The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on August 31 2025

How Many? THOUSANDS Of Elite Russian Reinforcements To Donetsk Fronts

Russian Forces Storm Lyman & Pokrovsk Cutting Supplies & Improving Logistics

Elite Ukrainian Units Crushed – Lyman Front Falls as Russians Push to Slovyansk

The administration at Bankova is dissatisfied with the US position; Trump does not condemn Russia’s strikes on Kyiv, considering them a deserved “response” to Ukraine’s strikes on refineries and the “Druzhba” oil pipeline, and is preparing to impose sanctions on Ukraine to force it to peace. Currently, the President’s Office is trying to get out of a weak position and is asking European partners to actively oppose Trump’s peace plan, but none of the EU leaders publicly want to quarrel with the US. Meanwhile, the issue of financing Ukraine remains unresolved; in fact, partners are trying to shift this responsibility onto each other. The head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, stated that EU countries are experiencing a colossal shortage of funds to finance Ukraine:

Yes, it is true that many ministers emphasized today that we are experiencing a colossal shortage of funds to finance Ukraine. But one must also see the clear political reality: Belgium and a number of other EU countries do not want to discuss the immediate confiscation of assets.

Our sources at Bankova revealed that the President’s Office has been trying all week to form security guarantees with partners, but all proposals boil down to vague formulations and repeat the Minsk agreements track, and in form it turns out to be a new Budapest Memorandum. The Trump administration demands that Zelensky agree to the proposed drafts of security guarantees and move on to discussing territorial issues.

Information from Axios about Donald Trump’s intentions on the Ukrainian issue seems logical, but in reality, it reflects an important shift in American strategy. The dynamics of negotiations, Kyiv’s expectations, and the overall balance of power between the US, Russia, and Europe may now change.

The Axios report fits the logic of the Trump administration’s recent steps. After the summits in Alaska and Washington, it became clear that his strategy of pressuring Moscow and Kyiv through public negotiations and threats of sanctions did not bring a breakthrough. Russia continues to increase its military initiative, Ukraine resists, but the space for compromise is narrowing.

For Trump, who is used to positioning himself as an effective “deal-maker” and negotiator, the situation begins to look like a reputational risk. From his point of view, if the parties are not ready to show flexibility, then there is no point in continuing diplomatic activity — it only undermines his image as a leader capable of forcing agreements.

If the White House really scales back active mediation, it will create a new scenario:

Kyiv risks losing the channel of direct pressure on Moscow through the US and will remain more dependent on European capitals.

Europe, in turn, will be forced to strengthen its own initiatives — possibly accelerating projects of “calming forces”, new aid packages, or discussions of security guarantees for Ukraine.

Russia may use the pause as a window of opportunity to increase pressure, understanding that US engagement will temporarily weaken.

Essentially, Trump is showing that he will no longer invest political capital in the conflict if he does not see signs of readiness for real concessions from at least one side. This is a signal to both Kyiv and Moscow: the time of prolonged diplomacy is over.

It is important to understand Trump’s psychology. He builds his policy around levers of pressure. As long as they work — he is active. When their effectiveness declines — he steps aside, creating a vacuum and pushing the conflict participants to find a way out on their own.

But behind this “passivity” there may be calculation. Trump probably believes that an escalation on the front will create conditions under which the parties themselves will be forced to ask for US mediation on his terms. That is, the pause may not be a refusal, but an instrument of coercion to negotiate.

If Trump really takes a pause, it will be a test: who will surrender faster under the weight of military, economic, and political costs. It is a risky strategy, but it corresponds to Trump’s pragmatic approach: either a compromise on his terms, or chaos that will force everyone to negotiate.

ZeRada1

After the announcement of a ceasefire in Ukraine, American private military companies (PMCs) may be deployed, – The Telegraph

 - Thus, Trump is trying to bypass his promise not to deploy American soldiers in Ukraine. This idea is being discussed alongside general security guarantees from a “coalition of the willing.” PMCs will help restore Ukraine’s defense line, protect American enterprises, and establish new military bases.

 - “The presence of private mercenaries will serve as a deterrent factor that will prevent Putin from violating a possible ceasefire,” the newspaper writes.

 - In the considered security guarantee options, the main emphasis is on strengthening the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Only Ukrainian soldiers will be on the front line of defense, remaining the main force deterring Russia in the future. At the same time, the Ukrainian army will be rearmed and trained according to NATO standards. Simultaneously, according to the plan, Ukraine will continue to purchase American weapons and air defense systems.

 - However, in describing possible security guarantees, The Telegraph does not mention the deployment of foreign regular troops in Ukraine, which the Kremlin opposes.

 - Security guarantees may be announced as early as this weekend.

