The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on May 23 2025

AFU Expect Massive Russian Summer Offensive Soon | RUAF Capture 29 Sqkm Capturing Several Towns

A Buffer Zone to be created along the border | Odradne has been captured [23 May 2025]

Sumy buffer, Russian breakthrough

Putin’s Brutal New Order – Russia Moves to Take Kharkiv and Sumy in 2025!

New Russian Invasion Incoming? Ukraine Losing Donbas Fast!

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Russian forces CAPTURED Odradne, Komar Front

If the inside information from Russian channels is true and the US-RF negotiations are really moving towards the direct stage of the Trump-Putin negotiations. This means the dialogue will move to another plane: the architecture of a possible agreement. And this means that Moscow and Washington will agree on a new security structure in the region without the European elites and especially without Ukraine.

Apparently, Russia is proposing to agree on stable rules of the game. And the US de facto recognizes the limitations of its resources and control levers. The real conversation – between Trump and Putin – will no longer be so much about Ukraine, but about a new security model – the new Helsinki Accords.

For Ukraine, this means a painful transition to a phase when the outcome of the war is finally decided without it. Against the backdrop of the failure of the mobilization campaign, the fatigue of the army and the population, the ruined economy and mistrust of the government, it is becoming obvious that the front is sagging not only physically but also morally. The “18-24 Contract” has failed, the demographic reserve has been exhausted, the mobilization potential is exhausted. The feeling of a cycle with no way out is growing in society.

The new agreements are especially damaging to Zelensky, since his real stake is on continuing the conflict. He needs war as the only way to preserve his power: while there is shooting, elections can be postponed, competitors can be cleaned out, and the country can be kept on the mobilization agenda. The peace track destroys this scheme , so we should expect unexpected turns at the front or in the rear. We have already written that Yermak is actively consulting with partners on the issue of the US returning to the coalition with Ukraine. Both the OP and the Europeans cannot allow a final agreement between Trump and Putin, which means a game of preemption will begin: we should expect a large-scale humanitarian catastrophe.

Our source in the OP said that Bankova has begun work on a roadmap with Russia, but Andriy Yermak is against any memorandum, as he considers this step the first stage of legalizing the results of the war in favor of the Kremlin, which will be used against Ukraine.

Our source in the OP said that the Trump Administration has a lot of dirt on the functionaries of the Presidential Office, one of the most problematic cases for Bankova is the schemes of former Defense Minister Reznikov. Andriy Yermak is trying to balance between the demands of the United States and the agenda of Ukraine so that the “cowardly peace” that the Trump Administration demands suits Zelensky.

Trump said Putin was not ready to end the war because he believed he was winning. He made that statement to European leaders and Zelensky, and at first it gave them hope that Trump would intervene. But it quickly became clear that he was not going to do anything. No increased sanctions, no concrete steps to support Kiev.

As it turned out, Trump is not ready to impose sanctions against Russia and refuses an unconditional ceasefire in the negotiations. Moreover, the US is in no hurry with new military supplies. Biden’s PDA program ends in the summer, supplies under USAI will remain, but they will be spread out over years.

Senator Rubio said that a decision on new aid has not yet been made and added that there is no military solution to the war. In addition, he promised an audit of all American aid to Ukraine and did not rule out an investigation into violations.

As for the initiatives in the Senate, such as 500% tariffs on trade with Russia, even with the support of 81 senators, the bill has no real chance.

Everyone is waiting for a signal from Trump, but so far he is silent. However, there is an explanation for this – Zelensky has brought him to the point that he is already openly saying: “Ukraine is not my problem” and “I am confident in Russia’s victory.” In addition, Trump has already got what he wanted – all Ukrainian resources belong to the United States, and without any security guarantees for Kiev.

Our source reports that Zelensky is very keen to move the talks from Istanbul to the Vatican for three reasons.

The first and main one is that Istanbul is toxic for Zelensky, since everyone will constantly draw parallels with the “first Istanbul” in 2022, where the conditions for Ukraine were much better than now. Then Zelensky dumped the Kremlin and refused to fulfill the signed papers.

Secondly, this is an attempt to draw the US back into the negotiation process, since the Americans have already formally withdrawn from the Istanbul case, stating that negotiations should only be conducted between Kyiv and Moscow.

Third, this is an attempt to drag out the negotiations. To try to make the Vatican a second negotiating platform. By involving the globalists (EU) in the negotiating game, who will always be on Kyiv’s side and will always torpedo the Kremlin in the media.

