The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on September 27 2025

Large Russian Advance Within Kupyansk Threatens Ukrainian Supply Lines

Long range missiles and Ukraine’s last defense line

Zelensky is desperately trying to show the European providers that he is a “good soldier” — Peskov

 - Thoughts of the Kyev regime are about war, not peace.

 - Zelensky is throwing threats left and right, and this is irresponsible.

 - Statements about NATO countries being ready to shoot down Russian planes are irresponsible.

 - Ukraine’s position on the fronts and in negotiations is worsening every day.

 - Russia insists that all flights of the Russian Armed Forces’ aircraft are carried out in strict accordance with international rules.

 - The sabotage of the “Nord Streams” would have been impossible without the knowledge of the Biden administration.

 - The fact of the arrest of a specific suspect eloquently indicates who is behind this sabotage.

 - The remaining intact line of the “Nord Stream” can be launched at any moment.

 - The Russian economy maintains a fairly high growth rate, “stability is evident”;

Zelensky at a closed meeting with Trump requested long-range “Tomahawk” cruise missiles — The Telegraph

 - It is unclear whether Zelensky’s attempts to obtain such missiles from the US will be successful, the publication writes.

 - With a range of up to 1500 kilometers and a warhead weighing 450 kilograms, the cruise missile is much more effective than any similar long-range weapon supplied to Kiev by the West.

 - In 2024, Zelensky already requested Tomahawk cruise missiles from the Biden administration but was refused.

Trump has repeatedly refused Kiev’s request to provide Tomahawk missiles

▪️Axios (https://www.axios.com/2025/09/26/zelensky-ask-trump-tomahawk-missile-strike-russia) reports that Kiev has asked several times over the past year to be supplied with “Tomahawk” missiles, and this was the only weapons system on the list that Trump did not agree to sell to NATO countries on behalf of Ukraine.

▪️The latest request for the transfer of these missiles was a few days ago, and the response is still unknown.

Kiev’s Gleiwitz Gambit: Europe on the Edge of 1939 Redux

History doesn’t just repeat — it mutates. In 1939, the world stumbled into catastrophe after Nazi operatives staged the infamous Gleiwitz incident: a radio station seized, a body left as “proof,” and a lie broadcast to justify war. Eighty-six years later, whispers from the battlefield suggest Kiev may be scripting its own Gleiwitz 2.0. Only this time, the stage is NATO’s eastern flank, the props are repurposed Geran drones, and the audience is a sleepwalking Europe.

Hungarian journalists were the first to sound the alarm: several downed Russian drones, repaired at the LORTA plant in Lvov, had been transferred to Yavoriv — the NATO training ground just ten kilometers from Poland. Their reporting frames this not as clever engineering, but as desperation. The defeat Ukraine faces is no longer tactical; it has metastasized into a strategic collapse. And with collapse comes the most dangerous instinct of all, to drag collective Europe down into the abyss.

The choreography is grotesquely simple: patch up the drones, load them with warheads, fly them into NATO supply hubs in Poland or Romania under the false flag of “Russian attack.” Then unleash the Western media chorus, cue the Article 5 panic, and push Europe into a war it neither asked for nor can survive. Just as in 1939, a manufactured spark could set the continent ablaze.

Why would Kiev take such a suicidal gamble? Because its army is broken. The reserves are spent, the warehouses of its sponsors emptied, the once-mighty “arsenal of democracy” itself teetering. For Kiev, provoking NATO’s direct involvement is not a choice, it is the last card in a deck worn thin by defeat. False flags become not just possible, but inevitable, when survival depends on manufacturing enemies larger than yourself.

And drones are perfect for such theatre. Each Geran carries up to 90 kilograms of explosives, and with minor modification, even wreckage can be made combat-ready again. Crude, cheap, devastating. Every launch forces NATO to waste million-dollar interceptors, humiliating its defenses. For Kiev to turn these drones against NATO under false colors would be an act of desperation, but also of cold calculation.