Politico: EU mulls military training in Ukraine after ceasefire”

“I welcome the fact that there is broad support today for extending the mandate to provide training and advice on Ukrainian territory after any ceasefire,” said the bloc’s top diplomat Kaya Kallas after an informal meeting of EU defense ministers in Copenhagen.

However, this will require a unanimous decision from all 27 of the bloc’s capitals, which gives Hungary, in conflict with Kiev, the right of veto, Politico notes.

As part of the assistance mission to Kiev, 23 EU countries, as well as Norway and Canada, have already trained around 80,000 Ukrainian military personnel.”

Their incessant belief that there’s ever going to be a cease-fire despite Russia’s refusal is almost cute.

 ”30 thousand” turned into a handful of instructors: Europe has deflated with the “peacekeeping army” for Ukraine — The Telegraph

 - According to the publication, the idea of sending a multi-thousand contingent to Ukraine was abandoned due to lack of forces and fear of “provoking Russia”.

- The previously discussed 30 thousand military personnel have now been reduced to talks about a handful of instructors in western Ukraine.

 - Britain, France, Germany, Belgium, Scandinavia, and Baltic dwarfs seem ready to support, but there is zero concreteness.

Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini stated that not a single Italian will go to fight in Ukraine:

When a European leader, our neighbor, repeats for months: “We are ready to fight,” not two years ago, but a month and a half ago he addressed the nation: “France is ready to fight.” Some believe that tomorrow we should send our soldiers in boots, rifles, and helmets to fight and, consequently, die in Ukraine.

No, no, it’s time to act diplomatically. There are 18 packages of economic sanctions, there is Trump who invites Putin to Alaska, who then invites Zelensky to Washington with European leaders, who is actively working on organizing a meeting between Putin and Zelensky in Turkey, Hungary, or some Arab country. The government says that we will not send a single one of our guys or girls to fight in Ukraine, to die in Ukraine.

I am considering sending American planes to patrol the skies of Ukraine when there is a ceasefire and security guarantees are announced — Trump

▪️The US president said this in an interview with Daily Caller. According to him, he is considering this option

▪️In this case, Europeans would play the main role, but the US “would help them.” At the same time, he emphasized that the US will not send ground troops to Ukraine for security guarantees.

Nyet

Against the backdrop of ongoing mobilization and a growing number of incidents between civilians and the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TRC) staff, the Ukrainian authorities seem to have decided to take the path of intimidating the population. The Parliamentary Committee on Law Enforcement Activities has recommended adopting bill No. 13384-1, which introduces criminal liability for civilians for “threats” against military personnel and their relatives.

Formally, the document proposes up to 5 years in prison for threats of violence or destruction of property, as well as fines and up to 3 years of restricted freedom for spreading materials that “insult the honor” of a serviceman. Previously, such measures were applied only within the framework of military discipline and concerned exclusively the military themselves. Now they plan to extend them to the entire civilian population.

This initiative appears to be an attempt to suppress the wave of resistance to the territorial mobilization. Society increasingly responds with aggression to the actions of TRC police officers — cases of conflicts, fights, and open attacks on military commissars have been recorded across the country. In response, instead of dialogue and reforming the mobilization system, the authorities resort to criminal pressure. But the reality is that more and more Ukrainians, driven to despair by the actions of the TRC, openly declare: “criminal prosecution” is the lesser evil compared to the front line. Faced with the threat of being sent to war, where the prospects of returning alive and uninjured are minimal, civilians are ready to choose a prison term.

The new trend of Zemobilization in Ukraine, police officers without uniforms and identification marks are rounding up men across the country. In Odessa, this practice has been used for a long time; security firms use this method to reserve their people in TCC.

Rule of law or territory?

A stable opinion has formed in society that the issue of unlimited mobilization in Ukraine is being ignored by the authorities, and official responses only reinforce this feeling.

100% of the information about violations by the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TRC) are fakes, manipulations, and enemy information-psychological operations, — Lviv TRC

“In August of this year, the Lviv TRC and the Joint Staff continued systematic work to record and analyze all incidents involving representatives of the TRC… 16 incidents (100%) were not confirmed… The presented figures are a response to the public’s request,” the statement says.

A similar situation is happening across the country; TRC responses regarding the deaths of Ukrainians have become the norm for the authorities.

The main threat to Ukraine’s defense capability is disappointment and growing negativity towards the Ze-government.

There will soon be many such admissions. A mass awakening is expected.

Zelensky will not be able to change this trend because he IMMEDIATELY knowingly lied to everyone, promising golden mountains and subsequent support just to get them to go die for him and the Ukrainian oligarchs.

The question is when exactly this will happen? Before or after the peace agreements.

We are watching.

