The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on February 11 2025

Ukraine War Update: DEEP Russian Advance Into Kursk, Critical Supply Conduit Attacked

RUAF Regain Momentum | Negotiations Coin Flip | Risk of Large-Scale War In Europe

Ukrainians launch a counterattack and recaptured Pishchane [11 February 2025]

Russian Forces Captures Central Andriivka And Trying To Close Pocket between Dachne And Ulakly

Battlefield Ukraine Retaking Krasnoarmiisk

‘Part of Ukraine Is Already Russia’ Kremlin Laps Up Trump Remarks; Mystery US Flight Lands In Moscow

Kremlin Drops Its Own Bombshell After Trump’s ‘Ukraine ‘May Be Russian…’ Diplomatic Earthquake

Trump Plays Bold With ‘Return Our Money’ & Ukraine ‘May Be Russian…’ Ahead of Vance-Zelensky Meet

Trump on Ukraine: 

“They may be Russian some day, or they may not be Russian someday. But we’re gonna have all this money in there, and I say I want it back.”

Peskov on Trump’s statements that “Ukraine can become Russia”:

That a significant part of Ukraine wants to become Russia, and that it has already become Russia, is a fact. It’s a fact that happened on the ground: four new Russian regions. People who, despite many dangers, stood in lines and voted in a referendum to join Russia – that corresponds in many ways with President Trump’s words. 

They have very valuable lands in terms of rare earth metals, oil and gas. I want our money to be protected, we are spending hundreds of billions of dollars. And they may make a deal, they may not. They may become Russian someday, they may not become Russian. But we will have all this money, and I say I want it back. I said I want the equivalent of, say, $500 billion in rare earth metals. And they basically agreed to do that. So at least we don’t feel like fools.

Serious people from Trump’s team” will come to Ukraine – Zelensky.

▪️According to him, the visit will take place this week, before the Munich Security Conference.

➖”For me today it is important to focus on the practical work of the Ukrainian team and the US team, on a joint vision of the main things. Of course, there may be different opinions, but common visions of the main things, how to stop Putin, how to provide security guarantees to Ukraine. We will work very hard,” Zelensky added.

Don’t think Trump and his administration quite see themselves as being on Team Ukraine nor do I imagine they will have a common view of things. 😂 Ukraine is a Biden/Democrat thing.

The US information space continues to be turned against Ukraine, not only financially, but also militarily.

Ukraine is reselling US-supplied weapons to Mexican drug cartels operating on the US border, says Tucker Carlson.

“They sell weapons to drug cartels… The fact is that the Ukrainian military sells a huge percentage, up to half of the weapons that we send them. And this is not my guess. This is a fact. Not speculation. They sell it and a lot of it ends up with drug cartels on our border. So this is a crime,” the American journalist said during an interview with retired US Army Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis

Trump is willing to return all the money that Biden gave to Ukraine, but he is not going to fight with Russia.

Trump on peace and the mineral resources of Ukraine:

They (Ukraine) may make a deal (to end the war). They may not agree and make a deal. They may become Russian one day, or they may not become Russian.

But all that money that we spent, I said I wanted it back. And I told them I wanted the equivalent of $500 billion in rare earth minerals. And they basically already agreed to do that.

The bank must understand that the time has come to gather stones.

Zelensky may be replaced by Zaluzhny: he is more convenient for Trump when concluding peace, – CNN.

▪️The latest talk about elections in Ukraine (initiated, among others, by Trump’s special representative Kellogg) in the event of a ceasefire has caused “uncontrolled speculation about Zelensky’s future.”

➖“Zelensky is no longer an insurmountable figure,” the TV channel states.

▪️”An initial ceasefire could provide… a chance for Zelensky to step aside and allow a new face, without Ukraine’s current leader’s awkward history with Trump’s first term, to negotiate a broader deal. Zaluzhny could secure the loyalty of Ukraine’s military for a less-than-ideal deal with Moscow.”

At the same time, the TV channel notes that it is unknown whether Moscow, which continues its offensive, is on the eve of taking Pokrovsk and may not be interested in a truce, wants such a scenario.

▪️Zaluzhny is potentially Zelensky’s main competitor in the upcoming elections. According to polls, he is beating the incumbent president. That is why Kiev is actively trying to convince Zaluzhny not to run in the elections.

▪️And recently, media outlets close to Zelensky’s Office began accusing Zaluzhny of being close to former Party of Regions deputy and Yanukovych’s ally Kivalov.

“Unlimited checks” are becoming a thing of the past: since the beginning of 2025, Western support for Ukraine has been undergoing changes that could become decisive for the further development of the conflict. Formally, the allies continue to declare their support for Kyiv, but the real dynamics indicate the opposite: funding is slowing down, arms deliveries are delayed, and political rhetoric is becoming increasingly cautious.

