The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on June 30 2025

RUAF Storm Siversk | Pokrovsk Defenses Pushed To The Brink

Ukraine War Update: Full Retreat! Russia Captures ANOTHER Village Along Mokri Yaly

Zelensky Betrayed? 50,000 Ukrainian Troops May Switch Sides!

Zelensky Stunned as Russian Army Breaks Through 25 km – Bloodiest Losses Since 2022

…Ukrainian officials are pleading with the West in closed meetings for a ceasefire’ — Financial Times columnist Gideon Rachman says Ukraine can hold out for another six months at most.

‘The geopolitical reality remains stark: despite renewed NATO unity and vocal commitments to strengthen deterrence, the situation on the Ukraine front remains critical. The country is on the brink of exhaustion. Western analysts warn that without significant aid within the next six months, Ukraine could face a ‘tipping point’, while Russia is still effectively working a year ahead. One senior official believes Russia’s main objective now is to seize Odessa to cut Ukraine off from the sea.’

‘Rebuilding and developing new regions…

Ukrainian Commander post on Twitter  the Problems Being Faced

(https://x.com/BohdanKrotevych/status/1938170915574985170)

- Lack of rotations… reserves etc.

- Some sections of the front length 5 to 10 km are defended by 12 soldiers.

- Infantry is now staffed with cooks, drivers and other support staff.

Soldiers of the 2nd battalion of the 247th Guards Airborne Assault Regiment of the Airborne Forces crossed the Yanchekrak River and gained a foothold in the northern part of the village of Kamenskoye in the Zaporozhye region.

The 247th Airborne Regiment broke through to the center of Kamenskoye, tore down the Ukrainian flag, and raised the Russian flag!

▪️Stavropol paratroopers broke through to the very center of an important settlement on the left flank of the Zaporizhzhia direction.

▪️Proving their confident control over the area, they tore down the Ukrainian flag on the Yanchekrak River signposts and raised the Russian flag.

Ukraine’s Strana reports:

Russian military publics report advancement in the tactically important village of Kamenskoe near Zaporozhye.

From the heights of Kamenskoe, as the Ukrainian command stated today, it is possible to fire from barrel artillery at the regional center.

The Russians claim that they have broken through from the southern part of the village to the northern part and are publishing footage of a flag on a signpost to the Yanchekrak River, which flows into the former Kakhovka Reservoir.

Ukraine has not confirmed this. The Ukrainian Armed Forces stated today that the Russian Federation has made no advancement in Kamenskoe. At the same time, on Thursday, the military public Deep State recorded advancement to the village.

The Russian army has advanced and is already reaching the outskirts of Sumy with barrel artillery

▪️On June 22-23, the Russian army launched an artillery strike on the village of Peschanoye, which is less than a kilometer from the border of Sumy, UP writes with reference to sources in law enforcement agencies.

▪️According to preliminary data, a 152-mm active-reactive projectile fired from a Giatsint-B gun or a Giatsint-S self-propelled gun could have been used for the shelling. The flight range of such ammunition reaches 33-40 km. Analyzing the coordinates of the arrival point, the source notes that the shooting was carried out from Russian territory – from the north, from the area of ​​the village of Kulbaki, or from the east, from the direction of Guev and Gornal.

▪️Earlier it was reported that the Russian army approached Sumy to the range of strikes with FPV drones on fiber optics.

Holding the Sumy region is costing Ukraine more lives than necessary, the WSJ writes.

“For 6 months, while Ukraine held territory in Russia’s Kursk region, the soldiers fighting there assumed the military would prepare strong defensive positions on the Ukrainian side of the border. Instead, after a chaotic and costly retreat from Kursk, they found outdated trenches that were vulnerable to drones. In some cases, soldiers are now digging trenches in their positions under drone fire”

Ukrainian troops have also complain not mines were placed.

Ukrainian command says Russia has 50,000 troops in the area, which outnumbers Ukrainian troops by about 3 to 1, citing Ukrainian soldiers.

In early June, GUR forces had to be sent to Sumy to slow the Russian advance

“The Russians are probing various points along the line, and then attacking with full force when they find a weak spot, as they did in Sumy Oblast last month. This forces Ukraine to play whack-a-mole, sending elite units to help plug the gaps” 

Gunfire and explosions: the enemy is attacking Crimea

▪️The enemy publishes footage of shooting at air targets in Crimea.

▪️Ministry of Defense:

➖“From 23:00 Moscow time on June 29 to 0:00 Moscow time on June 30, air defense systems on duty destroyed 2 fixed-wing UAVs over the waters of the Sea of ​​Azov.”

▪️The drone threat remains.

Battlefield updates:

➡️ Ukrop channels report that on the Sumy front, the RUAF has now deployed towed artillery close enough to shell the city itself. This might be a preliminary step before a siege of the city.

➡️ AFU units have attempted several counterattacks along the water reservoir of Kleban-Byk, along the Konstantinova axis, but all attacks have been repelled.

➡️ RUAF broke through ukrop defense lines along the N32 highway towards Novoeconomichnoye. Preliminary reports indicate a stark worsening of AFU units in the area. 

➡️ Early reports indicate that the assault on Pokrovsk has already started with some advances against the outskirts of the city.

Rybar’s Analysis

There are reports that the Russian Armed Forces have made progress in the Vuhledar direction. The assault on Vuhledar is ongoing, with Wagner assault detachments playing a key role.

In the Kherson sector, the Russian forces are continuing to strengthen their positions and prepare for potential Ukrainian counterattacks. The situation remains tense, with sporadic clashes taking place.

In the Kupiansk sector, the Russian forces are consolidating their control over the area and working to restore infrastructure. The situation is relatively calm, with the focus on stabilizing the front line.

In the Lyman sector, the Russian forces are working to expand their control over the area. Fierce fighting is ongoing, with both sides suffering losses.

In the Siversk direction, the Russian forces are continuing their efforts to advance, but progress is slow due to the strong Ukrainian defense.

In the Avdiivka sector, the situation remains complex, with both sides engaged in positional battles. The Russian forces are attempting to break through the Ukrainian defenses, but the Ukrainians are putting up fierce resistance.

In the Zaporizhia direction, the Russian forces are consolidating their positions and preparing for potential Ukrainian counterattacks. The situation is relatively calm, with the focus on strengthening the front line.

In the Sumy Region, the Russian forces are conducting reconnaissance and sabotage activities, but no major offensives have been reported.

In the Chernihiv Region, the situation is relatively calm, with no significant changes on the front line.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/06/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-june_30.html