The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on September 30 2025

Russia Threatens To Target US Tomahawk Specialists, Ukraine Joins Danish Counter-Drone Exercise

Trump, Vance, Kellogg test Putin’s restraint and Russia’s Red Line

Russia Surges Forward 48 km – 2,500 km² Captured, Ukraine in Total Disarray!

RUAF Capture Northern Flank of Siversk Through Siversky Donetsk River

Putin congratulated Russians on the Day of the Reunification of Donbass and Novorossiya with Russia:

Three years ago, in referendums in Donbass and Novorossiya, millions of our compatriots independently and freely determined their future, made a dream that they had lived with for many years a reality, made the most important, fateful decision – to be with their Motherland, with Russia, to return to the native family of which they have always been a part.

I know how difficult it is now for the residents of the liberated cities and towns. There are many truly acute, pressing problems. Among them are the primary, vital issues for every person such as reliable water supply, access to quality medicine, and so on. At the same time, it is necessary not only to restore what was destroyed during the hostilities but also to put in order the infrastructure that no one has properly maintained for decades.

Even Politico, known for its strong anti-Russian stance, published an article yesterday acknowledging a stark reality: the growing tensions between Brussels and Moscow risk provoking a “Franz Ferdinand moment,” a reference to the assassination that triggered World War I.

When the West began implementing the Eastern Partnership project, moving NATO eastward, orchestrating color revolutions in Ukraine, and advising, supporting, financing, and arming Russophobic forces inside Ukraine, it laid the groundwork for a military confrontation.

Russian historian Shishkin, in a lengthy interview with MK, delves into the reasons for Europe’s belligerence and its readiness to escalate the conflict, refusing to seek a peaceful resolution to the situation in Ukraine.

Shishkin argues that the “strategic defeat of Russia” is vital for Europe. Not for specific European politicians or specific European elites, but for Europe as a whole and for the major European powers. Only by pursuing Russia’s defeat would the EU have the opportunity to plunder its riches. The claim that Russia’s collapse is vital for Europe is not an invention; it is formulated in key European Union documents. He clearly states that the current conflict with Russia over Ukraine is existential for Europe. In other words, the question is like Hamlet: “to be or not to be.”

It’s written in black and white in all official documents and clearly recorded in the speeches of leading politicians.

What’s the reason?

Europe is well aware that, in modern geopolitical conditions, even large states like Germany, France, or Italy are incapable of playing a hegemonic role alone, and that role alone would grant the EU the “exorbitant privilege” of a rent-seeking hegemon.

The collapse of the Soviet Union gifted old Europe the enormous markets of Eastern Europe, the Balkans, and the former Soviet Union, and also provided Europe with a colossal amount of resources, not just energy, almost free of charge.

It was with this money that European unity was purchased.

The EU is now pursuing an escalation to continue expanding and thus save the house of cards from collapsing. Europeans have largely forgotten what a conflict with Russia brings. They seem to have lost the fear that had guaranteed peace for decades. But the new “Franz Ferdinand moment” will not only lead to the tragic annihilation of a generation of Europeans, it will make the entire continent uninhabitable for generations.

Zelensky on the fact that Europe, with the support of the US, must counter the threat from Russia:

It is difficult to speak unequivocally here. You have seen that there have already been certain signals in Estonia, Poland, Denmark, Norway, and Sweden. I am not talking about any specific or large-scale attack now — no. I am talking precisely about trends.

There is no smoke without fire. All these incidents represent risks. This is undoubtedly a violation of airspace, state borders, and international law. And it is necessary to respond to this not from the position of which country was attacked, but from the position that Europe is facing potential aggressive actions from Russia.

Tusk has gone mad. He is convincing the Poles that the war in Ukraine is their war, and that Russia must suffer defeat in it for the sake of future generations worldwide.

‘I want my compatriots to hear these words. The war in Ukraine is our war. We often hear voices here in Warsaw and everywhere on Earth saying: ‘No, this is not our war, it should not concern us, let them kill each other or solve their problems, it does not concern us, we do not want to pay, we do not want to sacrifice our money, our time, and especially the lives of our soldiers.’

If we lose this war, the consequences will affect not only our generation but also future generations. In Poland, across Europe, in the USA, and worldwide.’