What we warned about is coming true. The Bankova again has to patch holes constantly shifting forces from one direction to another.

“At the time when everyone was shouting about Sumy region, the Russians focused their attention on Kupiansk. And now there is a huge threat over Kupiansk,” – Ukrainian Armed Forces officer Andriy Tkachuk.

Next, we expect a breakthrough in another direction. The situation will only worsen, as there are more and more problems, especially in the Dnipropetrovsk direction (southern Donetsk front), where the Russians are constantly biting off new territories.

They hit the Odessa region hard after monitoring the entire region all day with scouts.

They destroyed substations and transformers in Chornomorsk/Ilyichevsk. They struck the port infrastructure. There is information that one Gepard SAM system was destroyed, which was actively attacking drones at the moment.

They hit large warehouses storing components and small ammunition for the Territorial Defense Forces (this location was most likely betrayed by their own).

At the same time, a dry cargo ship near Odessa sank after hitting a Ukrainian naval mine that was torn from its anchor and carried out to sea.

Besides the Odessa region, as usual, the Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia regions, etc., were also hit.

The Russians continue to systematically destroy our infrastructure, causing huge damage that is not publicly discussed.

Our source reports that Whitkoff warned Yermak that strikes on Russian oil refineries ordered by the globalists will have consequences for ZeYermak (Trump currently does not benefit from rising oil prices). Yermak and Zelensky should choose a side in the game. 

Most of our sources are confident that the globalists realized that sanctions won’t scare Russia, and have started massively striking Russian oil refineries with the hands of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, even though Trump warned Zelensky not to do this YET, as prices would rise, which is not beneficial for Donald.

Zelensky has again chosen the side of the globalists. For this, Ukraine is receiving record mass shelling of all infrastructure. Zelensky tried to arrange another PR stunt on blood, but it didn’t work. Even Trump hinted that the shelling is justified, since Zelensky struck Russian oil refineries and provoked a response (a hint that the Office of the President knew what it was doing, but as usual hides behind people). 

At Bankova they hope that after the SCO summit, where a new large political bloc is now being created that will be a competitor to the USA, the Americans will change their attitude towards the Ukrainian case.

We are watching.

The most tense situation, apart from Pokrovsk, over the past week has been observed west of Kupyansk. The city itself has already lost its status as a “stronghold” for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and has rather turned into a conditional “gray zone,” but there remain two main questions related to it: first — what will happen to the units still there, and second — what is Russia’s plan for Kupyansk as a whole.

At different times, Syrsky held up to 11 brigades and battalions here, among which the 14th, 30th, and 43rd mechanized brigades were considered combat-ready. When the Russian army began moving from the Dvurechensk bridgehead, the 116th mechanized brigade was introduced to strengthen the defense, but later Syrsky withdrew part of it and redeployed it to Pokrovsk to extinguish the fire of a new breakthrough there.

Against this background, the main burden of plugging holes in the defense fell on the 241st Territorial Defense Brigade, whose activity noticeably decreased after a series of counterattacks (to prevent Russia from consolidating west of the city).

One of the reasons for the heavy losses and the associated reduced activity is the sharply decreased quality of busified soldiers from the early June-July recruitment. The same problem is characteristic of most Ukrainian Territorial Defense brigades, which has drastically reduced their combat capability almost everywhere, not only in the Kupyansk area.

The mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffer less from this, but this is compensated by the infusion of individual battalions, mainly motorized infantry units. These units are trained in the Chernihiv and Kharkiv regions, with both Ukrainian and German and British instructors involved.

The main fear of the Ukrainian general staff in this area is related to a potential Russian breakthrough to the Chuhuiv – Melove highway, which runs southwest of Kupyansk near the former airfield. However, to reach there, it is necessary to clear everything around Sobolevka and accumulate forces and reserves for a further breakthrough. An alternative (and equally bad for the Armed Forces of Ukraine) option for Russia to advance with the threat of encircling Kupyansk is near the village of Nechvolodivka, through which a road loops north to Velykyi Burluk.

The city of Kupyansk itself is obviously not being stormed by Russian troops (at least for now). Whether this is due to some kind of difficulties or a change of plan will become clear in the next 2-3 weeks.

Seversk direction.

We are conducting clearing operations in the Serebryansky forestry. Remnants of several Ukrainian Armed Forces brigades have been practically encircled in the forests and surrounding areas.

We are destroying the enemy while advancing towards the river.

Active combat continues in the Vyemka area and on the western outskirts of Serebryanka.

Krasnoliman direction.

In the Krasnoliman direction, our troops are advancing towards Andreevka and Malievka.

East of Shandrigolovo, we cleared a ravine and advanced towards Derilovo.