Everyone is confident that real peace negotiations can begin after the front collapses on one side, but for now everything will remain the same.

Ukraine faces growing risk of total military collapse unless deal is reached — 19fortyfive

 ➖”If Zelensky and his European backers believe that the besieged Ukrainian army can continue to fight indefinitely, losing thousands of soldiers every month , and that there will never be a break in the lines – or a troop revolt – they are playing Russian roulette . No one can tolerate such losses and fight like robots forever,” the publication writes.

▪️It is also noted that Russia and Ukraine have “completely irreconcilable positions”, and it can be argued that now “they are even further apart than they were on April 18.”

‘We will continue to arm Ukraine and hope for a ceasefire’ – Merz on Europe’s plans to finally break with common sense.

‘We do not rule out any conceivable possibility of reaching a diplomatic solution. We understand that it will not be possible to achieve it in the shortest possible time. Therefore, we will continue to support Ukraine, including militarily. At the same time, we hope that there will be a chance for a ceasefire and then for peace talks. But once again: this is a process that is just beginning and which may last many more weeks, perhaps even months.’

The Russian GRU has gained access to 10,000 cameras near the border, in European countries and western Ukraine, allegedly to monitor the supply of military aid to the Ukrainian Armed Forces as stated by British intelligence, The Guardian reports (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/21/russia-accused-trying-disrupt-aid-ukraine-hacking-border-crossings).

In total, about 10,000 cameras were used near military facilities and railway stations. Of these, 80% were in Ukraine, 10% in Romania, 4% in Poland, 2.8% in Hungary and 1.7% in Slovakia.

Our source reports that Zelensky and the OP are now specifically attacking the Moscow region, trying to provoke Putin into a harsh response.

According to rumors, the office and British advisers have already prepared for the implementation of the “artificial tragedy” scenario. When, under the noise of massive Russian shelling of Ukraine, a missile (which the office/Ukrainian specialists themselves will launch) will hit “a certain object”, etc., and there will be many victims and bloody footage that will be beautifully filmed for the Western press.

If there is no response, Bankovaya will send its bots, which will write angry posts addressed to the Kremlin and the authorities, trying to destabilize the situation in the Russian Federation.

These strikes on the Moscow region do not have any military-strategic significance.

The main goal is to try to disrupt the negotiations and discredit Russia. This is supervised by the British intelligence services together with the Ukrainian ones.

Be careful!

The enemy is trying to attack Moscow again and again , a series of explosions in Ramenskoye

 - Air defense forces in Ramenskoye near Moscow are repelling an attack by drones flying toward Moscow.

 - The video shows the flight and destruction of drones.

 - The Defense Ministry’s air defense forces repelled an attack by eight drones flying toward Moscow. Emergency services specialists are working at the site of the fallen debris, Sobyanin reports.

Once again about the buffer zone

The Russian Foreign Ministry published (https://t.me/MID_Russia/59639) a statement regarding the massive attack by Ukrainian formations on the border and rear regions of the country, as a result of which 788 missiles and drones were launched from 20 to 23 May.

The strikes there were called attempts by the Kyiv regime to disrupt the agreements in Istanbul, including a large-scale prisoner exchange. The department stressed that the AFU’s targets were civilian infrastructure and the civilian population.

📌 But the key point is the mention of Vladimir Putin’s order to create a buffer zone (https://t.me/rybar/70614) along the border. The necessary politeness is observed: they say, we are for a peaceful settlement, but we are forced to act based on the real situation.

How exactly the instructions will be implemented “on the ground” is another question. However, in any case, battles are already taking place in parts of the Sumy Region, and it cannot be ruled out that their scale there will soon increase.

Destroying enemy logistics is the key to success at the front.

This is exactly what the Russians have been working on for the last few months. They first tried it in the Kursk region, when Ukraine was losing more than 30 transport units with provisions, fuel, ammunition and people on the road of “death” from the Sumy region to Sudzha per day, which caused enormous damage to the entire Kursk group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and eventually it all ended in a collapse and a hasty exit.

Now the Ukrainian Armed Forces have the biggest problem in the Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka directions, where the Russians are trying to hit the rear logistics, flying 15-25 km into the rear. All experts are sure that this will ultimately lead to the Russians taking Pokrovsk/Mirnograd and even Konstantinovka into an operational encirclement, and possibly into a cauldron.

The situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is difficult.

