The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on November 18 2024

Kremlin says US is testing ‘limits’ with long-range missile decision

Permission was given to strike in Russian territory | Ukrainian Counter attack in Bakhmut | 18 Nov

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This ACT by Putin Shocked The WORLD! Russia Dealt a Devastating Blow To The U.S. and NATO!

Are we headed for WWIII after this news??

US allows Ukraine to hit Russia with a long-range truck to defeat DPRK troops on the Kursk front – Axios

 - Another Western publication writes that Biden’s decision to lift the ban on “long-range trucking” concerns only the Kursk region.

 - The authorization was brought to Ukraine about 3 days ago, Axios reports.

 - According to the source, the motive was to keep North Korea from sending additional troops to Russia.

 - “Officials hope that if North Korean troops in Kursk are attacked, Pyongyang may reconsider its decision to send troops to Russia and the Russian counteroffensive in Kursk will fail,” the article said.

  – The New York Times also wrote yesterday that the priority target of ATACMS in the Kursk region could be North Korean troops.

 - Whether this means that the strikes will be carried out only against them, and Russian facilities will not be affected was not specified.

Germany to begin mass deliveries of “mini-Tauruses” to Ukraine — Bild

▪️Helsing’s kamikaze drones, equipped with artificial intelligence technologies that give them high autonomy in the face of enemy electronic warfare. These drones are compared to the long-range Taurus missiles that Scholz refuses to provide to Kiev.

▪️They received the nickname “mini-Taurus” for their autonomous operation, similar to German long-range missiles – without a pilot or GPS.

▪️Their flight range is allegedly four times greater than that of typical Ukrainian kamikaze drones.

▪️In total, the company allegedly ordered 4,000 of these drones for Ukraine. Starting in December, they may begin to arrive in batches of several hundred per month.

What is the main problem with using ATACMS with a range of 300 kilometers?

This time is when the AFU has the optimal opportunity to use them, since they have not been given these missiles since the beginning of the conflict. It will be possible to use these missiles for some time (several months, perhaps a little longer). However, as Russian troops move westward, the AFU will gradually lose the combat potential of these weapons and will not be able to threaten the “old” Russian territory. Currently, missiles with a range of 165 kilometers can be fired up to the border area at most, so the permission to use missiles with a range of 300 kilometers now is more of a “demobilization chord” of the outgoing U.S. administration for the army, which is losing ground in most key areas, than a real attempt to turn the situation around. In addition, the decision to transfer long-range ATACMS to the AFU, although it does not bring anything positive, but under such circumstances there are a lot of various restrictions, at least on its use. Take, for example, the unresolved issue of safety of HIMARS, which began to suddenly burn in Sumy region after the beginning of the Kursk operation of the AFU. 

The outcome of the “authorizations” to strike deep into the territory of Russian Federation. 

France allowed, but without authorization. Biden sort of allowed, but not with British missiles and not farther than 40 km, and that without officialization. 

And in general, sort of authorized, but allowed to start authorizing. Apparently it was just a overoink from the powerlessness to prevent the darkening of Ukraine after Trump’s ascension.

Volodin on Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to strike deep into our country with US missiles.

If this happens, Russia will be forced to respond.

How is a question for the Ministry of Defense.

But it is clear that the there will be an answer!

It is possible that new weapons systems will be used, which the Russian Federation has not used on Ukrainian territory yet.

We understand that the next step could be a response from the United States.

And then our response is inevitable.

This is called “escalation”.

Outgoing President Biden, due to his age, like any person – we are all mortal – will one day pass away.

But one gets the impression that, thinking about this, he dreams of eternity and wants to drag all of America with him.

And maybe the whole world!

As for the use of the weapons in question, they are already being used.

Its expanded use may, of course, cause damage, but it will not change the situation on the battlefield. I emphasize this.

It will only worsen the fate of Ukraine and its future.

And it will finally destroy Russian-American relations.