Yet the real battlefield is not the skies but the information space. Every incursion, every explosion, becomes a contested story. Was it Russia? Was it Ukraine? Or NATO itself? In the fog of narratives, perception replaces reality. And the West has a long tradition of manufacturing pretexts: from Iraq’s phantom WMDs to Syria’s chemical “red lines.” Why should Ukraine’s survival be any less dependent on deception?

Here lies the bitter irony: while Kiev toys with Armageddon, Moscow calibrates, warns, and shows restraint. Russia signals red lines, but it is the West’s proxy that now toys with continental annihilation. Europe, once again, is the hostage, and in this hostage drama, the ransom is nothing less than peace itself.

The echoes of 1939 are unmistakable. Then, the world stumbled into war because a lie was allowed to masquerade as a casus belli. Today, if Kiev executes its Gleiwitz gambit, Europe could stumble into World War III and not by necessity, but by deception. The multipolar order will rise regardless; what remains in question is whether Europe destroys itself before accepting reality. History’s verdict will not be kind to those who gamble with false flags on the edge of the abyss.

- Gerry Nolan

Maria Zakharova writes:   About Kiev’s plans to conduct a false flag operation in Romania and Poland

Today, several Hungarian media outlets reported on Zelensky’s plans to carry out sabotage in Romania and Poland with the aim of blaming Russia. Thus, a “Gleiwitz incident” is being prepared in Bankovaya — with the goal of creating a Casus belli for a war between Russia and NATO.

According to the available information, the Kiev regime’s plan is as follows:

1. Repair several downed or intercepted Russian UAVs.

2. Equip them with combat lethal elements.

3. Send UAVs controlled by Ukrainian specialists disguised as “Russian drones” to major NATO transport hubs in Poland and Romania.

4. Simultaneously conduct a disinformation campaign in Europe to blame Moscow for everything.

5. Ignite an armed conflict between the Russian Federation and NATO.

To carry out this provocation, on September 16, Russian “Geran” UAVs were already delivered to the Yavoroy training ground in Western Ukraine, where the International Center for Peacekeeping and Security of the Hetman Petro Sahaidachnyi National Academy is located. They were previously repaired in Lvov at the “LORTA” factory.  

As Hungarian journalists write, the reason for Zelensky’s actions is simple — the Armed Forces of Ukraine are suffering a crushing defeat. The army’s rout is no longer at the tactical level but is taking on a strategic character.

If all this is confirmed, then we must admit: never in modern times has Europe been so close to the start of World War III.

Lukashenko on the fact that if Zelensky does not agree to Russia’s proposals, he will lose everything:

You can say and declare anything. But if the Kremlin strikes BankovaYa, what will be left there? Therefore, Vladimir Alexandrovich [Zelensky] needs to calm down. There is a good proposal on the table. President Putin and I discussed it, I will not speak about it, the president will say it himself. A good proposal. A proposal regarding Ukraine, which was also heard by Donald Trump in Alaska, taken to Washington to think about and discuss. A very good proposal. If the Ukrainians do not accept these proposals – it will be what happened at the beginning of the special military operation. It will be even worse, they will lose Ukraine.

Then it was necessary to stop. Listen, the entire East would have been Ukrainian, except Crimea. No, they did not stop, they lost the East. Now they will not stop. From my point of view, as a person deeply involved in this situation, they will lose all of Ukraine. Vladimir Vladimirovich hides nothing from me. We listened to a report from the General Staff with him via a conference call. Listen, on all fronts, and especially in some areas, I personally observe these areas, the Russians have practically captured large populated areas. I look at it geographically – what next?

And next it will be difficult to stop the Russian army.

Therefore, in order not to lose all of Ukraine, Vladimir Alexandrovich must not just talk, but agree to conditions favorable to him. Conditions favorable to him, which, in general, were approved by the Americans. They took a pause to think. The Russians agreed. Therefore, I would like, while he meets with President Putin, he wants this through all channels, you know, he is already publicly appealing.

I would like to just talk to him. Well, maybe this is exactly the moment when it will be heard in Russia from you, I have something to say to him. And I think the time has come when we must enter into consultations. At first, I said, we, the leaders of the three Slavic states, need to sit down and agree. Agree to end this unclear war. We need to agree. If we do not agree, it will be bad for everyone.