Another blunder by Zelensky in a media case, pushed on him by idiots from his team.

Let’s explain why.

Zelensky called Lukashenko and Putin old men — this was done for a catchy “wordplay,” to try to push another statement by Ze onto the international stage, so that it would be written about, since his constant appeals are now almost of no interest to anyone. Situationally it was a plus, but strategically no, because the president of Ukraine himself flies to “pay respects” to old men like Trump, Merz, and Ursula. They are all practically old men.

Putin is 72, Lukashenko 71, Trump 79, Merz 69, Ursula 66 years old.

When you want to humiliate your opponents because of their age, but at the same time work for the same old men — it looks stupid, but as we see, the office continues to pursue situational goals in all game cases, which ultimately leads to betrayal.

The protracted war will cause a black winter, and politicians and officials are already openly talking about it, but no one in the Cabinet is preparing for it.

Winter will be “fun” – the probability of a blackout in some regions is 90%, said MP Razumkov.

The cousin of the US Vice President, who fought on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, is announced as a speaker at the Security Forum in Warsaw.

According to the program, the discussion where Nate Vance is expected will take place on Tuesday. It is called “Hard Lessons from the Front: Reforming Ukraine’s Combat Potential.”

Nate Vance is presented as a “veteran of the war in Ukraine.” Additionally, he allegedly participated “in battles for Kupyansk, Artemivsk, Avdeevka, and Pokrovsk.”    Maybe the hard lesson is not to bring this guy to a battle, he 0 for 4.

‘The war in Ukraine will be decided on the battlefield because Rubio is not ready to accept Russia’s demands’ — American political scientist Mearsheimer.

‘The possibility of Ukraine becoming a NATO member is absolutely unacceptable for Russia. It is an existential threat. And Russia will not stop until Ukraine and the West are defeated, and until both sides recognize two facts: Ukraine must be a neutral state, Ukraine must be disarmed to a level where it does not pose an offensive threat to Russia. Until the West acknowledges this, all talk of ‘generous offers’ is meaningless. Rubio is like a ship passing by in the night. He and the Russians are simply on different planets. Russia has demands that Rubio is simply not ready to accept. Therefore, the war will be decided on the battlefield. Period. End of story.’

Kellogg stated that if American Tomahawk missiles get to Ukraine, they will change the course of the war. Another Nazi fairy tale about wunderwaffes

‘Tomahawk is a very modern US missile system, one of our advanced systems. The question of Tomahawk missiles for Ukraine was raised by President Zelensky at the UN General Assembly last week in New York during a conversation with President Trump. There has been no official comment yet — neither ‘yes, it will happen’ nor ‘no, it won’t’. Public reports simply confirm that such a request was made.

Naturally, this attracted the attention of the world press, as well as Russia, due to the capabilities and power of this weapons system. The system itself — for me, it is a game changer, meaning a system that changes the rules of the game, just because of how effective it is. Those who have seen its use in various conflicts understand this. And the final decision is made by Trump as the Commander-in-Chief. But, I think the most important thing in the news is that the Tomahawk system was requested, but there is no decision yet.’

There are no magic weapons system that wins wars. Ok, no magic conventional weapon that can wins wars.

While there is a shortage of manpower on the front, Bankova expanded the staff of the TCC with titushki in civilian clothes, who, in addition to salary, were also given exemptions and are ready to abuse ordinary people for this.

We have written about this many times before, but the main threat of unlimited mobilization is the increase in the number of service refusals, because when catching a thousand serfs, 500 immediately desert, and the rest replenish the army of slaves, which is unable to hold the lines. This is vividly demonstrated by the Pokrovska funnel, where tens of thousands are thrown in, but they run away and die in droves because they do not want to fight for Zelensky.

Our sources in the General Staff reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are facing major problems in Pokrovsk, fighting is already taking place in the city, and the enemy is cutting off the only supply road, which has long been under fire control. Syrsky is still holding the city, which is tactically encircled, field commanders consider the battles in the Pokrovsk pocket pointless, but the Commander-in-Chief refuses to withdraw units and sends new reserves.