- Where will the rockets hit? Everywhere – military airfields, warehouses, bases, and possibly even hospitals.

- Why “everywhere”? Because nothing new has happened. These same rockets have been used to strike before – Crimea, Novorossiya, Luhansk, attempts on the Crimean Bridge.

- The situation differs from before only in the direction of the missile strikes.

- Our air defense forces are familiar with these weapon systems. Remember how the enemy was initially able to break through our air defenses, and how, over time, they failed more and more.

- Yes, American, British, and French missiles pose a serious threat. But they can be shot down. Much will depend on the decisions of local military commanders. For example, the placement of aircraft at military airfields will need to account for the enemy’s new capabilities.

- The enemy has repeatedly struck our groups with similar types of weapons. Yes, simpler ones, but nonetheless. The enemy uses HIMARS, Hammer air-to-ground bombs, drones, and modernized S-200s. Has this stopped our troops?

- Strikes by enemy drones on our cities have generally prepared both the military and civilian authorities, and there are established algorithms and response protocols in case of emergencies.

- Our air defense units are constantly training and improving their skills. Even at the Yaroslavl Air Defense University, cadet training is conducted taking into account the experience of the SMO.

- Very important! After the first strikes (and they will come, no doubt), there will be incredible euphoria in Ukrainian public channels. Kyiv politicians will spout a lot of pompous nonsense. The entire territory of the former Ukraine will hysterically celebrate. But we must not pay attention to this at all. They’ve been on this emotional roller coaster before. We mustn’t get on it.

- This will have the minimum impact on the overall outcome of the hostilities. It’s impossible to break us with this crap. Impossible to scare us either.

We will win, without a doubt. We’ve been through much more serious problems before.

We’ve already gone through so much and overcome so much that we’ll deal with this as well.

PS The “experts” who laughed at the “self-propelled grandad”. Funny or not? 

Regarding the information about allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range NATO weapons

Strikes deep into (https://t.me/inners_of_the_politics/122) Russian territory have already been carried out. For this, drone aircraft were used, and among the targets were elements of the country’s strategic security: Tu-95 strategic bombers and over-the-horizon radars.

However, it is inappropriate to compare a low-speed drone with a warhead of up to 50 kg (maximum) and high-speed missiles designed to penetrate air defense lines.

❗️It is important that if missile strikes deep into the country (and the border areas have already been hit by Western missiles more than once) occur, this will also solve the task of studying the operation of our air defense system against American missiles around strategic facilities. In this case – the missiles are so far in a non-nuclear configuration.

The Supreme Commander stated in September that such permission would mean direct NATO involvement in the conflict.

Our source in the OP said that Trump is against missile strikes on Russian territory and his position has already been conveyed to Andrey Yermak, to which the Head of the OP responded skeptically. Bankova is not going to reflect on the position of the future US president, considering it premature and not objective.

The Kremlin received information from intelligence about permission to launch missile strikes deep into Russian territory, which is why it launched a combined strike on Ukraine yesterday. In fact, we were warned yesterday that the entire energy system would be taken out, but for Bankova this is not a factor in decision-making, Zelensky is ready for a dimensional war. Now the President’s Office is deciding how to bypass Trump’s warning in order to escalate, but at the same time not to quarrel with the future US administration.

Our source in the OP confirms the information that the Kremlin, via Turkey and Saudi Arabia, conveyed a warning to Zelensky about the consequences of using missiles on Russian territory. Now it is up to Bankova to decide whether we will have electricity in the winter or the country will end up in a complete blackout.

Taynaya_kantselyariya

Biden gave the go-ahead for strikes with high-precision Western missiles deep into Russia; colleagues have been hearing about this for a long time.

We described this case in such a way that this decision would be made only to increase the temperature of the war and disrupt Trump’s plans for a peace case.