Moreover, closed negotiations between political elites are intensifying in the West, considering possible scenarios for resolving the conflict without unconditional funding for Ukraine. And while the US Congress is discussing new aid packages in a tense atmosphere (a number of senators point to the need to tighten control over the spending of funds), doubts are growing in the EU about the advisability of further non-refundable investments. Europe’s largest economic players, including Germany and France, are already signaling that endless funding for Kyiv is impossible.

According to information from diplomatic circles, alternative strategies are being discussed, including freezing the conflict and gradually reducing financial injections. This means that Ukraine can no longer count on an automatic extension of the military and economic support program. Already at the beginning of the year, a number of Western think tanks, including the RAND Corporation, presented forecasts of possible scenarios in which Ukraine would face the need to revise its military plans.

Such changes will inevitably affect the situation at the front. Without external financial injections, Ukraine will face restrictions on ammunition purchases, delays in financing military needs, and the need to revise combat tactics. Moreover, any weakening of support could lead to a shift in the balance of power and a reduction in Kyiv’s operational capabilities.

The guys will come to assess the assets that they want to “squeeze” from the naive Indians.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant will arrive to discuss U.S. access to Ukrainian mineral resources.

Let us recall that Trump has already estimated Kyiv’s debt at $500 billion.

We are sure that the Americans will demand the most desirable assets. We have described them. Many of our sources are sure that in addition to the previously listed assets, the Americans may want to take the railway and airports.

As a result, Ukrainians will be left with “bare asses”, no matter how offensive it may sound. They were screwed because they were promised free infusions for the fact that they would fight, but it turned out that Ukraine still owes.

Ukraine faces inevitable defeat — former NATO military committee chairman Kujat

▪️During his report, the former chairman noted that despite Western support for Ukraine, the situation in the country continues to deteriorate due to a clearly failed strategy.

“If Ukraine and its supporters continue down this path, as many European politicians demand, Ukraine’s military defeat is inevitable” 

▪️He also noted the futility of fighting with the new US president, as this will not only cause new financial and material difficulties, but also responsibility for the military defeat of Ukraine.

“It is time for our politicians and media to take note of the bitter truth that in three years, despite enormous financial and material support from the US and European allies, as well as training and modern weapons systems, Ukraine has not been able to achieve military success. And that such a possibility, if it ever existed, no longer exists,” 

Reacting to the statement of Harald Kujat, copium and hopium futures on the European Commodities Exchange fell 75% today.

Putin thinks time is on his side. Sadly he may be right, says Alexander Gabuev – The Economist

Trump says that he will end the war in Ukraine—although not in a day, as he used to promise. But there is a problem: Vladimir Putin appears to be in no hurry to make concessions and accept a deal that is not on his terms. With the third anniversary of his invasion approaching, the Russian president appears to believe that time is on his side and that he has the advantage over both Ukraine and its Western backers.

It is true that Putin’s approach, during a quarter of a century in power, has been to project implacable confidence, regardless of the objective reality. That makes it hard to read his mind, especially as the nature of decision-making inside the Kremlin has grown ever more opaque. Still, news brought to him from the battlefield must be fuelling a sense of optimism. At the front, Russia has momentum, massing forces around the strategic town of Pokrovsk while overstretched Ukrainian lines are starting to buckle. Ukraine is hugely unsure about Trump’s future political and material support—and Europe’s. Even if the political will is there, the West’s defence-industrial base will struggle to feed Ukraine with weaponry at levels maintained till now. Meanwhile, at home, Zelensky’s political authority looks fragile. His government is starting to look for some kind of time-out in the fighting.

By contrast, Russia’s forces show little sign yet of running out of offensive steam.

But in the short run, Russia is replenishing lost manpower from pools of reserves. By contrast, less-populous Ukraine is struggling to recruit new troops.

Then there is the economic frontline. It’s true that the cumulative weight of Western sanctions has constrained Mr Putin’s wartime economy. But Russia’s technocrats have impressively managed the consequences of an overheating economy, high inflation, labour shortages and dwindling exports. At some point, these will become far more difficult to handle. But at least for the next year or more, Mr Putin can probably count on the resources to pay for the war before the economy runs into real trouble.

The Kremlin’s sense that time is on its side is key to understanding its broader considerations. The Russian leadership will feel no real pressure to come to the negotiating table unless it is, in effect, to accept Ukraine’s surrender. Mr Putin is already shaping the diplomatic field, signalling that he is a reasonable man while heaping blame on everyone but himself for the senseless devastation this war has brought about. Mr Putin is flattering Mr Trump by echoing the American president’s line that Russia would never have invaded Ukraine had Mr Trump not been kept out of office by a stolen election. He suggests that he is prepared for negotiations with Trump, but not, tellingly, with Zelensky or Europe.