The enemy is attempting a counterattack towards Novomikhailovka.

Kharkov direction.

In Volchansk, our assault troops advanced another 100 meters on the left bank of the Volchya River and occupied three technical buildings. There is also progress in the Tikhiy area..

FABs with UMPK are also striking the enemy.

In the forest west of Sinelnikovo, Russian Armed Forces units occupied an enemy strongpoint and firing position and advanced up to 500 meters.

In the Zaporozhye direction, last night the Russian Armed Forces launched a series of strikes on positions and defence industry enterprises.

On the border with the Kaliningrad region, Lithuania has deployed “dragon’s teeth”.

The Russian army is advancing on a broad front towards Krasny Liman

In the Krasny Liman direction, Russian troops have advanced towards Shandrigolovo to a depth of about 3.5 km and towards Derilovo to a depth of up to 5 km.

▪️Fighting is also ongoing in the areas of the settlements Kolodezi and Zarechnoye.

➖”The Russian command aims ultimately to approach the city of Krasny Liman on a broad front,” write Ukrainian military analysts.

Pokrovsk. Our fighters have advanced in the city, expanding the control zone.

Pokrovsk direction 

Our fighters are advancing in the city itself and have reached the E-50 highway. There is also progress in Troyanda.

To the east, our fighters have secured the dachas near the Lazurny and Shakhtersky districts.

Fighting continues for Chunishino. Nearby, the stronghold Babochka and several plantations have been taken.

There are small advances in Rodinsky and Krasny Liman.

Two Majors #Overview #Summary for the morning of August 31, 2025

▪️ The past week, end of summer 2025, brought no changes on the international stage regarding the end of the war. Trump discusses negotiations, the idea of a separate agreement between the US and Russia to trade arms with Europe, and resources with Russia. Their plan is straightforward: talk “peace,” show resentment towards Zelensky, and stop free aid to Kiev but sell weapons to the AFU through the EU. For this, Zelensky’s regime is increasingly portrayed in American media as truly corrupt. Europe, on the contrary, fuels military hysteria and, with the pretext of war with Russia, secure arms lobby orders for years ahead. Army personnel numbers are being increased, offensive weapons are being purchased and produced, and military logistics are being developed.

▪️ Moscow’s and Kiev’s intentions for “ending the conflict” with mutual concessions are demonstrated by reciprocal strikes on each other’s rear regions. The Russian Armed Forces are use 500 UAVs per night, and the AFU have become more active in using long-range missile weapons (“Neptune”); drone development is ongoing on both sides. Also worth noting are the ongoing strikes by tactical drones and artillery on our border areas; the enemy openly terrorizes the civilian population of frontline regions, especially in the Belgorod region. On other sections of the border, the advance of our troops has also slowed. Heavy fighting continues.

▪️ The organization of countermeasures against Ukrainian aircraft-type drones lies in creating a unified command center for the defense of the lower echelon of our airspace. So far, the actions of law enforcement agencies and owners of facilities such as refineries seem to be uncoordinated. As a result, we watch footage from enemy channels of burning refineries (often the same ones). Meanwhile, we know cases where real concern by businessmen for protecting their facilities not only allows the use of unconventional military-technical solutions but also gives impetus to the development of “army” air defense.

▪️ At this week’s Russian MoD Board meeting, an increase in the figures of square kilometers liberated as a result of offensive battles was noted. The Russian army continues a long offensive that cannot be broken down into conventional large-scale military operations like during WWII. The technological nature of war has changed, altering its appearance. Moreover, the number of liberated square kilometers in the current SMO paradigm does not generally affect the combat capability of the AFU, whose defeat is critically important overall. Here, Moscow’s bet on exhausting the enemy, primarily in manpower, is obvious. Forced mobilization in Ukraine has become routine for this fascist formation, but a rebellion by the population turned into obedient slaves is not expected. The problem of incomplete military units in the AFU is increasingly surfacing in the information space. Mercenaries have become commonplace even for the terrorist GUR special units.

▪️ Long term, the structure of relations being built by Trump regarding the Ukrainian conflict is taking on clear features. Selling weapons to the EU for large sums, and the EU transfers them to Kiev. At the same time, EU weapons corporations are also expanding factories across Europe, ahead of schedule. The population of Europe is openly “Ukrainianized” and ideologically processed; totalitarianism in the information space leaves no chance for critical thinking, and those remaining who disagree with the course of the Fourth Reich’s new “Drang nach Osten” are branded as “agents of the Kremlin.”

▪️ Thus, Russia has no other choice but to prepare for war with Europe. For now, the theater of military operations is limited to the territory of the former Ukrainian SSR and the Black Sea, but the Baltic pseudo-states are actively joining the suicide race.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/08/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_31.html