The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 01 2025

Russia CAN’T STOP: Storm Hits Siversk, Critical Advances In Vyimka and Rudnik

Russian Forces Capture Entire Northern Flank of Siversk

While Trump demands that the President’s Office negotiate with the Kremlin on the peace track, the US does not impose sanctions but only promises weapons that the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot use. At the same time, Trump shifted all responsibility for what is happening onto Europe, removing from himself the entire negative aftermath of the events in Ukraine.

RS: The idea of sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine is “empty words, detached from military realities”

US Vice President Vance stated on September 28 that the US is discussing the possibility of supplying Kyiv with Tomahawk cruise missiles, but the final decision remains with Trump. Military analyst Jennifer Kavanagh of the Responsible Statecraft portal considers such “unrealistic and counterproductive” threats to be “a manifestation of desperation.” According to the expert, they “will provoke more laughter than fear in the Kremlin.”

As Kavanagh writes, Ukraine will not be able to use Tomahawks because it does not possess any of the three possible launch platforms for these missiles – destroyers, submarines, or the Typhon ground system – and “has virtually no chance of obtaining them in the near or medium term.” Even if Washington decided to sell Kyiv Typhon systems, which Kavanagh calls unlikely given that the US has only two operational batteries, they “would not last long on the battlefield” due to their large size and vulnerability to Russian air strikes.

Moreover, the Tomahawks themselves are a scarce and quite expensive munition, and their production takes about two years, the commentator emphasizes. American stockpiles are estimated at less than 4,000 missiles with production of fewer than 200 units per year. The Pentagon sells this weapon only to its closest allies and is unlikely to want to share it with Ukraine, especially considering the risk of sensitive technology falling into Russian hands, the article states.

Lavrov – on the delivery of American “Tomahawk” missiles to Ukraine:

I think this is primarily the result of pressure from Europe on Washington, and Washington wants to show that it takes into account the opinion of its allies. I don’t think we are already dealing with a made decision. The Americans do not supply “Tomahawks” to everyone. Among Europeans, if I’m not mistaken, to Spain and the Netherlands. They are somewhat cautious with the others. And if they believe that Ukraine is a responsible state that will use them responsibly, that would be surprising to me.  

“EU leaders are aiming to reshape the Union under Putin’s aggressive shadow”: The war with Russia, which could start over anything, is the main topic of the upcoming EU summit.

“The atmosphere around the meeting in Copenhagen is more tense than ever. Russian fighters violated NATO airspace, prompting both Trump and European leaders to publicly declare their readiness to shoot them down. And the very airport of the Danish capital, where dozens of heads of state and officials are to arrive, was paralyzed last week due to mysterious drones, which Danish authorities called a ‘hybrid attack.’

Yet this new, more dangerous phase of European politics threatens possible catastrophes. In private conversations, officials admit they fear the so-called ‘Franz Ferdinand moment’ — a sudden escalation that could drag the continent into war, much like how the assassination of the archduke in 1914 sparked the First World War.”

Our sources revealed that Andriy Yermak is negotiating with British intelligence about additional forms of European military involvement in the conflict in Ukraine. Since the beginning of the war, the President’s Office has considered scenarios for NATO’s involvement, but Poland has been the main opponent of such a strategy and has distanced itself as much as possible from this track, which forced Zelensky to reconsider the formats. Leaking information to the media about air defense over western Ukraine is one option, but not the main one for Kyiv; we need aviation and strikes on Russian territory. For this, Yermak wants to use Romania as a base for fighters and long-range missiles as a pressure factor on the Kremlin.

MI-6 has passed new intelligence data to the President’s Office that Russia has accumulated nearly 20,000 drones in warehouses, which are being prepared for the winter campaign in Ukraine. According to British intelligence, we should prepare for prolonged air attacks, as the enemy will change its strike tactics.

Colleagues, Bankova is not preparing for a “black winter” and blackout because it benefits them. We constantly get insider info about this. Moreover, they themselves unleashed infrastructure war 3.0 to provoke the Russians to hit even harder and faster the energy/oil/gas sector of Ukraine, which will of course lead to a sad outcome for the population, and Zelensky uses this for PR, as usual manipulatively telling that the Russians committed genocide against the Ukrainian people. Although he himself is striving for this. 