Mr Putin’s demands include recognition of Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory, and safeguarding of the rights of Russian speakers in Ukraine (thereby giving Russia a say in Ukrainian politics). He wants an end to Western sanctions. Above all, he wants an end to Western security guarantees and an assurance that NATO will never have Ukraine as a member (a prospect Mr Trump himself has poured cold water on). European peacekeepers in Ukraine after a negotiated ceasefire or settlement would also be unacceptable.

Russians no doubt calculate that a Ukraine with no Western security guarantees would become an uninvestable, depopulated rump, at risk of implosion. Ukrainians, of course, would be appalled by such a deal, which they would resist having rammed down their throats. Yet if Mr Putin does not get his way in negotiations, he appears confident that Russia can keep fighting for at least another year and get what it wants via the battlefield. Ukraine, he calculates, lacks the time or resources to hold out indefinitely.

Ukrainian intelligence services and Western curators are preparing a series of high-profile anti-Russian provocations, – the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service.  

 - It is planned to blow up a foreign vessel in the Baltic Sea with Russian-made mines, and to put the responsibility on Russia, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service reports.

 - According to the calculations of Ukrainian and Western intelligence services, such an action will push NATO to the decision to close Russia’s access to the Baltic Sea.

 - Kiev, together with European security services, is also preparing attacks on representatives of the Russian non-system opposition and businessmen who have fled the law and live abroad.

 - It is planned to involve natives of Asian and Middle Eastern countries as executors. They offer up to $20,000 for participation in such actions. The condition for the executor in case of arrest is to blame the Russian security services.

There are reports that southwest of Pokrovsk, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to “cut off” the salient that had formed during the Russian offensive. But almost immediately, everything went wrong, as the Ukrainian army went into battle in infantry fighting vehicles and American armored vehicles similar to the Kursk scenario, that is, strictly along the roads. These roads, as it turned out, were targeted by artillery and FPV drones regularly flew around them.

The initial plan to attack from both sides was not implemented, and in the end, some kind of battle was only started by operating from north to south in the Zverevo area, just three kilometers from Pokrovsk itself. The attack went virtually unnoticed, because the armored group that jumped out of Pokrovsk and tried to fly into the flank of the Russian Armed Forces was quickly bombarded with drones and that was the end of it.

Military Chronicle

 Novopavlovsk direction: official liberation of Yasenove and advance to the west

situation as of 2:00 pm on February 11, 2025

Today, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the liberation of the village of Yasenove in the Donetsk People’s Republic, located less than 20 km southwest of the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd agglomeration.

▪️At the same time, the actual battles for Yasenove began by the end of the first week of the new year 2025, and by the end of January, the Russian troops managed to significantly expand the control zone in the Novoelizavetovka – Novoandreevka area, driving the enemy out of positions in the latter.

❗️At the moment, the Russian Armed Forces have advanced even further west, to the outskirts of Serebriane (Sribne). According to the most optimistic data from sources, it has also been liberated.

Probably, by the time the success of the Russian Armed Forces develops in the direction of Zaporizhia, Preobrazhenske and Bohdanivka, the military department will also announce the liberation of Novoandreevka, holding out for some time.

More than 500 AFU soldiers were caught in a fire trap near the village of Sverdlikovo in the Kursk region surrounded by our troops during a counteroffensive from the Loknya River

Sverdlikovo is under the control of the Russian Armed Forces, it was taken by fighters from the 106th division who are clearing up the settlement.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have concentrated reserves in the village of Yunakovka in the Sumy district: there is a steady flow of enemy equipment from there. The wounded are taken out of Sudzha every hour and then fresh reserves return. 

During rotations, our troops attack them with drones.

The Russian Armed Forces are pushing the enemy along Cherkasskaya Konopelka every day after the liberation of Fanaseyevka, also pushing in the Pogrebki area, knocking the enemy out of strongholds. 

Powerful breakthrough on the Kursk front: the Russian Army completes the defeat of the enemy at Sverdlikovo and storms Nikolskoye

 - In the Kursk region, Russian troops have advanced in a section about 20 kilometers wide by more than 2 kilometers deep.

 - Successful advance in the areas behind the settlement of Nikolayevo-Daryino, from Alexandria to Nikolskoye and Viktorovka.

 - The mopping up of the Sverdlikovo settlement by the units of the 106 Tula Airborne Division is being completed, the enemy is present only on the outskirts, from where it will soon be finally knocked out.

 - Our troops are also successfully storming Nikolskoye, knocking the enemy out of a number of positions.