Now it is obvious. The Democrats and Zelensky need to disrupt the peace case at any cost (we wrote clear scenarios here), so they will raise the stakes in the game up to the strikes of tactical nuclear weapons and even the involvement of new directions in the war.

By the way, Zelensky knows that by raising the stakes he risks his own total capitulation.

Let’s recall Putin gave an answer to this case. Now let’s look at Zelensky’s move and the time when he uses it. Everyone was talking about the Christmas offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which Zelensky is preparing.

Also now the Kremlin’s blow to the energy sector is clear. They already knew the result and made a public warning to Kiev, we wrote about it right away.

If Kyiv raises the stakes, the Kremlin will pull the plug on Ukraine.

Ukrainians, light and heat in your homes depend on Zelensky’s decision, just as in 2022 he could have prevented the war and stopped it quickly, but he did not. What will he choose this time?

Alright, time to address the dark cloud. Putin generally means what he says. He is very careful about the words he uses. And although he leaves room for discretion, there will almost certainly be retaliatory strikes against nato should they start firing their missiles into Russia wearing Ukraine masks.

I also expect these retaliatory strikes will happen fairly quickly as Putin has had plenty of time to prepare; he certainly knew as well as I did this time would come.

However, I do not think Russian forces will be used. There is just too dangerous a precedent set if Russia and the USA start shooting directly at each other.

Best guess is some proxy forces have already received Russian weapons and are waiting for Putin’s blessings.

Colleagues, the situation is very complicated and Zelensky is now not faced with a choice, but with obligations. Unfortunately, Ukraine lost its subjectivity long ago, but during the war, the Office of the President decided to go even further and give the country over to the Western elites, who are promoting the war to the last Ukrainian. Politics is a complicated thing, but when you start playing geopolitics, and your level is a concert show, then the outcome will be a complete collapse.

ZeRada1

We confirm the information from our colleagues that if Yermak and Zelensky want to raise the stakes in the game by launching a large-scale missile attack on Russia with Western long-range weapons, they will further antagonize Trump, who will seek to personally flush them out of the game as inconvenient characters who can “set them up” at any moment.

Yermak convinces Zelensky that Trump needs to be forced into a game where he will be forced to continue financing and supplying Kyiv with weapons.

Our source reports that Zelensky and Yermak want to use Western long-range missiles to strike the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant and shut it down.

The attack will be carried out on the distribution substations near the nuclear power plant, as well as on the power lines, which will force the units to be shut down, which will cause an energy crisis in the region.

The only question is whether such a strike will be carried out before or at the moment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ offensive, or after the Kremlin tries to completely cut off Ukraine’s power supply using the same method, to which Kyiv will respond with similar strikes against Russian nuclear power plants/thermal power plants, etc.

According to our information, the Russian Armed Forces have long been strengthening the air defense group around the nuclear power plant in the Kursk region.

Our source in the OP once again confirmed the information that there will be no peace summit this year, now Bankova is trying to find a new format that will promote Zelensky’s victory plan and will allow finding funding to continue the war in 2025. Andriy Yermak has finally abandoned the idea of ​​uniting the Global South around Ukraine and wants to keep Western partners in supporting Zelensky.

The logic of the British media when it comes to Ukraine is amazing.

On page 22 of The Sunday Times, there is an editorial column with the traditional call “not to abandon Ukraine”. The newspaper goes into a screaming fit about how “Trump and Putin cannot be allowed to decide Ukraine’s fate together”! And accordingly, there is a vow to maintain British support for the Kyiv regime “until the last Ukrainian”.

You turn the page and immediately come across this picture, illustrating the glaring underfunding of the British army: “We can’t afford to buy white flags.”

It would seem that if you compare these two of your own materials together, then think about whether it is worth beating your chest and proving your ability to finance Ukraine after America jumps off this hopeless case.

KORNILOV

“Ukraine’s allies are piling on Zelensky to find a way to end the war”: Turkish President Erdogan will propose freezing the conflict in Ukraine at the G20 leaders’ meeting in Brazil. 

