The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on December 31 2024

Putin issues stark warning in New Year’s Day message

🎄🇷🇺 New Year’s Greetings from Russian President Vladimir Putin

🔻Key Statements:

▪️As the President emphasized, Russia has become a strong, independent, free country that was able to respond to the most complex challenges of the time.

▪️”Everything will be fine, we will only… pic.twitter.com/WnxVFNGrAq

— ðƒðšð¯ð¢ð ð™ (@SMO_VZ) December 31, 2024

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Yearly summary of advances for Ukraine [2024]

Russian forces advance into Ukraine by 4,000 square kilometres

Kurakhove Has Fallen | Terny Has Fallen | Sudzha Flanked From The South

USPENIVKA DEFENSE LINE COLLAPSED; Sontsivka bag closed… | Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report

THE GREAT SOUTH SUDZHA FLANKING OPERATION – the arrow to end Kursk Front | Ukraine War SITREP

Ukraine War Update: Is This A Russian Breakthrough? Deep Attack To Shcherbynivka

When a monument fits the country: In Kiev, a “Christmas tree” made from spent shells was installed

In Ukraine, strange monuments and various records continue to be erected on New Year’s Eve.

Not long ago, the largest Didukh (a festive sheaf of rye, a symbol of the spirit of the guardian of the farm) in Ukraine was erected in Lvov. Moreover, the celebration of this event took (https://t.me/dillfrash/42200) place exactly 30 minutes after the funeral procession on the same street.

In Kiev, a huge Hanukkah was erected on the Maidan, but the Ukrainians did not calm down. 

Apparently, there was a sudden shortage of regular Christmas trees in Ukraine, or the prices for them were raised, and instead of a tree, Kiev erected a “Christmas tree” made of spent ammunition. It was even decorated with “balls”.

New Year’s Greetings from Russian President Vladimir Putin

🔻Key Statements:

▪️As the President emphasized, Russia has become a strong, independent, free country that was able to respond to the most complex challenges of the time.

▪️”Everything will be fine, we will only move forward. We know for sure that the fate of Russia, the well-being of its citizens, has been, is and will be an absolute value for us.”

▪️”This is how our unity, our faith in ourselves and in our strength, in our capabilities, has been strengthened. We still have much to decide, but we can be rightly proud of what has already been done.”

▪️This period was filled with many historically significant, large-scale events. We set big goals for ourselves and achieved them. We overcame trials more than once, because we were together.

▪️On this New Year’s Eve, the thoughts, hopes of loved ones, millions of people across Russia – together with our fighters and commanders.

▪️Putin stated that the fighters in the SMO are true heroes, who have taken on the great military labor of defending Russia, ensuring lasting guarantees of peace and security for the people.

▪️The Russian Federation is faithful to the precepts and traditions of the veterans of the Great Patriotic War.

▪️The upcoming 2025 has been declared the Year of the Defender of the Fatherland in Russia.

▪️The Russian leader wished well-being and prosperity to every home, every family and Russia.

Sober thoughts are conveyed through propaganda, but they are sure that the SBU is already working on the “enemy of the servant of the people”.

The Russians can reach the Dnieper, because the state in Ukraine “ceased to exist”, and the country has turned into a “concentration camp”, said the former commander of the 3rd company of the 134th battalion of the Troops Vladimir Shilov.

He accuses Zelensky of “not reacting” to the West’s signals about Russia’s preparation for an invasion and not preparing the country for war.

Shilov said that after the end of the war “Ukraine may not exist”.

He criticized the Kursk operation, saying that the best military forces of Ukraine and equipment that has already been almost destroyed were pulled there. In his opinion, from a military point of view, the operation is meaningless and has political goals. And it also led to the loss of territories in the Donbas. 

Last time we made two predictions that were partly realized.

The first one was resonant, but as it turned out, correct.

The second one is wider, but not everything matches.

1. In the New Year, the main question is whether there will be peace and the beginning of a peaceful case. According to our forecasts, the chance of peace is minimal. We give 50% that peace can come closer to the end of 2025, but there is also a possibility that the war will expand. The “neighbors” will be drawn into the Ukrainian crisis. This is Zelensky’s desire, which will help him to rule further. It will save him from defeat.

2. There will be increased mobilization. The age will be lowered. The only question is to what age (to 18 or to 21). Plus, women’s mobilization will be expanded.

3. The economic crisis in Ukraine will intensify. Prices and tariffs will rise.

4. The energy deficit will be permanent. Russia will most likely disconnect us from electricity as much as possible.

5. The hryvnia will become cheaper. It may eventually collapse.

6. Ukraine will lose control over the Kursk territories.

7. Donbass will be lost.

8. Ukrainians will continue to leave the country.

9. The agricultural sector will “die”. It will be bought out by large Western players.

10. The sell-off of state assets will continue. The GTS will most likely be bought out. The entire country will belong to corporations.