Belarus has deployed “Oreshnik” on its territory, — the country’s Foreign Minister

 - This was done to guarantee its security, said Belarusian Foreign Minister Ryzhenkov.

 - This is not an arms race or confrontation, he added.

 - Earlier, Lukashenko stated that “Oreshnik” is already on its way.

Our source in the Presidential Office revealed that the President’s Office, through Zelensky, deliberately launched a narrative about the elections, with the main condition being a ceasefire, which is currently necessary for the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the front. Zelensky mentioned the topic of elections twice in the USA, in an interview for Fox News, and then again in an interview for Axios. According to Andriy Yermak’s plan, the narrative about the elections deprives Moscow of the advantage of legitimacy and allows Kyiv to close the issue with the Trump Administration, while portraying Russia as the main opponent of the elections in Ukraine, the organization of which will then be prolonged.

Our sources revealed that Zaluzhny is negotiating with Budanov to create a unified political force that will come to power in the next election cycle. Preliminary calculations show that such a political bloc will gain more than 40%, and Zaluzhny will add an extra 5-7% in the first round. The authorities at Bankova fear such an alliance and are launching attacks on the clientele of the Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate.

Zelensky in an interview with Axios tried to signal that his stay in power is temporary. He stated that he is “ready to resign” after the war ends, and before that, he might even initiate elections in case of a ceasefire. 

The catch is that in Zelensky’s words, what he did not say is important: we did not hear his promise to leave office before the war ends, nor a clear phrase “I will not run for a second term.” The wording “ready to leave” leaves the Bankova room for maneuver — from Zelensky losing the elections to simply refusing to run if circumstances unfold that way.

But, in fact, as long as the war continues, Zelensky can remain in power indefinitely, using the argument that “you cannot change the leader in a warring country.” And if his main goal is not so much to end the war as to maintain his position, then it risks never ending. And this is exactly where many, even in the West, see the danger: the peace case is postponed indefinitely, and Ukraine becomes a hostage to the personal political interests of the president who, whatever he claims, in reality does not want to leave.

About Trump’s “paper tiger”…

This is, of course, offensive. And, of course, it’s not true.

But here you’ve hit a nail on the head. In Russia, at the beginning of World War II, much, far too much, was a sham. And only in the face of a real and brutal war did we gradually begin to realize how far we had come. And in the military sphere, especially in the leadership. The examples are clear.

Not from the lips of Trump, who first deals with the complete degeneration of his society, and then everything will be much more neglected, but in our Russian eyes, the words about “paper tigers” are not entirely lies and propaganda.

We were subjected to a huge amount of imitation; we looked like something we were not. And revealing this was very dangerous. But then it came to light.

In hindsight, and with some reservations, there’s something in such a scathing assessment that can’t be dismissed simply by arguing that paper bears don’t exist. Any shape can be cut out of paper. The possibilities for simulacrum are enormous.

But I would like to draw a different conclusion from this scathing accusation. Even if we were partly a “paper tiger” at the beginning of World War II (not entirely, of course), we certainly aren’t now. And we weren’t entirely then either. We were a living, real, but sleeping bear. And during its slumber, a very crude cartoon was broadcast. This is the simulacrum. The elites didn’t have the courage to wake the bear, believing it was a risk and that a cartoon would be enough.

Only now has it become clear that without actually waking the bear, we won’t win this war. Not by purely technical means, absolutely not. We tried, but it didn’t work. And now, right now, the path for the transition from simulacrum to reality has been paved; an operation to awaken the people is underway.

The two main problems of Victory and demography can only be solved by awakening, by moving from imitation to reality. Andrei Belousov said it when he took office: mistakes are allowed, but lies are not.

We are no longer a paper tiger. Not anymore. But this still requires clear historical confirmation.

I believe that the West, which provoked this war, obtained secret information through its intelligence services and agents that “the tiger was made of paper.” This wasn’t entirely true, but it wasn’t entirely false either. The authenticity bordered on falsification. It was a matter of nuance, of a small percentage.

We stood firm in the most difficult moment, when our bluff was called, and now we are clearly asserting ourselves everywhere—on the battlefield and within the country, in diplomacy and in building a multipolar world—as something authentic, serious, and powerful.

