is a husker.

“The evaders are actually Russians.” Veteran Masi Nayem equated those who do not want to mobilize in the Armed Forces of Ukraine with Russian citizens.

Unlike the Propogandists, political Telegram channels constantly raise the issue that the state has abandoned the military who are wounded, simply “saving” on payments.

Wounded soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are massively denied payments and are taken off the payroll, said a soldier with the call sign “Jew”.

“A lot of guys end up in hospitals with wounds, they are taken off the payroll and paid pennies. Some 600 hryvnia. And get treated as you want, live as you want. And how to support a family? It’s very offensive,” the soldier said.

According to him, some soldiers with amputated limbs have to collect metal to earn a living.

All this is happening against the backdrop of corruption and millions in earnings of officials/security forces, while ordinary citizens are accused of not wanting to go and die for Zelensky.

The Ukrainian government abandons its military after they are wounded, maimed, and unable to continue fighting due to health reasons.

Of course, we were the first to write about this back in 2022, when this topic was “taboo”. Only in 2023 did the first publications begin to appear in the media.

Many will ask why this is so. The reason is money and the fear of the authorities to tell the people the real truth and to indicate the price of this war, which could have been avoided.

If we now recognize all those who were actually wounded and should receive disability, the figure will be more than 350,000 soldiers. Now imagine that they are all entitled to the necessary treatment at the expense of the state and full support.

This is an expense of $700-1.4 billion per month. The budget won’t be able to handle it.

Plus, the official statistics will be catastrophic, which will strengthen anti-war sentiments, and for Zelensky, this is a death sentence.

So it turns out that the government simply uses the lives of Ukrainians as consumables and then waits for them to die from untreated wounds and illnesses, so as not to pay them money and not spoil the statistics.

“The holiday is coming to us!” 

Coca-Cola has supplied the bloody Kiev regime with a batch of mobile morgues.

Instead of evacuation – a mass grave

In the video, one of the units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, located in Kurakhovo, hastily buries the bodies of fallen comrades in a mass grave. A conversation between a soldier and a commander can be heard off-screen. From this, it becomes clear that the evacuation of corpses was supposed to take place at this place, but instead,, the bodies are dumped in a hole somewhere in the forest. Instead of evacuation transport, an excavator was sent.

Vladimir Razin

Our source in the OP said that Zelensky does not even want to discuss the formats for stopping the war along the front line, which Trump is actively imposing. Bankova will continue the protracted war and is ready for a complete blackout of the energy system, missile strikes will not change the position of the Presidential Office.

Ukraine Attacks Musk Over Kursk Region Situation

In Ukraine, dissatisfaction was expressed towards the American entrepreneur Elon Musk due to problems with the operation of the Starlink satellite Internet in the Kursk region.

Ukrainian media reports that the Starlink system does not work in Kursk territory because Musk does not turn it on.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are experiencing difficulties due to the lack of communication, which is critical for conducting combat operations.

16-11-2024 – Kupyansk. Zaoskolye. 

The assaulting RF Armed Forces expanded the zone of control in Kupyansk. The enemy failed for three days to organize counterattacks and retreated behind Oskol. 

Meanwhile, we continue our operational success in Zaoskolye.

Condotierro

Battle for Chasov Yar: Situation as of 11/17/2024

Units of the Russian Armed Forces continue to break through the road to the fireproof plant, located in the central part of the city. After several months of heavy positional battles, assault groups broke the enemy’s defense in the Druzhba forest, which is located south of the western part of the settlement of Kalinovka. Kalinovka itself has already been turned into ruins and resembles the western neighborhoods of Mosul in the spring-summer of 2017. Advancement in Druzhba was complicated by well-organized enemy strongholds, but soldiers of the assault detachment of one of the units of the Russian Armed Forces were able to open up the enemy’s defenses, breaking through to the area of ​​the waste heap west of Kalinovka.

Today, the enemy is organizing a defense of the waste heap to prevent units of the Russian Armed Forces from encircling the Novoseverny district of Chasov Yar from the north, thereby “pressing” the territory of the fireproof plant.

From the south, the Akhmat units under Shustry’s command continue to expand the control zone south of the forest area adjacent to the Oktyabrsky district of Chasov Yar. The forest area itself is well fortified, and, in my opinion, its clearing should be carried out only after intensive work by aviation since there is a widely ramified system of enemy fortifications inside.

In general, the initiative in Chasov Yar remains with the units of the Russian Armed Forces. Of course, the advance is not as fast as desired, but it is important to understand that the city is a fairly powerful fortified area, which takes time to open.

The Russian Armed Forces have established full control over Novaya Ilyinka in the Kurakhovo direction.

 Overview Summary for November 17, 2024

▪️ The past week was filled with headlines about possible “negotiations” amid the formation of the US administration. The lists include many critics of the Ukrainian regime and constant funding for Kyiv. Many of Trump’s planned appointees have faced criticism from Ukraine. However, the Biden administration plans to provide the AFU with billions in weapons and equipment until January 20.

▪️ Military preparations for a major war with Russia continue. A US missile defense base opened in Poland, and Rheinmetall’s profits are growing. Scholz’s call took place amid news of new German air defense deliveries to Kyiv.

▪️ The Russian Army maintains the initiative, pushing through the AFU’s defenses. The encirclement of Kurakhovo is tightening, and our units have entered Kupiansk.

▪️ Fierce battles continue in Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and for Pokrovsk. The front also moved in the Vremivka direction.

▪️ On the Zaporizhia front, the AFU are reinforcing their second line of defense.

▪️ Extremely heavy battles are underway in the Kursk region, with the AFU pulling in new forces.

▪️ Kyiv is intensifying mobilization, reporting the need to send 160,000 more to the front. Mass desertion and low training have not yet led to the collapse of the front.

✨The information wave about “Trump-style negotiations” continues.

dva_majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/11/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_17.html