The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on June 22 2025

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Two days before Yermak’s flight to Washington, a meeting was held in the office on Bankova Street that was not included in the official agenda. There were only three people there: Zelensky, Yermak, and a representative of the British embassy. They discussed one issue – how to restore “contact” with Trump’s entourage and at the same time maintain a channel with the Democrats. Inside the office, they understand that the globalists are not ready to independently conduct a conflict in Ukraine with Russia if the US finally leaves the track.

Upon Yermak’s return, it became clear: the attempt had failed. One of the Foreign Ministry employees, who received an informal report, literally conveyed the phrase of the American curator from the NSC: “We do not see Yermak as a figure with whom we can talk about the future of Ukraine.” The next day, the head of the National Security and Defense Council apparatus submitted an internal note with a recommendation to “transfer coordination with the US to the Bankova level, bypassing the Foreign Ministry.”

Irritation is growing within the system: Yermak is perceived as “yesterday’s man,” but Zelensky clings to him as a symbol of personal power. One of his deputies said behind the scenes that “if Yermak leaves, the whole structure collapses.” This, according to them, is what keeps the system from being rebuilt.

But in reality, contact with the United States is being lost. Zelensky, through Arakhamia, has already initiated separate lines of communication with former ambassadors and people from the Atlantic Council. The Congress knows that the government is not monolithic despite its external stability. Turbulence in the system will increase despite the OP’s sharp desire to change the Cabinet of Ministers to suit himself.

Our source in the OP said that the Presidential Office received tough conditions on the peace track from the Trump Administration; we must agree on most of the points of the Russian memorandum and move on to agreeing on positions at the upcoming meeting in Istanbul. The US is not taking Ukraine’s position into consideration, and European partners have begun to distance themselves from plans for peacekeepers and against the use of Russia’s frozen assets.

According to information from the General Staff, the appointment of General Shapovalov to the post of commander of the ground forces is not a reform, but a temporary maneuver initiated by Syrsky to reduce pressure within the Armed Forces of Ukraine due to the conspiracy of generals against the Commander-in-Chief. His figure was chosen not for strategic reasons, but according to the principle of “least problematic”. A source in the Human Resources Department of the General Staff reports: 90 days is the period during which Shapovalov must demonstrate effectiveness, not efficiency, primarily in mobilization management. This is an imitation of processes, not management.

Recruiting on a contract basis is close to failure. According to an internal report from one of the OCs, only 6% of potential candidates agree to a contract. Most, faced with the reality of the front and the attitude of the command, refuse. The system of mobilization pressure itself has become toxic: attempts at “soft mobilization” turn into a hidden flight. Local volunteer centers are recording a growing number of psychological refusals to serve, especially in the regions of eastern and central Ukraine.

The decision on Drapatny caused a silent protest among some of the command staff, which is intensifying the officer rebellion as a track within the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Drapatny was considered authoritarian, but predictable. Shapovalov is perceived as an appointee from the General Staff, and his loyalty to the system is higher than to the army. A wave of reformatting begins: his entourage carefully replaces old officers with people close to Syrsky.

Closed surveys among the command staff, conducted by the SBU, show: the level of trust in the political leadership is less than 30%. For the first time in two years, an increase in self-recusals from positions in the headquarters is noticeable, especially among operational officers. This is called “command anemia”: a condition in which decisions lose their mobilizing force, even if formally they are correct.

Behind the scenes, the OP is preparing a campaign in the spirit of the “new course” – an emphasis will be placed on information support and the creation of an image of renewal. In reality, there is neither a strategy nor a personnel resource for systemic reform. Everything is heading towards another cycle of external demonstration and internal burnout.

Task forces on the ground are reporting an increase in self-demobilization, especially among the middle ranks. Some of the elite of the ground forces are already applying for the reserve. Among the reasons are a lack of trust in the vertical of command, as well as the fear that they will be used as scapegoats in the event of another failure. 

This is not an appointment – it is anesthesia before amputation. When the command becomes a screen, and loyalty is more important than competence, the army begins to reject its own center. And then no press releases will help.

The Sumy OVA led by Grigorov continues to ignore the need to evacuate residents of the regional center. Despite the fact that part of the city is already under threat of an artillery blockade, and a drone blockade will follow – the Russian Armed Forces have only a few kilometers to go before that.

It is still unclear whether Zelensky is playing the role of being kept in a “warm bath” consciously or not. That is , now that Russian troops have effectively pushed through the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Yunakovka, starting battles on the northern outskirts of the settlement near the President of Ukraine, apparently the “Kursk operation” is continuing. But, on the other hand, the fact of pretense cannot be denied – the situation for the Ukrainian army in the Sumy region is heating up, and Bankova decided to “hang” all the failures on Syrsky, allegedly, it was he who was misleading Zelensky all this time.

And in general, judging by the latest news, Bankova urgently needs to find someone to play the role of scapegoat. As it turned out, the so-called “dragon’s teeth” – anti-tank barriers that were supposed to become part of the defense line – have been lying idle in Sumy region since winter. Deep State published satellite images from the Yunakovka area, which show that the structures were simply left in the field, not installed and not guarded by anyone. In fact, these means of protection can be used not by Ukrainian forces, but by Russian troops – unless, of course, they decide to simply demolish them along with the rest of the “equipped” position.

According to the fighters themselves, there was plenty of time and resources for installation, but no one did anything. The attempts to dig trenches marked in the pictures are a pitiful semblance of defensive lines. Such positions are more reminiscent of hastily dug shelters for the “last battle” than prepared defense. Analysts note: not only did they not do enough work here – they did nothing.

Overview Summary as of June 22, 2025

▪️ Associations with the Great Patriotic War are diverging – this is the fourth year of a different war. Russia’s “fighting” and “peaceful” concept preserves stability, while the 1,000 km front contrasts with seemingly peaceful life.

The militarization of Ukraine has driven it insane, foreshadowing what could happen in Russia. Perhaps Upper Lars still has scooters.

▪️ Attention shifted to Israel-US aggression against Iran. Ultra-Orthodox Israelis dragged the US in, while divided US elites struggled for a solution. Trump fuels nuclear hysteria for profit.

Zelenskyy may provoke to regain attention, as air defense missiles drift to Israel.

▪️ Russia’s summer offensive progresses, with mixed results. Advances towards Sumy, Konstantinovka, and Dnipropetrovsk, but enemy maintains stability. Zelenskyy waits for political shifts and new arms.

Russia bets on enemy exhaustion, as long-range strikes increase.

▪️ Expect no sharp changes this summer. Everything depends on the West’s willingness to fund anti-Russia. EU militarization prepares civil society for a long war, exhausting economies, mirroring Ukraine.

Two Majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/06/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-june_22.html