Erdogan will propose:

✔️ postpone discussion of Ukraine joining NATO for at least 10 years;

✔️ create a demilitarized zone in the eastern part of Donbass and station international troops there “as an additional guarantee”.

✔️ provide Kiev with military supplies as compensation for its refusal to join NATO.

Turkish authorities consider this approach to be the most realistic, although they recognize that it will be difficult for Ukraine to accept the offer

In Odessa in the morning there were reconnaissance UAV flights and then suddenly a ballistic missile flew in on the territory of the SBU sanatorium, which is located on the French Boulevard/Arcadia (its territory is huge).

By the way, the air defense missed twice.

There is a possibility that there was some kind of meeting on the territory of the sanatorium and there was a leak of information, since the ballistic missile flew in very suddenly. It looks very similar to how it was at the beginning of the year, when the top brass of the Ministry of Internal Affairs flew in to gather in Odessa.

We are watching… checking.

Clarifications. The explosion occurred near the building of the Investigative Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs on Shevchenko Avenue.

The source complements the entire story of Odessa’s current history/tragedy.

Ballistics were flying. The latest American Patriot air defense missiles were fired against it. Part of the air defense missile lies right at the site of the tragedy. We understand that they fired urgently.

Since they managed to shoot down the missile right as it was approaching the target, when it was already heading down towards the target, that’s why there were so many casualties. The striking elements from the air defense missile scattered close to the ground, plus the blast wave from both missiles caused damage.

That’s why they initially thought it was an incoming flight. Since the interception of Iskander happened near “Earth”.

A few thoughts on our strike today against the enemy’s energy infrastructure facilities. First and foremost, such strikes are systematic. That is, they should not be “retaliatory strikes,” not objects of negotiations, like let’s agree on mutually exclusive strikes against energy, but systemic work, for which forces and resources have been allocated, a military commander has been appointed, who has been given a very specific task.

In such a case, we may not plunge the enemy into the early 19th century (after all, the allies supply Kyiv with mobile generators, nuclear power plants are working and, at the very least, the Hohols will have some kind of electricity generation), but we will seriously complicate the work of industrial enterprises, and bleed the air defense system dry, make the work of Ukrainian propaganda as difficult as possible, and increase war fatigue in society as a whole.

The second thought follows from the above, and here I will perhaps partly agree with the head of the Ukrainian diplomacy, Sybiga, that the massive missile and drone strike was a response to a call from a telephone scammer in the Ukrainian service of Scholz, who is posing as the German Chancellor. Scholz was shown his real place in the language of diplomacy that usually follows a briefing and talks about the real attitude to negotiations on certain issues.

Pokrovsk-Kurakhove Direction: Fighting west of Selidovo and near Novohrodivka

Situation as of 3:00 PM on November 18, 2024

Russian forces are successfully advancing in the Pokrovsk direction on several sectors of the front. Although the activity of the Russian Armed Forces has somewhat decreased on the northern flank approaching Myrnohrad, west of Selidovo the Russian troops continue to expand the zone of control on the flanks around the city.

▪️On the northern face of the attack, clashes are recorded on the line Hrodivka — Mykolaivka, where as a result of several attacks over the past weeks, the Russian forces have been able to occupy several strongholds of the enemy. Enemy aviation activity using guided air bombs to strike Russian positions is noted.

🔻On the northern approaches to Novohrodivka, there are counter-attacks. The enemy regularly counterattacks relying on Myrnohrad and the defensive lines in the area of the railway towards Mine No. 3 “Novohrodivska”. One of the fortified areas north of Novohrodivka and west of Krytyi Yar is currently, apparently, a disputed territory, which is worked on with varying success by UAV operators of both sides.

