The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on December 15 2024

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Russia Prepares to Freeze Ukraine’s Heart As Putin’s Next Strike Could Shatter Zelensky

Chechnya attacked by drones | Ships sank in the Kerch Strait [15 December 2024]

In Ukraine, public disappointment with Zelensky’s policies continues to grow, which threatens stability in the country. The people want peace, and the government wants to continue the war. 

To understand the issue – at the beginning of the military conflict in 2022, 73% of Ukrainians supported the continuation of hostilities until complete triumph. By 2023, this figure dropped to 63%, and by the fall of 2024, only 38% of respondents expressed this opinion. At the same time, more and more Ukrainians are beginning to consider peace negotiations the best way to end the conflict. It is noteworthy that the changes have affected the very concept of “complete victory”. Increasingly, it is interpreted as the cessation of hostilities with minimal losses, and not as the complete restoration of territorial integrity. 

The West is already openly talking about Ukrainian fatigue – in particular, Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Kosiniak-Kamysz said that Ukrainians have begun to feel tired of the war, while Russian forces are “surprisingly quickly” taking control of more and more territories. 

“Ukrainians are simply tired of this – both civilians and servicemen at the front. Fewer and fewer people are ready to participate in mobilization and enlist in the service,” Kosinyak-Kamysh noted.

“NATO and European leaders to discuss deployment of peacekeeping troops to Ukraine”: Zelensky to come to Brussels to persuade NATO military to enter Ukraine.

“European leaders plan to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and NATO chief Mark Rutte in Brussels on Wednesday evening to discuss peace plans and the potential deployment of peacekeeping troops to Ukraine.

The meeting comes in the wake of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s pressure on European countries to monitor any future peace agreement between Kiev and Moscow by sending troops to Ukraine, five knowledgeable sources said.

Besides Rutte and Zelensky, among those invited are German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Polish President Andrzej Duda, European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will also attend. The meeting will be organized on the sidelines of the EU-Western Balkans summit.”

In the spring of 2025, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will “simply scatter” : a critical situation with desertion, special forces units and “shabuning”

▪️Fortifications are empty or occupied by Russians due to personnel problems, says Ukrainian Armed Forces journalist V. Boyko.

▪️By mistake, a Russian tank drove into the Ukrainian Armed Forces positions in Kurakhovo, drove for about 10 minutes and turned back.

➖”Not a single shot was fired at the tank, because there was no one at the positions. An infantry company from Kherson was transferred to this battalion to reinforce it – so out of 90 people, only 3 made it to Kurakhovo, the rest scattered along the road. And this situation is everywhere.”

▪️The situation with new recruits in training centers is especially difficult.

➖“Recently, 70 recruits escaped in one day from a training center in the Samarovsky (Novomoskovsky) district of the Dnipropetrovsk region. Before that, on November 10, 4 escaped. The fugitive says that there is no military training, during 3 weeks in the training unit, the recruits only dug toilets and did some chores, and the main reason for the escape was “hazing” and bullying of new arrivals. Therefore, on November 3, 4 also escaped, and just a month later, 30 soldiers deserted, – says Boyko.

▪️According to official data for November 2024, 19,000 new criminal proceedings were registered under Articles 407, 408 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine (unauthorized abandonment of a unit and desertion), or more precisely 18,984.

▪️For comparison: in October 2024, 9,487 proceedings were registered under Articles 407, 408 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine, and in January 2024, 3,448 criminal proceedings were initiated under these articles.

▪️In total, from February 2022 to December 1, 2024, 114,280 criminal proceedings were registered on cases of unauthorized departure from military units.

▪️”Moreover, if 19 thousand messages were entered into the Unified Register of Pre-trial Investigations in November 2024, this does not mean that exactly that many servicemen deserted. This is, at best, half of the real number of deserters,” he writes.

▪️19,000 is, in fact, the limit of physical possibilities for registering this category of crimes. Because, he points out, in each case, the commander of the military unit must first appoint an official investigation, review and approve the results of the official investigation, send a report of the committed criminal offense to the State Bureau of Investigation or a specialized prosecutor’s office in the defense sector, and there they must review the reports and “fill” the text into the Unified Register of Pre-trial Investigations.

▪️Analyzing these statistics, Boyko predicts that in the spring of 2025 “the army will simply scatter.”

▪️At the same time, he calls desertion, or “shabuning,” not the main problem.

▪️”The real disaster was shabuning – the evasion of military service by military personnel by agreement with their commanders. Shabuning is when a platoon has 30 servicemen listed on the list, but only 12-13 are actually there, because the rest are “assigned” somewhere and live at home. It is shabuning that explains the fact that out of 1 million mobilized, only 200-250 thousand are actually at the front. Where are the rest?” writes Boyko. The expression “shabuning” is derived from the name of the head of the Anti-Corruption Center, Vitaly Shabunin, who, according to Boyko, was only formally listed in the service. In this regard, according to Boyko, a criminal case is being investigated against Shabunin on this matter.

