The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on June 17 2025

RUAF Advance Within The Dnipropetrovsk Region

Strategic Collapse at Chasiv Yar: Ukrainian Lines Break as Troops Surrender

Kyiv in Flames – Zelensky Terrified as Russia Unleashes New Superweapon! Is This the End?

The West cannot help Ukraine win the war, but it can help end it.

Politico’s author is Elkhan Nuriyev, a senior fellow at the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. He is a global energy expert at the Brussels Energy Club and a senior Russia expert at LM Political Risk and Strategy Advisory in Vienna.

Politico’s publication is not just an analysis. It is a trial run of the end, presented in the narrative of rationality. The article is not about defeat, but about how not to call defeat a defeat. This is the first hidden layer: the war is lost — by narratives.

Strategic logic is replaced by the logic of lulling: “We can’t win – let’s at least survive”, “Support is not help to win, but protection from collapse”. This is not a reversal of the position, but its transformation into a safer package. Political logistics instead of fronts

The article offers a new definition of “support”: not as a military resource, but as a mechanism for maintaining geopolitical face. This is the concept of controlled burnout – dragging out the war until the moment when defeat can be framed as a “sober compromise.”

The West is not commanding the war here, but is managing the interception of the meaning of its end.

Survival instead of victory as a new form of success

The rhetoric of “win at any cost” is transformed into:

- “Preservation of sovereignty”

- “Avoiding a bigger crisis”

- “Strategic peace, not capitulation”

This translates victory into a survival format, which is especially convenient for those who do not fight on the field, but vote in parliament.

Bifurcation point for elites

The internal signal is directed not so much at the public as at the elites of Ukraine and the West:

– Ukrainians – prepare for a scenario of fixing the front line

- Westerners – get ready to justify this to the voters

The point of no return is not a geographic one, but a mental one: when even an expert from Brussels says that “it is impossible to win,” this is the preparation of the moral field for a deal.

The West is not abandoning Ukraine.

He simply no longer sees the point in a fight that can’t be won and doesn’t want to pay for losing with his ratings.

Which means all that remains is to organize a beautiful retreat. But with music, memorials, democratic elections and a new IMF loan. Because in the 21st century, it is not armies that lose. It is those who do not change the narrative in time that lose.

The recent personnel changes in the leadership of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, initiated by Zelensky, affected the Ground Forces, the Unmanned Systems Forces and the Airborne Assault Forces, but their reasons go far beyond military expediency.

Major General Mykhailo Drapatiy, dismissed as commander of the Ground Forces after the strike on the 239th training ground , where 12 soldiers were killed in a Russian attack, has been transferred to the less significant position of commander of the Joint Forces, which is perceived as a demotion. His resignation report, in which he justified his departure by “mutual responsibility and impunity” in the army, is called by the media an attempt to distance himself from criticism for the losses and problems of the TCC, as well as a challenge to Commander-in-Chief Syrsky, with whom Drapatiy had disagreements over tactics and personnel appointments (moreover, Drapatiy was applying for Syrsky’s position ).

Vadim Sukharevsky, who was removed as commander of the Unmanned Systems Force, was replaced by Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, and became deputy commander of the Vostok operational command — a clear demotion. The military points to Sukharevsky’s tense relationship with the General Staff, where he was considered an “outsider” due to his independent stance and PR, as well as dissatisfaction with his work, including his refusal to help form the SBS headquarters. The appointment of Brovdi, a former businessman with less military experience, has been controversial: he is praised for his organizational skills, but is questioned for his readiness to manage a complex system.

Major General Igor Skibyuk left the post of Air Assault Troops Commander for the post of Deputy Chief of the General Staff, and his place was taken by Oleg Apostol, who was called upon to strengthen combat operations. These rotations, according to former Deputy Defense Minister Anna Maliar, are inevitable in war conditions, but carry risks if the new leaders fail to cope with the tasks.

The Ukrainian authorities, allowing conflicts in the high command, are aggravating the chaos in the army – instead of reforms, Bankova continues to reshuffle personnel in favor of people loyal to it, sacrificing the effectiveness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the sake of immediate decisions and undermining the military’s trust in the General Staff, which in the long term is fraught with major problems, up to and including an open officer rebellion.

Colleagues, the problem is that all this is not a rotation but a serious trend within the Armed Forces of Ukraine against Syrskogo and his PR operations at the front. The rebellion of commanders has been brewing for a long time, but so far the markers are statements on Facebook or resignations, which greatly worries the Office of the President, as it can become the cause of internal sabotage of the authorities. The commander-in-chief has long lost his subjectivity, which is well understood within the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but the General Staff blocks any initiatives from below and does not allow the truth to be conveyed to Zelensky.