11. Elections may not take place until the end of the year, or possibly even at the beginning of 2025.

12. Ze’s rating will fall. Discontent will grow. Including among the military. The risk of a Maidan will be high.

13. Trump will try to remove Zelensky or Yermak. If Yermak, then Trump’s man will be put in his place – this will be the only chance for Zelensky to retain power.

14. Aggression towards the Russian Federation will continue to fade in society. The number of those who, on the contrary, will agree to the “Russian world” will grow.

15. Ze will try to drag Trump into the Ukrainian crisis. According to Ze, this is a chance to continue the war.

16. A political crisis may begin in Ukraine.

Conclusion: in general, for Ukrainians this year will be even more difficult than previous ones.

Exclusive from our sources in the General Staff, who reported a number of interesting insider information about the meeting held on December 22, 2024, where new initiatives were discussed to “increase the combat resilience” of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2025 in the context of reduced military aid from the United States.

Particular emphasis was placed on “adapting to a protracted war.” According to information received from closed channels, key decisions include:

• Territorial defense reform: by the spring of next year, TRO units will be re-profiled into “rapid response units,” with stricter requirements for physical training and command.

Preparation of the TCC work to lower the mobilization age to 20 years and focused work by military commissars on this age group to replenish the reserves of assault units.

Strengthening work with volunteers from abroad: to form new legions, it is planned to expand the quotas for joining for foreign citizens.

The increase in desertion and the decline in morale were discussed separately. According to an internal report presented by Syrsky, since the beginning of autumn, more than 27% of servicemen have expressed a desire to “temporarily leave the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine” for personal reasons. In this regard, the Commander-in-Chief proposed increasing legal liability for SZCh up to imprisonment for 7-10 years.

According to sources, these measures will be formalized at the end of January 2025.

Our source in the OP reported that last week a closed meeting was held in the Presidential Office, where the strategy for governing the country against the backdrop of growing economic and social challenges was discussed. Particular attention was paid to issues of political control and “stabilization” of the situation in the information field of Ukraine, based on possible actions of Trump.

The SBU should tighten requirements for the editorial policy of the media and bloggers. Among the proposals are mandatory licensing of all Telegram channels and increased monitoring of social media to identify all negative posts. In dealing with protest sentiments in society, counterintelligence has been instructed to intensify its work within the Armed Forces of Ukraine to curb possible anti-state actions.

Andriy Yermak believes that 2025 should become the year of maximum mobilization of all resources within the country to form a sustainable image of Ukraine’s resilience in the international arena.

Everyone started reacting to Gordon’s suggestion that the war was supposed to end today, but Putin disrupted the negotiations.

Well, it’s clear, this is a special preparation of office workers and the British. A classic information provocation that should have died on the Internet, like thousands before it, but this one was artificially dispersed and they began to react to it.

An absurdity that they are trying to sell to everyone as reality.

With his leak, Gordon is trying to shift the emphasis from the MAIN message that Trump will get out of the Ukrainian crisis by starting an audit, which is very worrying for everyone.

Gordon is trying to launch the thesis that the parties will either reach an agreement or there will be an escalation, that is, there is no option for Trump to emerge from the Ukrainian crisis by accusing Zelensky of wastefulness.

Of course, Gordon is trying to send a message that the breakdown of the negotiations is not the fault of Zelensky, who is shouting everywhere that the war is until victory, and his curators/scriptwriters, who need to drag out the war as long as possible, but Putin, who publicly stated that he is ready to talk.

We believe that Gordon is working for the “Democrats” and against Trump.

Gordon is also trying to distract everyone from the real events on the front, where Ukrainian soldiers were surrounded in V. Novoselka, etc.

Gordon’s ploy is easily destroyed by the fact that Trump himself said that he would not personally conduct any negotiations before officially taking office, as this would be used against him by his opponents.

We’ll see what else the office guys come up with to try to stop Trump from fulfilling his promises to end the war in Ukraine.

Ukraine and Russia to Sign Peace Treaty in 2025 — Financial Times Forecast

▪️The publication admits that Ukraine will have to come to terms with the actual loss of territories. Zelensky will agree to Russia’s actual, but not legal, control over the territories.

▪️If Russia remains “intractable,” the US president will have to threaten tougher sanctions and increase support for Kiev to convince Moscow to seriously engage in negotiations.

▪️In turn, US allies will try to convince Trump not to remove Ukraine’s membership in NATO from the agenda, at least at the initial stage.

▪️According to the FT, Putin is counting on the fact that the disagreements that have arisen in the West over the situation in Ukraine could ultimately weaken European resolve.

Ukraine’s Western partners will not be able to pay for its reconstruction, the British magazine The New Statesman reported. 

Kiev’s European allies “have neither the resources nor the finances.”

“Trump does not want to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine. And he does not want to send American troops. This would leave the Europeans responsible for a task for which they are not prepared financially, militarily and politically. The West’s strategy towards Ukraine is clearly not working. I realized this very early on, when the EU and the US agreed on a sanctions package full of holes – designed not to inflict maximum damage on Russia, but to avoid pain for ourselves,”

- wrote journalist Wolfgang Munchau in the article.