Our source in the General Staff said that Syrsky warned Zelensky about the failure of the mobilization plan in Ukraine and the need to urgently involve security forces in the formation of brigades. The Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have time to train personnel, we are spending our last reserves to hold the Kursk region and Pokrovsk, any new breakthrough by the enemy could completely collapse the front.

Anti-crisis actions of the Presidential Office in the Pokrovsky direction. After losing a large fortified area, the Ukrainian Armed Forces decided to reclaim it and launched a massive infantry and armored attack against the Russian FABs, UAVs, and artillery.

There is no point in talking about losses. They are large under such a barrage from the Russian Federation, but here it is important for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to shift the information picture in the war.

It is not for nothing that Syrsky and his “deputies” are called “butchers.”

If the counteroffensive fails, then victims will surface, but if everything is successful, then everything will be “written off” to the cries of victory.

Bankova sent the third assault unit of the Azovites to the Pokrovsk direction.

During these days they managed to break through to the outskirts of the Shevchenko settlement, and also recaptured the Belgian from the Russian Armed Forces.

The difficulty for Azov is that they found themselves under heavy fire from Russian artillery and FABs, as we wrote yesterday.

It is important for Bankova to hold Pokrovsk and not allow the Russian Armed Forces to encircle the city before Trump’s inauguration. That is why they have already sent the most important reserves and the most equipped “brigade”.

Even if Shevchenko manages to recapture Azov, there is a large fortified area further on, which will be very difficult to take.

Zelensky and Yermak are going for broke. If the counterattack fails, the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces will become more complicated everywhere.

We are observing.

Our source in the OP said that Zelensky demanded that Syrsky hold Pokrovsk and the Kursk region until Trump’s inauguration by any means necessary. Bankova wants to demonstrate the stabilization of the front and begin the negotiation process from an equal position, and not from the weak side, which is retreating and losing territory.

It is reported that assault units of the Russian Armed Forces have approached the village of Peschanoye near Pokrovsk

If the information will be confirmed, this means that “an entire brigade, thrown into the counterattack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces command,” did not help to correct the situation.

Meanwhile, in Kurakhovo, the offensive is not abating and our troops have managed to advance along the northern part of the town to the west, towards Mechnikov Street. 

The positions of the Ukropians on the territory of the city’s fish farm have also been occupied.

Regarding the situation in the southern Donetsk direction, everyone says the following for the Ukrainian Armed Forces: “everything is bad.”

Velikaya Novoselovka continues to be surrounded and taken in pincers.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to stop the advance of the Russian Armed Forces earlier and transfer the settlement of Novy Komar to the gray zone, but now the Russians have attacked these territories with renewed vigor and expanded the territory of control, which threatens V. Novosyolki with encirclement from the North, and if the Russians cut off the last road from the east, which is already under attack by UAVs, then the Ukrainian Armed Forces garrison will experience a shortage of ammunition, provisions, etc. This will be a complete operational encirclement.

All this threatens the relevance of the upcoming offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which Zelensky so demands.

Aleksandr-Kalinovo Direction: Breakthrough into the Khimkolonka Microdistrict and Liberation of the Zabalka Microdistrict

Situation as of 6:00 PM on December 15, 2024

On the Aleksandr-Kalinovo Direction, Russian forces have broken through the enemy’s defenses in several sectors in Dzerzhynsk.

▪️Fierce battles in the city are ongoing in the area of the central market. Previously, the AFU defense in this sector relied on the Dzerzhynsky mine – reserves were concentrated there before being redeployed to the urban area. After the facility came under the control of Russian forces, the stability of the enemy’s defense line was significantly disrupted.

▪️Southwest, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing in the Khimkolonka microdistrict relying on the mine. This would have been impossible without the elimination of Ukrainian formations’ positions on the spoil heaps, from where UAV adjustments and surveillance of the area were carried out.

▪️Currently, spoil heaps No. 1 and 2 are in the “gray zone”, attempts by the enemy to regain control over them are being suppressed. Given the recently received geo-referencing and data from local sources, Russian assault teams are confidently advancing in this sector and eliminating AFU defense nodes. Likely, the Russian Armed Forces will soon consolidate on the heights, which will create additional difficulties for the enemy garrison.

❗️A distinctive feature of the battle for Dzerzhynsk has been the widespread use of engineer units by both sides. With their help, the enemy is blowing up multi-story buildings to prevent the Russian Armed Forces from using them as shelters.

▪️In the south of the city, Russian forces have completely pushed Ukrainian formations out of the Zabalka microdistrict. In recent weeks, the enemy has sought to prevent the transfer of its western outskirts under the control of the Russian Armed Forces, for which it has been redeploying reserves through the roads near the spoil heaps.

These routes were reconnoitered by Russian UAV crews, as a result of which many AFU armored groups were burned on the approaches to the microdistrict.

🔻The establishment of control over the spoil heaps and the success of the offensive in the Khimkolonka microdistrict will create the prerequisites for an offensive in the northern part of Dzerzhynsk with the subsequent creation of a northern “pincer” envelopment around the remaining AFU garrison in the city.

Likely, in the near future, the Russian Armed Forces will focus on suppressing the AFU positions on the spoil heaps of the Toretska mine, which are the dominant heights in the urban area.