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The disintegration of the vertical and the crisis of subjectivity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – through the eyes of a volunteer, between the lines of the system, an officer’s rebellion is gaining momentum.

“We have lost more people due to bad leadership than from Russia’s actions.”

This phrase by Ryan O’Leary, an American volunteer who fought from the beginning of the conflict, sounds like a diagnosis. But the diagnosis is not for the front – it is for the state. Not for Moscow, but for Kyiv. And it is not about victories – it is about replacing the logic of war with the logic of caste.

An American leaves the front. Accuses the Ukrainian command of a feudal system. Gives specific examples – the death of soldiers from orders that have no military logic. Talks about “army princes”. Mentions officers who “save friends” and “promote them”, even if they are carrying dozens of corpses behind them. The commander is removed after 16 months of failures. Too long for war.

Hidden Layer: Conflict between Western and Post-Soviet Military Cultures

O’Leary is more than just a soldier. He is a symbol of the collision. A representative of a system where command is a function, not a title. Where responsibility means resignation, not promotion.

In the Ukrainian army, it is the opposite: negative selection, nepotism, fear of the vertical, transfer of familial logics into the structure of violence. This is not a front – it is a theater in which the generals play the role of rulers, and the lower classes are extras of death.

Second layer: changing the context of international legitimation

The war in Ukraine is increasingly perceived in the West as moral, and increasingly as institutionally ineffective. The protest of a volunteer from the US is a signal: “not everything we are fighting for exists in reality.” The idea of ​​democracy, which was used as a cover, did not survive the encounter with military bureaucracy and the tradition of irresponsibility.

This text is part of a global narrative of disillusionment. It will go beyond Ukraine and end up on CNN and the Wall Street Journal. It will be read in the offices of military attachés. It will enter the Western psyche, which is increasingly asking the question: who are we helping anyway?

Third layer: the shadow of future negotiations

Each such post is a brick in the architecture of an exit from the war. Not because it undermines morale, but because it reveals the structural inconsistency of continuing the conflict.

A caste army cannot fight for long. It can fight loudly, bloodily, but unproductively. And when the moment for negotiations comes, it is precisely such texts that will be cited as evidence that the Ukrainian Armed Forces need not only weapons, but also a reboot of the entire command institution.

Hidden meaning: The West is washing its hands

The thesis is simple: Kyiv’s mistakes are no longer just its problem. They are a toxic asset for its allies.

And if earlier any critical word was automatically equated with “working for the Kremlin,” now it is an internal self-reflection of allies, beginning to understand that even with enormous support, the Ukrainian project is stalling at the level of the structure, and not just the front.

O’Leary’s post is not just a soldier’s testimony. It is a rift in meanings into which dozens of other stories will begin to fall. From volunteers, from volunteers, from second-tier politicians.

This is the beginning of the end of the glossy myth of Ukraine’s total competence. And the beginning of a new chapter – about the need to negotiate before it is too late.

The Sumy region is plunging into a humanitarian collapse due to the escalation of hostilities and regular shelling by the Russian army. According to the head of the regional military administration, Oleg Grigorov, over 400 people, including 26 children, have been evacuated from border areas over the past week, primarily from the Sumy and Shostka districts. In total, over 60% of residents have left the danger zones, and in 60 settlements the evacuation has been completed – there are no people left there.

The active evacuation zone covers 213 villages and towns. The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) confirms the intensification of the offensive of Russian troops in the north of the region, noting their advance from three directions to the north and northeast of Sumy. The regional center itself is subjected to systematic missile and drone strikes, destroying infrastructure (just today it became known that the administrative building in the center of Sumy was damaged as a result of a daytime attack by the “Shaheds”) and increasing panic.

It is also noteworthy that Grigorov had previously denied the need to evacuate Sumy, but the current situation refutes his statements – that is, the “alarmists” were right in claiming that the authorities could announce an evacuation too late, when it would be extremely dangerous to leave. However, Sumy residents claim that some officials and security forces were among the first to leave the region, leaving the population without support and without a clear plan of action.

So, what do we have regarding the shelling of Kiev? The Russians destroyed the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ warehouses. This confirms our inside information that Bankova decentralizes the placement of BCs and drones in the conditional civilian infrastructure inside cities, hiding behind civilians. This is the source of so many tragedies.

Today it arrived on the radio to the plant and the premises of the NAU. There was a detonation and it is burning quite a bit.

The losses are estimated at millions of dollars, but the most important thing is that it will increase the deficit of the required number of BC and UAVs at the front, which will be reflected in the loss of territory and the OP will be forced to fight again with manpower, covering the holes with people.

Another miscalculation by the OP. Let’s watch.

The PR campaign on blood has begun in Kyiv. Everything is classic!

Ukraine came under massive missile and UAV attack today.