This scenario benefits him, and through it he wants to accomplish many tasks:

1. To get new loans from globalists/the West for the war, claiming it is against the bad Russians who are committing genocide. 

2. To scare the well-fed Europeans, saying look how we Ukrainians suffer, if you don’t give us money for the war, this awaits you in the war against the Russian Federation. Better give us money and we will fight.

3. To discredit the Russian Federation on the international stage. He hopes that all the press will again write one-sidedly his manipulative statements, blaming only the Russians for this.

4. To provoke Ukrainians (Ukrainian militants) to leave their cold apartments for heating centers and thus catch them, sending them to the meat grinder.

5. To try to restart the hatred case between Ukrainians and Russians to increase mobilization and justify the war. 

All this is done deliberately. They themselves evacuated all their relatives and bought expensive energy storage devices, etc. They will live in warmth and comfort while the whole country freezes in the dark, but of course they will shoot a dozen videos showing how they are with the people. 

Think about it!

Our source reports that the situation on the front for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is almost catastrophic, there are no positive results, soldiers are demoralized, the level of combat losses has increased, as have casualties.

Experts predict the fall of Severesk’s defense in October, which will give the Russian Armed Forces a huge boost and a rear base for UAV points (a large city is always a good place for hundreds of UAV groups, meaning they will quickly move further from there).

The Limansk direction is weakening. The Ukrainian counterattack on Zarechnoye has stalled. The city of Limansk may fall within the next 40-60 days. This will also give the Russians momentum in the offensive on Sloviansk, which they will try to encircle operationally/fire trap, as well as the entire Konstantinovka-Druzhkovka-Kramatorsk-Sloviansk arc. The main battle on this front section will be in 2026.

The Kupyansk direction is also bleak. Many units in the city areas have been encircled because Bankova did not give the order to retreat. Kupyansk will effectively fall soon. Problems have also arisen across the entire Kharkiv direction. But Zelensky wants to try to attack Belgorod, which causes confusion among all the military.

The Pokrovske direction, where the Pokrovska vortex is unfolding, into which Ze and Syrsky send thousands of Ukrainian soldiers daily, is also in a very difficult position. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine fail to achieve success in this area, it will be disastrous; the Russians will quickly advance to the last line of defense, which could collapse within days, potentially leading to chaos in defense and a complete collapse.

The Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk direction remains difficult for the Armed Forces of Ukraine; in fact, there is no line of defense there, and the Russians easily advance further, only large settlements delay the Russians, as the Ukrainian command uses them as their free fortifications.

The overall trend remains negative, as the Armed Forces of Ukraine are running out of resilience. A major front collapse is looming. The only question is when exactly it will happen and how extensive it will be.

Another front line has collapsed due to Syrsky’s decision to redeploy combat units to the Pokrovska cauldron. The enemy army has entrenched itself on the northern outskirts of Severesk (Seversk direction), reports a Ukrainian soldier with the call sign “Muchnoy”.

According to him, Russian troops have entrenched “in the part that locals call Severesk Maly/Verkhny Severesk, by the Seversky Donets river” (the Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have captured Severesk Maly).

“By visual control, they already have a bridgehead and seem to be preparing to shift pressure to the next phase — towards Dronovka,” notes “Muchnoy.”

Field commanders oppose the General Staff’s initiative to hold Pokrovska in tactical encirclement, pointing out the futility of such decisions, as losses among the Armed Forces of Ukraine are increasing and causing mass personnel shortages, but the Commander-in-Chief is carrying out the politicians’ decision.

the_military_analytics

The situation on the Dnipropetrovsk direction is rapidly changing in favor of the Russian forces. The Russian Armed Forces are exploiting the confusion and logistical vulnerability of Ukrainian units to advance offensives on several fronts simultaneously, preventing the Defense Forces from stabilizing the front.

The advance in the Stepove area remains particularly important. After its capture, Russian units continued their offensive movement westward, effectively creating a deep wedge in the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ battle lines, which could potentially lead to the operational encirclement of several Ukrainian units.

In the Verbove area, the enemy is also making progress — Ukrainian forces have been pushed back to the western part of the village. Despite attempts by Ukrainian UAV operators to hold back the offensive, they were unable to change the situation in their favor. Active fighting continues in the south for Novohryhorivka — capturing this settlement will open the way for the Russians to advance on Uspenivka from multiple directions, threatening the destruction of the Ukrainian defensive line in this section of the front.