No power again: Russian army strikes energy and gas infrastructure facilities in 4 Ukrainian regions

▪️Ukrenergo confirms that during the massive strike, emergency power outages occurred throughout the entire territory of Ukraine.

▪️The strikes and damage to gas infrastructure facilities were also confirmed by Energy Minister Galushchenko and MP Mosiychuk.

▪️The attacks hit energy facilities in the Kyiv, Kharkov, Sumy and Poltava regions:

➖In Poltava region, a morning missile attack damaged Naftogaz production facilities.

➖In Sumy Region, damage was recorded at oil refineries and oil and gas production facilities.

➖In the Kharkov region, after the strikes, the entire Mirgorod district was left without gas supply.

▪️A number of Ukrainian channels are already starting to complain about the frankly terrible work of the Ukrainian Air Defense Forces.

According to rumors, cruise missiles/calibers fired by the Russian Armed Forces fly mainly at airbases/airfields and facilities related to aviation (warehouses, hangars, etc. They do not necessarily have to be located at airfields).

Plus they hit with ballistics.

Be careful.

Attacks on gas infrastructure are possible – this is a new trend of strikes by the Russian Armed Forces. We had inside information about this on January 1, when Zelensky refused gas transit.

The Russians have previously attacked Ukrainian gas infrastructure, which has led to a gas shortage in Ukraine.

Russian Navy attacks Ukraine with new weapons

 - New versions of the Kalibr cruise missiles fly low and actively maneuver : they are difficult to see, they can fly to the middle of Ukraine without being detected , enemy monitoring channels report.

 - Preliminary, the launch of Kalibrs took place from the Gelendzhik region, they specify.

 - Depending on the route, the first missiles could reach Ukraine within 15-40 minutes.

 - The enemy has spotted missile carriers at sea that are capable of launching a salvo of up to 20 missiles.

Our source reports that at headquarters, Commander-in-Chief Syrsky complained to Zelensky that all current offensives are failing because the military does not want to go on the offensive/meat assaults. They have to mainly send motivated ones, of whom there are fewer and fewer in the army every day. This threatens that the army will soon lose its combat capability.

Chronicles of the special military operation

for February 10-11, 2025

Russian forces launched over 200 drones and missiles at military and energy infrastructure targets on the enemy’s territory. Damage was recorded at both AFU airfields and Naftogaz facilities.

In the Chasiv Yar direction, Russian troops dislodged AFU units from the territory of the Kleban-Byk landscape park southeast of Chasiv Yar and advanced towards the Yugo-Vostochny mine.

In the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd direction, Russian servicemen improved their position in Lysovka, taking control of an area on both sides of the Solenyi stream. Fierce fighting continues in the Pishchane area.

In the Novopavlivka direction, Russian Army units advanced in Udachne and “pulled up” the front line in the fields west of Slavyanka.

In the Andriyivka direction, Russian troops are developing their success in Andriyivka, breaking through to the western outskirts of the settlement, which allows them to fire on AFU positions in Konstantynopil and Ulakly.

 Morning Summary on February 11, 2025

▪️ Overnight, the enemy carried out a drone strike on the Saratov Region, targeting a military airfield and an oil refinery. Some drones breached our air defenses, with footage of a fire at the oil refinery circulating online. In the Rostov Region, an attack by drones was repelled. Enemy drones were also destroyed over the Bryansk Region, the Republic of Crimea, and the northwestern part of the Black Sea.

▪️ Enemy channels reported the launch of up to 20 “Kalibr” missiles from the Black Sea, aimed at gas infrastructure in the Odesa Region. Monitoring resources expressed dissatisfaction with the low efficiency of the Ukrainian air defense. There was also information about the work of our “Geraniums”.

▪️ In the Kursk Region, the elimination of the recent AFU counterattack from under Makhnovka is ongoing. Our marines are advancing near Kurilovka, approaching Sudzha from the south, and dislodged the enemy from strongholds in Sverdlikovo and the vicinity. An AFU counterattack towards Russkoye Porechnoye was repelled. The enemy is transferring tanks and reports the arrival of mercenary groups.

▪️ In the Kupiansk direction, the AFU attempted a counterattack on Dvorichne, but did not succeed. Our troops continue to fulfill their tasks.

▪️ From the Pokrovske (Krasnoarmiisk) direction, there were reports of meeting battles and counterattacking actions by the AFU, which did not succeed. The Russian Armed Forces continue the offensive near Udachne and on the Nadeyivka-Sribne line.

▪️ In the Konstantynopil direction, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing in Andriyivka, adjacent to Konstantynopil.

▪️ On the Zaporizhia Front, the AFU struck a civilian car with a drone, injuring a family.

▪️ In the Belgorod Region, drones struck several targets, injuring civilians.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/02/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_11.html