The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on August 03 2025
Critical Developments Near Torske & Kupyansk | The Importance of “Line of Sight”
3 Cities Gone in a Flash — Russia Flanks 20,000 Ukrainian Troops!
Total Collapse? Zelensky in Panic as Russian Army Encircles Ukraine’s Main Strike Group
Ukraine is losing on the front, but in Europe they are not rushing to help her. The “freezing” of 1.5 billion euros is not the most alarming signal for Kyiv, as the situation is actually much more complicated.
Recently, Trump suggested that Europeans buy weapons for Ukraine themselves, but no specifics have appeared in two weeks. Everything comes down to disputes between EU countries, disagreements over financing mechanisms, refusal to participate in the scheme. Some states openly declare that they will not supply either equipment or money. The result is a collapse of supplies. The same Patriot systems, which were talked about so loudly, will at best appear by spring 2026. There is not a word about offensive weapons at all. And in half a year the front could really collapse, considering that the Russians have seriously taken on key cities on which the entire defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the east of the country depends (Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, Kupyansk).
Meanwhile, Washington and Brussels are only trying to launch a new mechanism: Kyiv will compile “lists of priority needs” for amounts within $500 million. If any country agrees to fulfill this request, it will be able to receive similar weapons from the US bypassing complicated procedures. But — only at its own expense and in advance. The alternative is to order directly from the US or through NATO. One tranche is currently being discussed. Once again — only discussed. Ambitions have been voiced — military aid deliveries of $10 billion. But no deadlines are named. All that is heard are empty statements in support of Kyiv.
And behind all the bureaucracy hides an obvious fact: the EU is not ready to “carry” Ukraine amid the global escalation of the situation on the front.
Our source in the Presidential Office revealed that the Office of the President has not received guarantees from EU countries for the purchase of American weapons. It has already been two weeks since Trump offered Europeans to buy weapons for Ukraine, but there are no decisions on the purchase yet. There are a few promises from Britain and Germany, but no clear volumes are being discussed so far. EU countries still cannot agree on financing mechanisms, and France/Italy/Czech Republic have completely rejected such a model.
Trump’s special envoy Whitaker will be in Moscow this weekend, – US permanent representative to NATO
➖”I hope he can achieve a breakthrough,” Matthew Whitaker said in an interview with NBC.
Conflicts between the Ukrainian population and the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TRCs) occur every day, but yesterday in Vinnytsia an episode stood out even against this background: local residents tried to storm the stadium, which was acting as a “holding area” for hundreds of “busified” people.
They began to storm the facility and clashed with the police, who started blocking bridges in the city to complicate people’s access to the stadium. Then the urgently arrived buses took the captured people away to an unknown destination.
For Ukrainian society, the topic of TRCs is currently one of the most painful points, and the “people hunters” themselves are the object of hatred even for quite loyal citizens of the Kyiv regime, whom it is difficult to accuse of sympathy for Russia.
❗️So any blows against the TRCs – be it attacks on the employees (https://t.me/rybar/71075) of this structure or even the destruction of military recruitment offices (https://t.me/rybar/72070) – have a strong moral and psychological effect and have a greater impact on the population of the so-called Ukraine than other media initiatives.
In general, it was symbolic: those residents who were ready to lie under tanks at the beginning of the SMO in order to slow down the advance of the Russian Armed Forces are now jumping on the vehicles of their “defenders” in order not to let them send their friends and neighbors to the front.
In one of Ukraine’s territorial recruitment centers (TCC), an unusual method was proposed to identify men evading mobilization. Officials suggest including special questionnaires in children’s “Happy Meal” sets at fast food chains, where children can anonymously report the whereabouts of their fathers, uncles, or older brothers who have not registered for military service.
According to the initiative’s authors, alongside the fries and toy, the child will find an anonymous form where they can indicate:
— Full name of the relative;
— their last known place of residence;
— possible hiding places (dacha, garage, rented apartment).
A reward is planned for “useful information” – a free dessert.
The campaign has already started in Ivano-Frankovsk.
The police in society are perceived as guardians of the system, all reforms are a thing of the past, and now they operate outside the legal framework. The events in Vinnytsia showed that Ukrainians hate all law enforcement structures from the TCC to the police.