According to the Deep State project, the Russian army has also taken the settlement of Poltavka.

If the pace of the offensive continues, Russian troops will reach Vyshneve, which will allow them to cut the logistical connections of Ukrainian forces on the left bank of the Yanchur River. Moreover, advancing along the river to the north will enable them to bring the R-85 highway — a key supply route for the Defense Forces in Pokrovske and Huliaipole — under fire control.

As we can see, not only near Pokrovsk, where the main Ukrainian forces are concentrated, the situation is becoming critical (and there the fighting is already in the city, the enemy is cutting off the only supply road, which has long been under fire control, causing Ukrainian servicemen to openly speak of the “Pokrovsk funnel,” implying another “meat grinder” allowed by Syrskyi).

The Russian Armed Forces’ offensive not only changes the tactical situation in specific areas but also creates conditions for strategic pressure on the Ukrainian defense along the entire front line. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have less and less room to withdraw forces and regroup, making them vulnerable to encirclement and subsequent defeat.

Two Majors #Summary as of October 1, 2025

🗞 At a gathering of American🇺🇸 generals, the US Secretary of War and Trump gave them a clear task: prepare for war. The redeployment of US military aviation to the Middle East is being recorded. The Pentagon signed a $5 billion contract for interceptor drones, having studied the experience of the special military operation. In Europe 🇪🇺, a collective defense is being created against the so-called “Russian drones,” which are only a pretext for concentrating NATO infrastructure on the eastern flank. The former Secretary General NATO🚩 directly called to inflate military budgets at the expense of European social programs, and the former UK Secretary of Defense 🇬🇧 (the country oversees the Main Intelligence Directorate and airborne operations) at the Warsaw Security Forum called to make Crimea “uninhabitable” and help Kiev with “long-range capabilities.”

▪️ The Russian Armed Forces yesterday afternoon carried out a series of demonstrative strikes on Dnepropetrovsk (a call center of scammers was hit) and Kharkov (strikes continued all night, Thermal Power Plant-5 was hit). In the Chernigov region, railway infrastructure and a substation in the settlement of Nosivka were hit. Early in the morning, reports came of explosions in the Kiev region.

▪️ In the Rostov region, drones were shot down in the Verkhnyedonsk, Millerovo, and Sholokhov districts. Due to the UAV crash at an industrial site in the Verkhnyedonsk district, a building roof and grass in a field caught fire. Several villages in the Verkhnyedonsk and Sholokhov districts were left without power.

▪️ On the Sumy direction, the enemy twice attempted counterattacks in the areas of Konstantinivka and Andreevka. Reports indicate an activation of our naval infantry near Kondrativka.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, in the village of Hlotove, a civilian stepped on an explosive device and was injured. Shebekino, Hlotove, Hora-Podol, Holovchyno, Leonivka, Berezivka, Serhiivka, and Hrushivka came under fire.

▪️ On the Kharkov direction, west of the Northern Group of Forces, Synelnykove occupied the position and two enemy strongpoints. In Volchansk on the left bank of the Volchya River, our assault troops are advancing through the remains of the built-up area.

▪️ Fighting continues in Kupyansk, our forces are assaulting the built-up area from the north. Kupyansk has been closed by Ukrainian authorities for entry to all except AFU personnel for several days.

▪️ On the Krasnolymansk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are trying to encircle Lyman from the flanks, advancing from the liberated Shandryholove through Derylove to Drobysheve from the north; from the south, heavy fighting is reported in Yampil.

▪️ On the Seversk direction, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported success in the settlement of Seversk Malyy (known online as Rudnyk), with battles already at the approaches to Dronivka.

▪️ On the left flank of the Konstantynivka direction, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing north of Poltavka. On the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) direction, strikes on Hryshyne (https://t.me/dva_majors/80387) northwest of Pokrovsk are noted: our forces are breaking the logistics of the AFU along the remaining road.

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, no significant changes on the Orikhiv direction; fighting continues for Stepnohirsk.

▪️ On the Kherson direction, the Russian Armed Forces are working with aviation and artillery on the right bank. Yesterday, strikes were reported on Kherson, Lvov, and Tyahynka.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on.html