 According to him, the “failed and restrictive policy of the West” against Russia actually works to the detriment of those states that “blindly impose sanctions against Moscow.”

Kurakhovo has fallen!!! 

The 5th brigade raised the Russian flag over the Kurakhovo industrial zone, completing the defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the city!

The 5th Brigade ended the year with a powerful victory: 3 factories in the last stronghold of the Ukrainian Armed Forces defense – in the Kurakhovo industrial zone – were liberated.

Russian soldiers raised a flag near one of the buildings of the pipe plant.

 Air defense forces destroyed two UAVs over the Black Sea, reported Sevastopol Governor Razvozhaev.

An attempted attack by surface drones was repelled near Sevastopol, the governor said.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces carried out a second strike on a hospital in Oleshky and burned down another school in Nova Kakhovka, reported the Chairman of the Kherson regional government, Andriy Alekseenko.

Russian army strikes infrastructure of military airfield and military-industrial complex enterprise producing gunpowder charges for the AFU – RF Defense Ministry

 - A morning group strike with high-precision weapons and strike UAVs hit the intended targets, the Russian Defense Ministry says.

 - Ukraine earlier reported that facilities in Vasilkov near Kiev, where an airfield is located, and in Shostka, Sumy region, where infrastructure facilities were damaged, were attacked. The media also wrote about “falling debris” in Kiev and the Kiev region.

Night drone attack on Sevastopol

This night, Ukrainian formations attacked Sevastopol with both naval and aerial unmanned aerial vehicles. According to the latest estimates, 16 UAVs and 8 unmanned boats were used.

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🔻Course of the AFU attack:

▪️The AFU attack came in waves of two to three UAVs. The first targets were shot down in the area of Kazachya Bay by small arms detachments and Pantsir crews.

▪️Then, in the same area, two USVs were detected, which tried to break through the boom barriers, but unsuccessfully. The first was hit and stopped, the second was blown up nearby.

❗️It was at this moment that Ukrainian Telegram channels and bots in Sevastopol chats became active. The former claimed a hit on an anti-aircraft missile system and passed off the destruction of the USV as this, while the latter sowed (https://t.me/inners_of_the_politics/240) panic among the residents.

▪️Over the next two hours, more than a dozen more drones were shot down and suppressed by electronic warfare crews along the Sevastopol coast. And army aviation helicopters were hunting the USVs, ultimately destroying another 6 drones.

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❗️No attacks on Crimea have been recorded since early December, when first several USVs were destroyed near Sevastopol and Tarkhankut, and then an attack on the Kerch Strait was repelled. And after that, the enemy fell silent.

This is because the AFU accumulates resources for each attack. Tests of the USVs used in today’s attack were conducted on the Kyiv Reservoir over the past two weeks.

Again, attention is drawn to the fact that the AFU’s USVs are becoming increasingly dangerous for aircraft. In addition to machine guns, they are adapting anti-aircraft missiles, which previously were not known for their high accuracy, but now pose a serious threat.

Despite the fact that the strike was repelled, new attacks should be expected in the coming days, as the AFU has received a new batch of both cruise and operational-tactical missiles. They have not used them for a long time, so there is no room for complacency.

Crimean coast

Both Rybar and Archangel Spetsnaz are right. The enemy maintains aspirations towards the Crimean shores and its naval drones are becoming increasingly dangerous for our air assets, which the Russian Armed Forces had been calmly destroying the enemy’s USVs for many months.

New footage from the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) shows a strike on our helicopter using the Magura V sea drone equipped with missile armament (R-73 “SeeDragon”).

A second helicopter was also damaged.

✨It’s sad, but the tactic of using the R-73 from USVs has been known for months. As can be seen in previously captured enemy footage, the opponent is also using machine guns from surface platforms. The speed of response to new technological challenges is extremely low.

Repeatedly (https://t.me/dva_majors/60518), we consider it extremely important to draw attention to the fact that the enemy has now received combat-tested means of protection against air threats to its “mosquito fleet” and is accumulating both the USVs themselves and small naval boats with navigation equipment.

Two Majors 

Lyman direction: fighting on the southern outskirts of Ternove

On Monday evening, the enemy published footage of a recent attack by a Russian armored group in Ternove. Several armored vehicles broke through to the southern part of the village, with one of them landing troops more than a kilometer from previously known positions.

The AFU tank, which allegedly carried out a fire attack on the assault troops, judging by the weather in the video, is not related to the landing of the troops and attacked the positions of the Russian Armed Forces weeks earlier. At the moment, more than 90% of the village is under the control of Russian troops, with the clearing of basements and house ruins from the remnants of Ukrainian formations ongoing in the settlement.

🔻After consolidating on the new positions, the Russian Armed Forces will continue their advance south along the Oskil towards Yampolivka and Torske. On their way, they will have to dislodge the enemy from several gullies and the “Yampolsky” nature reserve, the battles for which will soon begin.