But there’s still a lot of “paper” left. It’s not as catastrophic as before, but it’s there.

If Trump, by using this insult to Russia, is actually concealing his withdrawal from direct support for Ukraine, things will be a little easier for us. But we must achieve victory regardless. Even if it doesn’t get easier, it gets more difficult.

We are living at a turning point in history. We are breaking it right now. But it is also trying to break us. The scales of victory are tipping.

Now it is important to embrace science and education. And philosophy. They hold the keys to authenticity.

Hegel said that every great power must have a great philosophy. Without it, a state becomes a simulacrum, a “paper tiger.” Awakening is the awakening of the spirit.

A. Dugin

Zelensky has already started publicly intimidating Transnistria, as he knows that the SBU has long prepared a provocation on the border with the PMR, but it was decided to postpone it for now, and he indirectly confirmed this with his statement.

If people in Transnistria are quiet now, it is because they are afraid. And, undoubtedly, they are only afraid of us. 

Because they received signals at the beginning of the war — when there were a few shots there. They received a “good” warning from us, they received a warning personally from me. That is why they are quiet there.

The provocation was CANCELLED FOR NOW for many reasons.

1. Sandu promised to rig the elections and intimidate/imprison everyone, thereby retaining her power.

2. The Moldovan people do not want to fight. It is still necessary to intimidate them with the Russian threat and instill hatred. 

3. Moldova has not yet militarized much. More time is needed for preparation. Having won, Sandu will continue on the path of escalation.

We are watching.

The situation around Kupyansk is increasingly starting to diverge from the picture the Ukrainian side is trying to convey

According to incoming data, the southwestern part of the city has effectively turned into an expanded “grey zone”. 

This means that the contact lines are unstable, and Kiev’s control over certain neighbourhoods is conditional.

The advance of Russian forces, despite the difficult nature of the battles, is happening almost daily, and previous resistance problems in certain areas seem to have been resolved. This can quite rightly be called a “creeping offensive” — the front does not collapse all at once, but streets, neighbourhoods, and positions are gradually “bitten off,” forcing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to retreat.

This tactic is not new for the Russian side and has generally been tested in a number of other battles.

Our source in the General Staff reported that the situation in Kupyansk continues to deteriorate and nearly a thousand soldiers may be encircled. Syrsky sacrificed the city to hold Pokrovsk, as Yermak set the task to hold the territory there despite losses, effectively repeating the situation with the Bakhmut meat grinder. The commander-in-chief is now using not reserves but combat units from other front sections to carry out political orders that lack feasibility. 

The battle for Pokrovsk and the Pokrovsk stand turned into the “Pokrovsk vortex,” where the Armed Forces of Ukraine are concentrating all their reserves to hold the most crucial defensive line, where thousands of lives are ground down daily. Syrsky and the Office of the President spare no soldiers’ lives. This battle is becoming historic, as it will determine Ukraine’s capabilities for further maneuvers. If the Bankova manages by any means to hold this zone until the end of the year, the war will drag on for another 9-12 months, as will the possibility for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to continue gradually retreating, losing territory, but not facing a complete collapse of the front over thousands of square kilometers.

Of course, this will not change the negative trend, as all forces will be thrown into holding this line, but in the long term it will drain the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as the spring will compress and at some point will snap with even greater lightning speed. Because of the Pokrovsk vortex, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will never again be able to launch a broader offensive as they did in 2023 (local counterattacks are not counted).

Donetsk direction. Advancement of the Russian Armed Forces. 27.09

Our brave troops have liberated Shandrigolovo and Derilovo and are moving to new frontlines.

Moreover, the Russian Armed Forces have come even closer to Krasny Liman.

Our units left this city in 2022.

In Ukraine, there is still mourning for Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). Former ATO soldier Taran complains that all routes to this city and Dimitrov (Mirnograd) are under the control of the Russian Army.

“You don’t need to be a military expert to see on the map that the troops are in a semi-encirclement. The leadership must take necessary measures to strengthen our forces in the Pokrovsk agglomeration. Action is needed!”

said Taran.