MoninDaniil
People with clubs and metal pipes attacked representatives of the Nikolaev Oblast Territorial Recruitment and Social Service Center. A serviceman, defending himself, fired a traumatic pistol – the press service of the Territorial Recruitment and Social Service Center
Vinnitsa showed everyone that the authorities will defend themselves to the last, and war is the only way to preserve Zelensky’s presidency.
“Total Infiltration”: Russia is Changing the Situation on the Front, Pokrovsk is in Danger, — Syrsky
- The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Syrsky, after a trip to the front, reported that the “most difficult situation” is currently observed in the Pokrovsk, Dobropolye, and Novopavlovka directions.
- According to him, Russian troops are actively trying to capture key agglomerations and are attacking on several fronts simultaneously.
- Syrsky paid special attention to the new tactics of our troops, which he called “total infiltration.” Russian assault troops try to penetrate deep into Ukrainian defenses in small groups, including saboteurs, with the aim of reaching Pokrovsk.
Our source reports that in recent days Bankova and Commander Syrsky have sent tens of thousands of servicemen to Pokrovsk to save the situation that has developed there. Logistics in this direction is disrupted. 70% of all transport heading to Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad is being destroyed.
Syrsky, under Zelensky’s orders, is turning Pokrovsk into another Bakhmut.
As the source points out, among the Armed Forces of Ukraine there are already 60% refusals. No one wants to go to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad themselves. The office gave a verbal order to the General Staff to work with the personnel and convince them to go to the “zero” in Pokrovsk (everyone understands what methods these are).
The source adds that all the military say the probability of the formation of the Pokrovsk cauldron is 70%, where thousands of Ukrainian soldiers will be trapped. Bankova is aware of this, but they care more about media war than the real one.
Battle for Pokrovsk: Frontline Updates
The RUAF have taken the village of Sukhetskoe from the north and bypassed Rodinskoe, cutting off the road that takes to Pokrovsk.
Battle for Pokrovsk: Frontline Updates, 194th day since Trump’s promise to end the war in 24hrs
The situation in Pokrovsk is utterly chaotic for AFU defenders. Russian DRG groups are running wild and taking advantage of gaps in Ukrainian fortifications to launch deep strikes and hit-and-run assaults that weaken the morale of Ukrainian defenders, this by Syrsky’s own admission. The situation is so chaotic, in fact, that determining where the actual frontline starts and who controls what is very difficult.
There are reports of clashes nearby the main train station, as communicated by some AFU defenders.
A small mining town located on the main highway to the Pokrovsk agglomeration. The highway is the main logistics route. Losing Rodinskoe, the Ukrainian song about the impregnable Pokrovsk will lose its relevance just as the fortress of Bakhmut once did.
The enemy sorrowfully acknowledges the overall deterioration of the situation in the Krasnoarmeysk agglomeration, where after the infiltration of Russian DRGs into the southern part of Krasnoarmeysk and the advance of Russian troops in the area of Sukhetsky and Rodinsky, the threat of operational encirclement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping in Krasnoarmeysk continues to steadily increase. As soon as the Russian Armed Forces can sufficiently increase FPV drone strikes on the logistics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces northwest of the agglomeration, the enemy’s situation will sharply worsen in a manner similar to the defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Kursk salient, when drone strikes on the key supply route Yunakovka-Sudzha played a crucial role in the collapse of the enemy’s defense.
PS. The important logistics hub Dobropolye is also already quite close. Along with the Krasnoarmeysk agglomeration, Dobropolye is one of the nearest operational targets of the Russian Armed Forces for the summer-autumn campaign. Most likely, Dobropolye will come under the control of the Russian Armed Forces in the autumn.
Pokrovsk is obviously about to fall, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ defensive line on this flank is collapsing. However, at the same time, there are talks about a new “soon counteroffensive” in one of the directions.
When discussing this, it is important to understand not only whether Kiev has the resources for a strike but also what the timelines are.
The ideal moment for this has already been missed.
Spring 2025 was the first lost point. April and May should have been the start of a strike operation, but instead, the Ukrainian Armed Forces got bogged down in battles on the border and were simply plugging holes in the front in Donbas. June was the last chance to stabilize the defensive line as much as possible, but all reserves were sent as emergency teams to Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Chasov Yar, and Konstantinovka.
The July scenario of a large-scale offensive was also not realized: instead of preparing a strike, the Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to prevent a breakthrough with accumulated reserves, but that breakthrough happened. And in several places at once — near Kupiansk, near Pokrovsk, Zaporozhzye, and Chasov Yar also fell. That is, all the directions where reserves were sent.