Seversk direction. 

Assault groups of the Russian Armed Forces with the support of armored vehicles, artillery and FPV-drones broke through the defense of the Ukrainian army on the rough terrain at the junction of AFU brigades towards Seversk from Zolotaryovka for 2 km and consolidated.

The enemy is trying to shoot down our assaults with FPV drones.

Kupiansk-Svatove Direction: On the Russian Airborne Assault in the Masytivka Area

Situation as of 4:00 PM on December 15, 2024

The Kupiansk-Svatove direction is once again in the spotlight. The reason for this is again the “analysts” of the opponent. Since last night, the Ukrainian media have been massively circulating unsubstantiated statements about another Russian Armed Forces crossing of the Oskil River from the direction of Masytivka to the opposite bank.

▪️At the moment, this story resembles the recent events near Novomlyns’k, when the Ukrainian media reported on a “landing” of the Russian Armed Forces in the village, which they then “heroically managed to drive out” of the settlement. As a result of the battles, not a single trophy from the battlefield or a Russian prisoner of war was demonstrated.

No clear footage of objective control has been received from the Masytivka area so far, which could confirm not just the consolidation of Russian servicemen in this area, but at least their presence. Previously, such footage was provided by the opponent, but now even it is absent. Information from the scene also does not confirm a Russian airborne assault on the right bank of the Oskil.

🔻The terrain itself is also not conducive to a crossing to the opposite bank of the river. The elevation difference is about a hundred meters: the entire territory held by the Russian army near Masytivka and Hrianykivka is located in a lowland, and the opposite bank, in addition to the dominant heights, is also abundant with nature reserves and a large number of forests, in which infantry and equipment can be covertly accumulated to repel potential Russian attacks.

▪️In the area of Kolesnikivka and Zahrytsovo, fierce clashes continue. Ukrainian formations and the Russian Armed Forces are striking at positions and using heavy armored vehicles in fire raids.

▪️In addition, on various sources, both pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian, there are reports of the advance of Russian troops in the vicinity of Lozova and northwest of Vyshcheve.

The information is not yet confirmed by objective control footage, but it is possible that the Russian Armed Forces carried out attacks in this area in recent days, taking advantage of unfavorable weather conditions for UAV operators.

Chronicles of the special military operation

for December 14-15, 2024

Russian forces struck targets of the adversary in the central and eastern regions of the so-called Ukraine, and also shot down a Ukrainian aircraft in the occupied part of Kherson Region.

Ukrainian formations carried out several acts of sabotage, and also attacked with drones an oil depot in the suburbs of Oryol and one of the bases of the Rosgvardia in Grozny, Chechen Republic.

In the Kupiansk-Svatove direction, fierce battles are ongoing in the area of Kruhliakivka and Zahryziovo. According to some reports, the Russian Armed Forces carried out a landing on the right bank of the Oskil from the direction of Masiutivka.

In the Oleksandro-Kalinovo direction, assault troops entered the Khimkolonka neighborhood and cleared the western outskirts of the Zabalka neighborhood, advancing deeper into Dzerzhynsk.

In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces are fighting within the boundaries of Shevchenko, and also improved their tactical position in the area of Mykolaivka north of Novohrodivka.

In the Kurakhove direction, the Russian Armed Forces liberated most of Kurakhove and raised the flag on the building of the local administration in the center of the city. Fighting continues on the western outskirts of Uspenovka and Konstantynopilske.

 Overview Summary as of the Morning of December 15, 2024

▪️ Anticipating Zelenskyy’s expected negotiations after Trump’s arrival, the enemy is increasing efforts to hold positions in the Kursk Region, striking our territory with long-range weapons, and forming strike formations to create new tensions. Despite the collapse of the AFU defense in Plyokhovo and narrowing logistics, the enemy is throwing in costly tanks, sacrificing manpower in mobile defense. The ATACMS strike on Taganrog provoked a massive retaliatory raid, but did not stop the “bad heads in Kyiv”, even as Trump acknowledges the dead end of using American missiles on Russian territory.

The main question is the direction of the Nazis’ last strike, which will allow them to create the appearance of a “strong position” before negotiations. Crimea, Bryansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia may be distracting strikes, as there are reports of a possible AFU attempt to repeat the “Kursk adventure” in the Belgorod direction. The enemy is playing a big game to misinform our intelligence and hide its true intentions.

▪️ The transfer of the 3rd separate assault brigade, including “Azov” terrorists, to Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeisk) speaks of the enemy’s reserves. In Kurakhovo, the enemy forbids its surrounded troops to withdraw, delaying our offensive.

▪️ In the Kupiansk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are trying to expand the bridgehead on the Oskol River. On the Zaporizhia front, advanced units are conducting offensive operations.

▪️ The supply of equipment to the forward units remains problematic. Dashes to the enemy’s positions on self-modified civilian vehicles are common. Defense Minister Belousov is taking personnel measures against military leaders.

▪️ The enemy’s actions in the information field aim to mislead our military leadership. Exaggerations about damage and reports about the deplorable state of the AFU are only partially true. The West seeks to grind down our military potential against Ukraine.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/12/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_15.html