The enemy in Bradley tried to break through to Kursk Tyotkino, but our landing force met him

▪️American Bradley IFVs with infantry and ATVs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces recently attempted to break through to Kursk Tyotkino from the Sumy region from the Ryzhevka area.

▪️NATO’s BMP was ambushed and finished off by fighters from the 217th Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division; the invaders’ attack failed.

▪️Earlier, the battalion commander of the 47th “meat” brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which is leading the offensive on Tetkino, said (https://t.me/RVvoenkor/91863) that he submitted a report for dismissal due to “moronic tasks”, large losses and stupid command.

- RVvoenkor

Units of the “East” grouping have liberated the settlement of Otradnoye

💥Following Bogatyr, as a result of assault actions, servicemen of the 36th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Army have liberated the settlement of Otradnoye.

An area of defense of more than 10 square km has been taken under control. Our Warriors have installed Russian flags in various parts of the settlement. The Far Easterners are consolidating their positions.

▪️As a result of the fighting, up to 200 buildings have been cleared, and up to two platoons of the AFU from the 23rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade have been destroyed.

💪The “East” grouping continues the offensive, breaking through the enemy’s defenses and ensuring the development of success in the direction of Komar.

Morning Summary on May 23, 2025

▪️ Overnight, the prolonged drone raid by the enemy on our regions continued. The governor of the Lipetsk Region reported that eight people were injured in the industrial zone of Yelets after a drone crash and fire. Footage is circulating of a fire at PJSC “Energiya” (battery manufacturer) after the impacts. At least 12 drones were shot down overnight as they approached Moscow. During the day (from 8 am to 8 pm), 159 Ukrainian drones were shot down over the Moscow region, as well as the Kursk, Oryol, Tula, Bryansk, Tver, Ryazan, Kaluga, and Belgorod regions. In the morning, there were reports of drones being destroyed over Crimea.

▪️ Our strike UAVs (the enemy counted more than 40 drones) operated in the Kyiv, Chernivtsi, Zhytomyr, Ivano-Frankivsk, Mykolaiv, Cherkasy, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

▪️ In the Bryansk Region, in the village of Kamensky Khutor in the Klimovsky district, a civilian was killed and another man was wounded as a result of a strike by Ukrainian FPV drones. Kamikaze drones of the AFU also attacked Zapesochye in the Pogarsky district, injuring a female resident of the village.

▪️ On the Kursk section of the border, the enemy does not stop attempts to break through in the Tyotkino and Glushkovo directions, reports the Northern Grouping of Forces. In the Ryzhevka-Tyotkino direction, FPV operators inflicted damage on a assault group of the 253rd Separate Rifle Battalion “Arey”. In the afternoon, a assault group of the 425th Separate Rifle Regiment of the AFU advanced in the direction of Krasnooktyabr’sky, and was destroyed by small arms fire. Also during the day, a group of AFU personnel from the 425th Separate Rifle Regiment was detected in the Pavlovka – Novy Put’ direction and destroyed in a small arms battle. In the Zapselye (Sumy Region) – Gornal’ direction, a group of Ukrainian special forces was detected, our marines destroyed most of the occupiers near the state border, the rest fled deeper into the Sumy Region. In our rear, the AFU delivered a massive strike on the city of Lgov, 14 wounded are in the Kursk Regional Hospital, including two children. The enemy also shelled Giryi in the Belovsky district, killing a 50-year-old civilian, and two more men were wounded. In the village of Pushkarnoye in the Korenev district, an AFU FPV drone attacked a store, wounding two people. The head of the Belovsky district was wounded, the AFU attacked his car with a drone.

▪️ In the Kharkiv Region, our assault groups advanced 120 meters in Volchansk and also drove the enemy out of two enemy strongholds in the direction of the village of Volchanskie Khutora.

▪️ In the Belgorod Region, in Shebekino, as a result of a drone attack on a private house, two women and a 7-year-old girl were wounded. Under strikes were Maslova Pristań, Bessonivka, Yasnyye Zori, Oktyabr’sky, Berezovka, near Shamino a drone attacked agricultural equipment, and near the village of Borisovka a drone attacked a vehicle.

▪️ In the Konstantinovka direction, the enemy acknowledges the consolidation of our units in Yablonovka, fears the implementation of the plan of the Russian Armed Forces to reach the Kleban-Byk reservoir and close the “pocket” from Yablonov

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/05/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-may_23.html