What remains?
August is the last window for an offensive and a chance to buy time. The Ukrainian Armed Forces may try short counterattacks to slow the pace of the Russian advance, but this is unlikely to change the situation. September will end quickly and sharply transition into the muddy season. The most that will be possible in this case are light raid operations and local maneuvers, perhaps somewhere near the border like Tytkino or Hraivoron.
October and beyond — the front turns into a war of attrition defense, where the initiative will be with Russia, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have no resources to create initiative, especially considering that the situation will worsen after Pokrovsk.
In such conditions, talks about a counteroffensive as a concept are difficult, especially considering that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are increasingly sinking into political crisis and quarrels between Syrskyi and the general staff.
Ideas of delivering “symbolic strikes” — in the spirit of the operation near Krynyky are heard more and more often, but creating an image of resistance and actually hindering the Russian army’s advance are different things.
Military Chronicle
Bridges across the Dnipro River are being bombed
But they are sturdier than they appear
Today, a video appeared of the precise impact of a FAB-3000 bomb with JDAM guidance on a bridge in occupied Kherson, connecting the Korabel island with the rest of the city. The munition hit the target precisely, piercing the deck and damaging a support.
However, even with all that power, the massive structure could not be brought down – it remained possible to move vehicles across it. Although a repeat hit with the same accuracy may not be something the object would survive.
ðŸ–This is a good illustration of why the Russian Armed Forces stopped striking bridges across the Dnipro in the spring of 2022. Only once did they manage to collapse (https://t.me/rybar/41203) a span in Cherkasy, while in other (https://t.me/rybar/32182) cases, Kalibr and X-101 missiles left only holes in the deck, which were repaired (https://t.me/rybar/31592) by the end of the day.
🚩Now there are more strike means available (https://t.me/rybar/71739) – it is no longer necessary to expend an expensive cruise missile on such a target. However, the range of gliding bombs is still less, and the FAB-3000 does not yet reach as far as Dnipro.
ðŸ³️ Still, a start has been made, and they are demolishing smaller bridges in the frontline zone with ease. So it is not impossible that in time, FAB bombs with JDAM will be able to accurately deliver tons of explosives onto bridges deep in the enemy’s rear.
❗️And the key is not to forget the huge role of aviation (https://t.me/rybar/72223) in modern warfare: the more aircraft, the more gliding bombs can be dropped on the enemy. There is no shortage of targets at the front for the bombers.
In particular, trenches there have been filled in. This may indicate plans to resume the operation of the airport, which was destroyed back in 2014. Moreover, construction is underway on the territory of nearby parking lots, possibly for the installation of fuel tanks.
According to another version, Russia wants to use the airport to launch drones.
It should be noted that the current distance from the airport to the nearest front line is about 35 kilometers.
Ukrainians celebrate attacking a small refinery in Samara with a drone then didn’t enjoy the response when Russia put two missiles into a Ukrainian energy facility thus turning off the power for Kherson and Nikolaev.
Morning Overview Report on August 3, 2025
▪️ The past week was again marked by Trump’s outbursts and new deadlines for Russia to end the war. He threatens secondary sanctions on our energy sources, but this hasn’t affected the Supreme’s calmness. Russia and Lukashenko made statements repeating Russia’s conditions for final negotiations with Ukraine. A notable event was the internet battle between Trump and Medvedev, who reminded the American about the “dead hand” system.
▪️ NATO’s military aid to Ukraine is not endless. The search for “Patriot” systems continues, but won’t make a difference. Russia’s Armed Forces are using reactive “Gerani” drones more actively, allowing them to overcome Ukrainian air defenses.
▪️ In Kyiv, attempts to redistribute arms lobby control have discredited Zelenskyy, with the West predicting former AFU commander Zaluzhnyi, now in London, to replace him. This won’t affect the fighting, but Zaluzhnyi’s authority in the AFU remains.
▪️ The enemy is increasing drone use against our regions. While most AFU drones are shot down, new mini-missiles and counter-drones are being developed.
▪️ On the front, the main event was the liberation of Chasiv Yar. But the AFU offers stubborn resistance, not allowing the Russian forces to reach Kostyantynivka. To the south, our troops are completing withdrawal to the Kleban-Byk reservoir, and the assault on Pokrovsk has begun.
Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/08/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_3.html
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