▪️On the line Hryhorivka — Novohrodivka, a significant expansion of the zone of control of the Russian troops is also recorded. Vast fields to the northeast and southwest of the M-30 highway have been cleared of the enemy. In addition, assault troops have occupied several strongholds of Ukrainian formations in the area. The information is confirmed by both reports from the scene and footage published online.

▪️Meanwhile, in Petrivka, several units of Ukrainian armored vehicles and transport were destroyed, which Ukrainian commanders persistently send one by one along the same sighted route along the forest belts along the railway. In Hryhorivka, on the western outskirts, the Russian flag was raised by fighters (https://t.me/blackhussars/3105) from the 1437th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Oleksandriia Brigade.

❗️In addition, the zone of control in the vicinity of Novoaleksiivka was significantly expanded. Russian assault troops reached the outskirts of Yuriivka, where fighting began. At the moment, the settlement is most likely taken: it is reliably known that the Russian Armed Forces control half of the village. In the near future, information about the liberation of the settlement should be expected.

Recently, the number of attacks by the enemy on Donetsk has significantly decreased due to the successes of the Russian troops in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo directions, which have allowed the front line to be pushed further west.

Against this backdrop, the AFU have increased the intensity of shelling on Horlivka, located to the north and much closer to the line of demarcation – just 10 km from Dzerzhynsk, where fierce fighting has been going on in the center for several months now.

Early this morning, Ukrainian formations once again attacked civilian transport in Horlivka: a drone struck a minibus. According to preliminary data, as a result of the shell drop on the “Gazelle” in the Nikitovka district of the city, at least ten people were injured.

In addition, as a result of the shelling, the following areas were left without power: the settlement of Nikitovka station, the settlement of Zaitseve, the settlement of Stalsbyt, the settlement of the N.A. Izotov mine, the residential area of “Komsomolets”, the settlement of Khimik, the residential area of “Budivelnyk”, the microdistrict of “Quarter 245″, the settlement of Korolenko, the settlement of Golmovsky.

Zelensky published a video that he allegedly visited Pokrovsk.

Bad signal. Usually, this led to the loss of a settlement in the future.

Zelensky is trying to inspire the Ukrainian military to go on the offensive with such a trip, but many note that such a trick no longer works. It is unlikely to somehow raise morale in the army.

Now this is just hype and an attempt to fill the information field with the “illusion of work.”

Russian Defence Ministry reports on repelling AFU attempt to invade Russian territory in Kursk region

(18 November 2024)

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the operation to neutralise an enemy group, which broke into the territory of Kursk region.

▫️The units of the Sever Group of Forces inflicted losses on formations of 41st, 47th, 115th mechanised brigades, 82nd, 95th air assault brigades, the 36th Marine Brigade, 117th, 129th territorial defence brigades of the AFU near Aleksandriya, Daryino, Leonidovo, Novaya Sorochina, Novoivanovka, Plyokhovo, and Sverdlikovo.

▫️Operational-Tactical and Army aviation and artillery inflicted fire damage on AFU manpower and hardware close to Bogdanovka, Guyevo, Kurilovka, Lebedevka, Loknya, Martynovka, Mikhaylovka, Nizhny Klin, Nikolayevka, Nikolsky, Orlovka, Pogrebki, Russkoye Porechnoye, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Basovka, and Zhuravka (Sumy region).

▫️During the day, the AFU losses were 420 troops, two U.S.-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, one German-made Marder infantry fighting vehicle, four armoured fighting vehicles, four motor vehicles, one German-made 155-mm PzH-2000 self-propelled artillery system, one 152-mm Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, one 152-mm D-20 gun, and three 122 mm D-30 howitzers. In addition, 24 AFU servicemen surrendered.

▫️Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses were more than 33,670 troops, 213 tanks, 140 infantry fighting vehicles, 115 armoured personnel carriers, 1,175 armoured fighting vehicles, 958 motor vehicles, 291 artillery guns, 40 MLRS launchers, including 11 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 13 anti-aircraft missile launchers, seven transport-loading vehicles, 66 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 27 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, six armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.