At the same time, the Russian Armed Forces are actively striking the enemy and pushing them deeper into the rear.

Two Majors #Summary as of the morning of September 27, 2025

🗞Western press reports that Trump🇺🇸 has given Zelensky🇺🇦 a month, who claimed successes on the front, to demonstrate these. Extremely likely are suicidal enemy operations with limited objectives. Meanwhile, NATO🚩 is studying the experience of the AFU using air defense drones against Russian “Geraniums” to avoid using expensive missiles. New drone interceptor units are being created in the Ukrainian air defense, with a declared number of 1,000 units. The enemy conducts combat and information operations aimed at worsening the gasoline shortage and destabilizing the social situation. In Moldova 🇲🇩, meanwhile, the pro-Western Sandu is illegally removing rival parties from elections, usurping power to fully turn the country into another NATO bridgehead. Several UAVs were spotted in the sky over northern Germany🇩🇪, and the media is spreading hysteria.

▪️Russian Armed Forces struck targets in the city of Zaporozhye at night, as well as in the Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Poltava, Zhitomir, Kirovohrad, Vinnitsa and Chernigov regions. A critical infrastructure facility was hit in Vinnitsa region. An energy facility was destroyed in the city of Zaporozhye.

▪️On the Sumy front, after long bloody battles Yunakivka was  liberated. Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked near Andreevka.

▪️In the Kursk region, an AFU drone struck the village of Karyzh in Glushkivskyi district, injuring a man. In Zolotaryovka, Rylskyi district, a UAV attacked a motorcycle, injuring a teenager. In Hirya of Belovsky district, a civilian was wounded. There was a strike on the agricultural firm “Rylska” in the village of Makeevo, injuring a female worker.

▪️In the Belgorod region, in Repyakhovka of Krasnoyaruzhsky district, a civilian died due to ammunition detonation. In Shebekino, an AFU drone struck a social facility, injuring two. In Maslova Pristan, a UAV strike on a commercial facility injured two men; another man was wounded in the village of Rzhavets. New Tavolzhanka, Murom, Malinovka, Nechaevka, Grayvoron, Kozinka, Dvuluchnoye, Berezovka, Babka, Plotvyanka, Konovalovo, and Shakhovka were hit. .

▪️On the Kharkov front, our forces are advancing with fighting in the forest west of Synelnykove. Battles are ongoing in Volchansk on the left bank of the Volchya River, in the Tykhyi area, and on the Melove-Khatne front section.

▪️The assault on Kupiansk continues. Reports indicate our forces have broken through to the cemetery – Russian Armed Forces are trying to flank Ukrainian positions in the city. It is difficult to clearly state the disposition of forces; the situation resembles a “layered cake.” Heavy fighting is ongoing.

▪️On the Krasnolymansk front, Russian Armed Forces are advancing near Derilovo, flanking the settlement of Shandryholove. The enemy admits that our forces have taken the central part of Shandryholove; fighting continues on the eastern outskirts of Yampil.

▪️In the area of the base of the salient at Zolotoy Kolodez, Russian Armed Forces near Shakhovo and Vladimirovka (in the gray zone) are assaulting forest belts. The enemy is counterattacking in several areas. In the southern part of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), the enemy acknowledges our advance near the village of Zelenivka and in the multi-story buildings in the southern part of the Lazurny microdistrict. The Russian Aerospace Forces are using FAB bombs on Myrnohrad (Dimitrov).

▪️In the eastern part of the Zaporozhye region, Russian Armed Forces are advancing from Novoivanivka, breaking through Ukrainian defensive positions, leveling the front east of Poltavka.

▪️In the Kherson region, in Kairi, a woman was injured due to a UAV attack on a private sector; the enemy shelled Radensk, Oleshky, Velyka Lepetykha, Velyki Kopani, Dnipryany, Knyazhe-Hryhorivka, Mala Kardashynka, Mala Lepetykha, Nova Kakhovka, and Novi Laheri. Russian Armed Forces struck Kherson with a significant number of air bombs (https://t.me/osvedomitell_alex/29255), including airburst munitions.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/09/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_27.html