The Russian army has already broken through to the center of Verbove, advancing on a wide front in the Dnepropetrovsk region

▪️In the Velykomykhailivka direction, Russian troops previously took Stepove and Kalinovske, breaking through from the east to the settlement of Verbove

▪️Our assault troops have advanced more than 3 km deep and have already occupied half of the village of Verbove, now advancing in its central part.

▪️The Russian army also advanced north of Berezove and Ternove along the forest belts and in the southern part of the ravine leading to Sosnovka.

▪️North of the Russian Armed Forces, the assault on Novohryhorivka in the Zaporozhye region continues.

❗️The total area of Russian troop advancement is about 20 km², acknowledged even by enemy analysts.

The Russian Army has liberated Severesk Maly in the DPR

 - Assault troops of the 7th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the “Southern” group of forces conducted a clearing of the settlement, leaving the enemy no chance.

 - Active work was carried out in the enemy’s close rear. Strike UAV operators skillfully suppressed any attempts by the enemy to organize supply or bring personnel to the positions.

Two Majors #Summary as of the morning of September 30, 2025

🗞The Prime Minister of Poland🇵🇱 Tusk said that the war in Ukraine🇺🇦 is “our [Poles'] war” and reproached those who say “we don’t want to pay, we don’t want to sacrifice either our money or, even more so, the lives of our soldiers.” Ukraine nominated Trump🇺🇸 for the Nobel Peace Prize, and the Pentagon demanded that the American defense industry increase production of 12 key types of weapons by two to four times, including missiles for the Patriot air defense system. In Romania🇷🇴, the media hysteria about “Russian drones” continued with reports of found UAV debris. Trump’s advisor Kellogg stated that the war in Ukraine could escalate into a global conflict.

▪️ In the Rostov region, UAVs were shot down in the Tarasovsky, Millerovsky, Kamensky, Chertkovsky, and Sholokhovsky districts. UAV activity was reported over Volgograd. Several drones crashed in the Belgorod region, causing damage to farm buildings and a private house.

▪️ Russian Armed Forces struck with “Geraniums” in Pavlograd of Dnepropetrovsk region, Chernigov, Nikolaev, and Vinnitsa regions. Individual UAVs were reported over the capital region of the enemy.

▪️ On the Sumy direction, our forces are advancing in the forest plantations near the liberated Yunakovka. The enemy conducted three unsuccessful counterattacks near Konstantinovka, Kondratovka, and Alekseevka.

▪️ The intensity of AFU strikes on the Belgorod region does not decrease. A man was injured as a result of a drone attack on a cargo truck near the village of Pervoe Tseplyaevo. In the village of Chervona Dibrovka, a drone hit a cargo truck on the premises of a commercial facility, injuring three. In the area of the village of Kazinka in the Valuysky district, a Ukrainian drone attacked a passenger car, injuring two people. New Tavolzhanka, Ziborovka, Zozuli, Berezovka, and Volokonovka are under attack.

▪️ On the Kharkov direction, the “North” group of forces completed the destruction of encircled Ukrainian units in the forest west of Synelnykove, capturing three enemy strongpoints. Fierce fighting continues in Volchansk on the left bank of the Volchya River.

▪️ On the Krasnoliman direction, Shandrigolovo and Kirovsk (Zarechnoye) were liberated.

▪️ On the Konstantinovka direction, Russian Armed Forces are advancing north of Poltavka.

▪️ On the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk direction), in the area of the Dobropol salient, our forces are conducting assault operations towards Shakhovo and Sofievka from the side of Poltavka and towards Vladimirovka (which is still not under Russian control).

▪️ On the Dnepropetrovsk direction, the “East” group of forces broke through a 7 km deep salient towards Verbove, expanding the wedge at its base (near Berezove).

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, fierce fighting continues near Stepnogorsk. Units of the Russian Airborne Forces (https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/34352) are conducting assault operations in small groups; Ukrainian forces are trying to hold defensive lines with drones and artillery, with occasional enemy air activity.

▪️ On the Kherson direction, Russian Armed Forces continue to block all logistics on the Korablev Island, having taken fire control over the remains of the railway bridge (the road bridge was previously destroyed) and the barges used by Ukrainian forces as pontoons.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/09/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_30.html