The operation to neutralise the AFU units is in progress.

Chronicles of the special military operation

for November 18, 2024

Russian forces struck targets of the enemy in Sumy and Odesa. Ukrainian formations attacked with drones the Moscow Region and Tula Region.

In the Kupiansk-Svatove direction, Russian forces are engaged in fierce urban battles on the eastern outskirts of Kupiansk.

In the Pokrovsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces expanded the area of control north of Hryhorivka and west of Novohrodivka, clearing a number of forest belts.

In the Kurakhove direction, assault troops are fighting in Berestky, have fully captured Dalnie, and have taken new positions west of Trudove, where the AFU are trying to counterattack.

 Morning Summary for November 18, 2024

▪️ The “North” grouping of troops from the Kursk Region reports that fierce battles continue in the area of the settlements of Daryino and Novoivanovka. Our troops, with heavy fighting, advanced near the settlements of Nizhny Klin and Malaya Loknya, as well as in the Olgovskiy forest. The enemy carried out 3 counterattacks in the area of the settlements of Daryino and Nizhny Klin with a total strength of up to 25 people, but without success. During the repulse, up to 12 occupiers were destroyed. In the area of the Olgovskiy forest (https://t.me/dva_majors/57970), about 200 personnel of the 17th Tank Brigade of the AFU and 50 people from other units attempted to break out of the encirclement. The enemy’s plans were uncovered, fire damage was inflicted, and up to 180 personnel were destroyed, 24 were taken prisoner. A total of 456 AFU servicemen are in captivity.

▪️ Yesterday morning, the Russian Armed Forces delivered a massive strike with missile weapons and UAVs on the enemy’s rear facilities. There were reports of multiple damages to the power infrastructure, and data is coming from Odesa about a total lack of electricity. At the same time, the enemy is exaggerating the scale of the damage through official sources and the media: Ukrainian rail passenger transportation was resumed within two hours after the whining messages from enemy channels.

▪️ Against the background of articles in the American press about the alleged permission of the Biden administration to strike with long-range weapons at the “old” regions of Russia (although this was practiced in the Belgorod, Kursk, Rostov regions and Crimea), 26 fixed-wing UAVs were destroyed over the Bryansk Region at night.

▪️ In the Pokrovsk direction, our troops occupied the remaining northern part of Grigorovka and continue the assault on the neighboring Petrovka.

▪️ In the Kurakhovo direction, the Russian Armed Forces are storming the settlement of Berestki on the northern bank of the Kurakhovo reservoir. To the south, in the settlement of Dalneye, clashes have shifted to the area of the farm in the western part of the village. In the southern part of Trudovoye, the Russian Armed Forces have installed a flag and continue to advance with maneuverable groups towards the center.

▪️ Pressure on the enemy is increasing on the Zaporizhia front. In the Orikhiv direction, they report movement towards the settlement of Novoandreevka. North of Robotyne, the Russian Armed Forces are attacking towards the settlement of Malaya Tokmachka. Attacks from Novopokrovka were noted towards the settlement of Belohiria. Eastward, at the Vremivka salient, after the settlement of Rovnopol, Russian troops advanced up to 1 kilometer, and also continue to advance with maneuverable groups towards Novodarivka.

▪️ In the Belgorod Region, in the village of Biryuch of the Valuyki district (where a state of emergency has been introduced), a moving passenger car was attacked by an enemy kamikaze drone, a civilian was killed. In the village of Mayskiy of the Belgorod district, the glazing of a social facility was damaged as a result of a drone attack. Two kamikaze drones struck the village of Gruzskoe in the Borisovsky district.

▪️ In the DPR, shelling from the AFU was recorded in the direction of the settlements of Katerynivka – Horlivka (Nikitovsky district): 2 shells of 155 mm caliber. A man born in 1983 was wounded on Polya Robsona Street.

dva_majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/11/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_18.html