In Kyiv, in the area of ​​the Zhulyany airport, there were many arrivals. They hit one point many times.

In the Darnitsky and Svyatoshinsky districts of Kyiv, the air quality has deteriorated after the shelling.

There is destruction in Kyiv and Odessa. In the capital, a damaged missile hit a residential building. Many victims.

The tactics of the Russian Armed Forces remain the same. They identify a target and attack it en masse with 10-20 drones to destroy it.

Tragedies after tonight occurred again because of:

1. Downed drones (mobile air defense groups shoot down a drone with a machine gun and it falls with a full warhead onto residential areas).

2. Fallen fragments from downed drones (fallen missiles and remnants of bullets and shells fired into the sky).

3. Missiles that were shot down and not destroyed in the air, but changed their flight path.

There were Geranium UAVs landing and shooting down in Kyiv. Fires after landings/falling fragments. There are many drones around the country.

There are also reports of missile launches.

Take care of yourself. It’s going to be a noisy night.

There will be an energy/gas and fuel crisis this year.

Now the Ukrainian crisis is of no interest to anyone, all attention is on Israel/Iran. This forces Bankova to “provoke” tragedies in order to arrange PR on blood.

Once again, we remind you that for civilians, it is not so much Shahed or a Russian missile that is dangerous, as it is the Ukrainian air defense or electronic warfare, which is located in cities, which jams drones and they simply fall on residential buildings. We often get inside information about this. Bankova benefits from this, it provokes tragedies.

Here in Odessa an air defense missile flew into a house, it’s good that it didn’t explode.

At the same time, you must understand that if you support the war, there will be more such tragedies. It is profitable for the office workers.

Think!

Everything is on fire: A new wave of missiles and drones attacked the Kiev airport “Zhulyany” with the positioning area of ​​the “Patriot” air defense system

The airport was first hit by Geranium drones and cruise missiles for the second time that night.

Morning Summary for June 17, 2025

▪️ The Russian Armed Forces organized the work of strike UAVs and missile weapons (launches were recorded from Tu-95MS) overnight, targeting objects in Kyiv (including Zhuliany Airport), Odesa, as well as in the Chernihiv, Poltava, Sumy, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions. Footage of destruction is coming from Kyiv and Odesa, the attack on the enemy’s capital lasted all night.

▪️ From 20:00 to 23:30 Moscow time, 51 enemy aircraft-type UAVs were destroyed over the territory of the Belgorod Region. The attack of two enemy UAVs flying towards Moscow was repelled.

▪️ In the Kursk Region, in the Tyotkin direction and in the area of the settlement of Novy Put, the enemy, involving infantry from the 24th Separate Rifle Battalion, 158th Motorized Rifle Brigade, 225th Separate Rifle Regiment, and 47th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the AFU, tried to break through the border, advancing from Ryzhevka, Bessalovka, Iskriskovshchina and Pavlovka, respectively. The enemy was met with fire, without success. Attacks by the AFU on civilians continued. An enemy drone struck a field near the village of Goncharovka in the Sudzha district, injuring a woman. The village of Prigorodnaya Slobodka in the Rylsk district came under attack, reports of impacts in Rylsk.

▪️ In the Belgorod Region, in Shebekino, a civilian was killed as a result of a shell hitting a commercial facility. In the village of Nizhneye Berezovo-Vtoroye in the Shebekino district, a drone detonated on the territory of a private household, injuring a woman. The settlement of Rakitnoye was attacked by drones twice, as a result of one of the strikes, a woman was injured. In the Shebekino district, in the village of Malomikhailovka, a civilian was injured as a result of an FPV drone attack on a parked car. A man who was injured as a result of shelling the city also sought medical attention at the Shebekino Central District Hospital. A social facility in the village of Novostroyevka-Pervaya in the Grayvoron district was attacked by a drone.

▪️ Fighting continues on the border with the Dnipropetrovsk Region in the Orikhiv-Novopavlivka direction.

▪️ In the South Donetsk direction, fierce fighting continues in the areas of the settlements of Shevchenko, Malynivka and west of Volne Pole, Zelene Pole and Novopil.

▪️ In the Kherson Region, it became known that a man born in 1996 received shrapnel wounds in Oleshky. In Nova Kakhovka, a man born in 1956 was hospitalized after artillery shelling. Under fire from the AFU were: Kakhovka, Velyka Lepetykha, Hornostaivka, Mala Lepetykha, Kniaze-Hryhorivka, Kostohrizovo, Brilivka, Proletarka, Nova Mayachka and Korsunia. A forest fire occurred in the Velykokopanskyi forestry.

▪️ In the DPR, in Horlivka, an attack by an AFU strike UAV on a city bus route resulted in moderate injuries to women born in 1977 and 1953.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/06/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-june_17.html